New lockdown in England, including school closures, announced by Johnson, 4/1/21

[HLE]

Wonder whether he'll get any opposition over that in February if numbers are declining fast?

Not from labour at least. Starmer to me seems to love lockdown. After all under Corbyn it seened a socialist party in all but name who's main principles are state control.

 

[WelshBluebird]

But the explicit mention of the 8th March today does make me wonder if they're going to try to do effectively exactly the same again.

That is what made me reference the post really. Just seems like an oddly specific date to mention otherwise, unless there is something I am missing!

 

[DB]

Not from labour at least. Starmer to me seems to love lockdown. After all under Corbyn it seened a socialist party in all but name who's main principles are state control.

What Corbyn did or didn't want is irrelevant (and, despite being no great fan of him, I think you are exaggerating) - he's not in charge any more.

I do agree that they can't expect any opposition from Labour though - if it comes, it'll be from Tory backbenchers and possibly the DUP.

 

[MikeWM]

That is what made me reference the post really. Just seems like an oddly specific date to mention otherwise, unless there is something I am missing!

I just looked at the calendar and tried to do about the same amount of time 8th April (peak of deaths in first lockdown) - 1st June (first day 'you must not be outside our home unless...' stopped being operative) to 19th January (probable peak of deaths in current lockdown) - X.

Now I've worked it out properly, that turns out to be March 14th - so push everything I said back a week :-/

 

[brad465]

Based on a post in one of the other threads, the lockdown starting to end on the 8th March would put us basically bang on in terms of timings from the first lockdown last year - https://www.railforums.co.uk/thread...ncing-go-on-for-in-the-uk.206084/post-4967908.

Not claiming the post is accurate - but an interesting observation, especially to those who think a 9 week lockdown is "absolutely crazy" as the above post does - it may be that depending on your opinion, but at least according to what was posted in the other thread, it does match what happened last year.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but IIRC from the message changed to "stay alert" 6.5 weeks after the 23rd March, not 9, then it was a further 3 weeks before shops reopened, along with limited school reopening.

 

[MikeWM]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but IIRC from the message changed to "stay alert" 6.5 weeks after the 23rd March, not 9, then it was a further 3 weeks before shops reopened, along with limited school reopening.

The message changed mid-May but the 'you must not leave your house except' legislation stayed in place until June 1st, though with more exceptions to allow travel to open places for recreation etc.

Shops reopened June 15th (the same day masks on transport became mandatory).

I'm not sure of the dates for schools, sorry.

 

[brad465]

The message changed mid-May but the 'you must not leave your house except' legislation stayed in place until June 1st, though with more exceptions to allow travel to open places for recreation etc.

Shops reopened June 15th (the same day masks on transport became mandatory).

I'm not sure of the dates for schools, sorry.

Ah right, I'm hoping they might do the same with the February announcement when it comes to recreation limit relaxations; it didn't cause cases to go back up when they did relax this.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

Based on a post in one of the other threads, the lockdown starting to end on the 8th March would put us basically bang on in terms of timings from the first lockdown last year - https://www.railforums.co.uk/thread...ncing-go-on-for-in-the-uk.206084/post-4967908.

Not claiming the post is accurate - but an interesting observation, especially to those who think a 9 week lockdown is "absolutely crazy" as the above post does - it may be that depending on your opinion, but at least according to what was posted in the other thread, it does match what happened last year.

Whats crazy is why there waiting til 22 Feb before even declaring what the roadmap is - remember we don't know what it will say and other than a target for schools you can be sure it will have controls on well beyond Easter so 13-14weeks at the earliest potentially significantly longer than last year. JVT on tonights briefing said it was hospital admission rates that were the clear signal for him. Well they are falling now although its frustrating the data is never upto date but as usual they never give a figure there looking for as that would put them on the spot if it comes sooner than forecast.

The CRG need to up the ante over this as this is mission creep now with a covert goal of zero Covid creeping in.

 

[RomeoCharlie71]

The CRG need to up the ante over this as this is mission creep now with a covert goal of zero Covid creeping in.

I'm glad I'm not the only one who's noticed this. Especially as Nicola Sturgeon was asked re timescales of hotel quarantine today, she compared it to New Zealand and how their borders are likely to be shut for the rest of the year. This made me think there's now a case for zero-covid in the UK as she's wanting to keep the border closed as long as possible.

I suppose in more positive terms it'll boost the UK economy as families won't be holidaying off to Spain this year if the hotel quarantine remains in place (it's likely Scotland will strengthen the measures by applying hotel quarantine to all countries next week).

 

[Huntergreed]

I'm glad I'm not the only one who's noticed this. Especially as Nicola Sturgeon was asked re timescales of hotel quarantine today, she compared it to New Zealand and how their borders are likely to be shut for the rest of the year. This made me think there's now a case for zero-covid in the UK as she's wanting to keep the border closed as long as possible.

I suppose in more positive terms it'll boost the UK economy as families won't be holidaying off to Spain this year if the hotel quarantine remains in place (it's likely Scotland will strengthen the measures by applying hotel quarantine to all countries next week).

It's obvious Sturgeon wants to go for Zero COVID. She's been banging on about elimination since last year, it's hardly shocking she'll want to do this (now why would she want to do that?? There's nothing significant on her mind which she needs to try and win public opinion over for this year, is there?)

 

[yorksrob]

I suppose in more positive terms it'll boost the UK economy as families won't be holidaying off to Spain this year if the hotel quarantine remains in place (it's likely Scotland will strengthen the measures by applying hotel quarantine to all countries next week).

That's assuming we're actually allowed further than down the end of the road at anytime, or if anything's allowed to open.

 

[takno]

I suppose in more positive terms it'll boost the UK economy as families won't be holidaying off to Spain this year if the hotel quarantine remains in place (it's likely Scotland will strengthen the measures by applying hotel quarantine to all countries next week).

It's not much of a boost to the UK economy if foreign tourists can't come over. You're talking about a few disappointed miserable families, probably spending the last 400 quid of their last furlough money on a week in a static caravan. It doesn't really compare to the amount we manage to drag out of rich Americans at the Edinburgh Festival.

 

[MikeWM]

It's not much of a boost to the UK economy if foreign tourists can't come over. You're talking about a few disappointed miserable families, probably spending the last 400 quid of their last furlough money on a week in a static caravan. It doesn't really compare to the amount we manage to drag out of rich Americans at the Edinburgh Festival.

Or indeed Japanese and Chinese tourists in places such as Cambridge.

 

[brad465]

Whats crazy is why there waiting til 22 Feb before even declaring what the roadmap is - remember we don't know what it will say and other than a target for schools you can be sure it will have controls on well beyond Easter so 13-14weeks at the earliest potentially significantly longer than last year. JVT on tonights briefing said it was hospital admission rates that were the clear signal for him. Well they are falling now although its frustrating the data is never upto date but as usual they never give a figure there looking for as that would put them on the spot if it comes sooner than forecast.

The CRG need to up the ante over this as this is mission creep now with a covert goal of zero Covid creeping in.

Something that might help create resentment to Zero Covid is the fact Jeremy Corbyn endorses it, which, given his unpopularity, will likely cause others to disagree just by way of virtue, if it's made widely known he supports that. There's also the March budget that should be used to send alarm bells.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

It's obvious Sturgeon wants to go for Zero COVID. She's been banging on about elimination since last year, it's hardly shocking she'll want to do this (now why would she want to do that?? There's nothing significant on her mind which she needs to try and win public opinion over for this year, is there?)

This may backfire on her big time come the elections though if she hangs on even longer the London lot

 

[Solent&Wessex]

Whats crazy is why there waiting til 22 Feb before even declaring what the roadmap is - remember we don't know what it will say and other than a target for schools you can be sure it will have controls on well beyond Easter so 13-14weeks at the earliest potentially significantly longer than last year. JVT on tonights briefing said it was hospital admission rates that were the clear signal for him. Well they are falling now although its frustrating the data is never upto date but as usual they never give a figure there looking for as that would put them on the spot if it comes sooner than forecast.

The CRG need to up the ante over this as this is mission creep now with a covert goal of zero Covid creeping in.

There certainly is mission creep.

Has anyone else noticed that the official government figures showing rapidly falling case rates are now basically being called unreliable and incorrect in some quarters? Valance made reference to this at least once if not twice tonight and hinted that we should start using the more accurate ONS figures in cases and infections.

Of course it just so happens that the ONS figures show case rates to be higher and falling less quickly than the government daily dashboard and if used would present a better argument for being more cautious and not lifting restrictions.

Mission creep is also moving the goalposts in respect of deaths and infections. Not that long ago it was "if we vaccinate the top 4 cohorts that will stop 80% of deaths so we can then lift restrictions". Now it is "if we vaccinate the top 4 cohorts that will stop 80% of deaths so then we can start to think about lifting restrictions but only if case rates are very low and we can see the vaccine having an effect on transmission".

 

[DB]

Mission creep is also moving the goalposts in respect of deaths and infections. Not that long ago it was "if we vaccinate the top 4 cohorts that will stop 80% of deaths so we can then lift restrictions". Now it is "if we vaccinate the top 4 cohorts that will stop 80% of deaths so then we can start to think about lifting restrictions but only if case rates are very low and we can see the vaccine having an effect on transmission".

Indeed - the goalposts are forever on the move. The only thing which is clear is that those who are keen on restrictions will keep on moving the goalposts into positions which suit their ideology.

 

[brad465]

There certainly is mission creep.

Has anyone else noticed that the official government figures showing rapidly falling case rates are now basically being called unreliable and incorrect in some quarters? Valance made reference to this at least once if not twice tonight and hinted that we should start using the more accurate ONS figures in cases and infections.

Of course it just so happens that the ONS figures show case rates to be higher and falling less quickly than the government daily dashboard and if used would present a better argument for being more cautious and not lifting restrictions.

Mission creep is also moving the goalposts in respect of deaths and infections. Not that long ago it was "if we vaccinate the top 4 cohorts that will stop 80% of deaths so we can then lift restrictions". Now it is "if we vaccinate the top 4 cohorts that will stop 80% of deaths so then we can start to think about lifting restrictions but only if case rates are very low and we can see the vaccine having an effect on transmission".

It will be interesting to see what happens if the next ONS release on Friday shows a marked decline in infections compared to the previous release and what they have to say about that. What I can certainly see happening though is when the number of new infections goes down more slowly that they sell this as complacency, when actually it could well just be normal behaviour in exponential decay.

 

[bramling]

It's not much of a boost to the UK economy if foreign tourists can't come over. You're talking about a few disappointed miserable families, probably spending the last 400 quid of their last furlough money on a week in a static caravan. It doesn't really compare to the amount we manage to drag out of rich Americans at the Edinburgh Festival.

This post cracked me up properly! Absolutely bang on the money with that summary.

 

[brad465]

The REACT study in my view has to be the most dubious of all the surveys/studies for Covid infections currently done in this country, and/or have the most pessimistic conclusions. In their latest data they say infection levels are going in the right direction, "but not fast enough". If lockdown is having an effect, it would not show up immediately, given the known lag time. Also what I seem to be getting from this is they survey people over the 2 weeks, summarise the findings and compare the survey period as one block to a previous block in their study, if that makes sense. The issue here is that the 6-22 January block is the period other sources agree that infections were rising, peaking and then falling all within it (e.g. ZOE peaked on the 11th):

Covid: 'Virus going in right direction but not fast enough'

Coronavirus infections are still at very high levels in many regions, a study estimates.

www.bbc.co.uk

Scientists behind a study tracking coronavirus in England say there are signs of a "shallow decline" in infection levels but they remain high.

And with not all regions seeing the same downward trend, pressure on health services is likely to continue.

Some 1.57% of people had had the virus between 6 and 22 January - slightly down from 1.58% in early January, the researchers said.

The estimate is based on swab tests of 168,000 people in households.

 

[Philip]

Considering factors like the increased numbers of cars on the road and the increased numbers of people going to work now compared to in lockdown 1, as well as this being a more infectious variant and it being a lot colder now than it was in lockdown 1, the ONS/REACT figures seem more realistic than the big drop in the official government figures. But there may be other more unknown factors at work like the increased immunity levels we now have compared to then, contributing to the steep decline in the official figures.

Should have a better idea over the next week, as it's over 2 weeks now since reported cases started declining rapidly, so if this is the accurate picture then it should also be starting to show in notably declining hospital admissions about now. This graph shows there has been a bit of a reduction in admissions over a few days from a very high point, but the data is only up to the start of this week.

Official UK Coronavirus Dashboard

GOV.UK Coronavirus dashboard

coronavirus.data.gov.uk

 

[Mojo]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but IIRC from the message changed to "stay alert" 6.5 weeks after the 23rd March, not 9, then it was a further 3 weeks before shops reopened, along with limited school reopening.

I believe it was on the 9th May that the message was changed, or at least unveiled. This was the same day that it was announced that certain shops were allowed to reopen from the 13th May. This was homeware shops (currently required to be closed), and garden centres (currently allowed to remain open). Not sure if any other shops were given the go ahead to open that week or if they had to wait until the June reopening.

 

[duncanp]

Considering factors like the increased numbers of cars on the road and the increased numbers of people going to work now compared to in lockdown 1, as well as this being a more infectious variant and it being a lot colder now than it was in lockdown 1, the ONS/REACT figures seem more realistic than the big drop in the official government figures. But there may be other more unknown factors at work like the increased immunity levels we now have compared to then, contributing to the steep decline in the official figures.

Should have a better idea over the next week, as it's over 2 weeks now since reported cases started declining rapidly, so if this is the accurate picture then it should also be starting to show in notably declining hospital admissions about now. This graph shows there has been a bit of a reduction in admissions over a few days from a very high point, but the data is only up to the start of this week.

Official UK Coronavirus Dashboard

GOV.UK Coronavirus dashboard

coronavirus.data.gov.uk

I think the point about the ONS/REACT figures is that, even if infections remain high, the drop in the number of people testing positive is much larger.

Therefore a lot of the infections referred to in the ONS/REACT study must be either asymptomatic, or sufficiently mild that people don't even feel the need to get tested, let alone go to hospital.

The number of people testing positive is falling quite quickly (down nearly 30% week on week according to the latest figures) and test positivity is now below 5%, the level at which the WHO considers a pandemic to be under control.

Hospital admissions are falling, and even the total number of patients in hospital has fallen by 4% from its peak on 18th January. From now on we should see the number of people discharged exceed the number of people admitted, so the number of patients in hospital should start falling more rapidly.

Even deaths have peaked, especially when you look at the graph of deaths within 28 days of a positive test by date of death, rather than by date reported. By date of death, the graph is showing a steep decline, and by date reported the graph has plateaued and has just started to fall.

I think the government are right to wait a few more weeks to see whether these trends are maintained, but if they are, then by the date of the lockdown review there should be enough data to justify reopening schools on 8th March (if only partially), and to give likely dates for reopening non essential shops and pubs.

 

[yorksrob]

I think the point about the ONS/REACT figures is that, even if infections remain high, the drop in the number of people testing positive is much larger.

Therefore a lot of the infections referred to in the ONS/REACT study must be either asymptomatic, or sufficiently mild that people don't even feel the need to get tested, let alone go to hospital.

The number of people testing positive is falling quite quickly (down nearly 30% week on week according to the latest figures) and test positivity is now below 5%, the level at which the WHO considers a pandemic to be under control.

Hospital admissions are falling, and even the total number of patients in hospital has fallen by 4% from its peak on 18th January. From now on we should see the number of people discharged exceed the number of people admitted, so the number of patients in hospital should start falling more rapidly.

Even deaths have peaked, especially when you look at the graph of deaths within 28 days of a positive test by date of death, rather than by date reported. By date of death, the graph is showing a steep decline, and by date reported the graph has plateaued and has just started to fall.

I think the government are right to wait a few more weeks to see whether these trends are maintained, but if they are, then by the date of the lockdown review there should be enough data to justify reopening schools on 8th March (if only partially), and to give likely dates for reopening non essential shops and pubs.

They need to be scrapping "stay at home" at the first opportunity. This never gets mentioned - everything's always about schools.

 

[chris11256]

According to the Telegraph the lockdown will be eased in three stages. Schools in March, non essential retail in April and hospitality in May.

Full article is behind a paywall.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politic...wont-open-march-8-earliest-says-boris-johnson

Revealed: 'Three-stage' plan to end lockdown in Britain​

Officials prefer phased approach to opening up, which would see restrictions released at least a month apart so the impact can be monitored
Schools will not open until March at the earliest, Boris Johnson has said, as the Government works on a "three-stage plan" to release Britain from lockdown

Although I assume this timeline could be changed if the transmissions study reports significant cuts in the transmission of the virus be vaccinated people.

 

[DB]

According to the Telegraph the lockdown will be eased in three stages. Schools in March, non essential retail in April and hospitality in May.

Full article is behind a paywall.



Although I assume this timeline could be changed if the transmissions study reports significant cuts in the transmission of the virus be vaccinated people.

Timed to coincide exactly with the end of the winter virus season, so that they government can claim responsibility...

Of course, they have no concern at all as to what another three or four months of enforced closure will do to the hospitality industry.

 

[Class 33]

I hope when Johnson does publish/announce the "roadmap" out of lockdown and restrictions on 22nd February, that it is a lot more thorough and progressive than the easing of lockdown and restrictions last year. If I remember rightly, the first easing of lockdown last year on 1st May(or around that date) was that the first retail businesses to allowed to reopen were just garden centres and car show rooms!! And also just a relaxing on rules of exercise to increase to unlimited exercise rather than just once per day. I sincerely hope that the first easing of lockdown this year is better than that! More retail businesses and venues such as gyms, spas, etc really ought to be allowed to re-open in March. The government and others keep going on about the importance of schools and education for children, and that schools will be the first to reopen. Well that's fair enough, but there are also lots of other important businesses that deserve to be able to reopen too! So I hope the first easing of lockdown will be more than just schools allowed to reopen!!

Also last year's easing of lockdown, it wasn't announced until about July or August that non-essential travel for leisure purposes was officially allowed! Though it turned out it was published in the small print of the guidelines around the time of the June easing that this was allowed, and the government were hardly shouting about it from the rooftops! I didn't find this out until someone on this forum mentioned it to me!

And also hope in this "roadmap" there is something about when social distancing can either be scrapped or at least a plan of easing the guidelines on it over the coming few months. For many businesses in the hospitality, leisure, travel, events/festivals industry, social distancing is an absolute killer for them. It's financially unviable for them to operate with social distancing, and for some it's just downright impossible to operate. We really need to see this social distancing nonsense finally scrapped within the next few months really. If it does drag on into the summer with still no end in sight, this will be completely ridiculous and unacceptable.

Last year's easing of lockdown and restrictions was at a time when all the case numbers/hospital numbers/deaths were coming down. We've got all these stats coming down now, and certainly they'll be much better by early March. But this time we've also got the benefit of the millions of people that have already been vaccinated, and many more millions over the coming months. So this year the roadmap out of lockdown and restrictions really needs to be a hell of a lot more better and progressive than last year.

 

[chris11256]

Timed to coincide exactly with the end of the winter virus season, so that they government can claim responsibility...

Of course, they have no concern at all as to what another three or four months of enforced closure will do to the hospitality industry.

Exactly. I'd also like to think it's more detailed than just opening shops and restaurants, it needs to include the removal of all restrictions.

Even this roadmap suggests staycations won't be possible over the Easter Holidays.

 

[philosopher]

Exactly. I'd also like to think it's more detailed than just opening shops and restaurants, it needs to include the removal of all restrictions.

Even this roadmap suggests staycations won't be possible over the Easter Holidays.

From what I can read it seems a very slow easing, probably slower than that after the Spring 2020 lockdown. If they stuck to the same timeframe of the easing last year between May and July, then hospitality should open in mid April.

Also will they allow unlimited recreation in March, like what was the case in the second half of May last year?

 

[chris11256]

From what I can read it seems a very slow easing, probably slower than that after the Spring 2020 lockdown. If they stuck to the same timeframe of the easing last year between May and July, then hospitality should open in mid April.

Also will they allow unlimited recreation in March, like what was the case in the second half of May last year?

The one reassuring thing is that there'll have to be very significant easing by June, otherwise it'll be politically impossible for Boris to host the G7 summit with world leaders and thousands of staffers descending on Cornwall.