New lockdown in England, including school closures, announced by Johnson, 4/1/21

[initiation]

You asked if I knew of a recent peer-reviewed paper showing that heavy restrictions have a large positive effect? The article itself refers to two, in notes 15 and 18, though the authors of this article reach different conclusions. It seems likely that those articles were peer reviewed as they were published in Nature.

Of course, peer review does not guarantee that any conclusions are infallible, and as there is still very much to be learned about the Covid virus this latest article is unlikely to be the final word on the effectiveness of different kinds of intervention.

Yes, the references there do support the alternative assertion although the Stanford paper is critical of them saying (for example) "However, in the absence of empirical assessment of the policies, their effects on reduced transmission are assumed rather than assessed". Nature themselves also have this page on the paper (i'm sure in time there may be formal critism of the Stanford paper although not aware of it at present). As you say, no study is infallible.

What is clear is that the evidence for lockdowns working is not overwhelmingly positive or undisputed. Considering the vast harms that lockdowns cause then this should prompt a broader assessment of our approach to managing Covid; something which is lacking in my opinion.

 

[Richard Scott]

What is clear is that the evidence for lockdowns working is not overwhelmingly positive or undisputed. Considering the vast harms that lockdowns cause then this should prompt a broader assessment of our approach to managing Covid; something which is lacking in my opinion.

To be honest if lockdowns were that successful why are we still resorting to them 10months on, doesn't exactly smack of success to me, especially as on third one now?

 

[35B]

There isn't an overseas travel ban - they're just removing all the travel corridors so that people have to isolate for 10 days on return, and introducing some tedious rules about getting tests before you come back. I'm not keen on that, but I can't see some justification for it in the period while we are still vaccinating the very vulnerable. After that we need to open back up as much as possible and as far as possible.

There is no evidence that international travel made any difference over the summer - the disease was hanging about on these shores continuously for the summer period, and then we stirred the pot with school and university returns to get it spreading again. Even leading up to the March lockdown, it's likely that the vaccine was already spreading in the country long before people were looking at Italy and shouting pandemic. We might have been slightly further back on the curve if we'd responded faster, but unless you are suggesting that international travel should always require isolation on return then I don't see how it would have made a lot of difference

My understanding is that the mix of versions in the U.K. was stirred up by travel in the summer, with a high proportion of infections associated with a version found in Spain but not the U.K. before travel reopened.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

To be honest if lockdowns were that successful why are we still resorting to them 10months on, doesn't exactly smack of success to me, especially as on third one now?

My view is lockdowns are a response to a failure to manage the virus in the first place and whilst the forecasters maybe overly conservative the case numbers were always going to rise in Autumn its a natural rhythm that reparatory viruses follow when the days are shorter, the temperature is lower and the air is saturated. Lockdown 1 maybe hailed as a success but again as viruses expand in autumn/winter in the Northern Hemisphere they contract in Spring / Summer although given how well it was adhered to it must have made a contribution.

Another failure going into Autumn was not to have managed the mass movement of students and return of schools simultaneously as it led to surges that was seen in big university cities although there was quite a rapid fall back as largely students just infected each other but there would have been leakage into the community and it was those cases that went on to form wider transmission. SAGE have released a paper which shows following Autumn half term there was a natural drop back of cases particularly in the secondary school age group adding weight to this argument.

So going into Lockdown 2 cases were already increasing rapidly and remember a tested case means at least four times as many cases are still developing and transmitting so by the time they put a lid on it they had too many fires to fight but govt was foolish to put a backstop on it to appease MPs so they had to come out of it. The tiered system was a reasonable tool but there should have been a tier 4 that had the schools closed before going straight to a lockdown. Whilst I absolutely support keeping children in education the fact is the govt back itself into a corner with these policies then is slow to respond in the face of the evidence for fear of repercussions. It was also evident in Kent that growth rates weren't responding to lockdown 2 yet they foolishly let them go into Tier 3 on 2/12 which allowed the shops to stay open and thus seed the transmission of the virus further as people went Xmas shopping so no wonder things got out of control.

Lockdowns are thus a failure to have effective management of virus transmission in the first place and this is because the govt is continually worrying about short term impact and appeasing MPs which then result in the situation deteriorating to a point where the cases rises and the hospitals become full and then they panic from media response and impose a lockdown which is economically even more damaging.

 

[yorksrob]

Exactly, tier 4 is essentially lock down with a different name. Tier 3 is similar except retail and restaurants can be open.

Rather than thinking about what can open and trying to adapt the tiers, in my mind we should be asking how soon after March/April can we completely ditch social distancing.

Lockdown, in terms of being able to go about ones business, needs to go, long before March/April, and probably before all social distancing is ditched. Don't let perfection be the enemy of bearable.

 

[chris11256]

Lockdown, in terms of being able to go about ones business, needs to go, long before March/April, and probably before all social distancing is ditched. Don't let perfection be the enemy of bearable.

While that would be very nice, personally I can't see anything changing before at least mid to late March, SAGE wouldn't stand for it

I think perhaps any new tiers would need rethinking, as they wouldn't be for the same purposes as they were in September/December.

In some more good news, over 300,000 vaccinations in the past 24 hours.

BBC News
Some 3,514,385 Covid-19 vaccinations have taken place in England since 8 December, according to provisional NHS England data.

The figure, for jabs up to and including yesterday, includes first and second doses and is a rise of 324,711 on the statistics from 24 hours earlier.

Of this number, 3,090,058 were the first dose of the vaccine, a rise of 320,894 on Friday's figures, while 424,327 were the second dose, an increase of 3,817

 

[yorksrob]

While that would be very nice, personally I can't see anything changing before at least mid to late March, SAGE wouldn't stand for it

I think perhaps any new tiers would need rethinking, as they wouldn't be for the same purposes as they were in September/December.

SAGE rely on public cooperation. They have gotten far too used to taking it for granted.

 

[packermac]

SAGE rely on public cooperation. They have gotten far too used to taking it for granted.

SAGE do not rely on anything other than numerous scientific opinions as their role is to advise the Government. Who I agree need public compliance.

 

[chris11256]

I do hope that some point in spring is when the current SAGE gets disbanded and stood down. Although that's probably wishful thinking on my part.

The impressive thing though is the idea that everyone could have been offered the vaccine by July. Although obviously hospitalizations would fall dramatically once the over 50's are done in March. That's not so say that they'll go away, it'll just be at an easily manageable level.

 

[35B]

I do hope that some point in spring is when the current SAGE gets disbanded and stood down. Although that's probably wishful thinking on my part.

The impressive thing though is the idea that everyone could have been offered the vaccine by July. Although obviously hospitalizations would fall dramatically once the over 50's are done in March. That's not so say that they'll go away, it'll just be at an easily manageable level.

SAGE is the "Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies". I very much doubt it will be stood down, or the composition changed materially, while Covid remains a significant health issue in or for the UK. The same is true for NERVTAG, the "New and Emerging Respiratory Virus Threats Advisory Group" which provides specific expertise on respirotary viruses.

 

[chris11256]

SAGE is the "Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies". I very much doubt it will be stood down, or the composition changed materially, while Covid remains a significant health issue in or for the UK. The same is true for NERVTAG, the "New and Emerging Respiratory Virus Threats Advisory Group" which provides specific expertise on respirotary viruses.

True, but it doesn't always exist in a permanent state as there's not always an emergency. It's convened initially when the Government thinks its needed and it's membership changes depending on what the problem is. So for example with COVID it didn't first meet until the 22nd January 2020.

 

[35B]

True, but it doesn't always exist in a permanent state as there's not always an emergency. It's convened initially when the Government thinks its needed and it's membership changes depending on what the problem is. So for example with COVID it didn't first meet until the 22nd January 2020.

Ok - I follow your meaning. I still don't think it'll disband for a while yet.

 

[yorksrob]

SAGE do not rely on anything other than numerous scientific opinions as their role is to advise the Government. Who I agree need public compliance.

SAGE are clearly driving public policy, and consequently they rely as much on public compliance as the Government to achieve that.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

While that would be very nice, personally I can't see anything changing before at least mid to late March, SAGE wouldn't stand for it

I think perhaps any new tiers would need rethinking, as they wouldn't be for the same purposes as they were in September/December.

In some more good news, over 300,000 vaccinations in the past 24 hours.

Schools need to be considered as part of the tiering system as they are key driver of transmission. Its not fair on pupils i appreciate and what the govt should be doing is coming up with a strategy to manage this situation by being proactive not reactive all the time. The closure of schools was entirely predictable they are the perfect environment for transmission.

Great news on vaccinations achieved and it will be higher as the dashboard data hasn't been updated with Scotland and Wales jabs yet. This is great example of what happens when you hand it over to front line people to deliver and not overpaid management consultants.

 

[Typhoon]

Great news on vaccinations achieved and it will be higher as the dashboard data hasn't been updated with Scotland and Wales jabs yet. This is great example of what happens when you hand it over to front line people to deliver and not overpaid management consultants.

... or friends or relatives of MPs.

(Your sentiment is entirely correct,)

 

[Richard Scott]

Schools need to be considered as part of the tiering system as they are key driver of transmission. Its not fair on pupils i appreciate and what the govt should be doing is coming up with a strategy to manage this situation by being proactive not reactive all the time. The closure of schools was entirely predictable they are the perfect environment for transmission.

No they don't, these kids have had enough damage done. I work in a school and spoken to people who work in other schools and no evidence from anyone of mass transmission and even if there were so what? Almost everyone involved in a school is at minimal risk. Anyone who works there who is at risk shouldn't be in work. Why ruin the education of the future generations for sale of a very small minority? And leave granny out of it, she needs to decide big sensible to see grandchildren or not.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

No they don't, these kids have had enough damage done. I work in a school and spoken to people who work in other schools and no evidence from anyone of mass transmission and even if there were so what? Almost everyone involved in a school is at minimal risk. Anyone who works there who is at risk shouldn't be in work. Why ruin the education of the future generations for sale of a very small minority? And leave granny out of it, she needs to decide big sensible to see grandchildren or not.

Im not suggesting mass transmission but the SAGE report was able to discern a specific shift in 12-17 year old case rates across Nov half term which demonstrated transmission is occurring within school environment and thus community transmission is a high possibility. So my view remains that areas need to have a Tier level (last resort) that breaks this chain in local areas. The alternative is we go for a lockdown sledgehammer across whole nation and that impacts all pupils.

The real failure here is any competent govt, especially one that bangs on about keeping pupils in school and rightly so, would have a strategy for doing so but other than fine words its not backed up with substance. Furthermore the govt has failed the pupils it purports to be protecting by having no contingency plan for when lockdown came. I have a teacher friend who is despairing trying to work out what and how to teach on line to primary pupils there should have been resources on the shelf and appropriate IT infrastructure to support. Also even in leafy Surrey the local community has had to ask for laptop donations (to which ive provided one) to ensure needy children have access to an appropriate device to attempt some learning.

 

[Bertie the bus]

No they don't, these kids have had enough damage done. I work in a school and spoken to people who work in other schools and no evidence from anyone of mass transmission and even if there were so what? Almost everyone involved in a school is at minimal risk. Anyone who works there who is at risk shouldn't be in work. Why ruin the education of the future generations for sale of a very small minority? And leave granny out of it, she needs to decide big sensible to see grandchildren or not.

Instead of just repeating the same thing ad infinitum you would be better thinking through the wider implications. It is precisely because people, and the government, took your view in December and kept schools open when they should have obviously been closed we are now in the current situation. A 2 week early closure for Christmas could, and almost certainly would, have prevented the current 6 week closure. It would have also prevented a lot of deaths and a lot of needless disruption to other people's lives.

 

[matacaster]

Absolutely that was the whole rationale behind lockdown 3 is it buys time whilst we get to cohorts 1-4 over 70 year olds(health workers are included to protect them) vaccinated we potentially remove 88% of those suffering mortality The whole premise being once you have vaccinated this group you will significantly reduce hospitalisations and the NHS will have the capacity to manage the case rate associated with relaxed restrictions. However, yesterdays briefing looked like it was rolling back on that and BoJo wants to go further before he changes anything maybe he's now a fully paid convert to SAGE.

Maybe, but surely those who die are no longer a strain on the NHS, its those who are intensive care who live who take up the most capacity.

 

[Richard Scott]

Instead of just repeating the same thing ad infinitum you would be better thinking through the wider implications. It is precisely because people, and the government, took your view in December and kept schools open when they should have obviously been closed we are now in the current situation. A 2 week early closure for Christmas could, and almost certainly would, have prevented the current 6 week closure. It would have also prevented a lot of deaths and a lot of needless disruption to other people's lives.

No, I need to repeat it as that's the case. No need for any discussions, I'm afraid. Kids need school, full stop! As for two week closure before Christmas local school near enough was, didn't change anything, still kept it closed. The wider implications seem very overstated to me as I put earlier what difference does it make if kids pick it up anyway? Quite a few around here have and not had any detrimental affect on anyone else. Instead of going on about they'll be thousands of deaths we need to get a grip on reality and stop treating this like impending Armageddon.

 

[brad465]

This story about fearing unlawful prosecution if hospitals are overwhelmed is currently top story:

Covid-19: Protect us from unlawful killing charges - medics

Health groups say NHS staff fear prosecution over decisions if hospitals are overwhelmed.

www.bbc.co.uk

Doctors and nurses need protection from prosecution over Covid-19 treatment decisions made under the pressures of the pandemic, medical bodies have said.

Groups including the British Medical Association have written to ministers saying medical workers fear they could be at risk of unlawful killing charges.

It comes as the UK's chief medical officers said the NHS could be overwhelmed in weeks.

The government said staff should not have to fear legal action.

The letter from the health organisations points out that the prime minister warned in November that the NHS being overwhelmed would be a "medical and moral disaster", where "doctors and nurses could be forced to choose which patients to treat, who would live and who would die".

It said: "With the chief medical officers now determining that there is a material risk of the NHS being overwhelmed within weeks, our members are worried that not only do they face being put in this position but also that they could subsequently be vulnerable to a criminal investigation by the police."

Co-ordinated by the Medical Protection Society (MPS), the letter was signed by the British Medical Association, the Doctors' Association UK, the Hospital Consultants and Specialists Association, the Royal College of Surgeons of Edinburgh, the British Association of Physicians of Indian Origin and Medical Defence Shield.

I agree that staff on the ground shouldn't be subjected to such charges, however could it be argued that in the first lockdown those who made the decision (probably high up the hierarchy) could risk this sort of charge in future as a result of shutting down large parts of the NHS to non-Covid patients? I'm not a legal expert so very happy to be corrected on this.

 

[yorksrob]

This story about fearing unlawful prosecution if hospitals are overwhelmed is currently top story:

Covid-19: Protect us from unlawful killing charges - medics

Health groups say NHS staff fear prosecution over decisions if hospitals are overwhelmed.

www.bbc.co.uk

I agree that staff on the ground shouldn't be subjected to such charges, however could it be argued that in the first lockdown those who made the decision (probably high up the hierarchy) could risk this sort of charge in future as a result of shutting down large parts of the NHS to non-Covid patients? I'm not a legal expert so very happy to be corrected on this.

From the stories emerging, it does, as you say, seem that decisions were taken last year which resulted in people being denied potentially life saving treatments, so I don't see how that would be any different to this circumstance.

 

[Cdd89]

A 2 week early closure for Christmas could, and almost certainly would, have prevented the current 6 week closure

Surely at best it would have just delayed the “need” for the current six week closure by a further two weeks?

 

[brad465]

From the stories emerging, it does, as you say, seem that decisions were taken last year which resulted in people being denied potentially life saving treatments, so I don't see how that would be any different to this circumstance.

Yes if I was related to somebody who went through that experience, I'd consider legal action on their behalf based on what this news story seems to imply, unless it was possible for someone terminally ill to initiate it themselves.

 

[bramling]

From the stories emerging, it does, as you say, seem that decisions were taken last year which resulted in people being denied potentially life saving treatments, so I don't see how that would be any different to this circumstance.

This is likely to be a lasting legacy from all this, something we’ll see for a number of years I suspect.

I am increasingly coming round the view often articulated on here that the government has shifted the burden (of a seasonal respiratory infection) from the very old to much younger people, both in terms of the economic hit, and to be frank in many cases a burden on their health.

How many people are going to lose many years of life due to late diagnosis of cancer? How many children’s prospects are going to be damaged by their education having been disrupted or their exams having been cancelled?

 

[yorksrob]

Yes if I was related to somebody who went through that experience, I'd consider legal action on their behalf based on what this news story seems to imply, unless it was possible for someone terminally ill to initiate it themselves.

This is likely to be a lasting legacy from all this, something we’ll see for a number of years I suspect.

I am increasingly coming round the view often articulated on here that the government has shifted the burden (of a seasonal respiratory infection) from the very old to much younger people, both in terms of the economic hit, and to be frank in many cases a burden on their health.

How many people are going to lose many years of life due to late diagnosis of cancer? How many children’s prospects are going to be damaged by their education having been disrupted or their exams having been cancelled?

I suppose that my point is, why are these sort of compromises only being highlighted now as part of a pro-lockdown agenda by the establishment, when they were clearly happening as a result of the earlier lockdown.

 

[bramling]

I suppose that my point is, why are these sort of compromises only being highlighted now as part of a pro-lockdown agenda by the establishment, when they were clearly happening as a result of the earlier lockdown.

The difficulty they have now is that having attempted to scare the younger population, there’s now a difficulty that dialling back is going to prove difficult whilst most of the young and middle-aged population will be remaining unvaccinated for some time yet.

Now the soon-to-be vaccinated pensioners are busy booking back-to-back breaks for the summer and autumn with all the money they’ve saved last year, everyone else is going to be left to pick up the pieces, and there’s going to be plenty of those.

 

[takno]

The difficulty they have now is that having attempted to scare the younger population, there’s now a difficulty that dialling back is going to prove difficult whilst most of the young and middle-aged population will be remaining unvaccinated for some time yet.

Now the soon-to-be vaccinated pensioners are busy booking back-to-back breaks for the summer and autumn with all the money they’ve saved last year, everyone else is going to be left to pick up the pieces, and there’s going to be plenty of those.

Ah, the BBC article have covered that quite well https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-55654127 [article contains a picture of a coachload of over 50s celebrating, and explains how the vaccine has given them confidence to start booking holidays at an unprecedented rate]

The article didn't appear to cotton onto it, but I can see some anger coming when families try to book a summer break this year and find the boomers have taken that from them too

 

[yorksrob]

The difficulty they have now is that having attempted to scare the younger population, there’s now a difficulty that dialling back is going to prove difficult whilst most of the young and middle-aged population will be remaining unvaccinated for some time yet.

Now the soon-to-be vaccinated pensioners are busy booking back-to-back breaks for the summer and autumn with all the money they’ve saved last year, everyone else is going to be left to pick up the pieces, and there’s going to be plenty of those.

Ah, the BBC article have covered that quite well https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-55654127 [article contains a picture of a coachload of over 50s celebrating, and explains how the vaccine has given them confidence to start booking holidays at an unprecedented rate]

The article didn't appear to cotton onto it, but I can see some anger coming when families try to book a summer break this year and find the boomers have taken that from them too

I absolutely have no issue with those who have already been (or expect to be) vaccinated booking holidays. If I've learned anything out of this episode, its that you've got to get out and enjoy yourself when you can.

What would enrage me would be if I was still barred from the simple pleasures of going for a few beers in a country pub. If I am to be expected to wait until I am vaccinated for that, I will not be forgiving, or voting for the establishment again.

 

[bramling]

I absolutely have no issue with those who have already been (or expect to be) vaccinated booking holidays. If I've learned anything out of this episode, its that you've got to get out and enjoy yourself when you can.

What would enrage me would be if I was still barred from the simple pleasures of going for a few beers in a country pub. If I am to be expected to wait until I am vaccinated for that, I will not be forgiving, or voting for the establishment again.

I don’t know, to be honest I’d be pretty enraged if I can’t get my planned holidays this year for any reason, the hotels being stuffed full of pensioners being one of those! To mitigate against this, I’ve made a load of refundable block-bookings, which also gives some flexibility regarding weather. I’m not sure there will in any case be that much demand for holidays in Swansea, Port Talbot or Newcastle...

I suspect it’s unlikely hotels will turn away unvaccinated people. Judging by what I’ve seen on a few hotel Facebook pages recently, and from conversations when I was in Wales last October, I don’t think hotels will be wanting to restrict people. But wait for the pensioners to pressure for unvaccinated people not to be allowed in places that they wish to grace with their presence. I bet we’ll see at least elements of that.