New lockdown in England, including school closures, announced by Johnson, 4/1/21

[Solent&Wessex]

"Normality" can be delayed. There are a lot of different stages between normality and lockdown - something that the lockdown obsessives deliberately ignore every time.

Agree.

I am certainly not expecting or calling for every restriction to be lifted all at once, but shops don't bother me particularly so their opening isn't a milestone for me.

I just want to be able to loose the "you must stay at home" rule and allow some level, accepting some restrictions, of indoor inter-household mixing.

Oh and I really want to go for a pint with some friends.

But I would be happy to accept some restrictions (such as restrictions on the number of households allowed to mix indoors, table service in pubs, early closing, no international travel, no large gatherings etc) to be maintained for a time rather than a big bang all at once approach.

Sadly these things will most likely be the last to be allowed, probably not till the summer.

 

[yorksrob]

Absolutely, some European countries allow shops to open during the day alongside a nighttime curfew. We could’ve at least trailed that somewhere rather than just decimating every High Street

Just allowing outdoor things for a while might be an option.

 

[Crossover]

There are some ridiculously aggressive posters on bus stops in London with photos of people being ventilated in hospital saying "Tell me you can't work from home". Which I thought was ridiculous as I was walking to the train station to go to my essential job. Not to mention the fact it's not people required to go into work, it's employers either a) requiring them to or b) because it physically can't be done from home. Perhaps this is to do with the recent stories about TfL trains being packed in the early morning.

I haven't seen the billboard ads but have heard of them and seen similar ones on TV, heard on radio etc. They really grate such is their aggressive nature. What we need is less of things like this whipping up a frenzy, not more!

Agree.

I am certainly not expecting or calling for every restriction to be lifted all at once, but shops don't bother me particularly so their opening isn't a milestone for me.

I just want to be able to loose the "you must stay at home " rule and allow some level, accepting some restrictions, of indoor inter-household mixing.

Oh and I really want to go for a pint with some friends.

But I would be happy to accept some restrictions (such as restrictions on numbers, table service, early closing, no international travel, no large gatherings etc) to be maintained for a time rather than a big bang all at once approach.

Sadly these things will most likely be the last to be allowed, probably not till the summer.

100% agree with you!

 

[yorksrob]

Agree.

I am certainly not expecting or calling for every restriction to be lifted all at once, but shops don't bother me particularly so their opening isn't a milestone for me.

I just want to be able to loose the "you must stay at home " rule and allow some level, accepting some restrictions, of indoor inter-household mixing.

Oh and I really want to go for a pint with some friends.

But I would be happy to accept some restrictions (such as restrictions on numbers, table service, early closing, no international travel, no large gatherings etc) to be maintained for a time rather than a big bang all at once approach.

Sadly these things will most likely be the last to be allowed, probably not till the summer.

Agree 100%.

Sadly such comparatively low risk sanity preserving activities are such a low priority for the SAGE fanatics that they probably won't be allowed for a while.

 

[35B]

Why?

Heneghan in particular is very good at backing up his points with actual data.

Because all of them are partisan hacks. Yeadon is a conspiracist anti-Vaxxer, Gupta has just been flat wrong on the raw epidemiology, and Heneghan showed his true colours - and a breathtaking lack of scientific rigour - in his public interpretation of the Danmask study.

 

[DB]

Because all of them are partisan hacks. Yeadon is a conspiracist anti-Vaxxer, Gupta has just been flat wrong on the raw epidemiology, and Heneghan showed his true colours - and a breathtaking lack of scientific rigour - in his public interpretation of the Danmask study.

Right - so basically you don't agree with them so that makes them 'partisan hacks', whereas peer review via twitter, or consistently getting projections completely wrong, are fine because they support your viewpoint...

 

[Carlisle]

However now it seems an easing of lockdown will not even be considered until they have proof that vaccines work.

Whatever the performance of the vaccines, would it be acceptable & affordable to repeat this length of lockdown next winter ?

 

[brad465]

Looks like the Government's strategy is being further undermined by their choice of adverts:

Coronavirus: Government withdraws 'sexist' Stay Home advert

An "infographic" urging people to remain indoors during lockdown showed only women doing chores.

www.bbc.co.uk

The government has withdrawn a social media advert urging people to "Stay Home. Save Lives" after it was criticised for stereotyping women.

The image showed women home schooling children and doing domestic chores, while the only man featured was depicted relaxing on a sofa.

The poster was withdrawn after going viral on social media and facing criticism for being "sexist".

The government said the ad did "not reflect" its "view on women".

 

[Bantamzen]

Whatever the performance of the vaccines, would it be acceptable & affordable to repeat this length of lockdown next winter ?

No, no and thrice no. The cost over the last 10 months has been vast, and if it runs deep into the Spring it will grow so much more. We are already over £2 trillion in public spending deficit, we really can't afford to keep digging that hole because the cost will be way to great on everyone.

 

[35B]

Right - so basically you don't agree with them so that makes them 'partisan hacks', whereas peer review via twitter, or consistently getting projections completely wrong, are fine because they support your viewpoint...

It's not whether I agree with them, but what's on the record, and how it compares with reality.

Also, please note that I didn't speak in favour of the others.

 

[Reliablebeam]

Agree.

I am certainly not expecting or calling for every restriction to be lifted all at once, but shops don't bother me particularly so their opening isn't a milestone for me.

I just want to be able to loose the "you must stay at home" rule and allow some level, accepting some restrictions, of indoor inter-household mixing.

Oh and I really want to go for a pint with some friends.

But I would be happy to accept some restrictions (such as restrictions on the number of households allowed to mix indoors, table service in pubs, early closing, no international travel, no large gatherings etc) to be maintained for a time rather than a big bang all at once approach.

Sadly these things will most likely be the last to be allowed, probably not till the summer.

I think this sums up my views - I think there is a very good scientific rationale to *not* go for a big bang reopening - if I was in the Captain's chair I would want to be able to disentangle any problematic areas (whether geographic, economic or social) in small chunks, deal with them and then move on. It's also likely that there will be a temporary blip up in case numbers as you start reopening, so probably best to let them even out and avoid upsetting the nervous. I agree @Solent&Wessex the stay home instruction should be binned sooner rather than later - I think a few of us on here have opined that if we get a warm March/April this could become a flashpoint if still in place....

Now of course this does begin to raise the issue of how quickly we should go in loosening restrictions. Schools are clearly a problem and need to be sorted - I would at least pilot getting primaries back in a few areas after half term as a test project. But personally, I don't see why they can't go much faster on releasing the 'Stay home' instruction and at least some 'non-essential' retailers. I've been pleasantly surprised how quickly infection numbers have come down, I read the LSHTM preprint on the new variant and thought they had a well argued case we were up a creek without a paddle, so this looks very promising.

 

[duncanp]

Indeed. The only way to combat this is to continue to ramp up capacity, including employing the missing staff, increasing the missing bed capacity, purchasing the missing machines and getting up to European style coverage of the population - something that all major Governments have failed at over the last twenty years.

Shutting down the country permanently is not an option.

I think that one of the things that the UK will have to face up to after this is all over is how we make sure that the NHS has sufficient capacity to deal with something like this in the future.

COVID-19 has exposed the strengths of the NHS, but it has also exposed its' weaknesses.

There might need to be an increase in National Insurance and/or Income Tax as a consequence, and all governments, including the devolved ones, need to be honest about this.

But we also need a strong economy in order to fund the NHS, which is why relaxing restrictions cannot be put off indefinitely.

 

[takno]

It's not whether I agree with them, but what's on the record, and how it compares with reality.

Also, please note that I didn't speak in favour of the others.

You said that you consider them to be worse. That's harsh when Sridhar hasn't done anything that looks like science for a year. She's just on a non-stop evidence-free media bandwagon to promote her weird and impractical obsession with elimination.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 28 Jan 2021 ==

I think this sums up my views - I think there is a very good scientific rationale to *not* go for a big bang reopening - if I was in the Captain's chair I would want to be able to disentangle any problematic areas (whether geographic, economic or social) in small chunks, deal with them and then move on. It's also likely that there will be a temporary blip up in case numbers as you start reopening, so probably best to let them even out and avoid upsetting the nervous. I agree @Solent&Wessex the stay home instruction should be binned sooner rather than later - I think a few of us on here have opined that if we get a warm March/April this could become a flashpoint if still in place....

Now of course this does begin to raise the issue of how quickly we should go in loosening restrictions. Schools are clearly a problem and need to be sorted - I would at least pilot getting primaries back in a few areas after half term as a test project. But personally, I don't see why they can't go much faster on releasing the 'Stay home' instruction and at least some 'non-essential' retailers. I've been pleasantly surprised how quickly infection numbers have come down, I read the LSHTM preprint on the new variant and thought they had a well argued case we were up a creek without a paddle, so this looks very promising.

I think the stay home guidance should go in mid-February, and then if they want to stage things they should do it in 3-week chunks. May is too late for anything

 

[kristiang85]

Yeadon is not an anti-vaxxer. He's just questioning why a whole population needs to be vaccinated, and is very much against coerced vaccination (which is actually against numerous international laws).

Pigeonholing people into one of two categories is not helpful to the discourse, and it's happening all over social media. Apparently if you question lockdowns you are a COVID denier, if you question vaccination strategy you are an antivaxxer. Science is a lot more nuanced than that, and the rhetoric is getting almost dangerous.

 

[takno]

Yeadon is not an anti-vaxxer. He's just questioning why a whole population needs to be vaccinated, and is very much against coerced vaccination (which is actually against numerous international laws).

Pigeonholing people into one of two categories is not helpful to the discourse, and it's happening all over social media. Apparently if you question lockdowns you are a COVID denier, if you question vaccination strategy you are an antivaxxer. Science is a lot more nuanced than that, and the rhetoric is getting almost dangerous.

I think we probably just need one big national fist-fight to determine once and for all who is following the science hardest

 

[Bantamzen]

I think that one of the things that the UK will have to face up to after this is all over is how we make sure that the NHS has sufficient capacity to deal with something like this in the future.

COVID-19 has exposed the strengths of the NHS, but it has also exposed its' weaknesses.

There might need to be an increase in National Insurance and/or Income Tax as a consequence, and all governments, including the devolved ones, need to be honest about this.

But we also need a strong economy in order to fund the NHS, which is why relaxing restrictions cannot be put off indefinitely.

This where we need that 'Like' button! Yes covid has exposed the shortfalls in the NHS capacity, and it should have been a priority from the off for the government to plug that gap permanently, not the farcical rush to produce Nightingale hospitals that would be barely used. Another example of being seen to do something without doing something meaningful. And yes we need a strong, functioning economy to provide the resource (aka cash) to back it up. The amount of money spend on covid measures far exceeds several times the NHS budget, even just half of it could have been laid down to build foundations for a much better service within a few years. Instead the government pis..., erm threw it against the wall.

 

[Yew]

I'd consider it even more generous to ascribe the label to Yeadon, Heneghan or Sunetra Gupta.

I'd agree about Yeadon, But the other two are established medical professors in relevant disciplines at the most respected university in the country

Just allowing outdoor things for a while might be an option.

Have you seen the weather?

 

[WelshBluebird]

I think the stay home guidance should go in mid-February, and then if they want to stage things they should do it in 3-week chunks. May is too late for anything

3 weeks isn't enough to see the effects of the previous change though.

Pigeonholing people into one of two categories is not helpful to the discourse, and it's happening all over social media. Apparently if you question lockdowns you are a COVID denier, if you question vaccination strategy you are an antivaxxer. Science is a lot more nuanced than that, and the rhetoric is getting almost dangerous.

I mean, somewhat ironic considering how much this forum seems to love calling people "locktavists" or "masktavists" or whatever.
There is probably a reason why this part of the forum feels like an echo chamber of anti lockdown feeling compared to many other places - because the rest of us mostly can't be bothered to post anymore because of the replies to us (as I have said before - hyperbole like calling masks "muzzles" doesn't help either).

 

[Class 33]

I think the stay home guidance should go in mid-February, and then if they want to stage things they should do it in 3-week chunks. May is too late for anything

Absolutely. They can't keep treating us like children, saying we "Must stay at home" for months on end! But it seems the first easing of lockdown won't be till at least 8th March! So at least another 5 weeks of this yet! But if the "Stay at home" guidance is still going into March and the weather starts warming up nicely, I can guarantee that not many will be sticking to that. Many will be heading to the beaches, parks, and beauty spots to get out and about and enjoying the weather!

 

[yorksrob]

I think that one of the things that the UK will have to face up to after this is all over is how we make sure that the NHS has sufficient capacity to deal with something like this in the future.

COVID-19 has exposed the strengths of the NHS, but it has also exposed its' weaknesses.

There might need to be an increase in National Insurance and/or Income Tax as a consequence, and all governments, including the devolved ones, need to be honest about this.

But we also need a strong economy in order to fund the NHS, which is why relaxing restrictions cannot be put off indefinitely.

Indeed. I think part of the long term issue is how we de-couple health spending from Government interference. To my mind, some of our continental friends seem to achieve this more effectively than us.

Have you seen the weather?

It's bracing, like Skegness.

 

[35B]

I'd agree about Yeadon, But the other two are established medical professors in relevant disciplines at the most respected university in the country

They are, but I’m going on what they’ve said about this epidemic, for the reasons I’ve given.

Yeadon is not an anti-vaxxer. He's just questioning why a whole population needs to be vaccinated, and is very much against coerced vaccination (which is actually against numerous international laws).

Pigeonholing people into one of two categories is not helpful to the discourse, and it's happening all over social media. Apparently if you question lockdowns you are a COVID denier, if you question vaccination strategy you are an antivaxxer. Science is a lot more nuanced than that, and the rhetoric is getting almost dangerous.

I make the assertion about Yeadon because of who he has lined up with, and the positions he’s taken.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

Weekly Flu survey again confirms continuing downward trends across all metrics and bare in mind this report is based on data upto last Friday so wont have benefits of this weeks steeper drops.

Case rates halved from 700/100k to 350/100k over last four weeks. London peaked at the highest rate of 1100 now below 500. All other regions peaked much lower and all below 500 and declining.

Case rates declined across all age groups some by over 50% over last four weeks.

Positivity rates from pillar 2 down from 15% to 7%.

Hospitalisations admission rates down nationally but at regional level they're down 50% in London & SE with only W.Midlands still rising slowly. Rates have dropped in all >65 year old age groups but are static in the lower age groups. In particular the 45-64 age group is not yet responding like the higher age groups and this metric is unfortunately the one that seems to drive govt policy now to wanting all 50 year olds to be vaccinated.

Looking at data that been released so far this week next weeks update should be a lot more favourable and give CRG to push harder about the rate of relaxation.

 

[greyman42]

What has happened to the much vaunted "R" number that used to be wheeled out every day?

 

[matt]

As off the 22nd Jan it is 0.8 to 1 as per https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/

0.8 to 1 with a daily infection growth rate range of -4% to -1% as of 22 January 2021.

 

[greyman42]

As off the 22nd Jan it is 0.8 to 1 as per https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/

Thanks. Perhaps if it gets above 1 the government/media will start shouting about it again.

 

[duncanp]

What has happened to the much vaunted "R" number that used to be wheeled out every day?

It isn't important now as it is below 1, and can't be used to scare people into complying with "the rules".

Of course, the second it goes above 1, it will be all over the papers, and all the COVID bedwetters at the BBC will say that this means that the number of cases WILL GROW EXPONENTIALLY again, just to frighten everyone.

 

[jtuk]

I do think that if the transmission study which is due back in February shows that vaccinated people are very unlikely to transmit the virus, then things will move faster as more 50+ get vaccinated.

If the vast majority of the tiny minority that make up the vulnerable are protected, it can transmit all it wants for all I care (and is a desirable result)

 

[birchesgreen]

I encountered something incredibly dystopian today which seemed liked something straight out of a bad sci-fi. At my local shopping centre there was a large video screen set up playing an endless loop of footage of people on ventilators and the like with overlaid messages like STAY HOME, while a weird and eerie tune blared out. Not that there was anyone much to tell to go home as only about 3 shops in the entire place were open! Really weird.

 

[py_megapixel]

I wonder if anyone's complained to ASA about these ads yet?

 

[Crossover]

Of course, the second it goes above 1, it will be all over the papers, and all the COVID bedwetters at the BBC will say that this means that the number of cases WILL GROW EXPONENTIALLY again, just to frighten everyone.

But of course, there are no mentions of "exponential" decline!