New lockdown in England, including school closures, announced by Johnson, 4/1/21

[bramling]

If that's a risk that must be borne, then so be it, just so long as the rest of us aren't expected to live in isolation to counterbalance it.

Quite so.

It's interesting to observe at my place that pretty much all the positive cases I know about are people with school-age kids. The earliest case was coincidentally one of the people most vocal about restrictions!

 

[yorksrob]

Quite so.

It's interesting to observe at my place that pretty much all the positive cases I know about are people with school-age kids. The earliest case was coincidentally one of the people most vocal about restrictions!

The only case I know of, of someone in my office was someone who's wife is a nurse.

 

[HSTEd]

I know two people personally who have (told me) they had it.

One is operations manager of student bars (non student union) at my University - he says something like two thirds of the uni bar staff got it in September.

The other is a worker at what amounts to a nuclear scrap merchant in deepest rural Cumbria.

 

[Yew]

The other is a worker at what amounts to a nuclear scrap merchant in deepest rural Cumbria.

So that's how the 'mutant' strain happened

 

[HSTEd]

So that's how the 'mutant' strain happened

This is what happens when you decommission nuclear in favour of new fangled renewables!

 

[johntea]

Oh great, who thought it would be a wise idea to let the bully Priti Patel lead a press conference?!

Who on earth is going to pay any attention to her when she broke ministerial code yet somehow didn’t get the boot!

 

[Silverlinky]

The peak was actually before the current lockdown started, so definitely not "lockdown measures starting to work". You need to look at the positive tests by specimen date, not by reported date, to get an accurate picture of the trend. The ZOE survey also confirms that infections peaked before the current lockdown.

Before the current lockdown, but during the period when places were going up tier by tier, restrictions were slowly being tightened many weeks before the full lockdown....these will have had an effect. Similarly children in my area have not been to school since December 18th, this again two weeks before "lockdown 3", Universities closed for Christmas a week or so before that even.

There will be many reasons why cases would decline over a period of time......lockdown is just one of them.

 

[kez19]

Oh great, who thought it would be a wise idea to let the bully Priti Patel lead a press conference?!

Who on earth is going to pay any attention to her when she broke ministerial code yet somehow didn’t get the boot!

Still though it’s material for Spitting Image

 

[tommy2215]

45,533 cases reported today. That's about 15k less than last Tuesday! Very good news, assuming that there's not a huge lag in reported cases.

 

[Silverlinky]

45,533 new cases reported today, the lowest total since December 28th and down 25% on last Tuesdays figure of 60,916

 

[Yew]

Once more, the media are clamouring for tougher rules, rather than assurances that the rules are effective and the least restrictive measures possible (as required by the PHA under which they are implemented.)

 

[HLE]

Anyone else noticed the BBC haven't reported the case & death rates anywhere near as widely as last week? No push notifications, no front page headline.....does the slowdown in infection rates affect their narrative of let's stop excersise?

 

[Silverlinky]

Anyone else noticed the BBC haven't reported the case & death rates anywhere near as widely as last week? No push notifications, no front page headline.....does the slowdown in infection rates affect their narrative of let's stop excersise?

I think we all know the answer to that one!!

 

[bramling]

Oh great, who thought it would be a wise idea to let the bully Priti Patel lead a press conference?!

She's certainly a quick route to civil disobedience.

A terrible performer.

 

[HLE]

Once more, the media are clamouring for tougher rules, rather than assurances that the rules are effective and the least restrictive measures possible (as required by the PHA under which they are implemented.)

Socialists, all loving the idea of state controlled authoritarian regimes.

Until it affects them. Why no big fuss about Piers Morgan jetting off to Antigua for Christmas?

 

[Silverlinky]

Socialists, all loving the idea of state controlled authoritarian regimes.

Until it affects them. Why no big fuss about Piers Morgan jetting off to Antigua for Christmas?

Yet lets all hang Boris for taking a bike ride!

 

[Yew]

Socialists, all loving the idea of state controlled authoritarian regimes.

Until it affects them. Why no big fuss about Piers Morgan jetting off to Antigua for Christmas?

There's a definite lack of socialism in our media

 

[WelshBluebird]

Anyone else noticed the BBC haven't reported the case & death rates anywhere near as widely as last week? No push notifications, no front page headline.....does the slowdown in infection rates affect their narrative of let's stop excersise?

I mean we have just had the second highest number of deaths in a day, and the two specifics examples of people breaking the rules mentioned in the press briefing are exactly the kind of behaviour that the police are trying to stamp out, but yeah by all means have a go at the BBC again.

Hopefully the daily cases dropping is a sign that the restrictions are starting to work, but even so 40k cases a a day is still much much higher than what we saw back in the summer so you shouldn't get too excited just yet. Let's at least wait for the deaths to start to fall again too.

 

[HLE]

I mean we have just had the second highest number of deaths in a day, and the two specifics examples of people breaking the rules mentioned in the press briefing are exactly the kind of behaviour that the police are trying to stamp out, but yeah by all means have a go at the BBC again.

Hopefully the daily cases dropping is a sign that the restrictions are starting to work, but even so 40k cases a a day is still much much higher than what we saw back in the summer so you shouldn't get too excited just yet. Let's at least wait for the deaths to start to fall again too.

Deaths always lag behind infections, that's been seen throughout. My point is, if infections are falling, and data from the last few days indicates it is, then why are the media constantly pursuing this one issue about outdoor exercise, along with tightening restrictions? Chris Whitty and most of the advisers I've heard this week all said similar things - the risk is low outdoors.

 

[Silverlinky]

I mean we have just had the second highest number of deaths in a day, and the two specifics examples of people breaking the rules mentioned in the press briefing are exactly the kind of behaviour that the police are trying to stamp out, but yeah by all means have a go at the BBC again.

Hopefully the daily cases dropping is a sign that the restrictions are starting to work, but even so 40k cases a a day is still much much higher than what we saw back in the summer so you shouldn't get too excited just yet. Let's at least wait for the deaths to start to fall again too.

Agreed in part....obviously the high numbers of cases will lead to higher numbers of deaths, so there will always be that lag in figures.....
We should be pleased that cases are falling as death figures will also fall as a result.....
Not forgetting that testing is far higher now so more cases will inevitably be picked up....(when comparing now to last summer)
Small steps......and the three consecutive days of falls compared to the equivalent day last week are a small step.

 

[HLE]

Yet lets all hang Boris for taking a bike ride!

Should be impeached!

If we have such a thing in this country of course.

 

[Ediswan]

Deaths always lag behind infections, that's been seen throughout. My point is, if infections are falling, and data from the last few days indicates it is, then why are the media constantly pursuing this one issue about outdoor exercise, along with tightening restrictions? Chris Whitty and most of the advisers I've heard this week all said similar things - the risk is low outdoors.

I caught Chris Whitty on a BBC News Q&A yesterday. He came very close to saying that there was no risk from briefly passsing somebody in the street, without face coverings.

 

[duncanp]

The peak was actually before the current lockdown started, so definitely not "lockdown measures starting to work". You need to look at the positive tests by specimen date, not by reported date, to get an accurate picture of the trend. The ZOE survey also confirms that infections peaked before the current lockdown.

Point taken.

Whatever measure you use, it would seem that infections are at or just past their peak.

The cuurent lockdown, plus the increasing effect of the vaccination program, should see the figures come down fairly quickly in the next few weeks.

 

[Domh245]

My point is, if infections are falling, and data from the last few days indicates it is, then why are the media constantly pursuing this one issue about outdoor exercise, along with tightening restrictions? Chris Whitty and most of the advisers I've heard this week all said similar things - the risk is low outdoors.

They're mostly pursuing those stories because doom and gloom sells papers (or gets clicks these days)

However, it isn't enough for infections to just be falling, they need to be brought down to a level such that the healthcare system isn't being overwhelmed, a gradual descent where several weeks from now we're still seeing tens of thousands of new cases will still be more than the health system can cope with. If you subscribe to the "harsher restrictions = more rapid fall in cases" (a "common sense" approach) then it follows that you'd be campaigning for harsher restrictions

 

[johntea]

John Lewis suspending click and collect...but you can still get a John Lewis parcel delivered to Waitrose - err what?!

They're blaming the change of 'government message' but I suspect the real reason is it isn't currently profitable enough to have staff hanging around John Lewis stores to deal with click and collect

Also "existing orders and bookings for services, such as installing washing machines, will still be carried out, if customers wish to proceed, but there will be no further bookings for non-essential services"...I would consider having a replacement washing machine fitted if your old one suddenly went pop a fairly essential service to be honest!

 

[Solent&Wessex]

Indeed. Me and my partner complied with that for about a month at the start. Precious little thought has been given to people in that situation by the people in power. A cynic would say that as it's an issue that disproportionately affects young people, they aren't interested.

I think this situation does disproportionately affect young people and hasn't really been considered. Although I do remember someone asking a question at one of the press briefings not that long ago about such situations and the response was basically "if you can't legally form a support bubble then no you can't meet inside, sorry".

Whilst, despite still feeling young, I wouldn't count myself as that young. But I know a good number of young people and many still live with their parents and may have long term partners who still live their parents, or they live in multi-occupancy shared households which generally prohibit support bubbles unless everyone in the household agrees to be in the same bubble - which is often not the case as other young people in the shared household may also have partners, or somebody's parents may want to be in a support bubble with other family members etc. The end result is that people in such relationships end up breaking the rules, or else are they expected to stay celibate and not have any intimacy, or even kiss or hug, with their partner for a year or more??

Exactly this. When you close off all other options, people will meet at home. There is no way this can possibly be policed. Many people are not scared any more. I don't know anyone that has suffered badly, let alone died. Lots of people will be in the same boat. Many thousands more will have had it and survived unharmed. What reason do they have to be scared? Past pandemics have been "over" when the majority cease to be scared and crack on with life as normal. I suspect we'll reach that point early summer.

I know a good number of people who have tested positive and had the virus. I have not knowingly had it. Only one of those people required mild medical attention but they recovered and are now as fit as a fiddle with no after effects. One was quite ill and reported being bed bound feeling positively unwell for a week or so, but he also reported recovering almost as quickly as he he went downhill and is now fit and well. All the rest suffered no more than very mild symptoms and were not affected in any way at all. Some had no symptoms at all.

I think that Bradford had about a month (as an example) then has been in some form of lockdown ever since. I'm not sure what the situation has been in Leicester.

I'm not sure what the situation has been around staying in peoples houses. I've only stayed in hotels outside of my home, so haven't really followed it.

Yeah Bradford has more or less been in perma-lockdown for almost a year now, and we are sick of it.

As a resident of the Bradford Council area (unfortunately) I seem to recall that there was a period of about 1 month (July?) last year where we were allowed to socialise indoors with other households. I seem to recall that additional restrictions were imposed prohibiting it sometime in August, which were then relaxed again in some wards as there was a big hoo-har from the rural wards which, at the time, had literally zero cases of covid - at the time all the cases were focused on the wards around Bradford city itself, and were for some considerable time. The rules were then put back in the rural wards again early September I think and since then it has been illegal to meet any other person from any other household, apart from support bubbles, in any indoor setting.

Further to my last point about people meeting in homes - I will admit to breaking the rules, in a purely limited and specific way, simply for my own sanity. I live alone, for various reasons it has not been possible to form an exclusive support bubble, so I have a small group of a handful of friends who I see in my house, or theirs, every so often. Never more than 2 or 3 of us at a time and always the same people. But we live in separate households. Simply I am not living like a hermit with no human contact for any longer and need to see and meet people in person for my own sanity and wellbeing.

I mean we have just had the second highest number of deaths in a day, and the two specifics examples of people breaking the rules mentioned in the press briefing are exactly the kind of behaviour that the police are trying to stamp out, but yeah by all means have a go at the BBC again.

Hopefully the daily cases dropping is a sign that the restrictions are starting to work, but even so 40k cases a a day is still much much higher than what we saw back in the summer so you shouldn't get too excited just yet. Let's at least wait for the deaths to start to fall again too.

The examples from the briefing - a boat party of 40 people; an illegal rave attracting hundreds; a party of over 10 from different households driving in a minibus from Cheltenham to Wales for a trip to the countryside to name just 3 - are quite obviously silly and are the kind of behaviour that - for now - should not be happening.

However going on a 7 mile bike ride or a 10 mile walk in the country I can see no problem with. I walked 11.5 miles from my home across the moors with one other person from a different household (part of the group mentioned above) last weekend. We saw hardly anyone all day, and the few we did see were other walkers, outside, going the opposite way who we saw for only a few seconds. We stopped and got a hot chocolate towards the end of the walk from a cafe and drank this whilst walking the last stages on the walk along the roads. We then got a bus back home. There were only 4 people in total on the bus and we all sat well apart. I cannot see any problem with that.

 

[bramling]

John Lewis suspending click and collect...but you can still get a John Lewis parcel delivered to Waitrose - err what?!

They're blaming the change of 'government message' but I suspect the real reason is it isn't currently profitable enough to have staff hanging around John Lewis stores to deal with click and collect

Also "existing orders and bookings for services, such as installing washing machines, will still be carried out, if customers wish to proceed, but there will be no further bookings for non-essential services"...I would consider having a replacement washing machine fitted if your old one suddenly went pop a fairly essential service to be honest!

That does sound ominous for John Lewis. Were it not for Waitrose I suspect they'd already be in serious trouble.

 

[island]

She's certainly a quick route to civil disobedience.

This forum has been predicting mass civil disobedience for months. It has not, to date, materialized.

 

[HLE]

They're mostly pursuing those stories because doom and gloom sells papers (or gets clicks these days)

However, it isn't enough for infections to just be falling, they need to be brought down to a level such that the healthcare system isn't being overwhelmed, a gradual descent where several weeks from now we're still seeing tens of thousands of new cases will still be more than the health system can cope with. If you subscribe to the "harsher restrictions = more rapid fall in cases" (a "common sense" approach) then it follows that you'd be campaigning for harsher restrictions

Ah yes, the happy news doesn't sell. I get that.

I subscribe to restrictions that will slow down the rate the quickest so we can all get back to normal. If that means more non essential workplaces being closed, schools being closed completely, even for a fortnight, it would help.
Indoor settings is what I'm getting at, and why I'm at a loss with the media silence on it.

What I don't subscribe to is the media and public witchunt over outdoor excersise restrictions being tightened, when as myself and other posters have pointed out, the scientists say the risk is low. Common sense should tell you that it is.

 

[takno]

I'm all for such a discussion, however the quid pro quo according to SAGE etc seems to be that everything else has to be in permanent lockdown. Any solution needs to accommodate everyone's need for human contact/activity.

I'm all for schools reopening - I think it's incredibly important. Hospitality appears to cause about 5% of the spread of schools though. There's no point even pretending that you're doing something useful by closing it down. This whole policy of "life ends at 18, but death must be prevented until 98" is insane