When will we see National Rail passenger numbers recover?

[Hadders]

In terms of enticing leisure passengers back to the railway don't expect reductions in fares but I suspect we'll see:

- Large advertising campaign
- Special offers like the old London Midland Great Escape
- Groupsave type offers, kids for £1 etc
- Offers on 1st class travel encouraging passengers to 'trade up'
- Advertising of cheap headline Advance fares. Seat sales etc.

I wouldn't expect any activity on Railcards but we have seen free 6 week Friends & Family giveaways in the past so this is always a possibility.

 

[yorksrob]

We shall see, though right from the start our signals from high up have been that they expect the Regional Railway to recover quickest and strongest (which doesn't help the bottom line that much!).

As long as it kills off Beeching II.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 2 Feb 2021 ==

In terms of enticing leisure passengers back to the railway don't expect reductions in fares but I suspect we'll see:

- Large advertising campaign
- Special offers like the old London Midland Great Escape
- Groupsave type offers, kids for £1 etc
- Offers on 1st class travel encouraging passengers to 'trade up'
- Advertising of cheap headline Advance fares. Seat sales etc.

I wouldn't expect any activity on Railcards but we have seen free 6 week Friends & Family giveaways in the past so this is always a possibility.

As long as it's not all the same people who already have discounts thrown at them.

 

[Hadders]

As long as it's not all the same people who already have discounts thrown at them.

As much as it pains me to say it people like you and me won't be specifically targeted for promotional activity as we'll travel anyway. No point in offering us discounted travel. We just need to be inventive and obtain discounted travel by knowing our way around the ticketing system

 

[yorksrob]

As much as it pains me to say it people like you and me won't be specifically targeted for promotional activity as we'll travel anyway. No point in offering us discounted travel. We just need to be inventive and obtain discounted travel by knowing our way around the ticketing system

Well yes and no.

I travel quite extensively on day trips, so short and medium distance journeys, this is true for me, anyway.

However, I've often thought of doing weekends away etc, however I just find that having to line up lots of split tickets is a barrier.

 

[ChrisC]

There is next to no chance of a major recovery of numbers by May.

I fully expect people to start travelling again when they are allowed to, but we might get back to, perhaps, 30-40% by May, and 60% of normal traffic in the summer at most. Obviously this will be variable by route and time of day / week - leisure routes will be much busier than long distance commuting or business travel. Unfortunately it is the latter two that bring the cash in.

There are still going to be a lot of people out there who will be anxious about crowded enclosed spaces until almost everyone has been inoculated.

It will be interesting to see how soon the over 60’s using a Senior Railcard, mainly for leisure travel, will return to train travel. I’m only in my early 60’s but I don’t think I will be doing any rail travel for leisure purposes until I have had both doses of the vaccine. Therefore I’m not thinking of returning to any long distance rail travel much before June/July. Over 60’s make up a good proportion on many off peak long distance services on some routes. There ought to be potential for lots of this type of travel when people are permitted to visit relatives and friends again. The first holiday I had to cancel last year was to Cornwall in April. I’m still not sure that I will be in a hurry to rebook that holiday anytime soon if it resulted in me having to travel all the way from Derby to Penzance on an overcrowded XC Voyager wearing a mask for over 6 hours.

Since retiring I have been taking a few days away from home every month and longer holidays in summer. Almost all of these have involved travelling by train, staying in a hotel within walking distance of a station, and using regional rail and bus rovers to travel around whilst there. Last summer during August, September and October I did manage to get away for 3 breaks. All of these were using my car, staying in quiet country locations, and doing lots of walking. I actually quite enjoyed using my car to stay in and visit lots of locations that are not accessible by public transport. It’s something I may now do more of this year.

Another aspect which may mean it is some time before I return to public transport for leisure travel is if there is a long term cut in frequencies. My local rail line in Nottinghamshire has had its frequency cut from every 30 minutes to hourly. This is quite adequate for the level of people currently travelling, but it no longer connects with the hourly bus from my village and more importantly no longer connects with trains to most destinations at Nottingham. That can now add 90+ minutes to the beginning or ending of of any journey with so much waiting around and getting nowhere.

 

[LowLevel]

It will be interesting to see how soon the over 60’s using a Senior Railcard, mainly for leisure travel, will return to train travel. I’m only in my early 60’s but I don’t think I will be doing any rail travel for leisure purposes until I have had both doses of the vaccine. Therefore I’m not thinking of returning to any long distance rail travel much before June/July. Over 60’s make up a good proportion on many off peak long distance services on some routes. There ought to be potential for lots of this type of travel when people are permitted to visit relatives and friends again. The first holiday I had to cancel last year was to Cornwall in April. I’m still not sure that I will be in a hurry to rebook that holiday anytime soon if it resulted in me having to travel all the way from Derby to Penzance on an overcrowded XC Voyager wearing a mask for over 6 hours.

Since retiring I have been taking a few days away from home every month and longer holidays in summer. Almost all of these have involved travelling by train, staying in a hotel within walking distance of a station, and using regional rail and bus rovers to travel around whilst there. Last summer during August, September and October I did manage to get away for 3 breaks. All of these were using my car, staying in quiet country locations, and doing lots of walking. I actually quite enjoyed using my car to stay in and visit lots of locations that are not accessible by public transport. It’s something I may now do more of this year.

Another aspect which may mean it is some time before I return to public transport for leisure travel is if there is a long term cut in frequencies. My local rail line in Nottinghamshire has had its frequency cut from every 30 minutes to hourly. This is quite adequate for the level of people currently travelling, but it no longer connects with the hourly bus from my village and more importantly no longer connects with trains to most destinations at Nottingham. That can now add 90+ minutes to the beginning or ending of of any journey with so much waiting around and getting nowhere.

Couldn't keep the elderly away from the Matlock branch all summer and through half of lockdown as well

The Robin Hood line has held up reasonably well in all regards, lots of blue collar workers and it does provide a genuine community service getting people from the likes of Newstead into Hucknall and the northern end stations into Mansfield to get their shopping.

 

[Solent&Wessex]

Rumours at work suggest the reduced temporary timetable that my TOC introduced this week which saw a massive reduction in services was forced by the DfT who apparently said that all overtime and rest day working must be stopped at all costs. The planning team report that they have been advised that this reduced timetable would most likely be in operation until at least May.

 

[Philip]

Rumours at work suggest the reduced temporary timetable introduced this week which saw a massive reduction in services was forced by the DfT who apparently said that all overtime and rest day working must be stopped at all costs. The planning team report that they have been advised that this reduced timetable would most likely be in operation until at least May.

Sunday working/opening hours have been reduced in some TOCs, but I believe the unions have blocked the removal of rest day working.

 

[Solent&Wessex]

Sunday working/opening hours have been reduced in some TOCs, but I believe the unions have blocked the removal of rest day working.

Well if you run loads less trains you need less staff in work so need less
, if any, overtime.

 

[Bald Rick]

We were back to being "pretty busy" during the infamous Eat Out to Help Out period.

Only on a few routes at certain times of day. At a national level, passenger numbers peaked at well under 40% of the previous year, and revenue was lower still.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 2 Feb 2021 ==

Sunday working/opening hours have been reduced in some TOCs, but I believe the unions have blocked the removal of rest day working.

Unions normally want to reduce RDW; usually TOCs have a RDW agreement that permits it to happen! If that agreement isn’t made, in theory it stops (although obviously, that rarely happens).

 

[PG]

The BBC have a quote (in a story about Sheds) from an occupational psychologist about WFH claiming that the lack of a commute is blurring the boundary between work and home. Suggests that some people will welcome a return to commuting as it is time for them without either being at work or having to deal with home life.

And occupational psychologists agree. Dr Chiara Amati says it is healthy to have a degree of separation between home and work. That explains why some people, even those who hated their commute, now miss those hours spent in traffic or on the train, which psychologists call a "boundary activity" because it puts space between work and leisure time.

IMAGE COPYRIGHT DR CHIARA AMATI
Dr Chiara Amati says putting a boundary between work and home is important

"It signals to your brain that you are shifting activity, you're now engaged with something different - and it can also be particularly important for people for whom work is quite stressful," she said.
"What people are finding when they're working from home, is that there's a real blurred boundary between work and home."

 

[Ianno87]

The BBC have a quote (in a story about Sheds) from an occupational psychologist about WFH claiming that the lack of a commute is blurring the boundary between work and home. Suggests that some people will welcome a return to commuting as it is time for them without either being at work or having to deal with home life.

The thing I'm definitely noticing is loss of real "me time" to recharge that even a walk or bus to the office fulfilled.

 

[S&CLER]

It will be interesting to see how soon the over 60’s using a Senior Railcard, mainly for leisure travel, will return to train travel. I’m only in my early 60’s but I don’t think I will be doing any rail travel for leisure purposes until I have had both doses of the vaccine. Therefore I’m not thinking of returning to any long distance rail travel much before June/July. Over 60’s make up a good proportion on many off peak long distance services on some routes. There ought to be potential for lots of this type of travel when people are permitted to visit relatives and friends again. The first holiday I had to cancel last year was to Cornwall in April. I’m still not sure that I will be in a hurry to rebook that holiday anytime soon if it resulted in me having to travel all the way from Derby to Penzance on an overcrowded XC Voyager wearing a mask for over 6 hours.

Since retiring I have been taking a few days away from home every month and longer holidays in summer. Almost all of these have involved travelling by train, staying in a hotel within walking distance of a station, and using regional rail and bus rovers to travel around whilst there. Last summer during August, September and October I did manage to get away for 3 breaks. All of these were using my car, staying in quiet country locations, and doing lots of walking. I actually quite enjoyed using my car to stay in and visit lots of locations that are not accessible by public transport. It’s something I may now do more of this year.

Another aspect which may mean it is some time before I return to public transport for leisure travel is if there is a long term cut in frequencies. My local rail line in Nottinghamshire has had its frequency cut from every 30 minutes to hourly. This is quite adequate for the level of people currently travelling, but it no longer connects with the hourly bus from my village and more importantly no longer connects with trains to most destinations at Nottingham. That can now add 90+ minutes to the beginning or ending of of any journey with so much waiting around and getting nowhere.

I shall be renewing my recently expired senior railcard this afternoon, as usual, just in case I get the chance to use it in the next few months. Missing my Saturday train + walk days out, though Merseyrail still offers the opportunity to do a walk in the sand dunes/pinewoods around Freshfield, at no cost; but there's a limit to the number of times I want to do this. I am wondering about the effect on local rail travel of the S. African variant in the adjacent PR9 postcode, Norwood ward area, if there are any additional restrictions here. I'm in PR8 but the boundary with PR9 is a few hundred yards away.

 

[yorksrob]

Rumours at work suggest the reduced temporary timetable introduced this week which saw a massive reduction in services was forced by the DfT who apparently said that all overtime and rest day working must be stopped at all costs. The planning team report that they have been advised that this reduced timetable would most likely be in operation until at least May.
[/QUOTE

The BBC have a quote (in a story about Sheds) from an occupational psychologist about WFH claiming that the lack of a commute is blurring the boundary between work and home. Suggests that some people will welcome a return to commuting as it is time for them without either being at work or having to deal with home life.

Dr Amiati is spot on. I think its very important to have that separation of work and non-work time.

I'm lucky in that my kitchen doubles as a study in that I can walk away to the living room at the end of the day, but not everyone has that.

So long as its not too busy, I've tended to enjoy the commute as well.

 

[Lampshade]

The BBC have a quote (in a story about Sheds) from an occupational psychologist about WFH claiming that the lack of a commute is blurring the boundary between work and home. Suggests that some people will welcome a return to commuting as it is time for them without either being at work or having to deal with home life.

I think for a lot of people it's 'living at work' now rather than 'working from home'.

 

[PG]

I think for a lot of people it's 'living at work' now rather than 'working from home'.

You've hit the nail on the head there!
Reminds me of when I ran my own business from home, although I enjoyed it there was never any escape bar the time I was asleep. It's not something I'd wish to go back to.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

The BBC have a quote (in a story about Sheds) from an occupational psychologist about WFH claiming that the lack of a commute is blurring the boundary between work and home. Suggests that some people will welcome a return to commuting as it is time for them without either being at work or having to deal with home life.

Absolutely that was my time on the train and I can see that many people saw it that way as well. That said I also like the flexibility of what time I went in on some days as well WFH on odd days when I knew most of the office wouldn't be about to interact with anyhow. As i see it this variability in how people work is no bad thing and both sides can be winners as well as alleviating some rush hour load. If passengers had a comfortable journey rather than crush loaded they would no doubt enjoy it more and see it as a nice part of there working day.

 

[Greybeard33]

Dr Amiati is spot on. I think its very important to have that separation of work and non-work time.

For many people the boundary between home and work had become blurred before they started WFH. They felt compelled to check and reply to work emails while at home/ while commuting/ even when away on holiday.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

For many people the boundary between home and work had become blurred before they started WFH. They felt compelled to check and reply to work emails while at home/ while commuting/ even when away on holiday.

That is very true.

People misunderstand that a mobile is just that to make me mobile not accessible but younger generation have got far too attached to devices and being online all the time.

 

[Greybeard33]

That is very true.

People misunderstand that a mobile is just that to make me mobile not accessible but younger generation have got far too attached to devices and being online all the time.

In many service industries the remote client/customer (who may be in a different time zone) can have the expectation that you are "on tap" 24/7. Very different from the old days of a 9-5 office job, with a landline phone and fax machine providing the only means of communication.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 2 Feb 2021 ==

They recovered after the Black Death. We should do a lot better than that but mutations of the virus can still catch us There are large numbers who will be reluctant to travel by public transport, some never again.

The Black Death is not an encouraging precedent! It took a hundred years for the population and economy to recover, and successive waves of the plague continued to recur for a further two centuries.

With Covid, I think the recovery in rail passenger numbers will depend a lot on how the virus evolves. Natural selection is now favouring variants that can evade the vaccines. My fear is that, come autumn, there will be a new wave of infection amongst people who have been vaccinated (or recovered from the previous variants), but it will take months after that to roll out updated vaccines. Groundhog Day.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

With Covid, I think the recovery in rail passenger numbers will depend a lot on how the virus evolves. Natural selection is now favouring variants that can evade the vaccines. My fear is that, come autumn, there will be a new wave of infection amongst people who have been vaccinated (or recovered from the previous variants), but it will take months after that to roll out updated vaccines. Groundhog Day.

Thats a potential risk which govt and society need to be prepared for but come April the virus will naturally decline with or without the vaccine as thats what respiratory viruses do so we need to have a relaxed April-Sept while transmission rates are low and the industry need to be prepared for a surge of users. A few summer Saturday specials need to be built into the plan to move all those staycationers to holiday resorts.

 

[Bald Rick]

Thats a potential risk which govt and society need to be prepared for but come April the virus will naturally decline with or without the vaccine as thats what respiratory viruses do so we need to have a relaxed April-Sept while transmission rates are low and the industry need to be prepared for a surge of users. A few summer Saturday specials need to be built into the plan to move all those staycationers to holiday resorts.

The holiday resort traffic will go by car, or day trippers to the usual places, for which TOCs have plans for, as it is very weather dependent.

What is more difficult is the extent to which there is a leisure boom for U.K. city breaks. I can see lots of people taking advantage of trips to London when it isn’t full of foreign tourists, as attractions and hotels will be cheap. Also some other places on the foreign tourist itinerary - York, Oxford, Edinburgh.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

The holiday resort traffic will go by car, or day trippers to the usual places, for which TOCs have plans for, as it is very weather dependent.

What is more difficult is the extent to which there is a leisure boom for U.K. city breaks. I can see lots of people taking advantage of trips to London when it isn’t full of foreign tourists, as attractions and hotels will be cheap. Also some other places on the foreign tourist itinerary - York, Oxford, Edinburgh.

Whats pretty clear is international travel is substantial written off this year.

In 2019 93MILLION overseas visits were taken by UK nationals so there's plenty to go at if the industry wants to organise itself. Trouble is the dead hand of DofT is controlling the industry and trying to run it at least cost and the TOCs are only too willing to oblige so they can collect there fees and bonus payments for running minimal services reliably.

I get most people will use the car but in an ordinary year access to W.Country via M5/A303 is nightmare so how about running a motorail service!!

 

[87015]

Whats pretty clear is international travel is substantial written off this year.

In 2019 93MILLION overseas visits were taken by UK nationals so there's plenty to go at if the industry wants to organise itself. Trouble is the dead hand of DofT is controlling the industry and trying to run it at least cost and the TOCs are only too willing to oblige so they can collect there fees and bonus payments for running minimal services reliably.

I get most people will use the car but in an ordinary year access to W.Country via M5/A303 is nightmare so how about running a motorail service!!

No the “dead hand” is that little or none of that will make any money which is why it generally hasn’t been a thing for twenty years or so...

 

[Bald Rick]

I can see GW running longer services down to Devon / Cornwall ‘on spec’, And of course all operators with regular resort traffic will be running their dated Summer services (eg Newquay, Pembroke, etc). But I’d be surprised if there was much in the way of short notice SO summer specials, with the possible exception of Brighton and perhaps Bournemouth or Scarborough if the sun come soon out.

 

[yorksrob]

I'm planning on a trip to the West country by train. If they ever open things up.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 2 Feb 2021 ==

Hopefully four carriages to Whitby !

 

[Horizon22]

Its the commuter heartlands where the trips of ~60 minutes were common which will be difficult to get back. Places like Guildford, Newbury, Tonbridge, Maidstone, Oxford etc. Commuting was such a huge chunk of thse journeys that even 3days a week for about half of these people would be a significant cut of overall journeys and, crucially, income.

I do think there will be a big rise in leisure travel this summer/autumn due to pent up demand but this may be short-lived. That being said a reduction to erly 2000s will be no bad thing in terms of railway performance but it might be 10 years perhaps to recover those incremental rise. Who knows maybe we'll become a more leisure based railway.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

No the “dead hand” is that little or none of that will make any money which is why it generally hasn’t been a thing for twenty years or so...

Well its costing billions to keep the industry on self support so even marginal income is beneficial especially as we are running a lot less trains but still have the same resources from stock to traincrew to support. Car carriers maybe a challenge but given car manufacturing is well down as are imports im sure some suitable vehicles could be found.

I can see GW running longer services down to Devon / Cornwall ‘on spec’, And of course all operators with regular resort traffic will be running their dated Summer services (eg Newquay, Pembroke, etc). But I’d be surprised if there was much in the way of short notice SO summer specials, with the possible exception of Brighton and perhaps Bournemouth or Scarborough if the sun come soon out.

Industry was capable of this years ago and if there is a will for it railway folk can make it happen

 

[Ianno87]

Well its costing billions to keep the industry on self support so even marginal income is beneficial especially as we are running a lot less trains but still have the same resources from stock to traincrew to support. Car carriers maybe a challenge but given car manufacturing is well down as are imports im sure some suitable vehicles could be found.

Where do you propose to load these trains?

 

[ChiefPlanner]

I can see GW running longer services down to Devon / Cornwall ‘on spec’, And of course all operators with regular resort traffic will be running their dated Summer services (eg Newquay, Pembroke, etc). But I’d be surprised if there was much in the way of short notice SO summer specials, with the possible exception of Brighton and perhaps Bournemouth or Scarborough if the sun come soon out.

That sounds a good plan - (forget dreams of Motorail as someone mentioned above) - there is enough capacity to Pembroke (for which one really means Tenby) though maybe a bit of augmenting the local service from TfW , the Devon area locals of course are now largely 4 cars , and targeted attention to the South Coast - not forgetting of course up and coming places like Broadstairs and even the "old" Kent resorts. Enough off peak stock to cover these I reckon.

I cannot get excited about Whitby - unless the stock is found off peak from other places. My close family always found the bus from York a really good way to get there - as they have done a couple of times (I await a salvo of dissent)

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 2 Feb 2021 ==

Where do you propose to load these trains?

See above - forget car trains - even in the halcyon days of the 1970's they were fiendishly expensive to both travel on and resource.