How much longer will social distancing go on for in the UK?

[greyman42]

Now the weather has turned damp, one wonders how many mould-infested masks are being used?

About the same as before the weather turned damp as in most of them.

 

[kristiang85]

level 0 is groups of up to 15 can meet, social distancing and masks indoor but everything else is largely unrestricted

OK thanks for clarifying. Looks like no big events until a vaccine then (including weddings, etc.)?

 

[Class 33]

An article I have just spotted from the Bristol Post...

Deal to end lockdown in March as 3.5million have now had vaccine

"We can see the way out of this pandemic. We are nearly on the home straight."

www.bristolpost.co.uk

Deal to end lockdown in March as 3.5million have now had vaccine

"We can see the way out of this pandemic. We are nearly on the home straight."

The Sunday Times said a “Cabinet deal” has been done to approve a three-point plan for lifting coronavirus restrictions from early March.

The move would mean lockdown restrictions starting to lift in England after a review on February 22 - as Boris Johnson announced when he put the country into lockdown at the start of January.

Experts have made it clear not all lockdown rules will be lifted at once, with some measures needed until the autumn

This week, the prime minister said there were signs the lockdown was beginning to work, and he said that the roll-out of the vaccine could also allow for measures to be lifted.

The Government aims to have the most vulnerable in the UK vaccinated by February 15.

The key barometers to lifting lockdown in March - a few weeks after the Government hopes all over-70s will have had the first dose of the vaccine - have been thrashed out by Cabinet, the Sunday Times reports.


Ministers will reportedly begin drawing up a timetable for the end of lockdown at the end of this week once they see the first evidence of the latest national lockdown's effects.

Areas will be put into lower tiers once their death rate has fallen, the number of hospital admissions drops and some in the 50- to 70-year-old age range are vaccinated, as this age group spends the most time in hospital with the virus.

Health Secretary Matt Hancock said the UK is “nearly on the home straight” as 324,000 doses of coronavirus vaccines were administered in the space of 24 hours.

More than 3.5 million people in the UK have now received their first dose of a vaccine, Prime Minister Boris Johnson said, as he hailed those helping the “fantastic national effort”.

Two vaccines have been rolled out in the UK, with a third – developed by Moderna – also approved for use.

Mr Hancock, writing in the Sunday Express, said: “We can see the way out of this pandemic. We are nearly on the home straight.

“After months of detailed preparations, rigorous scientific scrutiny and an extraordinary amount of patience, we are rolling out two highly effective vaccines, with a third coming in spring and others progressing through clinical trials.

“We’re rolling it out to as many vulnerable people as possible and we expect tens of millions of people to be vaccinated by the spring.”

Ministers are urging the public to “play their part” in supporting the vaccination programme, such as by helping the elderly attend their appointments.

And Mr Hancock said people should also sign up to clinical trials for vaccines and treatments, and stay informed with accurate and trusted NHS advice.

He urged the public to commit to “three pledges” to support the rollout, saying: “Everyone has a part to play in this national effort – to protect our NHS, our loved ones and other people’s loved ones too.”

Ministers are urging the public to “play their part” in supporting the vaccination programme, such as by helping the elderly attend their appointments.

And Mr Hancock said people should also sign up to clinical trials for vaccines and treatments, and stay informed with accurate and trusted NHS advice.

He urged the public to commit to “three pledges” to support the rollout, saying: “Everyone has a part to play in this national effort – to protect our NHS, our loved ones and other people’s loved ones too.”

Government sources dismissed as speculation reports in the Sunday Telegraph that every adult in Britain could be vaccinated by the end of June.

Ten further mass vaccination centres will open in England this week with more than a million over-80s invited to receive their coronavirus jab.

It comes as the Government prepares to suspend all quarantine-free travel into the UK on Monday in a bid to keep out new coronavirus variants.

The new policy means arrivals from every destination will need to self-isolate for 10 days, or receive a negative result from a coronavirus test taken at least five days after they enter the UK.

The bit that says "with some measures needed until the autumn" caught my eye. What's the guessing that these "some measures" needed until the autumn will be social distancing and face mask wearing? I'm hoping like mad that even though they're really ramping up all these wonderful vaccinations now, that they're not going to drag this social distancing nonsense on for further months on end until the autumn!!! A so called life back to normal does not include social distancing! Also if they're going to keep social distancing requirements until the autumn, then that's this year's festivals and events season wiped out again for the second year in a row! That's the theatre industry unable to reopen. That's all the unemployed who will still find it near impossible to find work again because of social distancing requirements! And that's just a few examples. Social distancing dragging on all these months is causing LOTS of problems and disruption for many people and businesses.

 

[chris11256]

I can't see social distancing lasting longer than the end of spring to be honest. Boris made a big part of talking about non-pharmaceutical measures ending and social distancing is the most disruptive measure of all.

I'm hopeful that it'll be mask recommendations and health advice and things like that rather than the government dictating what can and cant open.

 

[Class 33]

I can't see social distancing lasting longer than the end of spring to be honest. Boris made a big part of talking about non-pharmaceutical measures ending and social distancing is the most disruptive measure of all.

I'm hopeful that it'll be mask recommendations and health advice and things like that rather than the government dictating what can and cant open.

Indeed, social distancing is the most disruptive measure of all. Some people seem to think all there is to it is just making sure you're 2 metres away from anyone when passing them, queuing up, etc. But there is a hell of a lot more to it than that. Causing so many problems and disruption to many many businesses and individuals. And we've had 10 months of all this so far!

Hope you're right that by the end of spring at the latest, that it's finally finally gone!

 

[DB]

Indeed, social distancing is the most disruptive measure of all. Some people seem to think all there is to it is just making sure you're 2 metres away from anyone when passing them, queuing up, etc. But there is a hell of a lot more to it than that. Causing so many problems and disruption to many many businesses and individuals. And we've had 10 months of all this so far!

Hope you're right that by the end of spring at the latest, that it's finally finally gone!

Indeed - and masks are the most likely cause of arguments and disputes. Both measures need to go as soon as possible.

 

[Jamesrob637]

People should become a bit mindful of keeping a little distance even when this is all over, but Class 33 isn't implying that nobody should go near each other - he just wants a return to the days when you can be physically closer to people and nobody will really care. Same with the masks - I think they'll be recommended for a while yet, and I'm certainly happy to always have one with whenever I go out further than the driveway. But nothing like current measures in either sense.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

An article I have just spotted from the Bristol Post...

Deal to end lockdown in March as 3.5million have now had vaccine

"We can see the way out of this pandemic. We are nearly on the home straight."

www.bristolpost.co.uk

The bit that says "with some measures needed until the autumn" caught my eye. What's the guessing that these "some measures" needed until the autumn will be social distancing and face mask wearing? I'm hoping like mad that even though they're really ramping up all these wonderful vaccinations now, that they're not going to drag this social distancing nonsense on for further months on end until the autumn!!! A so called life back to normal does not include social distancing! Also if they're going to keep social distancing requirements until the autumn, then that's this year's festivals and events season wiped out again for the second year in a row! That's the theatre industry unable to reopen. That's all the unemployed who will still find it near impossible to find work again because of social distancing requirements! And that's just a few examples. Social distancing dragging on all these months is causing LOTS of problems and disruption for many people and businesses.

What's driving the restrictions is level of hospital admissions so until those are at a manageable level the rules won't be changed imv. I doubt admissions will be at a manageable level for several months because cases will remain high for a few months as its Jan/Feb are respiratory viruses breeding times in Northern Hemisphere. The other positive, but its has an adverse impact, is once hospitalised the duration of stay is far longer due to changed treatment regime compared to wave one leading to beds remaining occupied for longer. The vaccination programme will begin to bare down on this but as protection is reduced after first dose its not the panacea and even after second dose of cohorts 1-4 it won't impact admissions that much. This is because the 55-70 age group are the highest level of admissions now and this group won't be fully vaccinated until late June.

So maybe sometime during May an equilibrium maybe reached if we just consider the vaccination levels. However, respiratory viruses are naturally depressed by the seasons and at our latitude this is April through to August so we will see tumbling rates of infection come late March early April but whether govt will be bold enough to begin relaxing then remains to be seen. Im detecting a change in strategy now that they realise half baked measures they took last autumn were too late and resulted in the need for sledgehammer action and this time round they are operating a better be safe than sorry mantra and with the likes of the CRG wilted away now they don't have that political pressure to appease certain tory MPs to worry about.

 

[DB]

this time round they are operating a better be safe than sorry mantra and with the likes of the CRG wilted away now they don't have that political pressure to appease certain tory MPs to worry about.

Yet again, the new definition of "safe" - the word seems to have been hijacked and now only refers to coronavirus measures (irrespective of whether they actually do anything).

The current vicious restrictions are the antithesis of "safe" for some parts of society: they are actively dangerous.

 

[Yew]

An article I have just spotted from the Bristol Post...

Deal to end lockdown in March as 3.5million have now had vaccine

"We can see the way out of this pandemic. We are nearly on the home straight."

www.bristolpost.co.uk

The bit that says "with some measures needed until the autumn" caught my eye. What's the guessing that these "some measures" needed until the autumn will be social distancing and face mask wearing? I'm hoping like mad that even though they're really ramping up all these wonderful vaccinations now, that they're not going to drag this social distancing nonsense on for further months on end until the autumn!!! A so called life back to normal does not include social distancing! Also if they're going to keep social distancing requirements until the autumn, then that's this year's festivals and events season wiped out again for the second year in a row! That's the theatre industry unable to reopen. That's all the unemployed who will still find it near impossible to find work again because of social distancing requirements! And that's just a few examples. Social distancing dragging on all these months is causing LOTS of problems and disruption for many people and businesses.

Oh look, the Journalistic 'as' implying conditionality where there is none

 

[Class 33]

Indeed - and masks are the most likely cause of arguments and disputes. Both measures need to go as soon as possible.

Hancock said recently that "Everyone's going to have a fantastic summer, doing what they all enjoy again.". Well some of the things I(and many many others) enjoy doing during the summer is things like going to a festival or two, and going on train journeys without the need for having to wear darn face masks and without having to hear annoying announcements such as "You must wear a face mask at all times on the railway, otherwise you risk a fine." and "Please respect social distancing by remaining at least 2 metres away from other people at all times." going off every few minutes! So let's see Mr Hancock, if what you said the other week turns out to be true for this summer!

 

[LittleAH]

Indeed - and masks are the most likely cause of arguments and disputes. Both measures need to go as soon as possible.

Reality is, we're looking at measures for another 18 months because of far too much inaction at the start of the pandemic, open borders etc.

 

[DB]

Reality is, we're looking at measures for another 18 months because of far too much inaction at the start of the pandemic, open borders etc.

No chance - the country will be bankrupt if they try that. The comments from Sunak recently indicates that he knows it, too.

It's also ridiculous to claim that 'inaction' led to this. The only measures which might have prevented it becoming endemic would have been closed borders and quarantine very early on. Given that the UK is a major transport hub, this was realistically never a possibility as it was already spreading from multiple sources far before anyone even thought of restrictions - likely to have been since at least December 2019, possibly even earlier.

 

[Reliablebeam]

Looking at public behaviour over the last two 'locked down' weekends, and bearing in mind the weather hasn't exactly been great, I suspect the government will have a great deal of trouble keeping the worst of the restrictions in place much past the middle of March (depending on how quickly the weather improves this year) - unless they want to see the public ignore their edicts...

 

[Skimpot flyer]

Hancock said recently that "Everyone's going to have a fantastic summer, doing what they all enjoy again.". Well some of the things I(and many many others) enjoy doing during the summer is things like going to a festival or two, and going on train journeys without the need for having to wear darn face masks and without having to hear annoying announcements such as "You must wear a face mask at all times on the railway, otherwise you risk a fine." and "Please respect social distancing by remaining at least 2 metres away from other people at all times." going off every few minutes! So let's see Mr Hancock, if what you said the other week turns out to be true for this summer!

Word is that we’ll be given 30 minutes per day of the ‘old normal’, where masks can be removed and social distancing dropped.
Publicity is being prepared now, with a punchy slogan with the name of the minister said to be at the forefront.
Can you guess what it is yet?

 

[duncanp]

Word is that we’ll be given 30 minutes per day of the ‘old normal’, where masks can be removed and social distancing dropped.
Publicity is being prepared now, with a punchy slogan with the name of the minister said to be at the forefront.
Can you guess what it is yet?

Hancock's Half Hour

 

[21C101]

Once vaccinations have seen to it that hospital admissions and deaths are no worse than in a bad flu year then there is no further justification for any of the measures.

The experts and the politicians captured by them would have this performance every time there is a bad flu season given half a chance.

 

[Richard Scott]

Reality is, we're looking at measures for another 18 months because of far too much inaction at the start of the pandemic, open borders etc.

Nothing to do with inaction, everything to do with overreaction and paranoia. It's a virus, they are transmitted, human arrogance is what makes us think we can prevent this.

 

[Class 33]

Once vaccinations have seen to it that hospital admissions and deaths are no worse than in a bad flu year then there is no further justification for any of the measures.

The experts and the politicians captured by them would have this performance every time there is a bad flu season given half a chance.

Indeed. Once all the over 80's and most vulnerable people have all been vaccinated, this will eliminate about 90% of Coronavirus deaths. By a few months time, the daily deaths should be consistently very very low. And by then there will just no justification for all these social distancing & face mask wearing requirements to continue. It will be beyond ridiculous if these measures drag on into the summer and beyond.

 

[6862]

Nothing to do with inaction, everything to do with overreaction and paranoia. It's a virus, they are transmitted, human arrogance is what makes us think we can prevent this.

This is very true. It worries me that if we decide we have 'beaten' this virus we'll try and do it again for another virus, with all the damage that will do.

 

[LittleAH]

Nothing to do with inaction, everything to do with overreaction and paranoia. It's a virus, they are transmitted, human arrogance is what makes us think we can prevent this.

As my mate in Oz gets to sit at a test match watching cricket with a beer, I've got to pay £10 to watch my football team from my living room. One country acted better than the other, that's plainly obvious.

And as for viruses - wonder how human arrogance dealt with smallpox, polio etc?

 

[DB]

As my mate in Oz gets to sit at a test match watching cricket with a beer, I've got to pay £10 to watch my football team from my living room. One country acted better than the other, that's plainly obvious.

And as for viruses - wonder how human arrogance dealt with smallpox, polio etc?

See my point above - once it's endemic it's too late, and as a major transport hub it was never going to be possible here.

It was barely possible for Australia and they've done massive damage to their society in the process - plus it's summer there now, so even in the southern parts the virus would be in decline anyway. Not sure what's 'plainly obvious' given that the situations are in no way comparable.

Smallpox took 200 years from the first vaccine to eradicate. Not sure when the first Polio vaccine was, but that also took a long time - and they weren't as infectious as this one.

 

[6862]

And as for viruses - wonder how human arrogance dealt with smallpox, polio etc?

Human arrogance didn't think that we could beat those viruses by locking ourselves away for a few months and mandate measures to stop them spreading. While vaccines were being developed and distributed (over the course of decades) people carried on with life as normal (with some minor local restrictions surrounding outbreaks, but nothing as barbaric as what has been done in response to Covid).

 

[duncanp]

See my point above - once it's endemic it's too late, and as a major transport hub it was never going to be possible here.

It was barely possible for Australia and they've done massive damage to their society in the process - plus it's summer there now, so even in the southern parts the virus would be in decline anyway. Not sure what's 'plainly obvious' given that the situations are in no way comparable.

Smallpox took 200 years from the first vaccine to eradicate. Not sure when the first Polio vaccine was, but that also took a long time - and they weren't as infectious as this one.

The fact that it is summer in Australia now is an important one.

At the beginning of February, schools and colleges go back for the start of the new term, so I can't help but wonder if they will see the same problems that we saw here in the UK.

It is also easier for Australia, being geographically isolated from the rest of the world, to close their borders.

The fact that there are thousands of Australian citizens trapped abroad because they are unable to return home (due to a strict quota on the number of people entering) is one thing that many people forget when considering how "successfull" Australia has been in fighting the virus.

It also remains to be see whether the will be an increase in cases when Australia's borders re-open to foreign tourists, as no vaccines give 100% immunity from infection or tranmission.

 

[Richard Scott]

As my mate in Oz gets to sit at a test match watching cricket with a beer, I've got to pay £10 to watch my football team from my living room. One country acted better than the other, that's plainly obvious.

And as for viruses - wonder how human arrogance dealt with smallpox, polio etc?

He may be able to for now.
We dealt with smallpox and polio over many years of vaccination (longer than you or I will live) and not lockdown.

 

[Romsey]

Hancock's Half Hour

Yes, to be taken/broadcast between 0230 and 0300!

 

[brad465]

NHS Chief Sir Simon Stevens said today as things stand while he doesn't see a major lifting of restrictions soon, he doesn't think we'll be waiting till the autumn for them all to go.

 

[DB]

NHS Chief Sir Simon Stevens said today as things stand while he doesn't see a major lifting of restrictions soon, he doesn't think we'll be waiting till the autumn for them all to go.

But he's not the one who will make the decisons (although doubtless he will try to influence them) - and along with Whitty, Vallence and Ferguson he is another Doomster.

 

[21C101]

The fact that it is summer in Australia now is an important one.

At the beginning of February, schools and colleges go back for the start of the new term, so I can't help but wonder if they will see the same problems that we saw here in the UK.

It is also easier for Australia, being geographically isolated from the rest of the world, to close their borders.

The fact that there are thousands of Australian citizens trapped abroad because they are unable to return home (due to a strict quota on the number of people entering) is one thing that many people forget when considering how "successfull" Australia has been in fighting the virus.

It also remains to be see whether the will be an increase in cases when Australia's borders re-open to foreign tourists, as no vaccines give 100% immunity from infection or tranmission.

There is also the slight matter that they have a population much the same size as Taiwan (~25 million) in a country much the same size as China.

Similarly, New Zealand has a population the size of Greater London, north of the Thames only in country the size of the UK.

And neither have the busiest international airport in the World, the "Clapham Junction" of international air travel, so sealing the border is not economically catastrophic.

 

[Mag_seven]

NHS Chief Sir Simon Stevens said today as things stand while he doesn't see a major lifting of restrictions soon, he doesn't think we'll be waiting till the autumn for them all to go.

There will come a point when we realise that we can't trash the economy any longer - and that will be well before the autumn.