When will we see National Rail passenger numbers recover?

[Bald Rick]

Well its costing billions to keep the industry on self support so even marginal income is beneficial especially as we are running a lot less trains but still have the same resources from stock to traincrew to support. Car carriers maybe a challenge but given car manufacturing is well down as are imports im sure some suitable vehicles could be found.

Marginal income is welcome, so long as it is greater than the marginal cost. To get an idea of what is needed for that, have a look at the fares on the ‘Staycation Express’ on the S&C. Whilst that is a more expensive operation than many, it’s not that much more.

As for motorrail - there’s no market for it in this country at a fare that would cover marginal costs; those days have long gone. But let’s not make this yet another Motorail thread!

 

[HSTEd]

The only way to make workable car trains or lorry trains is to go to the Chunnel Model.

It might be worthwhile if we were building a rail system from scratch, but we aren't.

 

[yorksrob]

I cannot get excited about Whitby - unless the stock is found off peak from other places. My close family always found the bus from York a really good way to get there - as they have done a couple of times (I await a salvo of dissent)

(Incoming salvo)

I've got the bus to Whitby before (from Middlesborugh and Scarborough) but not a patch on the train (the one from Middlesborough made me a bit nautious).

Perhaps they could shove a 153 on the end !

 

[Bald Rick]

The only way to make workable car trains or lorry trains is to go to the Chunnel Model.

And that only works as there’s 21miles of water in the way. And it’s rather expensive for such a short trip!

 

[yorksrob]

Marginal income is welcome, so long as it is greater than the marginal cost. To get an idea of what is needed for that, have a look at the fares on the ‘Staycation Express’ on the S&C. Whilst that is a more expensive operation than many, it’s not that much more.

As for motorrail - there’s no market for it in this country at a fare that would cover marginal costs; those days have long gone. But let’s not make this yet another Motorail thread!

The Staycation express looked like a good enterprise (I look forward to trying it) but a lot of UK tourists use the scheduled passenger service on the S&C as well. The key will be not to leave it ridiculously late to reinstate the proper working timetable this time.

 

[43096]

It really isn’t. Commuters tend to use rail because the alternatives are pretty frightful, either in cost or time terms (or both).

To be more precise, they use rail because the alternatives are even more frightful than rail. As someone who was spending an hour each way on the train to work in an office job pre-pandemic, whilst there are advantages to being in the office, the effect of getting about 3hrs of my life back every day enabling me to get a better night's sleep and saving several £k in fares over the last almost 12 months is a pretty big incentive not to go back to working every day in the office. That our local TOC is foisting inner-suburban units on us in the coming months really isn't the way to go about getting people back on the trains.

 

[ChiefPlanner]

(Incoming salvo)

I've got the bus to Whitby before (from Middlesborugh and Scarborough) but not a patch on the train (the one from Middlesborough made me a bit nautious).

Perhaps they could shove a 153 on the end !

The ever benovelent ROSCO's could , I am sure oblige. If there is "spare" - on underused ex peak stock around , that would be an excellent answer. No great market now for 153's I think. This really old organisation called "BR" - used to sub out suburban stock from say the West Midlands to the Cambrian and the North Wales coast on high days and holidays , there was even a run of Pullman stock (spare at weekends) from Milton Keynes via Brum to Devon. OK we are not in the desperate scenario of 4SUB's to Brighton - but there is plenty of scope in the fleets , even now , to be flexible.

Apologies to Whitby of course .....

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

Marginal income is welcome, so long as it is greater than the marginal cost. To get an idea of what is needed for that, have a look at the fares on the ‘Staycation Express’ on the S&C. Whilst that is a more expensive operation than many, it’s not that much more.

As for motorrail - there’s no market for it in this country at a fare that would cover marginal costs; those days have long gone. But let’s not make this yet another Motorail thread!

@Bald Rick the motorail idea is bit of a jest to promote a wider discussion that industry needs to show flexibility and have some contingency plans to respond to traffic demands. Its proven that it can do that with the flexing of the timetable during lockdowns so I wouldn't want treasury constraining them. So I see this summer as an opportunity for our industry to showcase itself to those that want to use it and remind them of what is good about. Remember everyone who has good travelling experience is a potential advocate for the industry if the pressure comes from the treasury to cut costs.

 

[Ianno87]

@Bald Rick the motorail idea is bit of a jest to promote a wider discussion that industry needs to show flexibility and have some contingency plans to respond to traffic demands. Its proven that it can do that with the flexing of the timetable during lockdowns so I wouldn't want treasury constraining them. So I see this summer as an opportunity for our industry to showcase itself to those that want to use it and remind them of what is good about. Remember everyone who has good travelling experience is a potential advocate for the industry if the pressure comes from the treasury to cut costs.

I saw Scotland has postponed engineering works scheduled for the Easter period precisely to avoid impacting the potential return of leisure travel. A fine example of a flexible attitude.

 

[yorksrob]

The ever benovelent ROSCO's could , I am sure oblige. If there is "spare" - on underused ex peak stock around , that would be an excellent answer. No great market now for 153's I think. This really old organisation called "BR" - used to sub out suburban stock from say the West Midlands to the Cambrian and the North Wales coast on high days and holidays , there was even a run of Pullman stock (spare at weekends) from Milton Keynes via Brum to Devon. OK we are not in the desperate scenario of 4SUB's to Brighton - but there is plenty of scope in the fleets , even now , to be flexible.

Apologies to Whitby of course .....

Ironically these days, with the exception of the lack of toilet provision, a 455 would probably be as comfortable as a good chunk of the mainline stock to Brighton !

In terms of Whitby, the 153 could be the equivalent of the summer strengthening carriage at places such as Swanage etc.

 

[Bald Rick]

The Staycation express looked like a good enterprise (I look forward to trying it) but a lot of UK tourists use the scheduled passenger service on the S&C as well.

No doubt it has a certain market - my point was more that running a service using ‘time served’ rolling stock, on a leisure route, with open access track access charges (ie minimal) with fares twice (?) the normal level still barely covered its costs.

The key will be not to leave it ridiculously late to reinstate the proper working timetable this time.

Genuine question - what do you mean by that? Both the lateness and ‘proper’ WTT?

@Bald Rick the motorail idea is bit of a jest to promote a wider discussion that industry needs to show flexibility and have some contingency plans to respond to traffic demands. Its proven that it can do that with the flexing of the timetable during lockdowns so I wouldn't want treasury constraining them. So I see this summer as an opportunity for our industry to showcase itself to those that want to use it and remind them of what is good about. Remember everyone who has good travelling experience is a potential advocate for the industry if the pressure comes from the treasury to cut costs.

The ‘flexing’ of the timetable during the lockdowns - actually complete rewrites of most operators’ plans - have come at huge cost both in terms of efficiency (or lack thereof) and the sanity of the planners. Now I agree that throwing a couple of extras in won’t tax the planners too much, but where and when should they plan them? It’s simply to early to say.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 2 Feb 2021 ==

I saw Scotland has postponed engineering works scheduled for the Easter period precisely to avoid impacting the potential return of leisure travel. A fine example of a flexible attitude.

Up to a point. Carstairs is being rescheduled - I’ve heard a whisper that it will possibly be May / June. Transport Scotland will look bloody stupid if restrictions aren’t eased by Easter, but are by May, and the main line is then shut for a number of weekends just when us Sassenachs are looking to head north to climb some mountains.

 

[yorksrob]

No doubt it has a certain market - my point was more that running a service using ‘time served’ rolling stock, on a leisure route, with open access track access charges (ie minimal) with fares twice (?) the normal level still barely covered its costs.


Genuine question - what do you mean by that? Both the lateness and ‘proper’ WTT?

As long as it covered its costs, it was a good thing to get passengers back.

With regard to the lateness, this year it took until around September to get back a decent scheduled service on the S&C which was suitable for tourists, by which time the lockdown brigade was already banging its war drums.

 

[P Binnersley]

An interesting Post Covid Recovery presentation from the West Midlands Combined Authority.

Best case is recovery to -10% of pre-Covid, worst case -50%. Depends on how the economy and customer confidence pick-up.

Two interesting quotes:

"Covid-19 has broken travel habits of a generation"

“The risk of doing nothing will be a bigger threat to our network than the pandemic.”

 

[HSTEd]

I think this is a good time to take stock of what we want the railway of the future to be and put in train the necessary modifications.

Several years of reduced passenger use is a great time for rationalisations, improvements and modernisations.

 

[yorksrob]

I think this is a good time to take stock of what we want the railway of the future to be and put in train the necessary modifications.

Several years of reduced passenger use is a great time for rationalisations, improvements and modernisations.

How about a railway that enables people to do what they enjoy, rather than what they hate !

 

[Meglos]

My employer is based in a smallish Surrey town, and pre-Covid around 90% of our staff were office based working full time, 5 days per week (only our globetrotting engineers didn't work in the office). Many staff commuted to the office by rail.

The post-Covid plan as shared with staff by our Board of Directors, anticipates that most of our staff will only work in the office 1-2 days per week, and a hot-desking scheme will be introduced. Attending the office for more than 1-2 day per week is expected to be voluntary for the vast majority of staff.

If other companies follow similar practices, I can foresee that commuting by rail may not reach 2019 levels for many years.

With respect to International travel, Eurocontrol (provider of many Air Traffic Control enroute services across the whole of Europe) expect traffic levels to take to 2026 before flying in Europe returns to the 2019 level.

 

[HSTEd]

How about a railway that enables people to do what they enjoy, rather than what they hate !

A weekend only railway would be an interesting concept!

 

[Carlisle]

Actually, I think that one of the key things for wider economic/societal as well as rail recovery, will be to knock on the head any thought of internal restrictions next winter.

However any politician or Scientist may try to spin it , if we’re facing anything other than a few minor restrictions next winter, in truth the vaccination campaign will have failed & we’ll almost be back to square 1

 

[yorksrob]

A weekend only railway would be an interesting concept!

You need more annual leave !

However any politicians or Scientists may try to spin it , if we’re facing anything other than a few minor restrictions next winter, in truth the vaccination campaign will have failed & we’ll almost be back to square 1

Indeed.

 

[Bald Rick]

As long as it covered its costs, it was a good thing to get passengers back.

I agree, but my point is that to cover its costs, the Staycation had fares much higher than national rail fares. By implication, that means that similar national rail services don’t cover their marginal costs, and therefore putting them on loses the railway money.

With regard to the lateness, this year it took until around September to get back a decent scheduled service on the S&C which was suitable for tourists

Ah, I see what you mean, thank you.

If other companies follow similar practices, I can foresee that commuting by rail may not reach 2019 levels for many years.

Many other companies will. Many won’t of course - about half of regular commuters don’t work in an office. But we won’t be back at 2019 levels of commuting for a decade at least. (My opinion).

 

[Peregrine 4903]

I agree, but my point is that to cover its costs, the Staycation had fares much higher than national rail fares. By implication, that means that similar national rail services don’t cover their marginal costs, and therefore putting them on loses the railway money.




Ah, I see what you mean, thank you.



Many other companies will. Many won’t of course - about half of regular commuters don’t work in an office. But we won’t be back at 2029 levels of commuting for a decade at least. (My opinion).

It would be interesting to not be back at 2029 levels for a decade considering 2029 is in 8 years.

Just making a terrible joke.

 

[Bald Rick]

It would be interesting to not be back at 2029 levels for a decade considering 2029 is in 8 years.

Just making a terrible joke.

My bad typing (again)! Thank you for pointing it out - now corrected.

 

[Philip]

With talk of Summer Saturday specials to the seaside, I can see it now...Northern ditch the 331s on Summer Saturdays in favour of Jubilees or Coronations hauling mk1 coaches to Blackpool and back. It'd certainly help with the marketing side of things and Manchester Piccadilly would finally see steam trains again!

 

[Harold Hill]

It will be interesting to see how soon the over 60’s using a Senior Railcard, mainly for leisure travel, will return to train travel.

As soon as the requirement to wear a mask is dropped I'll be riding the rails again, yes, for leisure

 

[Jamesrob637]

Maybe this is the time to do engineering works in the week and leave the lines open at weekends given that many on here think that leisure travel will recover before business!

 

[Ianno87]

Maybe this is the time to do engineering works in the week and leave the lines open at weekends given that many on here think that leisure travel will recover before business!

That messes up freight, which is very much a Monday-Friday oriented business.

 

[Bikeman78]

Maybe this is the time to do engineering works in the week and leave the lines open at weekends given that many on here think that leisure travel will recover before business!

According to my mate who works in planning for Network Rail that is exactly what some TOCs are looking at doing. If leisure travel is the way forward, who wants to shut the railway over a bank holiday weekend? I take Ianno87's point but freight can often be diverted. Also it depends on the route in question. There isn't any freight on the Ebbw Vale line, for example, but lots of people come down by train to shop in Cardiff or go to Barry Island.

 

[Bald Rick]

According to my mate who works in planning for Network Rail that is exactly what some TOCs are looking at doing. If leisure travel is the way forward, who wants to shut the railway over a bank holiday weekend? I take Ianno87's point but freight can often be diverted. Also it depends on the route in question. There isn't any freight on the Ebbw Vale line, for example, but lots of people come down by train to shop in Cardiff or go to Barry Island.

To be fair, it’s been looked at for years - it helps to balance some resources and in theory major work could get a little cheaper. The TOCs wouldn’t touch it before (except in isolated examples), but now some are warming to it.