New lockdown in England, including school closures, announced by Johnson, 4/1/21

[Yew]

Indeed, this really has got to be the very last lockdown now. No more of this nonsense happening again and the devastating impacts it will have on the economy and mental health of millions. Absolutely has to be the VERY last lockdown now.

Apparently the Swiss are having a referendum in June to forbid the government from using lockdowns.

 

[Bantamzen]

I think such a statement was probably true until early 2020, but with the precedent that has been set by the last year, I expect that lockdowns will now be a permanent part of the public health toolkit for tackling respiratory viruses.

But toolkit we simply cannot afford.

 

[nlogax]

But toolkit we simply cannot afford.

You (and me and millions of others) may think that but HM Government couldn't possibly comment.

What we think doesn't doesn't and won't register on the government's radar, not unless something drastic happens.

 

[DannyMich2018]

Indeed, this really has got to be the very last lockdown now. No more of this nonsense happening again and the devastating impacts it will have on the economy and mental health of millions. Absolutely has to be the VERY last lockdown now.

Exactly Class 33. We lost my dad on 28th April last year due to Covid but he did have a lot of health problems including blood cancer. He had a big heart operation in Feb 2019, he'd pretty much been on borrowed time the last 5 or so years, he couldn't walk far and would have likely not lived for much longer in any case. My mum does support the idea of Lockdown but not for the sake of it and is getting fed up of been home all day and is missing going out for Sunday lunch occasionally although she does go work so not too bad for her in that respect. I'll have to ask her to cut my and my partners hair soon as cannot see barbers opening any time soon. She has had Vaccine and my partner too as he works in hospital. By the way this hospital has seen a large drop in Covid patients during the last week with not too many deaths but we only hear the bad stats.

 

[Bantamzen]

You (and me and millions of others) may think that but HM Government couldn't possibly comment.

What we think doesn't doesn't and won't register on the government's radar, not unless something drastic happens.

Oh I'm sure the cost is very much on the radar at No.11 Downing Street.

 

[nlogax]

Oh I'm sure the cost is very much on the radar at No.11 Downing Street.

More as a review exercise once the bulk of this is finally, finally over. There will be a gigantic totting-up of the 2020-2021 approach to be done.

 

[yorksrob]

Apparently the Swiss are having a referendum in June to forbid the government from using lockdowns.

A very wise move.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

Apparently the Swiss are having a referendum in June to forbid the government from using lockdowns.

We certainly need to have a broad conversation with wider society as to how this should be managed going forward. At the moment we have polarised SAGE group hell bent on zero Covid and recommending a strategy that just delivers that outcome; a govt that didn't take it seriously 12mths ago and thought it could breeze through it who now find themselves at risk of being accused of some genocidal episode so are throwing caution to the wind. This need a commission with a broad spectrum on the panel representing a diversity of views that should have 4-6 weeks to review and report back.

 

[WelshBluebird]

We certainly need to have a broad conversation with wider society as to how this should be managed going forward. At the moment we have polarised SAGE group hell bent on zero Covid and recommending a strategy that just delivers that outcome; a govt that didn't take it seriously 12mths ago and thought it could breeze through it who now find themselves at risk of being accused of some genocidal episode so are throwing caution to the wind. This need a commission with a broad spectrum on the panel representing a diversity of views that should have 4-6 weeks to review and report back.

Isn't that basically what the government should have been doing through all of this though?
Taking the thoughts of SAGE, of academics and medical staff and then pairing that with thoughts from economists and business, and then trying to work out the best way to manage it all (and I repeat what I said on a different thread a while ago - sometimes there aren't any good options, so governments have to choose the least worst).

Apparently the Swiss are having a referendum in June to forbid the government from using lockdowns.

And we all know what happens when you have a referendum on topics that 90% of the electorate are not really qualified to make decisions on.
Again - this is something government should be deciding based on information and data from multiple different areas of expertise.

 

[Domh245]

Isn't that basically what the government should have been doing through all of this though?
Taking the thoughts of SAGE, of academics and medical staff and then pairing that with thoughts from economists and business, and then trying to work out the best way to manage it all (and I repeat what I said on a different thread a while ago - sometimes there aren't any good options, so governments have to choose the least worst).

Should have been, yes. It would seem however that economists and businesses have been completely sidelined in favour of keeping pensioners from dying

And we all know what happens when you have a referendum on topics that 90% of the electorate are not really qualified to make decisions on.
Again - this is something government should be deciding based on information and data from multiple different areas of expertise.

Thankfully, the swiss are well versed in direct democracy of this sort.

 

[Richard Scott]

A very wise move.

I wouldn't trust the citizens of this country to make the best decision if we had a referendum on lockdowns.

 

[6862]

I wouldn't trust the citizens of this country to make the best decision if we had a referendum on lockdowns.

I agree. All it would take would be a nicely timed (i.e. the night before such a vote) announcement of a new more potent variant of the virus and I'm pretty sure you could get the majority to vote for permanent lockdown if that was an option.

 

[jtuk]

More as a review exercise once the bulk of this is finally, finally over. There will be a gigantic totting-up of the 2020-2021 approach to be done.

I don't care about the costs at this stage. They've already spent enough that I'll be paying this off for the rest of my life. All I want is prosecutions of those in charge for their crimes against humanity.

 

[takno]

I wouldn't trust the citizens of this country to make the best decision if we had a referendum on lockdowns.

I'd certainly want to wait a few months for the impacts to start being felt. Right now I feel like people might actually vote for more lockdowns

 

[yorksrob]

I wouldn't trust the citizens of this country to make the best decision if we had a referendum on lockdowns.

That's a fair point. The Swiss are quite well versed in direct democracy.

 

[35B]

Apparently the Swiss are having a referendum in June to forbid the government from using lockdowns.

Out of curiosity, is this on the ballot, or a campaign that's currently being run to get something on the ballot? I don't find it hard to believe that campaigners could meet the threshold* to compel a referendum to be held; it's less clear that they could win that referendum following a campaign - especially given the double majority of people and cantons required.

* - according to Wikipedia, either 50,000 for an "Optional Referendum" which would block a federal law, or 100,000 supporting signatures for a "Popular Initiative", which would change the Federal Constitution. According to the same source, only 22 of the 192 Popular Initiatives have been successful to date.

 

[ScottGallagher]

How do people rate the chances of furlough being extended beyond April, there are some hints beginning to emerge in the press that it will but you never know. I'm not on it and thankfully never have been, but colleagues have and some partially still are.

 

[brad465]

How do people rate the chances of furlough being extended beyond April, there are some hints beginning to emerge in the press that it will but you never know. I'm not on it and thankfully never have been, but colleagues have and some partially still are.

I think an extension is almost inevitable as I don't see all restrictions being lifted by this point. The question is how long he extends it for, and what the outlook is at the time of the extension, especially if an extension was announced in the budget in a month's time, when clear improvements should be present.

 

[Gadget88]

Wow Switzerland such a forward thinking country and true democracy why can’t we have this here?

 

[yorkie]

Wow Switzerland such a forward thinking country and true democracy why can’t we have this here?

That's a whole new topic not for this thread!

Back on topic of the England lockdown, I am opposed to a lockdown of this nature. I might be more supportive if a new virus came along that had much higher fatality rate (e.g. a fatality rate 10x higher than Sars-Cov-2) especially if the R value was lower so a lockdown actually had a chance of eliminating it. But to lock down for a virus like this is not right.

That's not to say I don't think there should be some proportionate measures, however to deny people good physical and mental well-being during a time we should want people to be healthy and to shift such a huge burden on the younger generation is utterly perverse and unforgivable.

I'm still predicting some easing of restrictions in early March. With us being down to 18,607 positive tests announced today, and vaccinations proceeding at an incredible rate, it makes sense to shift towards T3 from early March. I would not be surprised if they tweak the tiers slightly, for example they might allow us to visit gyms and leisure centres before they allow "non essential" shops & services to reopen but that is just speculation on my part.

Keeping us from exercising properly is utterly scandalous and that needs to change.

 

[Mojo]

How many of these people in hospital were admitted due to a fall/heart attack/RTC/other but then happened to test positive so are a Covid Stat even though they weren't admitted as a Covid patient

And more interestingly, how many people were actually admitted into hospital for an unrelated issue and ended up catching the virus in the hospital and needing hospital treatment for Covid.

I might be more supportive if a new virus came along that had much higher fatality rate (e.g. a fatality rate 10x higher than Sars-Cov-2) especially if the R value was lower so a lockdown actually had a chance of eliminating it. But to lock down for a virus like this is not right.

The behavioural scientists told the government back in March that they had one shot at this, for a generation. The real risk is now that a more fatal disease but with easy transmission actually comes along, but which people aren’t willing to listen to the advice because of the unnecessary lockdowns for this one.

 

[Freightmaster]

The behavioural scientists told the government back in March that they had one shot at this, for a generation. The real risk is now that a more fatal disease but with easy transmission actually comes along, but which people aren’t willing to listen to the advice because of the unnecessary lockdowns for this one.

This.

I remember Whitty warning about the danger of 'lockdown fatigue' during one of the press conferences
last March - and that was just in relation to one lockdown, not three!!




MARK

 

[notlob.divad]

And more interestingly, how many people were actually admitted into hospital for an unrelated issue and ended up catching the virus in the hospital and needing hospital treatment for Covid.

I think this is a very relevent point, and needs to be looked at in terms of the long term trajectory the NHS has been taken. - Maybe this is a valid topic for a new thread.

Over the last decades, the NHS has very much taken a "bigger and fewer is better" role for hospitals. Major hospitals in major towns and cities have had huge multimillion pound rebuilds, whilst smaller outdated facilities have been closed. In 'normal' times this has nto nessesarily been a bad thing, often the bigger hospitals can offer the specialist treatments that a smaller hospital couldn't. No doubt the pooling of resources at the larger facilities has a cost benefit. However what it does mean, is you have far more human-human contacts, simply because you have more people roaming around in the same massive building. You have porters, cleaners, nurses, doctors, patients and visitors, all roaming around from ward to ward within the same building, touching the same elevator buttons, opening the same door handles. It must be a nightmare for transmission control. As a result

I know in some countries, where they have not taken this amalgamation approach to their healthcare, they have been able to designated facilities as covid and non-covid hospitals. In these cases staff have not been mixing between the facilities. Whilst I am sure it is not 100% effective, I am convinced that this kind of thinking has reduced transmission, thus reducing the impact upon the health facilities and their staff.

I think it is something that the UK will have to re-visit. Obviously there is an opposite end of the scale where there are far too many small hospitals that they cannot function efficently, but there can be no doubt that the general thrust of UK heatlh policy over the last decades has been this amalgamation approach, evidenced by the regular and repeated "save out local hospital/A&E/surgery" campaigns.

 

[35B]

This.

I remember Whitty warning about the danger of 'lockdown fatigue' during one of the press conferences
last March - and that was just in relation to one lockdown, not three!!




MARK

I believed him then. I’m less sure either that we were immune to fatigue then, or completely lacking in stamina now.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 2 Feb 2021 ==

I think this is a very relevent point, and needs to be looked at in terms of the long term trajectory the NHS has been taken. - Maybe this is a valid topic for a new thread.

Over the last decades, the NHS has very much taken a "bigger and fewer is better" role for hospitals. Major hospitals in major towns and cities have had huge multimillion pound rebuilds, whilst smaller outdated facilities have been closed. In 'normal' times this has nto nessesarily been a bad thing, often the bigger hospitals can offer the specialist treatments that a smaller hospital couldn't. No doubt the pooling of resources at the larger facilities has a cost benefit. However what it does mean, is you have far more human-human contacts, simply because you have more people roaming around in the same massive building. You have porters, cleaners, nurses, doctors, patients and visitors, all roaming around from ward to ward within the same building, touching the same elevator buttons, opening the same door handles. It must be a nightmare for transmission control. As a result

I know in some countries, where they have not taken this amalgamation approach to their healthcare, they have been able to designated facilities as covid and non-covid hospitals. In these cases staff have not been mixing between the facilities. Whilst I am sure it is not 100% effective, I am convinced that this kind of thinking has reduced transmission, thus reducing the impact upon the health facilities and their staff.

I think it is something that the UK will have to re-visit. Obviously there is an opposite end of the scale where there are far too many small hospitals that they cannot function efficently, but there can be no doubt that the general thrust of UK heatlh policy over the last decades has been this amalgamation approach, evidenced by the regular and repeated "save out local hospital/A&E/surgery" campaigns.

A cousin is a retired doctor, living in an area where the population is “too small” to support the number of large hospitals they have. Consolidation is deeply unpopular, despite the local NHS trust having an appalling record.

The interesting issue he raises, which is pertinent to me here in Grantham where A&E has been under threat for years, is that hospitals need to be at a certain scale for doctors to remain current in their disciplines. If not, death rates will rise as doctors lack competence.

 

[yorkie]

I think this is a very relevent point, and needs to be looked at in terms of the long term trajectory the NHS has been taken. - Maybe this is a valid topic for a new thread.

Feel free to create one; it is an interesting subject worthy of a thread. But let's try not to deviate too much from the lockdown on this thread; we're already up to 1735 posts

I believed him then. I’m less sure either that we were immune to fatigue then, or completely lacking in stamina now.

I think you are being disingenuous and unfair. The toll on society is immense. I know of previously happy teenagers who are now so depressed their parents struggle to get them out of bed.

 

[nedchester]

Feel free to create one.


I think you are being disingenuous and unfair. The toll on society is immense. I know of previously happy teenagers who are now so depressed their parents struggle to get them out of bed.

That is the situation I am currently going through at the moment trying to cajole my daughter to do school work and engage during what should be her important GCSE year.

Prior to March 2020 she was on track for 9 high grade GCSEs.

We hope that we can turn her around even if it takes a 12 month delay as we can support her with the education (we are both former teachers) but many parents aren’t able to do that.

This is just the tip of the iceberg.

 

[VauxhallandI]

The kid next door plays computer games all day when his mother is out working.

 

[takno]

The kid next door plays computer games all day when his mother is out working.

I think that's happening a lot. It always did of course, but it's happening on a much larger scale. It's particularly bad since online games are now one of the closest things you can get to socialising if you think zoom quizzes are pathetic.

 

[nedchester]

I think that's happening a lot. It always did of course, but it's happening on a much larger scale. It's particularly bad since online games are now one of the closest things you can get to socialising if you think zoom quizzes are pathetic.

The issue we have is actually motivating my daughter to do anything. The lockdown has really affected matters. She is not naturally lazy but lost all motivation since March.

And we (her parents) are at home all day.

 

[brad465]

This doesn't look good, not least this won't be the only thing seeing higher than normal deaths:

Alcohol deaths hit record high during Covid pandemic

The figures for England and Wales cover the first nine months of 2020.

www.bbc.co.uk

Deaths caused by alcohol hit a new high during the first nine months of 2020, provisional figures for England and Wales show.
Between January and September, 5,460 of these deaths causes were registered - up 16% on the same months in 2019.
It is the biggest toll recorded since the records began in 2001.
The high rates spanned the period during and after first Covid lockdown, the Office for National Statistics figures show.
It reached a peak of 12.8 deaths per 100,000 people in the first three months of 2020 and remained at this level through to September - higher than in any other time on record.
As in past years, rates of male alcohol-specific deaths were twice those seen for women.
Experts say the coronavirus pandemic will have had little effect on how the data was gathered and recorded.
It is not clear how much it may have contributed to the deaths, however.
ONS spokesman Ben Humberstone said: "Today's data shows that in the first three quarters of 2020, alcohol-specific deaths in England and Wales reached the highest level since the beginning of our data series, with April to September, during and after the first lockdown, seeing higher rates compared to the same period in previous years."
"The reasons for this are complex and it will take time before the impact the pandemic has had on alcohol-specific deaths is fully understood."