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New lockdown in England, including school closures, announced by Johnson, 4/1/21

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Mugby

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One does wonder if it was a wise decision to keep restrictions over the late spring / summer period last year. Would we be in a better position now if they had “let it rip” over the summer and built up some immunity?

However we could have ended up in a worse position going into the winter, starting from an even higher base than we did.

At times it does seem like whatever they try to do with this virus is doomed from the outset. We have to hope that doesn’t apply to the vaccine too - every day I half expect to turn on the news to “new mutation renders vaccine ineffective” headlines - especially if as some conspiracies believe it is true that this was a deliberate invention by the China regime!

Yes. I agree.

"No responsible government could ever allow the virus to let rip"
How many times have you heard Boris say that - but that's exactly what it is doing, it's out of the bottle and it will do exactly what it wants to do until it diminishes on it's own. The idea that you can have a government controlled virus is nonsensical - 'Let's lock everybody away for a couple of months and when we let them out again it will all have gone away' - believe that if you will!

Similarly, the Hands, Face, Space rubbish regularly pops up in adverts on the commercial channels and it must surely have come from the 'we must be seen to be doing something, however futile' perspective.

Hands, I haven't washed my hands any more than I ever have.
Face, millions of people (including me) wearing those cheap blue masks which are not intended for outside use and known to be totally ineffective.
Space, there isn't any 'social distancing'. Wherever you go, in shops, in the street, any notion that this actually happens is pure fallacy.

It's rather like the appeal, during the war, for people to give their pots and pans to build Spitfires, of course it was rubbish but people bought it, they really thought they were 'doing their bit'. Great PR but it did nothing except prove how gullible people are.
Herd mentality, you can't stop that either!
 
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bramling

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Yes. I agree.

"No responsible government could ever allow the virus to let rip"
How many times have you heard Boris say that - but that's exactly what it is doing, it's out of the bottle and it will do exactly what it wants to do until it diminishes on it's own. The idea that you can have a government controlled virus is nonsensical - 'Let's lock everybody away for a couple of months and when we let them out again it will all have gone away' - believe that if you will!

Similarly, the Hands, Face, Space rubbish regularly pops up in adverts on the commercial channels and it must surely have come from the 'we must be seen to be doing something, however futile' perspective.

Hands, I haven't washed my hands any more than I ever have.
Face, millions of people (including me) wearing those cheap blue masks which are not intended for outside use and known to be totally ineffective.
Space, there isn't any 'social distancing'. Wherever you go, in shops, in the street, any notion that this actually happens is pure fallacy.

It's rather like the appeal, during the war, for people to give their pots and pans to build Spitfires, of course it was rubbish but people bought it, they really thought they were 'doing their bit'. Great PR but it did nothing except prove how gullible people are.
Herd mentality, you can't stop that either!

Great post.

Unfortunately the mentality of some of the population was demonstrated when toilet rolls were panic bought!
 

Bikeman78

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Yes. I agree.

"No responsible government could ever allow the virus to let rip"
How many times have you heard Boris say that - but that's exactly what it is doing, it's out of the bottle and it will do exactly what it wants to do until it diminishes on it's own. The idea that you can have a government controlled virus is nonsensical - 'Let's lock everybody away for a couple of months and when we let them out again it will all have gone away' - believe that if you will!
It does make me wonder what will happen if a disease turns up for which no vaccine is possible. Hopefully I'll be long gone when it happens.
 

Darandio

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Just noticed more lies, this time from Gavin Williamson.

When questioned earlier by MP's, particularly on the legal battle to stop Greenwich council in London closing schools a few days before the Christmas break he stated the following:

“at that stage we were not aware of the new variant”.

Yet that new variant was known about in September.
 

HLE

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I think he means or meant to say they weren't aware that it was significantly more infectious than the old strain. It's why Tier 3 worked in most of the country but not London and the South East. Or so they said.
 

yorkie

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It was already mentioned in another reply but the cases of a boat party of 40 people, or a minibus of people driving to Wales.
I hope you aren't going to defend that behaviour.
I don't see what that has got to do with recent announcements?

These are extreme examples of people who are NOT going to modify their behaviour.

The recent changes are about fining people who do minor things; indeed I note disgraced police forces have had to apologise and cancel numerous fines lately.


I mean isn't that what laws generally are?
No.

Sure you get a minority of people who break the law but by and large people do behave in a certain way - they generally respect the law.
While it is true that the vast majority of people will be abiding by the actual laws, the police are going well beyond enforcing the law, and people won't respect that.

Do you have a source for that given that cases were rising pretty much countrywide before hand?
You are the one who referred to a drop being linked to the additional restrictions, so I'd be interested to hear your source?

Take a look at this graph (source)
tests.jpg
Image shows percentage of tests positive declining before the lockdown came into effect on Wednesday 6th January.
 

Jimini

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The guard on the train I'm on at the moment is a bit lively..

"You WILL wear a face covering over both your nose and mouth. If you are exempt then you'll need to provide your exemption certificate"

"BTP are boarding this train prior to departure to ensure only essential journeys are being made. If you are not you will be ejected from the train" (they didn't in my carriage, at least)

"If you are sitting too close to other passengers I WILL move you"
 

221129

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The guard on the train I'm on at the moment is a bit lively..

"You WILL wear a face covering over both your nose and mouth. If you are exempt then you'll need to provide your exemption certificate"

"BTP are boarding this train prior to departure to ensure only essential journeys are being made. If you are not you will be ejected from the train" (they didn't in my carriage, at least)

"If you are sitting too close to other passengers I WILL move you"
People like that give every guard a bad name, it's embarassing.
 

Domh245

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The guard on the train I'm on at the moment is a bit lively..

"You WILL wear a face covering over both your nose and mouth. If you are exempt then you'll need to provide your exemption certificate"

"BTP are boarding this train prior to departure to ensure only essential journeys are being made. If you are not you will be ejected from the train" (they didn't in my carriage, at least)

"If you are sitting too close to other passengers I WILL move you"

I hope you're reporting this overzealous guard to their TOC?
 

Crossover

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The guard on the train I'm on at the moment is a bit lively..

"You WILL wear a face covering over both your nose and mouth. If you are exempt then you'll need to provide your exemption certificate"

"BTP are boarding this train prior to departure to ensure only essential journeys are being made. If you are not you will be ejected from the train" (they didn't in my carriage, at least)

"If you are sitting too close to other passengers I WILL move you"
Sounds like a lot of hot air - I wonder whether said guard would actually follow through on their threats...
 

Watershed

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I wonder what would happen if he tried to challenge someone for an "exemption certificate", given that such a document does not exist.
Sounds like he would refuse to move the train until that person got off, and would call BTP.
 
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infobleep

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I think he means or meant to say they weren't aware that it was significantly more infectious than the old strain. It's why Tier 3 worked in most of the country but not London and the South East. Or so they said.
What about the Isles of Silly. They went from Tier 1 to all tiers restriction.

Perhaps they were preempting the fact eventually tier 1 wouldn't work there.
 

Bertie the bus

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I think he means or meant to say they weren't aware that it was significantly more infectious than the old strain. It's why Tier 3 worked in most of the country but not London and the South East. Or so they said.
Has there been any compelling evidence that is true? So much points to it not being, e.g. constant claims it is so contagious even full lockdown won’t stop it when cases in London peaked at the end of last year and started falling before lockdown was introduced, the growth in cases mirrored the growth in cases in the North West in late October and that wasn't blamed on a scary mutant, plus various other things that point to it not being true.
 

Class 33

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Just had a very quick check of the news and I see that professor Fergusson is saying that a lockdown until AUTUMN is needed!!! What absolute nonsense! He can shove that!
 

duncanp

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Just had a very quick check of the news and I see that professor Fergusson is saying that a lockdown until AUTUMN is needed!!! What absolute nonsense! He can shove that!

According to the BBC, Professor Pantsdown said:-

Prof Ferguson added Covid measures could be in place for many months to come, adding the new variant's increased transmissibility would mean relaxation of the rules will be a "gradual process to the autumn".

This does not mean that we will stay with the current level of restrictions until the autumn, as it would be political and economic suicide for the government.

To extend the furlough scheme until September would saddle the country with a huge debt which will take decades to pay off.

Also many businesses are burning through cash reserves and taking out loans in the hope that there will be an easing of restrictions in the spring.

Continuing the lockdown in its' current form until the autumn would most likely lead to huge numbers of bankruptcies and business failures, possibly including some household names.

At some point, we have to say, "..we cannot afford to do this any more..."

What I think Professor Pantsdown means is that there will be some level of restrictions until the autumn.

For instance, pubs may re-open in March or April, but it could be August or September before we are back to what they were like pre-COVID. (ie. no social distancing, service from the bar only, no restrictions on opening times, no restrictions on live music and things like quiz nights, no masks, hand sanitiser, track & trace, mixing between households inside allowed, no limit on group sizes.)

Edit : Writing down all the changes that have happened to pubs makes me realise the full impact of the pandemic on every day life. It is getting more and more difficult to remember what life was like BC. (which in this case means "..Before COVID..")
 
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NorthOxonian

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Just had a very quick check of the news and I see that professor Fergusson is saying that a lockdown until AUTUMN is needed!!! What absolute nonsense! He can shove that!
His logic is that only 20% of people have had the virus but there have been 100,000 deaths, so any easing now would lead to a similar number again, since only a very small percentage have been vaccinated.

But he's acting as if we're just giving the vaccine to random people, rather than being targeted specifically to reduce deaths. By mid-February the groups accounting for 88% of deaths should have been vaccinated, and by an unspecified point in the spring (probably April) then the groups accounting for 99% of deaths would have been too. At that point, even if everyone got it, we'd only expect a few thousand deaths. That isn't great, but is far less awful than the utter misery we're currently inflicting on many millions.
 

bramling

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According to the BBC, Professor Pantsdown said:-

He can do one. It's already obvious people are voting with their feet on this - all this week my journey to work has had worse traffic than a normal weekday. People aren't staying at home, and there's no point pursuing a policy dead-end which isn't getting mass buy-in.
 

yorksrob

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I see that Fergusson is quoted as saying that the death toll would be "well over 100,000" as though this is some sort of a surprise. Given that COVID will be one of the conditions that finish off people at the end of life for ever more, the death toll will be rising in perpetuity anyway.
 

bramling

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I see that Fergusson is quoted as saying that the death toll would be "well over 100,000" as though this is some sort of a surprise. Given that COVID will be one of the conditions that finish off people at the end of life for ever more, the death toll will be rising in perpetuity anyway.

There really needs to be a mature discourse about this, including a degree of expectation management. It's all very well the media in particular keeping talking of "grim death toll", however I would like too see some proper analysis of how many of these people would have died anyway in short order.
 

Mag_seven

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There really needs to be a mature discourse about this, including a degree of expectation management. It's all very well the media in particular keeping talking of "grim death toll", however I would like too see some proper analysis of how many of these people would have died anyway in short order.

There also needs to be a quashing of the "all these deaths were preventable" narrative that seems to be creeping in. (by deaths I mean those that occurred prior to better treatments and the vaccine)
 

bramling

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There also needs to be a quashing of the "all these deaths were preventable" narrative that seems to be creeping in.

And, in all honesty, the government has a duty to do that. Certainly in any follow-up inquiry I would expect this to be a key line of exploration. I bet it will be fudged, though.
 

brad465

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A good example I think of why, despite our best efforts, Covid can never always be the number one priority we deal with, thanks to the weather:


Coronavirus testing centres and hundreds of schools in parts of Yorkshire have been forced to close by heavy snow.

About 300 schools in West Yorkshire have closed to all pupils, and about 50 in both North and South Yorkshire.

Covid testing centres in Kirklees and Bradford also suspended operations due to the weather.

A yellow Met Office "be aware" warning for snow and ice remains in force until 21:00 GMT.

Due to coronavirus restrictions schools are only open to children considered to be vulnerable and those whose parents are key workers.
 

Philip

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People like that give every guard a bad name, it's embarassing.

I don't know about that. I suspect a fair proportion of passengers on the train probably thought 'good on the guard for getting tough on the flouters'. It reads a bit over-zealous and petty, but I guess a fair number of traincrew/station staff are getting fed up of seeing people flouting the rules.
 

duncanp

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I see that Fergusson is quoted as saying that the death toll would be "well over 100,000" as though this is some sort of a surprise. Given that COVID will be one of the conditions that finish off people at the end of life for ever more, the death toll will be rising in perpetuity anyway.

Ah, yes, Professor Pantsdown has such a good record on predictions doesn't he?

  • Foot & Mouth (2001) - predicted 150,000 : actual less than 200
  • BSE (2002) - predicted 50,000 : actual 177
  • Bird Flu (2005) - predicted 150,000,000 : actual 282
  • Swine Flu (2009) - predicted 65,000 : actual 457
  • COVID-19 - predicted 500,000

Given that the death toll is currently just above 84,000, it is not unreasonable to assume it could top 100,000 by the end of this year.
 
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