New lockdown in England, including school closures, announced by Johnson, 4/1/21

[Class 33]

It will be beyond ridiculous if this a very slow easing and even slower than last year. This year we've got all the millions that have already been vaccinated, and many millions more over the coming months. Therefore the easing really should be a lot more intensive and progressive than last year's slow easing.

If they still keep this social distancing nonsense up for months and months yet, then this summer's festivals and events industry will be completely obliterated again for the second year in a row. This really should not be happening. In a Downing Street Press Conference around September/October last year, Jonathan Van-Tam was asked a question "If a vaccine is found, can social distancing be scrapped?". To which Van Tam replied with "Yes if a vaccine is found, there will be no further requirement for social distancing to continue.". So it will be absolutely ridiculous if by June/July - several months after the vaccinations started back in December, if this social distancing nonsense is still dragging on with no end in sight.

 

[Mojo]

Will be really cheesed off if my (domestic) easter holidays trip is cancelled again for the second year in a row. There really is no reason for it.

The easing last year really was too late and I’d have hoped they’d have seen more sense this year especially given the vaccines.

 

[chris11256]

It will be beyond ridiculous if this a very slow easing and even slower than last year. This year we've got all the millions that have already been vaccinated, and many millions more over the coming months. Therefore the easing really should be a lot more intensive and progressive than last year's slow easing.

If they still keep this social distancing nonsense up for months and months yet, then this summer's festivals and events industry will be completely obliterated again for the second year in a row. This really should not be happening.

I do think that if the transmission study which is due back in February shows that vaccinated people are very unlikely to transmit the virus, then things will move faster as more 50+ get vaccinated.

 

[35B]

It will be beyond ridiculous if this a very slow easing and even slower than last year. This year we've got all the millions that have already been vaccinated, and many millions more over the coming months. Therefore the easing really should be a lot more intensive and progressive than last year's slow easing.

If they still keep this social distancing nonsense up for months and months yet, then this summer's festivals and events industry will be completely obliterated again for the second year in a row. This really should not be happening. In a Downing Street Press Conference around September/October last year, Jonathan Van-Tam was asked a question "If a vaccine is found, can social distancing be scrapped?". To which Van Tam replied with "Yes if a vaccine is found, there will be no further requirement for social distancing to continue.". So it will be absolutely ridiculous if by June/July - several months after the vaccinations started back in December, if this social distancing nonsense is still dragging on with no end in sight.

And there’s been no changes or developments of understanding in the time since, for example over the effect of the vaccines on transmissibility?

 

[DB]

And there’s been no changes or developments of understanding in the time since, for example over the effect of the vaccines on transmissibility?

The current situation is actually a bit better than it was then - at the time it was unknown whether vaccines would reduce transmission (and this was mentioned a number of times by the government and its advisors, so it wasn't something which hadn't been considered). Now, although it's not fully confirmed, the evidence is suggesting fairly strongly that they do - so there should be no reason at all for further restrictions than were envisaged then.

But of course, U-turns are the standard mode of operating for Johnson and his cohort.

 

[Crossover]

Jonathan Van-Tam was asked a question "If a vaccine is found, can social distancing be scrapped?". To which Van Tam replied with "Yes if a vaccine is found, there will be no further requirement for social distancing to continue.". So it will be absolutely ridiculous if by June/July - several months after the vaccinations started back in December, if this social distancing nonsense is still dragging on with no end in sight.

Given the number of other "promises" that have been reversed, I'm not taking anything for granted!

 

[hwl]

In a Downing Street Press Conference around September/October last year, Jonathan Van-Tam was asked a question "If a vaccine is found, can social distancing be scrapped?". To which Van Tam replied with "Yes if a vaccine is found, there will be no further requirement for social distancing to continue.". So it will be absolutely ridiculous if by June/July - several months after the vaccinations started back in December, if this social distancing nonsense is still dragging on with no end in sight.

Finding a vaccine isn't much use, the key bit is deploying enough of it (to at least 75% of population*).

The new strains are more transmissible so each restriction removal will increase case numbers more than the older strains would have hence slower relaxation.

*It is also worth remembering that the numbers that get plugged into the herd immunity formula is the effectiveness at reducing transmission for which we don't have the data yet.

 

[Bantamzen]

Finding a vaccine isn't much use, the key bit is deploying enough of it (to at least 75% of population*).

The new strains are more transmissible so each restriction removal will increase case numbers.

*It is also worth remembering that the numbers that get plugged into the herd immunity formula is the effectiveness at reducing transmission for which we don't have the data yet.

I think you mean "The new strains are more transmissible so each restriction removal will increase infection numbers". Being infected does not mean you will fall ill, or even transmit the virus. And as more people are vaccinated & their immune systems alert to it, so the number of people becoming seriously ill will fall, and so the pressure on the NHS will fall.

That is the whole point of the vaccination programme, give the vaccine to those that need it most first, to allow us all to get back to normal sooner.

 

[WelshBluebird]

That is the whole point of the vaccination programme, give the vaccine to those that need it most first, to allow us all to get back to normal sooner.

I guess the argument is about how many people fall into the "who need it most" category.
I think we can all agree that those most likely to die from covid should be in that category.
But where it feels like there is a disagreement is what about people who are likely to become ill, require hospital treatment, but not die.
It feels like this forum wants us to get "back to normal" as soon as those most likely to die are vaccinated, whereas in reality we probably aren't until those who are filling up hospitals (that group does not automatically equal the group most likely to die) are also vaccinated.

 

[Bantamzen]

I guess the argument is about how many people fall into the "who need it most" category.
I think we can all agree that those most likely to die from covid should be in that category.
But where it feels like there is a disagreement is what about people who are likely to become ill, require hospital treatment, but not die.
It feels like this forum wants us to get "back to normal" as soon as those most likely to die are vaccinated, whereas in reality we probably aren't until those who are filling up hospitals (that group does not automatically equal the group most likely to die) are also vaccinated.

Well by now I'm sure behind the headlines the NHS & universities etc are working hard to study who are most likely to suffer most, and use that to reach out to those that will need it most and offer them the vaccine. And the data is starting to show that hospitalisations & number of people in hospital may have peaked, so hopefully we are getting there. However we can't keep moving the goalposts, if these trends keep going in the right direction then armed with that along with the increased number vaccinated people, decisions can & should be made to start to release the restrictions.

 

[Horizon22]

There are some ridiculously aggressive posters on bus stops in London with photos of people being ventilated in hospital saying "Tell me you can't work from home". Which I thought was ridiculous as I was walking to the train station to go to my essential job. Not to mention the fact it's not people required to go into work, it's employers either a) requiring them to or b) because it physically can't be done from home. Perhaps this is to do with the recent stories about TfL trains being packed in the early morning.

 

[yorksrob]

I guess the argument is about how many people fall into the "who need it most" category.
I think we can all agree that those most likely to die from covid should be in that category.
But where it feels like there is a disagreement is what about people who are likely to become ill, require hospital treatment, but not die.
It feels like this forum wants us to get "back to normal" as soon as those most likely to die are vaccinated, whereas in reality we probably aren't until those who are filling up hospitals (that group does not automatically equal the group most likely to die) are also vaccinated.

"Normality" can be delayed. There are a lot of different stages between normality and lockdown - something that the lockdown obsessives deliberately ignore every time.

 

[py_megapixel]

There are some ridiculously aggressive posters on bus stops in London with photos of people being ventilated in hospital saying "Tell me you can't work from home". Which I thought was ridiculous as I was walking to the train station to go to my essential job. Not to mention the fact it's not people required to go into work, it's employers either a) requiring them to or b) because it physically can't be done from home. Perhaps this is to do with the recent stories about TfL trains being packed in the early morning.

I'd be tempted to shout at that, "I can't work from home!"
(Or rather, I wouldn't, because I can, but if I was an essential worker then yes)

This type of ad was cropping up on social media yesterday evening. Typically I can't find an example now, but when I do I'll post it here.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

The one reassuring thing is that there'll have to be very significant easing by June, otherwise it'll be politically impossible for Boris to host the G7 summit with world leaders and thousands of staffers descending on Cornwall.

Will need to find a few hotels for them all to be quarantined first of course!!

 

[duncanp]

Will need to find a few hotels for them all to be quarantined first of course!!

Which leads me to suspect that the hotel quarantine system will be long gone by then, or at least it won't be extended to any country who is a member of the G7. The hotel quarantine system is a piece of political theatre anyway - if we were going to do it, we should have done it long ago.

I think the plan is for the economy to be up and running (schools, shops and pubs open) some time before the G7 summit.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

The new strains are more transmissible so each restriction removal will increase case numbers more than the older strains would have hence slower relaxation.

That certainly was the case in Autumn in L&SE but its not seeded case rates anywhere near as high outside of the SE (some areas were upto 1500/100k but everywhere as been well below 1000/100k and falling) so its certainly been damped down by the lockdown but maybe its also losing its potency as it spread.

 

[DB]

That certainly was the case in Autumn in L&SE but its not seeded case rates anywhere near as high outside of the SE (some areas were upto 1500/100k but everywhere as been well below 1000/100k and falling) so its certainly been damped down by the lockdown but maybe its also losing its potency as it spread.

It doesn't seem clear how much more infectious many of these strains actually are in any case - comparing circulation in the winter with circulation in the summer and autumn is not going to give a clear picture.

 

[hwl]

It feels like this forum wants us to get "back to normal" as soon as those most likely to die are vaccinated, whereas in reality we probably aren't until those who are filling up hospitals (that group does not automatically equal the group most likely to die) are also vaccinated.

Precisely, there is a classic communication and messaging industry bit of thinking that is based around focussing on the first objective (also used in the rail industry e.g. just the next big blockade as part of project not the second or third ones that regular users would like to know about and before the epidemic book a holiday during etc.) and not saying much about the second/ third key objectives until the first is met at which point the second becomes the first etc. and this looks like a classic case of that.

 

[Yew]

Will be really cheesed off if my (domestic) easter holidays trip is cancelled again for the second year in a row. There really is no reason for it.

The easing last year really was too late and I’d have hoped they’d have seen more sense this year especially given the vaccines.

It was vitally important we keep community immunity levels down, as intentionally letting people catch the virus is apparently genocide, whereas it's okay if we increase the chance of the hospitals being overwhelmed.

 

[yorksrob]

Precisely, there is a classic communication and messaging industry bit of thinking that is based around focussing on the first objective (also used in the rail industry e.g. just the next big blockade as part of project not the second or third ones that regular users would like to know about and before the epidemic book a holiday during etc.) and not saying much about the second/ third key objectives until the first is met at which point the second becomes the first etc. and this looks like a classic case of that.

I think it's the opposite to be honest.

There are very few peoplw on this forum calling for all restrictions to be lifted immediately or in one go.

There is a lot of scepticism about lockdown, which in itself is an extreme collection of restrictions, a lot of appetite for strategies and intermediate steps to get out of lockdown.

Unfortunately our best scientific minds seem to have nothing to say, other than lockdown, lockdown and more lockdown.

 

[Yew]

Unfortunately our best scientific minds seem to have nothing to say, other than lockdown, lockdown and more lockdown.

I think calling Witty, Vallance, Shrindhar and Greenhalgh our 'best scientific minds' is very generous.

 

[hwl]

I think it's the opposite to be honest.

There are very few peoplw on this forum calling for all restrictions to be lifted immediately or in one go.

There is a lot of scepticism about lockdown, which in itself is an extreme collection of restrictions, a lot of appetite for strategies and intermediate steps to get out of lockdown.

Unfortunately our best scientific minds seem to have nothing to say, other than lockdown, lockdown and more lockdown.

My point was more that the government has made rod for its own back by focusing the comms strategy on death when it isn't the only issue. Not the first time they have got the comms strategy wrong!

 

[yorksrob]

My point was more that the government has made rod for its own back by focusing the comms strategy on death when it isn't the only issue. Not the first time they have got the comms strategy wrong!

The rod for their back was made by concentrating on lockdown as the only non-pharmaceutical intervention available.

 

[Freightmaster]

My point was more that the government has made rod for its own back by focusing the comms strategy on death when it isn't the only issue. Not the first time they have got the comms strategy wrong!

To be fair to the government (for once!), it's the media who have become obsessed with the daily death figures
at the exclusion of everything else, with screaming "RECORD BREAKING DEATH TOLL" type front page headlines
on several occasions in recent weeks.

This spooks the public, forcing the government to prioritise reducing deaths over absolutely everything else,
including pressure on the NHS which, as you rightly say, should be the primary objective of any interventions
going forward, but unfortunately the death tally is far too emotive to ignore...





MARK

 

[philosopher]

Precisely, there is a classic communication and messaging industry bit of thinking that is based around focussing on the first objective (also used in the rail industry e.g. just the next big blockade as part of project not the second or third ones that regular users would like to know about and before the epidemic book a holiday during etc.) and not saying much about the second/ third key objectives until the first is met at which point the second becomes the first etc. and this looks like a classic case of that.

The issue to me is the goalposts regarding lockdown keep being moved:
At the end of last year the purpose of lockdown was to prevent the NHS from being overwhelmed.
At the beginning of this year the purpose of lockdown was to buy time for the four highest priority groups to be vaccinated.
Now the purpose of lockdown seems to be to buy time for the four highest priority groups to be vaccinated and to wait to see if it actually reduces hospitalisations. This is despite vaccine stage 3 trial and data from Israel indicating that this almost certainly is going to be the case.

If it was a case of ending the lockdown once the hospitals are no longer under pressure and the putting everywhere in tier three and then gradually easing the restrictions over the Spring and Summer as more and more get vaccinated I could understand. However now it seems an easing of lockdown will not even be considered until they have proof that vaccines work.

 

[35B]

I think calling Witty, Vallance, Shrindhar and Greenhalgh our 'best scientific minds' is very generous.

I'd consider it even more generous to ascribe the label to Yeadon, Heneghan or Sunetra Gupta.

 

[DB]

I'd consider it even more generous to ascribe the label to Yeadon, Heneghan or Sunetra Gupta.

Why?

Heneghan in particular is very good at backing up his points with actual data.

 

[Carlisle]

"Normality" can be delayed. There are a lot of different stages between normality and lockdown - something that the lockdown obsessives deliberately ignore every time.

Absolutely, some European countries allow shops to open during the day alongside a nighttime curfew. We could’ve at least trailed that somewhere instead of just decimating every High Street

 

[Solent&Wessex]

If it was a case of ending the lockdown once the hospitals are no longer under pressure and the putting everywhere in tier three and then gradually easing the restrictions over the Spring and Summer as more and more get vaccinated I could understand. However now it seems an easing of lockdown will not even be considered until they have proof that vaccines work.

The problem is that the hospitals will always be under pressure.

They will continue to be under pressure until some weeks after most people over 40 are vaccinated. This probably won't be until mid to late summer. Then they will be under pressure catching up with all the things which have been ignored whilst nothing else mattered except Covid. Then it will be the winter flu / covid season again so they will be under pressure then.

If we waited until the hospitals were no longer under pressure we'd never end lockdown and restrictions.

 

[yorksrob]

The problem is that the hospitals will always be under pressure.

They will continue to be under pressure until some weeks after most people over 40 are vaccinated. This probably won't be until mid to late summer. Then they will be under pressure catching up with all the things which have been ignored whilst nothing else mattered except Covid. Then it will be the winter flu / covid season again so they will be under pressure then.

If we waited until the hospitals were no longer under pressure we'd never end lockdown and restrictions.

Indeed. The only way to combat this is to continue to ramp up capacity, including employing the missing staff, increasing the missing bed capacity, purchasing the missing machines and getting up to European style coverage of the population - something that all major Governments have failed at over the last twenty years.

Shutting down the country permanently is not an option.