New lockdown in England, including school closures, announced by Johnson, 4/1/21

[MikeWM]

As for the long term implications, I personally think the worries about the impact on society as a whole of Covid measures are overstated. There is plenty of historical record of societies rebounding quite well after severe restrictions imposed for a crisis have been relaxed; I see no particular reason why Covid should be different. That I believe this is not intended to diminish the problems Covid restrictions have caused to many due to the medical, psychological or economic impacts of Covid.

Economic concerns aside, what most concerns me is the prolonged psychological programming that we've all been subjected to - to the effect that every other human being we encounter is a direct threat to our life and the lives of our family, merely by existing normally. This has been going on for long enough now that it will have been normalised in the minds of many. It is a particularly pernicious message. Sadly, I'm not convinced that will be easily undone.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

Cases going down
People in hospital going down
Deaths going down
Vaccinations going up

But the message will be .It's to early to ease any restrictions All your life can consist of is going to work then sitting at home. If you say otherwise you will be taken to a covid patient and told to look them in the eye whilst explaining that your a granny killer.

spot on BoJo says its all very alarming still but Whitty had to admit cases are falling, hospitalisations down noticeable even deaths going in the right direction but then there was but with him justifying why they have to vaccinate everyone over the age of 50 because they are the ones causing the NHS problems!

Good public question about whether people who've had both doses can intermix BoJo basically talked around it said no time soon. Whitty then justifies it to say we don't know about transmission yet!

 

[joncombe]

Sounds like the goal posts are being moved yet again. So once we vaccinate those over 70 we will greatly reduce deaths, but not hospital admissions. That won't happen until all the over 50s are vaccinated. So let me guess, we can't release any restrictions until over 50s vaccinated. Which I don't think a timeline has yet been set out for?

To quote

Whitty notes that it shows that once the UK has vaccinated those aged 70 and above, plus those who care for them, we should significantly reduce the number of deaths, but "will reduce by a smaller number the number of people going into hospital".

He adds that the slide then shows: "If we then vaccinate all the way down to people over 50, you then get through virtually all the people who have a high chance of dying and importantly around 80% of all those who go into hospital."

 

[Yew]

Sounds like the goal posts are being moved yet again. So once we vaccinate those over 70 we will greatly reduce deaths, but not hospital admissions. That won't happen until all the over 50s are vaccinated. So let me guess, we can't release any restrictions until over 50s vaccinated. Which I don't think a timeline has yet been set out for?

To quote

If that's the case, they should have adjusted the vaccination programme to account for it.

 

[joncombe]

I'm unsure why anyone here continues to put themselves through watching these pressers. Why do you do it? It's like some sort of torture and imo utterly worth avoiding for the sake of good mental health.

How else do you know that you have suddenly started breaking the law because it's suddenly been changed? We are in a dictatorship now. Boris, Matt, Priti etc speak we must all instantly obey our glorious leaders.

 

[6862]

Sounds like the goal posts are being moved yet again. So once we vaccinate those over 70 we will greatly reduce deaths, but not hospital admissions. That won't happen until all the over 50s are vaccinated. So let me guess, we can't release any restrictions until over 50s vaccinated. Which I don't think a timeline has yet been set out for?

And then 'long Covid' will be back as the reason to keep restrictions until the over 40s have been vaccinated, then the over 30s, then the over 20s, then the over 10s, then the over 0s, then the over negative ages. I think we can clearly see that they will keep those goalposts moving so they can keep the restrictions as long as possible.

How else do you know that you have suddenly started breaking the law because it's suddenly been changed? We are in a dictatorship now. Boris, Matt, Priti etc speak we must all instantly obey our glorious leaders.

I agree, I don't watch the actual press conferences but I do pay attention to the key messages, as if we want to stay on the right side of Our Magnificent Leader Boris it's important to be up to date with his latest decrees.

 

[Freightmaster]

I don't think he actually said that.

Maybe not in so many words:

Covid: Contagion film shows lessons around vaccine supply - Hancock

The 2011 Hollywood movie looks at what would happen in the event of a virus spreading around the world.

www.bbc.co.uk

...but is it appropriate to mention it at all?





MARK

 

[nlogax]

I agree, I don't watch the actual press conferences but I do pay attention to the key messages, as if we want to stay on the right side of Our Magnificent Leader Boris it's important to be up to date with his latest decrees.

Watching the actual news is a great filter for all the political posturing done at these things. I'd just like some facts. Ain't too much to ask.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

If that's the case, they should have adjusted the vaccination programme to account for it.

There quoting 90% of over 75's now received first dose so at current rates jabbers will outperform there deadline for groups 1-4 and as long as vaccine supplies aren't hindered they will get to the over 50's quicker and thats good as they will have start picking up second jabs soon.

There running out of excuses to hold restrictions at this level for so long but no one is putting pressure on them as CRG have backed off and now support measures till April. Even out stalwart Swayne has now been suppressed.

 

[HSTEd]

Sounds like the goal posts are being moved yet again. So once we vaccinate those over 70 we will greatly reduce deaths, but not hospital admissions. That won't happen until all the over 50s are vaccinated. So let me guess, we can't release any restrictions until over 50s vaccinated. Which I don't think a timeline has yet been set out for?

Well fairly typical.
Did you ever think Whitty and Valance werre going to surrender their quasi dictatorial power?

 

[duncanp]

Sounds like the goal posts are being moved yet again. So once we vaccinate those over 70 we will greatly reduce deaths, but not hospital admissions. That won't happen until all the over 50s are vaccinated. So let me guess, we can't release any restrictions until over 50s vaccinated. Which I don't think a timeline has yet been set out for?

To quote

There are about 16.4 million people in priority groups 5 - 9, which are:-

Group 5 - Everyone Aged 65 and over
Group 6 - Aged 16 - 64 with an underlying health condition
Group 7 - Aged 60 - 64
Group 8 - Aged 55 - 59
Group 9 - Aged 50 - 54

At the rate of 400,000 vaccinations per day, which is not unreasonable given current figures, it would take 41 days to do everyone in these groups.

That would take us to 29th March if we start on 16th February, the day after the target date for completing groups 1 -4.

Even if the target of 400,000 vaccinations per day is not achieved, we should have vaccinated the vast majority of over 50s by the end of March.

So everything points to the first major releasing of restrictions in the second half of March, possibly on the anniversary of the first lockdown on the 23rd. You can speculate about what this might be, but I would suspect that it would include reopening non essential shops and leisure centres, plus some minor relaxation in household mixing indoors.

If it turns out that schools reopen on 8th March, you might get some minor relaxation of the restrictions for everyone else, such as replacing the "stay at home" message with "stay local", rather like when they introduced Stay Alert, Control The Virus, Save Lives instead of Stay At Home, Protect The NHS. Save Lives in about May last year. You could also see pubs allowed to serve takeaway alcohol, with restrictions.

I would expect hospitality to reopen some time in April, probably midweek so that everyone doesn't try to pile into the pub on the first day.

 

[brad465]

There quoting 90% of over 75's now received first dose so at current rates jabbers will outperform there deadline for groups 1-4 and as long as vaccine supplies aren't hindered they will get to the over 50's quicker and thats good as they will have start picking up second jabs soon.

There running out of excuses to hold restrictions at this level for so long but no one is putting pressure on them as CRG have backed off and now support measures till April. Even out stalwart Swayne has now been suppressed.

I can understand why Swayne may have been suppressed given the hot water he landed in with a particular comment, but Mark Harper is demanding schools reopen earlier than the 8th March, having seen Scotland announce some reopening from after February half term.

 

[Wychwood93]

There quoting 90% of over 75's now received first dose so at current rates jabbers will outperform there deadline for groups 1-4 and as long as vaccine supplies aren't hindered they will get to the over 50's quicker and thats good as they will have start picking up second jabs soon.

There running out of excuses to hold restrictions at this level for so long but no one is putting pressure on them as CRG have backed off and now support measures till April. Even out stalwart Swayne has now been suppressed.

A good friend of ours, who turned 66 on Monday, has had his letter for vaccination and will be done tomorrow. He is nothing other than cheerful, sociable and a thoroughly good chap - so group 5, which is also my group, has started. In the BCP (Bournemouth, Christchurch, Poole) area. Perhaps when a particular GP, vaccination site etc. runs out of over 70's and the vulnerable just heads down to group 5? Anyone else thoughts on this?

 

[Yew]

So everything points to the first major releasing of restrictions in the second half of March, possibly on the anniversary of the first lockdown on the 23rd. You can speculate about what this might be, but I would suspect that it would include reopening non essential shops and leisure centres, plus some minor relaxation in household mixing indoors.

If it turns out that schools reopen on 8th March, you might get some minor relaxation of the restrictions for everyone else, such as replacing the "stay at home" message with "stay local", rather like when they introduced Stay Alert, Control The Virus, Save Lives instead of Stay At Home, Protect The NHS. Save Lives in about May last year. You could also see pubs allowed to serve takeaway alcohol, with restrictions.

I would expect hospitality to reopen some time in April, probably midweek so that everyone doesn't try to pile into the pub on the first day.

We should be looking at much minimal release this month, after groups 1-4, then almost total release after groups 1-9 have been vaccinated.

 

[DB]

They would be doing far better to educate people on what measures are actually effective and what the hazards are should they find themselves in a situation where they’re actually exposed to COVID. There’s for example been little focus on what measures to take to reduce risk of in-household transmission, beyond “open your windows”. Ditto all the fuss about masks, yet most people fail to use them correctly.

But that would by implication involve admitting that some measures (masks, one-way systems, banning outdoor sports, etc) have no evidence for making any difference - and they never admit to any measures being pointless...

 

[STINT47]

If restrictions are going g to stay for months what happens when some parts of the population have had both doses of the vaccine.

Both my grandparents will get it and as I'm diabetic I will get it long before other people of my age. Can I then go back to visiting my grandparents as after both doses we are as safe as we are going to get?

And if we do start mixing what sort of message does that send to youngsters who still cannot mix but have made large sacrifices for the vulnrable?

It's all a bit of a nightmare

 

[Ediswan]

Perhaps when a particular GP, vaccination site etc. runs out of over 70's and the vulnerable just heads down to group 5? Anyone else thoughts on this?

I believe that is exactly what happens. Vaccination distribution will not be perfect. Wasting doses would not do anybody any favours. If it comes to it, better to vaccinate a random passer-by than waste a dose. There was a BBC News article a few days ago but I can't find it now. That mentioned a US centre where the expected patients were unable to get there due to snow. The staff went out and vaccinated the occupants of the cars stuck in the snow.

 

[35B]

Economic concerns aside, what most concerns me is the prolonged psychological programming that we've all been subjected to - to the effect that every other human being we encounter is a direct threat to our life and the lives of our family, merely by existing normally. This has been going on for long enough now that it will have been normalised in the minds of many. It is a particularly pernicious message. Sadly, I'm not convinced that will be easily undone.

It may not, though my own instinct is that the damage was done when that message was sent out in the first place, not by normalisation of distancing practices; when I observe people and their distancing behaviours, I most often see learned behaviours which form a discipline, not wholesale reprogramming of the sort you suggest. I also believe homo sapiens is rather more robust and adaptable than we often give ourselves credit for.

 

[Mag_seven]

Perhaps when a particular GP, vaccination site etc. runs out of over 70's and the vulnerable just heads down to group 5? Anyone else thoughts on this?

There was a suggestion that once certain areas had vaccinated groups 1 to 4 they should wait for the rest of the country to catch up. I don't believe that is a correct policy. They should proceed on and start on groups 5 to 8 immediately. If other areas are slow in vaccinating groups 1 to 4 then more resource should be sent to them!

 

[Freightmaster]

There was a suggestion that once certain areas had vaccinated groups 1 to 4 they should wait for the rest of the country to catch up. I don't believe that is a correct policy. They should proceed on and start on groups 5 to 8 immediately. If other areas are slow in vaccinating groups 1 to 4 then more resource should be sent to them!

Absolutely!

To maximise 'throughput', they should do something similar to the contemporary practice of boarding planes by row number,
where the next boarding group is called to the gate while the last few passengers in the previous group are still being processed.




MARK

 

[XAM2175]

Did you ever think Whitty and Valance werre going to surrender their quasi dictatorial power?

They only have as much "power" as Johnson and his cabinet let them have.

 

[6862]

They only have as much "power" as Johnson and his cabinet let them have.

I'm not sure that's true any more. I think the relationship is actually the reverse, with Whitty and Valance holding Boris to ransom - knowing that he can't be seen to stop 'following the science'.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

There was a suggestion that once certain areas had vaccinated groups 1 to 4 they should wait for the rest of the country to catch up. I don't believe that is a correct policy. They should proceed on and start on groups 5 to 8 immediately. If other areas are slow in vaccinating groups 1 to 4 then more resource should be sent to them!

BoJo was cagey on the target for groups 5-8 earlier and said he will say more on 15th Feb on the target date for first dose for these groups.

I'm not sure that's true any more. I think the relationship is actually the reverse, with Whitty and Valance holding Boris to ransom - knowing that he can't be seen to stop 'following the science'.

Tonight he as good as said it was safe for primary schools to return but that it was a political decision so I feel he is pretty clever he puts the facts out there without directly getting involved with the politics of it.

 

[david1212]

A new B&M Bargains store opened recently on Newport Road. Local Facebook group is full of people moaning about how full it was. Are these people genuinely too thick to understand the irony of going to a store on its opening day and then complain about lots of other people doing the same?

Likewise last year those who travelled 100+ miles to Bournemouth, Durdle Door etc and were astounded how many others were also there. Come April if not sooner on dry, bright and warm days regardless of whatever restrictions are in place this will inevitably be repeated.

 

[Richard Scott]

A new B&M Bargains store opened recently on Newport Road. Local Facebook group is full of people moaning about how full it was. Are these people genuinely too thick to understand the irony of going to a store on its opening day and then complain about lots of other people doing the same?

Simple answer, yes. They're also selfish, they want to go but don't want anyone else to be allowed.

 

[Bantamzen]

Its been brought recently in a conversation, but I thought it was worth sharing here too. It seems the Chancellor is starting to make some unhappy noises at No.11, accusing scientists (note scientists, not his fellow cabinet members) of moving the goalposts & not allowing him to kickstart the economy. I've said for some time that Sunak, The Treasury & indeed many parts of Whitehall would not be happy about the ongoing restrictions, and that eventually the cost would cause the unrest behind closed doors to bubble over. The Telegraph covers this on it's front page today.

Also in the Telegraph was this opinion piece (with thanks to @RomeoCharlie71 for copying the original text from the website)

Here's how to get Britain up and running by June

Once the elderly and vulnerable have been vaccinated, the Government can begin to restore our sorely missed liberties

www.telegraph.co.uk

The relaxation of restrictions as the pandemic draws to a close is not something we can leave to scientific experts. Opening up society will inevitably lead to additional deaths. There is an inescapable trade-off between better living – being able to do more, and eventually all, of those fun and fulfilling things we are used to – and deaths. That trade-off cannot be made for us by experts. Ultimately we, as a democratic society, must decide.

In about a fortnight, Boris Johnson and his team will be making decisions on what he calls a “roadmap” for that relaxation. I want to set out a such a roadmap. Obviously in two weeks’ time Boris and his team will have more information than I have now. The pandemic is fast-moving and news, both good and bad, can change things quickly. But we need to have a political debate in the run-up to Boris’s decision to help us come to a view as to what is best. So we’ll have to make do with the information we have today.

The situation as it stands is as follows. Cases are currently falling at 25-30 per cent per week. At that rate, by March 8 there will be around 4,000-5,500 cases per day. That would be the lowest since mid-September. The main threat to this estimate is on the downside – that is to say, cases might drop more rapidly. The reason they may drop more rapidly is that, as the vaccination programme expands, it may reduce transmission and cause cases to fall even faster.

The vaccination programme is proceeding very well, and is likely to exceed the Government’s target of vaccinating the first four key categories by February 15. Indeed, people in their 60s are already being offered vaccination dates. Vaccinating those first four categories removes the vast majority of the risk of death. The Cambridge MRC model used by Public Health England gives infection fatality rates (IFRs) and attack rates (percentages infected) by age group. One can use these – very straightforwardly, no fancy models required – to derive the implications of vaccination for the IFR.

If we assume the vaccines remove 90 per cent of the risk of death (in studies they remove nearly 100 per cent for those that take them, but perhaps not quite everyone will be vaccinated and perhaps they will not be quite that perfect in practice), vaccinating the over-70s alone cuts the IFR from 0.74 per cent to 0.15-0.19 per cent (the range reflecting precisely which virus variant you get). Once the vaccination programme has reached all the over-60s, that IFR falls to 0.12-0.15 per cent.

Allowing three weeks from vaccination for the disease-reducing effect to kick in fully, that means that those vaccinated by February 15 should be protected by March 8. A question we must ask ourselves as a society is: if a disease had arrived in March 2020 with an IFR of 0.12-0.19, would we have ever contemplated lockdowns, long-term social distancing or the other measures we have enacted?

The answer must be no. So once the elderly and vulnerable have been vaccinated – with a bit of a hedge around them (vaccinating those in their 60s) and a broader programme offering vaccines to all adults continuing apace – we must start to relax.

Such relaxation can be cautious and gradual, of course. We wouldn’t want to discover that the vaccines don’t work as well as hoped only after we have allowed many more people to die. I propose something like the following.

In late February, some symbolic relaxation to indicate intent, such as allowing more outdoor recreation. From March 8 open schools and shift other restrictions to the equivalent of the old Tier 3. From April 6 (after Easter – we want no repeat of the Christmas infection surge), shift to an equivalent to old Tier 2 (perhaps with Tier 1 in some regions if their infection rates are very low). From May 4 shift to old Tier 1 (with perhaps Tier 0 in some regions). From May 31 all domestic restrictions go (but with heavy travel restrictions maintained until we are sure of the status of vaccine-resistant variants).

Such a schedule may involve some further spread of the virus. But provided the IFR is as low as hoped, this should be acceptable. We should not be seeking to wait until there are no deaths at all before releasing our society. Sixty-eight million people truly living is more important than a few thousand lost lives – a trade-off we make all the time with diseases. That doubtless sounds harsh. But it is no less true and must be accepted – and form the basis of politicians' decisions.

There are, of course, those that say we must stay locked down for another year to attempt to eliminate the risk of vaccine-resistant mutations. I’m afraid that we cannot stop 68 million people from living full lives for another year on the basis of potential risks. If vaccine-resistant variants emerge and the jabs do not prevent serious disease and death from them, we will then need to develop new vaccines . One step at a time.

For now, the next step – once the vaccination of the elderly and vulnerable is complete – must be to open up our society and live once again.

Personally I would go further than what is suggested here. We should be moving to a T3/T2 scenario as quickly as possible once we have covered the vaccination priority groups 1-4, and have made inroads into the most vulnerable in subsequent groups. These tiers applied nationally should be moved through by the beginning of April, with a then move to T1 and subject to review remove all restrictions, including international travel by the beginning of May. I include travel in this because being one of the world leaders in vaccination programmes, we need to show the world confidence in what we are doing. Of course other countries may be less inclined to receive us, and that is their choice. But we need now to be bold, and show that we do actually have an end game and that we are prepared to move fairly quickly to it. Moving too slowly risks nervousness and could see even small increases in infection rates triggering yet more lockdown scenarios.

 

[joncombe]

Encouraging to see that in the Telegraph. It even says moving the goalposts, exactly as we have been saying here. Glad someone in the Government has noticed.

 

[Bantamzen]

Encouraging to see that in the Telegraph. It even says moving the goalposts, exactly as we have been saying here. Glad someone in the Government has noticed.

I think they have been aware of it for some time, and perhaps for some cabinet members it has even been the preferred policy. However Sunak starting to break ranks a month before the budget is a significant development, and possibly the start of drip feeding the public the news that this and the Autumn review he's looking at will deliver.

 

[35B]

Encouraging to see that in the Telegraph. It even says moving the goalposts, exactly as we have been saying here. Glad someone in the Government has noticed.

Just an observation, that’s an opinion article by one of their columnists. An anti lockdown piece by an opponent of lockdowns in a paper that opposes is lockdowns is not much of a straw in the wind. Now, if that piece were in the Grauniad...

 

[duncanp]

Just an observation, that’s an opinion article by one of their columnists. An anti lockdown piece by an opponent of lockdowns in a paper that opposes is lockdowns is not much of a straw in the wind. Now, if that piece were in the Grauniad...

There are two articles in the Telegraph today. One is the opinion piece that you refer to, the other is a news item with the headline Rishi Sunak concerned scientists are moving goalposts

I have quoted some of this article below, but the key sentence is the one which begins "He has told allies...

In plain English this means that Rishi Sunak has leaked his concerns to the press in order to put pressure on the government to give more of a priority to the economy when plotting the roadmap out of lockdown.

It is significant that he says "Britain is approaching a "fat lady sings moment" when lockdown must be lifted, never to return", which means he is saying that the cost of all these lockdown measures is rapidly reaching a point where it cannot be ignored any longer.

Rishi Sunak fears scientific advisers are "moving the goalposts" on the requirements for ending lockdown amid growing frustration within the Government.

The Chancellor is concerned that scientists have replaced the original target of protecting the NHS and saving lives with a focus on getting case numbers down, potentially delaying the end of the restrictions. He has told allies that Britain is approaching a "fat lady sings moment" when lockdown must be lifted, never to return.