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New lockdown in England, including school closures, announced by Johnson, 4/1/21

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takno

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Ah, yes, Professor Pantsdown has such a good record on predictions doesn't he?

  • Foot & Mouth (2001) - predicted 150,000 : actual less than 200
  • BSE (2002) - predicted 50,000 : actual 177
  • Bird Flu (2005) - predicted 150,000,000 : actual 282
  • Swine Flu (2009) - predicted 65,000 : actual 457
  • COVID-19 - predicted 500,000

Given that the death toll is currently just above 84,000, it is not unreasonable to assume it could top 100,000 by the end of this year.
I was previously assuming that we'd reach 100k by the end of the month, but since he's predicted it I've actually developed some hope that it won't happen
 

kez19

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Just had a very quick check of the news and I see that professor Fergusson is saying that a lockdown until AUTUMN is needed!!! What absolute nonsense! He can shove that!


Is he the media’s go too guy? I see they don’t use anyone else!
 

Scotrail12

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Ah, yes, Professor Pantsdown has such a good record on predictions doesn't he?
  • Bird Flu (2005) - predicted 150,000,000 : actual 282
Was he for real with that prediction? I don't know how he could have gotten it that wrong.
 

duncanp

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Was he for real with that prediction? I don't know how he could have gotten it that wrong.

From the Wikipeda page for Professor Pantsdown.

In 2005, Neil Ferguson said that bird flu could kill as many as 200 million people worldwide. He stated that "Around 40 million people died in 1918 Spanish flu outbreak" and that "There are six times more people on the planet now so you could scale it [the death toll from bird flu] up to around 200 million people probably." He also warned that failure to take swift action would be catastrophic for the United Kingdom, saying that "If the virus got as far as Britain, it would effectively be too late".

He was comparing the death toll for the 1918 - 1920 Spanish Flu Pandemic and the world population at the time, and multiplying the death toll by 6 to take account of the increase in the world population between 1920 and 2005.

Which is completely unscientific, as it takes no account of the improvements to hygiene (few people had bathrooms in 1920), healthcare (NHS created in 1948) and the processing and sharing of information.

One transmission vector for the 1918 - 1920 Spanish Flu pandemic was troop movements at the end of the First World War.

Which makes me think that it is almost certain the Olympic Games will be cancelled this summer, as no-one will want people from all over the world travelling to Japan, mixing with each other, potentially picking up new strains of the virus, and then taking it back to their home countries.
 
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The bird flu prediction was for if it should become trasmissable from human-to-human which thankfully it never did. It did however kill 60% of those infected (mainly through breathing in dessicated bird poo).
 

brad465

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Steve Baker of the CRG is openly saying Johnson could be subjected to a leadership challenge over lockdown:


Boris Johnson could face a leadership challenge if he does not bow to lockdown sceptics in his party and lift restrictions, a backbench Tory MP has said.

Steve Baker, who led Eurosceptic rebellions on Brexit that brought down Theresa May, said people in the party were "losing faith" in the prime minister's leadership.

“It's inevitable the prime minister’s leadership will be on the table," Mr Baker is said to have privately told colleagues, according to a report in The Sun.

“People are telling me they are losing faith in our Conservative Party leadership.”

Mr Baker was one of the ministers to set up the Covid Recovery Group (CRG) of Tory MPs, who agitate to water down government measures to fight the virus.

The actual influence of the lockdown sceptics is questionable however, as rebellions have been limited and the government's large majority has never failed to carry restrictions over the line in parliament.


Consistent support from the opposition Labour Party also makes it very difficult for the government to lose on coronavirus votes.

The latest lockdown regulations in January got through parliament by a huge 524 votes to 16.

Nevertheless, in a note to his lockdown-sceptic colleagues, Mr Baker called for "a guarantee that this strategy will not be used again next winter".

“Government has adopted a strategy devoid of any commitment to liberty without any clarification about when our most basic freedoms will be restored and with no guarantee that they will never be taken away again," he said.

<p>Steve Baker issued the warning to colleagues</p>


“People are telling me they are losing faith in our Conservative Party leadership because they are not standing up for our values as a party."

“If we continue forward with a strategy that hammers freedom, hammers the private sector, hammers small business owners and hammers the poor, inevitably the Prime Minister’s leadership will be on the table.

"We strongly do not want that after all we have been through as a country.”

But following the publication of the note Mr Baker took to social media to publicly endorse the prime minister's leadership.

"What this country needs is the complete success of Boris Johnson, with his excellent EU deal, a successful vaccination programme and a road to recovery back to freedom," he posted.

"I am clear Boris is the only person to lead us out of these difficulties and I support him in that endeavour."

Angela Rayner, Labour's deputy leaders said the Tories should focus on running the country rather than “fighting amongst themselves”.

“The Conservatives have presided over the worst recession of any major economy and worst excess death rate in Europe," she said.

“The British people need a government that is committed to defeating this virus and getting Britain vaccinated. Instead, the day after our country recorded the highest daily death toll since this crisis started, the Conservatives are playing politics and fighting amongst themselves.

“Labour is focusing on getting Britain vaccinated so we can secure our economy, protect our NHS and rebuild our country.”

At the moment he is supportive of Johnson, particularly in belief the vaccination programme will help end this, but this does show the longer this goes on the more likely Johnson will be ousted.
 

tommy2215

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Steve Baker of the CRG is openly saying Johnson could be subjected to a leadership challenge over lockdown:
This is good to hear, the more pressure the Tory backbenchers put on Boris the better, especially given that Her Majesty's Opposition refuse to provide any real opposition. Ironic that Starmer, a human rights lawyer, never actually speaks up for human rights!
 

Philip

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Steve Baker of the CRG is openly saying Johnson could be subjected to a leadership challenge over lockdown:




At the moment he is supportive of Johnson, particularly in belief the vaccination programme will help end this, but this does show the longer this goes on the more likely Johnson will be ousted.

A leadership contest is the last thing the country needs right now. Regardless of what people think of Johnson, we need stability. Stability is the best route for getting on top of this wave of cases and ultimately the easing of restrictions as soon as possible.
 

Philip

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which Johnson is entirely failing to deliver

How so? The situation is ever changing because of things like more transmissable varients emerging and many unknowns, which makes it very difficult to keep a consistent approach. I think the Johnson/the government are standing up reasonably well considering.
 

HLE

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A leadership contest is the last thing the country needs right now. Regardless of what people think of Johnson, we need stability. Stability is the best route for getting on top of this wave of cases and ultimately the easing of restrictions as soon as possible.

Agreed. Just needs to stand up to the lockdown lovers that advise him.
 

yorksrob

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What the country needs is an end to lockdowns and an alternative strategy for containing and managing the effects of the virus going forward. If Mr Johnson won't deliver that, he needs to stand down.
 

py_megapixel

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This government is an absolute farce. Throughout this entire event, starting from the first lockdown, none of the government's messaging has been consistent for more than a month or two at a time. We've had too many slogans, too many systems of tiers and levels, too many changes in the rules, and no consistency whatsoever in how they separate what is required and what isn't with this blending of laws and guidance. gov.uk says one thing, the speeches say another, the actual law says another.

Boris is incompetent, self-entitled, and not fit to run a country. To be fair, so are/were most government ministers over the past few years.
 

Philip

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What the country needs is an end to lockdowns and an alternative strategy for containing and managing the effects of the virus going forward. If Mr Johnson won't deliver that, he needs to stand down.

Which we have in the form of the vaccine!
 

yorksrob

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Which we have in the form of the vaccine!

And if there's an issue with the vaccine, such as a delay whilst it's reconfigured for a mutation for example ?

They need an alternative plan B to more lockdowns.
 

Philip

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And if there's an issue with the vaccine, such as a delay whilst it's reconfigured for a mutation for example ?

They need an alternative plan B to more lockdowns.

I think that is a bridge we cross if we come to it. No point worrying about it when so far it hasn't presented a problem. And even if it does happen, the vaccine companies have said they are confident they can tweak their vaccines in a matter of weeks or months to cope with this.

Really, we're very fortunate to have the vaccines by this point in the first place, thanks to hard work and research.
 

yorksrob

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I think that is a bridge we cross if we come to it. No point worrying about that when so far it hasn't presented a problem. And even if it does happen, the vaccine companies have said they are confident they can tweak their vaccines in a matter of weeks or months to cope with this.

I think we've gone too far to give the Government that leeway. This is lockdown 3 afterall.
 

brad465

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How so? The situation is ever changing because of things like more transmissable varients emerging and many unknowns, which makes it very difficult to keep a consistent approach. I think the Johnson/the government are standing up reasonably well considering.
Johnson will be going eventually before the next election, and likely this year, either because he's forced out as a liability to his party, or because he's running away from all his mess.
Which we have in the form of the vaccine!
Providing it works well enough long term and rolling out it to enough people that isn't the whole population sees everything lifted with nothing to return.
 

island

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Johnson will be going eventually before the next election, and likely this year, either because he's forced out as a liability to his party, or because he's running away from all his mess.
Or because he is mentally broken from all the effort.
 

HLE

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This government is an absolute farce. Throughout this entire event, starting from the first lockdown, none of the government's messaging has been consistent for more than a month or two at a time. We've had too many slogans, too many systems of tiers and levels, too many changes in the rules, and no consistency whatsoever in how they separate what is required and what isn't with this blending of laws and guidance. gov.uk says one thing, the speeches say another, the actual law says another.

Boris is incompetent, self-entitled, and not fit to run a country. To be fair, so are/were most government ministers over the past few years.

Allowing us as much freedom to do things as they dared is how I'd put it.

I also support the tier system approach rather than full lockdown.

It's because the silly media get hooked up on the rules having to cover off every possible eventuality when over zealous plods and their actions are front page. No wonder it's now over 100 pages!

The constant rhetoric of 'people are confused' trotted out by TV presenters is crap, and designed to reinforce their opinion that more restrictions are needed. A minority may be confused, probably from reading so called experts on Facebook.

Exercise is the best one; Stay local, meet only one person you don't live with in a public place and keep your 2m distance. Local further defined as village, town or city. Seems fairly clear to me.

There are drink drive laws, but that doesn't mean I have to drink and then drive. There is guidance on support bubbles but it doesn't mean I need to form one.

Appreciate some people are thick, travelling to Wales from Leicester being one of them.
 

MikeWM

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This is good to hear, the more pressure the Tory backbenchers put on Boris the better, especially given that Her Majesty's Opposition refuse to provide any real opposition.

This is true - though I think the threat of a leadership content is probably better than an actual contest at this point. I don't see any of the likely candidates actually being any better than Johnson, and some would probably be worse. (In terms of outcome that is. I'm sure most of them would be more professional and competent, but see eg. Sturgeon or Macron - that doesn't help much).

Ironic that Starmer, a human rights lawyer, never actually speaks up for human rights!

Indeed - he has been a severe disappointment. Though most human rights lawyers and organisations have been deeply disappointing over the last year.
 

yorksrob

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Allowing us as much freedom to do things as they dared is how I'd put it.

I also support the tier system approach rather than full lockdown.

It's because the silly media get hooked up on the rules having to cover off every possible eventuality when over zealous plods and their actions are front page. No wonder it's now over 100 pages!

The constant rhetoric of 'people are confused' trotted out by TV presenters is crap, and designed to reinforce their opinion that more restrictions are needed. A minority may be confused, probably from reading so called experts on Facebook.

Exercise is the best one; Stay local, meet only one person you don't live with in a public place and keep your 2m distance. Local further defined as village, town or city. Seems fairly clear to me.

Appreciate some people are thick, travelling to Wales from Leicester being one of them.

I don't agree with the "stay local" bit either and think it should be ditched with lockdown. It is as bad as lockdown, particularly for those of us whose contacts are slightly further afield.
 

takno

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Indeed - he has been a severe disappointment. Though most human rights lawyers and organisations have been deeply disappointing over the last year.
It's been pretty disappointing, but he's up against a strength of public opinion, driven by the press and international trends. If he'd been leader at the start he might have been able to have more influence, but in a lot of ways our course has been set since March.
 

Bantamzen

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Allowing us as much freedom to do things as they dared is how I'd put it.

I also support the tier system approach rather than full lockdown.

It's because the silly media get hooked up on the rules having to cover off every possible eventuality when over zealous plods and their actions are front page. No wonder it's now over 100 pages!

The constant rhetoric of 'people are confused' trotted out by TV presenters is crap, and designed to reinforce their opinion that more restrictions are needed. A minority may be confused, probably from reading so called experts on Facebook.

Exercise is the best one; Stay local, meet only one person you don't live with in a public place and keep your 2m distance. Local further defined as village, town or city. Seems fairly clear to me.

There are drink drive laws, but that doesn't mean I have to drink and then drive. There is guidance on support bubbles but it doesn't mean I need to form one.

Appreciate some people are thick, travelling to Wales from Leicester being one of them.
The only problem with the stay in your village, town or city message is that for many villages in particular staying in the village might not be an option. There are many with few, if any amenities, and so people living there have no option but to leave them or struggle for online delivery slots. Even defining a local radius could be problematic for many places. Better just to ask people to stay as local as possible.
 

HLE

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I don't agree with the "stay local" bit either and think it should be ditched with lockdown. It is as bad as lockdown, particularly for those of us whose contacts are slightly further afield.

No I agree with you there. The rant was more about the media's claim that it isn't clear guidance when it is. I definitely don't agree with it

Personally speaking my golf club is in the next city as is my workplace.
 

yorksrob

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No I agree with you there. The rant was more about the media's claim that it isn't clear guidance when it is. I definitely don't agree with it

Personally speaking my golf club is in the next city as is my workplace.

Yes, I must admit, I've not found the guidance that difficult to understand - definitely helps having this forum to decode it all !
 

Envy123

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I don't agree with the "stay local" bit either and think it should be ditched with lockdown. It is as bad as lockdown, particularly for those of us whose contacts are slightly further afield.

I live in the regions and my good private doctors who specialise in my condition are 70+ miles away. That's the disadvantage of living out in the sticks.

I hope I'm not breaking any guidance by travelling by train to Farringdon for a medical appointment!
 

takno

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No I agree with you there. The rant was more about the media's claim that it isn't clear guidance when it is. I definitely don't agree with it

Personally speaking my golf club is in the next city as is my workplace.
So you think that the guidance is clear, even though you appear to have misunderstood it, and potentially have to break the guidance as you understand it to be in order to go into work?
 
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