What to do with HS2 and NPR

[Ianno87]

However, I'm not even convinced it would be the highest priority if 'demand plummets'.

If "demand plummets", I'm not sure where HS2<>GWML demand magically appears from!

 

[Halifaxlad]

Can you pinpoint on a map where you think this chord could be built, where there is a suitable place for a connection off HS2, even as a fantasy idea. I'm just intrigued as to the idea as I don't think it is possible (and certainly not in anyone's plans). HS2 is in a tunnel from Old Oak Common to West Ruislip - I guess you could try coming down the line of the M25 but that is a major piece of construction.

However, I'm not even convinced it would be the highest priority if 'demand plummets'.

London tunnels | High Speed 2

www.hs2.org.uk

Sorry I forgot to also mention via East to West Rail!

Steeple Clayton is the area where both will cross, so somewhere around theyre!

 

[The Planner]

The suggestion of still rejigging Euston is that there are a number of platforms that won't take 12.350 or 11.390, so it'd be much easier to operate the station if they could.

Only to an extent, you still have to deal with the conflicts in the throat.

Sorry I forgot to also mention via East to West Rail!

Steeple Clayton is the area where both will cross, so somewhere around theyre!

Would need a considerable amount of 4 tracking of HS2 to not be detrimental to capacity. Not sure what benefit it would have either.

 

[swt_passenger]

They're is not much point in that!

Yes I am suggesting if demand plummets and frees up capacity that a chord between HS2 to connect it with the GWML should be considered/built!

They couldn’t justify a Heathrow branch off HS2 because there wasn’t enough demand to divert trains there. Most of the GWML destinations will be quicker by XC existing routes, even Birmingham to Reading via HS2 is marginal on time. If demand plummets surely there’ll be less justification for any branch?

 

[Bletchleyite]

Only to an extent, you still have to deal with the conflicts in the throat.

True. But at present there aren't enough 12-car platforms for the whole commuter service to be 12-car, and if HS2 was canned I would suggest that this would need to be achieved. (If HS2 goes ahead, the capacity would be obtained by running extra services using the platforms Avanti would no longer be using).

 

[miami]

Why would you need 12 car commuting if commuting demand vanishes?

 

[Bletchleyite]

Why would you need 12 car commuting if commuting demand vanishes?

I wouldn't expect it to vanish, rather to reduce. Therefore my proposal would be that an all-week Saturday type service would operate (as it tends to away from London) but that you may well need a number of "peak" services lengthened to 12 car to provide the required capacity.

I'd probably suggest you'd be looking to run 12-car on anything departing MKC for London between about 0600 and 0830, and northbound anything between about 1630 and 1900, plus northbound on Fridays and Saturdays between about 2200 and the last service, with all other services 8-car.

At present the peak service has a load of extra services crammed into it. It used to be 2 extras* per hour, but it's now far more than that.

* The old pattern was quite clever. The standard service, in the days when nothing went past Northampton, was roughly 2tph Northampton fast (xx23 and xx53, later moved to xx13 and xx43), 2tph MKC semifast (xx24 and xx54) and 2tph Tring stoppers (xx04/xx34 I think). The peak service, again roughly, extended the MKC semifasts to Northampton, the Trings to MKC with some stops removed, and inserted 2 extra Trings (xx10/xx40). Great for the Takt enthusiast, but not quite enough capacity pre-COVID - but may well work after it.

 

[miami]

My understanding of what you're suggesting is that commuting reductions means that we shoudl have just about enough capacity to last until HS2 opens.

Two all-stop Northampton to Eustons an hour, with a semi fast leaving just before it, should mean plenty of capacity on the slow lines, even with an occasional freight, leaving the fast lines for fast trains. First stop Rugby (maybe occasional pickup-only northbounds at Watford and Milton Keynes)

If 2025 needs 12 car paltform lengthening to just about provide enough capacity, then by 2035 we're back to full capacity and needing a third pair.

 

[Bletchleyite]

If 2025 needs 12 car paltform lengthening to just about provide enough capacity, then by 2035 we're back to full capacity and needing a third pair.

That's making a big assumption, namely that there will be traffic growth. There's a good chance improving tech and changing work patterns will cause increasing decline.

 

[Halifaxlad]

Would need a considerable amount of 4 tracking of HS2 to not be detrimental to capacity. Not sure what benefit it would have either.

That's why my suggestion was on the basis of if demand on HS2 plummets and frees up paths! (If)

The benefits would be faster services between the North East and the South West!

 

[D365]

That's making a big assumption, namely that there will be traffic growth. There's a good chance improving tech and changing work patterns will cause increasing decline.

And that's a big assumption, that traffic will decline

 

[Ianno87]

And that's a big assumption, that traffic will decline

Most probable outcome is a lower baseline of demand, followed by growth from that.

 

[D365]

Most probable outcome is a lower baseline of demand, followed by growth from that.

Exactly. The "home working revolution" has been talked about for years, and now that we've had the opportunity to try it out, it's clear that it will never be a 100% replacement for office working.

 

[miami]

That's making a big assumption, namely that there will be traffic growth. There's a good chance improving tech and changing work patterns will cause increasing decline.

It hasn't for the last 20 years of increased internet access. Now sure, covid has meant more people using zoom, it's also meant more people appreciating not being on zoom

In September rail was at 40% of precovid. If that's the new baseline, then based on the increase seen over the last 20 years we'll be back upto Jan 2020 levels by 2040. September road traffic was back upto (and even higher) than pre-covid levels. People still want to travel.

However if we don't see strong signs of recovery from this time next year, I'd expect the railway to be put into a period of managed decline -- it costs a fortune to subsidise, and if middle class conservative voters in the home counties don't need it, the only thing left will be long distance trains.

HS2 is already being built, completely closing down the WCML into London and using the land for housing may be an option to be considered.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Exactly. The "home working revolution" has been talked about for years, and now that we've had the opportunity to try it out, it's clear that it will never be a 100% replacement for office working.

True, but what is clear is that it will be a replacement for going in the office every day, which has the potential to close to halve commuter traffic.

 

[Ianno87]

In September rail was at 40% of precovid. If that's the new baseline, then based on the increase seen over the last 20 years we'll be back upto Jan 2020 levels by 2040. September road traffic was back upto (and even higher) than pre-covid levels. People still want to travel.

And even the 40% was only after a very brief start of the "return to office" phase, Covid very much still in circulation and restrictions ongoing on entertainment and hospitality.

40% was a fantastic result considering this - just think would it would be with Covid gone.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 16 Jan 2021 ==

True, but what is clear is that it will be a replacement for going in the office every day, which has the potential to close to halve commuter traffic.

*But* emptier trains makes occasional commuting more attractive. There may be a sort of "suppressed demand" released from people who previously hated crowded trains.

 

[Purple Orange]

The notion of there being a reduced demand in the medium to long term is nonsense. People want to be closer together and as soon as we are through the pandemic, there will be a huge surge in people going here, there and everywhere. I doubt my other half and I are too different from the rest of society, but already we have several planned trips, which is more than we normally would. I expect to be in the office 50% of my time, but that means travelling on public transport is the most financially viable option rather than running a second car.

The railway will be vitally important in getting the country back on it’s feet and it can’t wallow in an assumption that demand will be low, therefore services must be reduced. HS2 and NPR will be needed and to curtail it would be a mammoth mistake.

 

[Ianno87]

The notion of there being a reduced demand in the medium to long term is nonsense. People want to be closer together and as soon as we are through the pandemic, there will be a huge surge in people going here, there and everywhere. I doubt my other half and I are too different from the rest of society, but already we have several planned trips, which is more than we normally would. I expect to be in the office 50% of my time, but that means travelling on public transport is the most financially viable option rather than running a second car.

The railway will be vitally important in getting the country back on it’s feet and it can’t wallow in an assumption that demand will be low, therefore services must be reduced. HS2 and NPR will be needed and to curtail it would be a mammoth mistake.

After a year of bring cooped up, people are going to want to travel. And will. And they'll enjoy it, and want to do it more. Realise how great it is to see family and friends in the pub and put the world to rights. How much better it is to grab a coffee in the break out area rather than via Teams call. And so forth.

We'll learn to live and love again.

 

[Purple Orange]

After a year of bring cooped up, people are going to want to travel. And will. And they'll enjoy it, and want to do it more. Realise how great it is to see family and friends in the pub and put the world to rights. How much better it is to grab a coffee in the break out area rather than via Teams call. And so forth.

We'll learn to live and love again.

Spot on!

 

[Bletchleyite]

After a year of bring cooped up, people are going to want to travel. And will. And they'll enjoy it, and want to do it more. Realise how great it is to see family and friends in the pub and put the world to rights. How much better it is to grab a coffee in the break out area rather than via Teams call. And so forth.

We'll learn to live and love again.

In a totally different way. Not involving getting up at 5:30am to make an awkward daily journey into London and not getting home until coming on 8, but rather going at more spread-out times on more spread-out days to make the most of that meeting up rather than just sitting and working at a desk on your own in an office - that bit can easily be done at home.

I definitely miss going into the office once or twice a week. I definitely don't miss daily London commuting. It's stressful and sleep depriving. I very much doubt anyone really liked it.

I think the passengers will return, but I think those aiming to arrive at their desk for 9 and leave at 5:30 and get home as quickly as possible afterwards will be halved or even fewer (thinking of it on a per-day basis). Even of those who do go in to offices every day, I reckon they'll get up, read their emails over breakfast, head in perhaps for 10 working on the train (so more 2+2 and tables needed, not 3+2), and perhaps spread out the time they return home a bit, too.

 

[miami]

Listening to Vine today, at the number of people being forced to go to work, into offices, despite being able to do the job from home

The commuting lull won't last.

 

[AMR]

I recon the NPR should focus on the Leeds to Manchester line 1st. Then Connect that to HS2 ( as then you can run York/Leeds-airport services a lot easier which is the 2nd most popular route though Manchester I bet) Then Build out to York and finally to Liverpool which is not that bad or cramp as MAN-LDS.

 

[Bletchleyite]

I recon the NPR should focus on the Leeds to Manchester line 1st. Then Connect that to HS2 ( as then you can run York/Leeds-airport services a lot easier which is the 2nd most popular route though Manchester I bet) Then Build out to York and finally to Liverpool which is not that bad or cramp as MAN-LDS.

I think this discussion is likely to end up with the War of the Roses, as unsurprisingly I don't agree that Leeds-York should be a priority over Liverpool-Warrington-Manchester, though I do agree Manchester-Leeds, as the TPE core, should be first.

 

[Purple Orange]

If the decision was mine I’d prioritise:

1. HS2 western branch, with 6 platform surface Piccadilly station and junction to Trans Pennine main line.
2. Trans Pennine Route Upgrade and full electrification.
3. ECML upgrades
4. Scrap XC north of York
5. Run 4 NPR tph: B’ham to Edinburgh via Manc, Leeds & Newcastle.
6. Electrify CLC
7. Run 4 Liverpool services via Chat Moss:
   • 2 tph Liverpool-Manchester Victoria
   • 1 tph Liverpool-Hull
   • 1 tph Liverpool-Scarborough

I see there being no investment in a new NPR line if the HS2 eastern branch is going cold. Not that investment in the former is dependent on the latter, but more that a London centric government getting cold feet on a line to London doesn’t bode well for anything else.

 

[HST43257]

1: Build HS2 Phase 1 and 2a in full
2: Build NPR in full, as well as short routes to Liverpool and Manchester HS2 branches (on the NPR route)
3: Upgrade the northern ECML (YRK - EDB) and northern WCML (CRE to GLC/EDB)
4: Build all remaining parts of HS2 Phase 2b
5: Build high speed route avoiding all traffic and large curves in Northumberland and Scotland*

* This would go on segregated track and go underground from where a lot of houses start to pop up getting towards Edinburgh and Glasgow (from each side). Would be used by HS2 and NPR plus maybe some selected 140mph express services.

 

[Purple Orange]

1: Build HS2 Phase 1 and 2a in full
2: Build NPR in full, as well as short routes to Liverpool and Manchester HS2 branches (on the NPR route)
3: Upgrade the northern ECML (YRK - EDB) and northern WCML (CRE to GLC/EDB)
4: Build all remaining parts of HS2 Phase 2b
5: Build high speed route avoiding all traffic and large curves in Northumberland and Scotland*

* This would go on segregated track and go underground from where a lot of houses start to pop up getting towards Edinburgh and Glasgow (from each side). Would be used by HS2 and NPR plus maybe some selected 140mph express services.

At what point would a Liverpool branch and full NPR be designed and built compared to the fully designed and costed phase 2b? I assume by short branches to Liverpool & Manchester, you’re referring to the proposal via Warrington to Liverpool and the Crewe-Manc HS2 branch leg?

 

[HST43257]

I assume by short branches to Liverpool & Manchester, you’re referring to the proposal via Warrington to Liverpool and the Crewe-Manc HS2 branch leg?

Correct - The majority of these would be on the NPR route as well (Crewe/Liverpool to Manchester)

 

[Purple Orange]

Correct - The majority of these would be on the NPR route as well (Crewe/Liverpool to Manchester)

Oh ok, so if I understand, you’re saying in point 2 to build HS2 phase 2b western branch plus a new line to Liverpool and a new line across (or under) the Pennines.

 

[HST43257]

Oh ok, so if I understand, you’re saying in point 2 to build HS2 phase 2b western branch plus a new line to Liverpool and a new line across (or under) the Pennines.

Pretty much.

Everything NPR plus most of the (in my view) helpful chords and branches to have the best benefits as early as possible.

 

[Purple Orange]

Pretty much.

Everything NPR plus most of the (in my view) helpful chords and branches to have the best benefits as early as possible.

Hopefully NPR will be built in full, but I suspect that there will be several intermediate stages. For example, before HS1 and HS2 phase 2b was/is built, Eurostar and HS2 services appear on the existing main lines, until the new lines are operational. NPR might be the same, with Trans Pennine Route upgrade filling that void.