Plaid vote for Wales Rail

[MidnightFlyer]

Not in the schedules....

Hm, Interesting

 

[merlodlliw]

Am sure these are just provisional - there's no way they'd omit Cwmbran, which is bigger than anywhere in North Wales and clearly has a much better need of trains to Cardiff.

So if its trains to Cardiff, from as you say bigger than anywhere in North Wales
I note the Wag mark one Gerald ignores this stop on its up journey, and only stops at Cwmbran on the down because it replaced a DMU path.

Why does Cwmbran have a much better need of a Premier First Class service to Cardiff, its just down the road

 

[Greenback]

I think I'd have to question that Cwmbran is bigger than anywhere in North Wales - on what basis are we judging it?

 

[merlodlliw]

You must a shed full of them merlodlliw!

Not quite a shedfull, but they are made in the pots, so excellent earthenware
not China of course or made in that land.

You should try one

 

[tbtc]

I think I'd have to question that Cwmbran is bigger than anywhere in North Wales - on what basis are we judging it?

Going by the 2001 population stats from the ever-reliable (!) Wikepedia, Cwmbran is bigger than anywhere in North Wales

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_settlements_in_Wales_by_population

Rank Urban settlement Population 2001
1 Cardiff 292,150
2 Swansea 169,880
3 Newport 116,143
4 Rhondda 59,602
5 Barry 50,661
6 Cwmbran 47,254
7 Llanelli 46,357
8 Neath 45,898
9 Wrexham 42,576
10 Bridgend 39,429

I accept that there are always "ifs and buts" to these stats (where does one town start and another one end...), but there's definitely more demand for Cwmbran - Cardiff travel than Wrexham - Cardiff travel

Some interesting stats on there - I always thought Merthyr was bigger, for example

 

[Gareth Marston]

I think I'd have to question that Cwmbran is bigger than anywhere in North Wales - on what basis are we judging it?

Cardiff, Swansea and Newport are 100K plus settlements in Wales but your next tranche are all roughly similar in the mid 40K's these include in no particular order, Llanelli, Neath, Bridgend, Barry, Merthyr, Cwmbran and Wrexham. Hereford is similar in size. Shrewsbury and Chester are 70K and 80K respectively much larger than these but not quite city size. There are those that argue that the Rhondda can be classed as one area of c60K. And Neath!!!

In the 30 to 40K range you have Port Talbot, Penarth, Pontypridd, Caerphilly, Pontypool, Colwyn Bay, Rhyl and if you count Deeside as one entity Deeside.

The 20- 30K range settlements are Maesteg, Llandudno, Bangor, Ebbw Vale, Risca and Aberystwyth. In short there's only 20 places in Wales of over 20K population in their own right. However whilst somewhere like Bristol is larger than Cardiff on its own, Cardiff has a large number of smaller towns surrounding it giving it a more populous hinterland than Bristol and therefore making a greater demand for commuting and other travel into it.

 

[MidnightFlyer]

like i said, its more connect the north and south, only 1tp2h, cwmbran has hourly at least.

 

[tbtc]

like i said, its more connect the north and south, only 1tp2h

...that's still more than some parts of Wales, which have no direct trains to Cardiff.

When there's an a train every two hours, plus one "posh" train a day, why does Holyhead need a further "posh" train to Cardiff when other towns have no direct train to the capital?

 

[MidnightFlyer]

...that's still more than some parts of Wales, which have no direct trains to Cardiff.

When there's an a train every two hours, plus one "posh" train a day, why does Holyhead need a further "posh" train to Cardiff when other towns have no direct train to the capital?

I assume there's a lot more business (ie. 1st class) from holyhead, bangor, Llandudno, rhyl etc

 

[The Planner]

only stops at Cwmbran on the down because it replaced a DMU path.

Why does Cwmbran have a much better need of a Premier First Class service to Cardiff, its just down the road

Answered your own question there, the first class bit is imaterial.

 

[Gareth Marston]

If you look at the service frequency of other similar sized towns in the arc around Cardiff is pretty clear that those in Torfaen County (Cwmbran and Pontypool and New Inn) are relatively poorly served hence getting Gerald 1 or 2 to stop is an easy way of filling the gaps.

The local services north of Newport were stripped out in the 60's and Pontypool disconnected from the network (the ex Pontypool Road station says it all by its name - its not in Pontypool). Indeed the service from Newport to Blaenavon which was hourly in frequency in steam days used a line a mile or 2 west of the Marches route which serves the population distribution much better. A local service today serving Caerleon, Llantarnam, Cwmbran Sebastopool, Griffithstown, Pontypool, Aberyschan and Blaenavaon would serve a population equal to any on the Cardiff Valleys. Likewise Swansea lost all its potential Valley Lines equivalents. The closed southern half of the Central Wales Line would be similar in profile and includes one the largest towns in Wales with no railway- Gorsenion.

 

[merlodlliw]

, but there's definitely more demand for Cwmbran - Cardiff travel than Wrexham - Cardiff travel

Some interesting stats on there - I always thought Merthyr was bigger, for example[/QUOTE] TBTC

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Of course there will be a bigger demand for travel from a town within a few miles of Cardiff to Central station, than Wrexham to Cardiff 160 miles away.
Likewise there is a bigger demand from Wrexham to Chester/Manchester/Liverpool. But only an hourly service.

From the stats I too am surprised, I thought Aberystwyth with its students was bigger than 15K, Yet on another set of stats Wrexham as the smallest
in area electoral constituency in Wales due to the denseness of population. So stats can do anything.

The push from north to South (HDD/CDF) is of course political, not for the benefit of the majority of travellers in North East Wales.
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---

I assume there's a lot more business (ie. 1st class) from holyhead, bangor, Llandudno, rhyl etc

Gerald mark two, if it ever happens will be of no benefit to business travellers arriving in CDF at noon, or is the current ex HDD at 0530 too early for the A,Ms
and staff, some of whom live in an unreal world during there 3 day week.

my opinion

 

[Greenback]

A few things are obvious from the statistics. Firstly, they refer to urban population, and I;m not sure how that impacts on the figures. For instance, Llanelli is administratively split into urban and rural councils, and I believe that including the latter increases the population to around 60000.

Secondly, catchment area needs to be taken into account. i imagine that somewhere like Bangor will have a larger area of custoemrs tod raw upon than Cwmbran. (It's got a University, and is the natural railhead for a lot of Gwynedd including Caernarfon).

Having said that, yes, there will undoubtedly be a greater demand for travel from Cwmbran to and from Cardiff. The provision of service to Cwmbran, Pontypool and Abergavenny is also worse than to places in the Cardif Valleys. This would have been provided by a local service in times past!

I agree with those that have questioned the timings for the new WAG. It seems pretty pointless puttin gon a premium train with a midday arrival. Who is going to use it? I also thought the idea was to have a train from Cardiff in the morning, returning from North Wales in the evening.

 

[tbtc]

The provision of service to Cwmbran, Pontypool and Abergavenny is also worse than to places in the Cardif Valleys. This would have been provided by a local service in times past!

Yeah, the Abergavenny route has got a poor deal because its part of a longer distance route. This means trains on it are dependant upon Hereford/ Shrewsbury/ Crewe/ Chester, unlike a "self contained" Valley line which can maintain the same frequency all day long. Also, the Abergavenny/ Cwmbran (etc) passengers may struggle for seats, unlike travellers from a similar distance away on a Valley route
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---

Likewise there is a bigger demand from Wrexham to Chester/Manchester/Liverpool. But only an hourly service

An hourly service to Chester, but no through trains to Manchester or Liverpool.

It's frustrating when the railways can't find a way of meeting obvious demand - if there were resources for a Manchester - Warrington - Chester - Wrexham service each hour (co-ordinated with the Manchester - Llandudno train) then I reckon it'd be very popular. But politicians aren't going to demand those kind of links.

 

[merlodlliw]

A lot of the problems stem from politicians interference,when Molds Clwyd County Council members voted to single the track from Wrexham to Chester
with only the two Wrexham members voting against, no notice was taken of Wrexham Maelor Councils objections.
After the single line was installed, a two hour service was run by BR & a consented effort to do away with the line, in effect the population of North Wales largest town decided to scrub rail travel on dirty,unreliable dmus.
It will take a lot of effort to get the local population back on the rails, and we still have Politicians playing with the Railway in Wales, I have yet to meet anyone except the Minister who thinks another premier service is wanted to run Cardiff.

 

[pablo]

BtG said,"I certainly didnt realise the WAG is subsidising air travel, that sounds very hard to justify given that air already has a huge subsidy due to lack of any tax on the fuel. Now this out in the open there will be widespread opposition to it, especially in view of growing awareness re climate change / energy security. I would have thought that spending the same money on rail investment would a stronger cost-benefit ratio"

The subsidy was £800K pa initially; not a lot in context. Also, can we put the Avtur ghost to bed? Whilst it is true Avtur doesn't carry duty it does attract VAT, which is not recoverable because airfares are Exempt and it cannot be offset.
Instead the Governmint imposed APD on the airlines as a subsitute for Avtur duty, because they can't tax it by International Treaty (and most would simply uplift elsewhere). Avgas is taxed and VATed. APD was a per 'plane tax but is now a per pax tax. Evens up the equation a bit.
BTW how do you C/B a transit time of 45mins against - how many hours HYD to CDF?

 

[merlodlliw]

BtG said,"I certainly didnt realise the WAG is subsidising air travel, that sounds very hard to justify given that air already has a huge subsidy due to lack of any tax on the fuel. Now this out in the open there will be widespread opposition to it, especially in view of growing awareness re climate change / energy security. I would have thought that spending the same money on rail investment would a stronger cost-benefit ratio"

The subsidy was £800K pa initially; not a lot in context. Also, can we put the Avtur ghost to bed? Whilst it is true Avtur doesn't carry duty it does attract VAT, which is not recoverable because airfares are Exempt and it cannot be offset.
Instead the Governmint imposed APD on the airlines as a subsitute for Avtur duty, because they can't tax it by International Treaty (and most would simply uplift elsewhere). Avgas is taxed and VATed. APD was a per 'plane tax but is now a per pax tax. Evens up the equation a bit.
BTW how do you C/B a transit time of 45mins against - how many hours HYD to CDF?

You obviously know a lot about tax Pablo, however the Minister wont disclose the current Air subsidy believed well over £1M a year,why he hides this fact leads to suspicion
Anyhow as far as transit time is concerned, the aircraft as very few seats,but Gerald can carry a great deal more in his coaches, which is probably more green, if thats what we are on about. BTW the aircraft used as less than 18 seats , so no passenger duty is payable.

 

[pablo]

Jetstream 31 and Dornier 228; both 19 pax. It's not the criterion anyhow, which is, "a commercial flight", as defined in Notice 550.
And the C/B ratio is?

 

[merlodlliw]

Jetstream 31 and Dornier 228; both 19 pax. It's not the criterion anyhow, which is, "a commercial flight", as defined in Notice 550.
And the C/B ratio is?

Well Pablo we are getting very deep, as Aircraft our not my main interest, ill let you work out the ratios.

 

[Gareth Marston]

An hourly service to Chester, but no through trains to Manchester or Liverpool.

It's frustrating when the railways can't find a way of meeting obvious demand - if there were resources for a Manchester - Warrington - Chester - Wrexham service each hour (co-ordinated with the Manchester - Llandudno train) then I reckon it'd be very popular. But politicians aren't going to demand those kind of links.[/QUOTE]

Wrexham's natural flow of traffic is into NW England- its geography. They didn't build a dual carriageway to Cardiff it goes to the North West!
The Northern Hub proposal of 6 TPE per hr with 1 terminating in Chester should consider extending the terminating point to Wrexham. It will do more for Wrexhams business, economy and connectivity than increasing the number of direct trains to Cardiff.

Likewise there should be a local service between Abergavenny and Cardiff including a reopened station at Caerleon at least. The current fudge with long distance services is bad for the long distance traveler and the commuter.

 

[merlodlliw]

Wrexham's natural flow of traffic is into NW England- its geography. They didn't build a dual carriageway to Cardiff it goes to the North West!
The Northern Hub proposal of 6 TPE per hr with 1 terminating in Chester should consider extending the terminating point to Wrexham. It will do more for Wrexhams business, economy and connectivity than increasing the number of direct trains to Cardiff. end quote Gareth Marston
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Fully agree,

 

[tbtc]

Wrexham's natural flow of traffic is into NW England- its geography. They didn't build a dual carriageway to Cardiff it goes to the North West!

The Northern Hub proposal of 6 TPE per hr with 1 terminating in Chester should consider extending the terminating point to Wrexham. It will do more for Wrexhams business, economy and connectivity than increasing the number of direct trains to Cardiff.

Likewise there should be a local service between Abergavenny and Cardiff including a reopened station at Caerleon at least. The current fudge with long distance services is bad for the long distance traveler and the commuter.

Spot on

Its a bit like Alnmouth and Mussleburgh, which ought to have a frequent service to Newcastle and Edinburgh respectively, but don't because they are on a long distance line.

Abergavenny - Cardiff should be equivalent to Valley Line frequencies (on top of the long distance services), and Wrexham should have some direct service to Liverpool/ Manchester. What we have at the moment is a fudge that suits few people

Sadly the railways have fudged things in the past by combining local services with long distance services and ending up with what is (as they say in Yorkshire) neither nowt nor summat

 

[Greenback]

Too right. There should be a half hourly local service to Abergavenny, and (t least hourly) through trains from Wrexham to Manchester!

 

[thefab444]

Its a bit like Alnmouth and Mussleburgh, which ought to have a frequent service to Newcastle and Edinburgh respectively, but don't because they are on a long distance line.

Musselburgh gets an hourly service to Edinburgh, if hourly constitutes frequent.