New lockdown in England, including school closures, announced by Johnson, 4/1/21

[DustyBin]

Feeling rubbish after being ill is nothing new. I once caught a stomach bug. I spent the best part of 36 hours being sick. I had no idea my stomach could hold so much liquid but even after there was nothing left to come out it kept trying. It felt like the life was draining out of me. After the vomiting stopped, it took over a week for my appetite to come back properly.

No you’re absolutely right there. I’ve had a similar experience to you with a stomach bug, absolutely awful! It pales though in comparison to when I randomly contracted pneumonia last summer. A seemingly minor cold type thing led to a secondary bacterial infection in my lungs and it all turned rather nasty. It lasted about two weeks before the a senior nurse finally prescribed me some strong antibiotics by which time I’d cracked a rib through coughing so violently. My poor GF genuinely thought I was dying at one point, she even had me worried. The first nurse I saw thought it was man flu, it was only when I went back the following week and her senior got involved that they took it seriously. I had one lung more or less full of fluid by that point. Anyway, I didn’t set out to give you my medical history, only to say that there are plenty of illnesses that take a while to recover from, that’s just the way it is unfortunately.

 

[Bikeman78]

No you’re absolutely right there. I’ve had a similar experience to you with a stomach bug, absolutely awful! It pales though in comparison to when I randomly contracted pneumonia last summer. A seemingly minor cold type thing led to a secondary bacterial infection in my lungs and it all turned rather nasty. It lasted about two weeks before the a senior nurse finally prescribed me some strong antibiotics by which time I’d cracked a rib through coughing so violently. My poor GF genuinely thought I was dying at one point, she even had me worried. The first nurse I saw thought it was man flu, it was only when I went back the following week and her senior got involved that they took it seriously. I had one lung more or less full of fluid by that point. Anyway, I didn’t set out to give you my medical history, only to say that there are plenty of illnesses that take a while to recover from, that’s just the way it is unfortunately.

I know what you mean about coughs. I don't get them often but when I do it takes weeks, sometimes months, to shift them and it usually hurts to cough by the time it goes. Ironically, having felt rough at the beginning of 2019, I've not had so much as a cough or cold since the first lockdown.

 

[Bayum]

Been through the schools discussion, from my experience there is limited transmission in schools and, to be honest, we really shouldn't be too bothered if there was. Not really going to be an issue for a teenager and, realistically, nor for their parents. Before we start going on about older members of the family, that us up to them whether they want to see grandchildren or not.

Reports in the TES stating that secondary teachers in Leeds are 333% more likely to become diagnosed with COVID than anyone else. We also saw a sharp uptick in covid cases (symptomatic and asymptomatic) in primary and secondary-aged pupils in the final week of the term.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 7 Jan 2021 ==

You are always going to get exposed to viruses when working at a school. If you have a compromised immune system and/or don't keep yourself healthy and fit, don't work in a school would be my advice. I must get exposed to many viruses and yet I don't get ill because I have built up immunity. I would be very surprised if I don't have immunity to one of the endemic Cornaviruses which confers good immunity against Sars-Cov-2. Unfortunately the current restrictions may make me ill as they affect my mental health, and the workload placed on me could also affect my stress levels. In summary, I am at increased risk due to the actions taken to limit the spread of the virus, NOT due to the circulation of the virus. Others may differ, but that's the situation with me.

So I should throw away the years of study I did for my primary education career because my immune system is artificially shot with drugs? Think about what you’re saying before you say it, please. You know as well as I do that schools are a breeding ground for impetigo and coughs and colds and chickenpox - but relatively safe as an adult keeping our distance from the children, having a better understanding of hygiene etc. Covid is completely different to the usual Petri dish that is a school and you know it.

 

[Bertie the bus]

Been through the schools discussion, from my experience there is limited transmission in schools and, to be honest, we really shouldn't be too bothered if there was. Not really going to be an issue for a teenager and, realistically, nor for their parents. Before we start going on about older members of the family, that us up to them whether they want to see grandchildren or not.

It's not important if it goes round schools and then the parents? Is that because parents are just parents and do absolutely nothing else or, perhaps the more likely scenario, parents are just like everybody else and go to work, go shopping, and do many other normal things and can therefore transmit it to people who have nothing to do with the school and then something which started as just a problem in schools spreads and spreads? Of course it matters if there is transmission in schools and the statement that it is minimal is just wrong. Once the most vulnerable have been vaccinated it won't matter much if it is transmitted in schools but that is weeks off.

 

[yorksrob]

I thought we were discussing whether closing pubs was effective in reducing the spread of infections, and not what you choose to call "tinkering" with take-out beer.

Apologies - I thought we were talking about take-out.

But yes, given all of the other sectors of every day life which are continuing, in which the spread of the virus is happenning, closing hospitality will have a very limited effect.

 

[35B]

Been through the schools discussion, from my experience there is limited transmission in schools and, to be honest, we really shouldn't be too bothered if there was. Not really going to be an issue for a teenager and, realistically, nor for their parents. Before we start going on about older members of the family, that us up to them whether they want to see grandchildren or not.

All of which assumes limited asymptomatic transmission. My question is based on the emerging suggestion that the role of schools in transmission has been underestimated, because they’re not resulting in visible symptomatic cases.

 

[yorkie]

Reports in the TES stating that secondary teachers in Leeds are 333% more likely to become diagnosed with COVID than anyone else.

Without a link and quote, this is meaningless, but I can't imagine it's true given it would be headline news if it was. The reality is that it doesn't even feature in this report:

Coronavirus (COVID-19) related deaths by occupation, England and Wales - Office for National Statistics

Provisional analysis of deaths involving the coronavirus (COVID-19), by different occupational groups, among males and females aged 20 to 64 years in England and Wales.

www.ons.gov.uk

Provisional analysis of deaths involving the coronavirus (COVID-19), by different occupational groups, among men and women aged 20 to 64 years in England and Wales.

We also saw a sharp uptick in covid cases (symptomatic and asymptomatic) in primary and secondary-aged pupils in the final week of the term.

It's interesting how someone who has not developed any disease is counted as being a Coronavirus disease 'case'

I have been surprised at how few staff have tested positive, under the circumstances. All our staff who tested positive were, as far as I am aware, either asymptomatic or had very mild illness. Some staff have been very ill recently with some off for several days and one even hospitalised. All tested negative for Sars-Cov-2. The one hospitalisation was due to a rhinovirus (but was placed in a Covid ward until they tested negative).

As is normal, I saw several students become ill in school and had to be picked up by parents to be taken home. I remember one boy looking really very ill. And yet every time we had a new positive test of Sars-Cov-2 it was never one of those students who I saw looking really ill. All those students who tested positive were absolutely fine. One boy told me he only had a slight cough one day and that was it (I don't go round asking them but this boy told me without me asking).

So the reality is that this virus is not as dissimilar to other viruses that have become become endemic as some people like to claim; it's just that at present we do not yet have sufficient levels of immunity to keep the levels under control which we do for other seasonal respiratory viruses. But the capacity to develop immunity is really strong for this virus; vastly more so than 'flu.

I get the impression there was less illness than usual this Autumn in schools but those who were not feeling well were much more likely to stay at home than normal.

So I should throw away the years of study I did for my primary education career because my immune system is artificially shot with drugs? Think about what you’re saying before you say it, please. You know as well as I do that schools are a breeding ground for impetigo and coughs and colds and chickenpox - but relatively safe as an adult keeping our distance from the children, having a better understanding of hygiene etc. Covid is completely different to the usual Petri dish that is a school and you know it.

I am not saying anyone ''should" or shouldn't do anything, but if someone is telling me they have a requirement to avoid viruses and are asking for advice (which is how I interpreted what the other poster was saying), there are many professions that they could be advised to avoid to a much greater extent; being a dental nurse is a good example.

If someone is happy with the associated risks then they take their choice when choosing any career.

Yes during a pandemic there is of course an increased risk compared to normal; it's a novel virus (though not completely novel) and we do not yet have much immunity to it (but not no immunity, as some falsely claim).

Therefore, someone who has a compromised immune system is likely to be required to work from home during this period. I know of some school staff who this applies to.

 

[Richard Scott]

What about the people who work at the school?

Let's be honest they're roughly same age as parents or younger. There may be some slightly older. Can't keep finding excuses. Currently anyone who is vulnerable shouldn't be working in a school so that's covered too. Need to start getting on with life rather than finding reasons to ruin everyone else's.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 7 Jan 2021 ==

Reports in the TES stating that secondary teachers in Leeds are 333% more likely to become diagnosed with COVID than anyone else. We also saw a sharp uptick in covid cases (symptomatic and asymptomatic) in primary and secondary-aged pupils in the final week of the term.

So we're talking about one place? Need to look countywide before quoting statistics like that. Sure there's plenty of pockets of high and low transmission. What's the average across the country? Poor use of statistics by TES to try and make a point, thought they were better than that? Shame.

 

[DustyBin]

I’ve just found this (whilst looking for something else) which is quite interesting. The actual chart is in the link:

Chart of the week: Home deaths account for as many excess deaths since start of the pandemic as deaths in care homes

Each week we present analysis of data in chart form to illustrate some key issues and invite discussion. This week Sarah Scobie looks at the continued high numbers of people dying at home, even as hospital deaths return to close-to-average levels, and discusses what reasons might lie behind the...

www.nuffieldtrust.org.uk

While deaths in hospitals and care homes were the focus of attention during the peak of the Covid-19 pandemic, by the beginning of June deaths in these settings had returned to, or fallen below, the average compared with the previous five years.

In contrast, there have continued to be 'excess' deaths at home, with on average 750 excess deaths a week in this setting over the last three months.

The lower-than-usual number of hospital deaths during the last three months suggests that patients are dying at home who might previously have been admitted to hospital. This could reflect patient and family choice – for example, in response to hospital visiting restrictions. More worryingly, people may feel deterred from seeking medical help because of fear of catching Covid-19 in hospital. Only 2% of deaths at home in 2020 have been recorded as Covid-19 related, but whether some of these deaths could have been avoided if people had received care in hospital is unknown.

Additionally, some deaths may be occurring at home among people who might previously have been admitted to a care home. Although data is patchy, there are reports that care home occupancy is lower than usual and that people are avoiding care home admissions due to concerns about Covid-19 risks. Over the last three months there have been around 100 fewer deaths in care homes than would be expected from the average.

Whatever the reasons for the greater number of deaths at home, a third more people are now dying at home than prior to the pandemic. Although it is widely thought that many people prefer to die at home, this shift presents a significant challenge for community health and care services to deliver high quality care for patients, and to support families at the end of life.

For me at least, this raises the question of whether the collateral damage caused by severe restrictions outweighs the benefits. By collateral damage I mean lives lost, there are of course other factors to consider (economic, societal, mental health etc.). If I’m reading the chart (along with the full year ONS figures which are now available), and doing the maths correctly, last year there were nearly 40k excess deaths at home, not due to Covid-19? If that is the case, surely there needs to be a conversation about it?

 

[kristiang85]

I’ve just found this (whilst looking for something else) which is quite interesting. The actual chart is in the link:

Chart of the week: Home deaths account for as many excess deaths since start of the pandemic as deaths in care homes

Each week we present analysis of data in chart form to illustrate some key issues and invite discussion. This week Sarah Scobie looks at the continued high numbers of people dying at home, even as hospital deaths return to close-to-average levels, and discusses what reasons might lie behind the...

www.nuffieldtrust.org.uk

For me at least, this raises the question of whether the collateral damage caused by severe restrictions outweighs the benefits. By collateral damage I mean lives lost, there are of course other factors to consider (economic, societal, mental health etc.). If I’m reading the chart (along with the full year ONS figures which are now available), and doing the maths correctly, last year there were nearly 40k excess deaths at home, not due to Covid-19? If that is the case, surely there needs to be a conversation about it?

Yes, this has been the case all year - and home deaths are still consistently significantly above average since this chart was made.

You would assume that people with COVID aren't dying at home (as they would go to hospital), so this will be from other casues.

Absolutely there needs to be a conversation.

 

[3141]

Let's be honest they're roughly same age as parents or younger. There may be some slightly older. Can't keep finding excuses. Currently anyone who is vulnerable shouldn't be working in a school so that's covered too. Need to start getting on with life rather than finding reasons to ruin everyone else's.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 7 Jan 2021 ==

The average age of teachers in primary schools is likely to be lower than those in secondary schools. You may know a school where it's true that the teachers are roughly same age as parents or younger. I don't know what age you assume parents to be. In my granddaughter's primary school at least four of sixteen teachers are 50+.

"Can't keep finding excuses..." You're right, you can't.

 

[Richard Scott]

The average age of teachers in primary schools is likely to be lower than those in secondary schools. You may know a school where it's true that the teachers are roughly same age as parents or younger. I don't know what age you assume parents to be. In my granddaughter's primary school at least four of sixteen teachers are 50+.

"Can't keep finding excuses..." You're right, you can't.

Being 50+ doesn't pose that much of a greater risk. Any teacher who is on vulnerable list is not required to be in work. Afraid this situation is getting out of control, children as missing out on education, their wellbeing is being compromised for a very small risk. Just going to work is taking a risk, you may die in a car accident on the way. The excuses need to stop and schools need to be open.

 

[3141]

Being 50+ doesn't pose that much of a greater risk. Any teacher who is on vulnerable list is not required to be in work. Afraid this situation is getting out of control, children as missing out on education, their wellbeing is being compromised for a very small risk. Just going to work is taking a risk, you may die in a car accident on the way. The excuses need to stop and schools need to be open.

Come off it, dying in a car accident on the way to work isn't in any way comparable to the effects of Covid, and nobody spreads car accidents.

 

[Richard Scott]

Come off it, dying in a car accident on the way to work isn't in any way comparable to the effects of Covid, and nobody spreads car accidents.

For goodness sake, the chance of it causing someone of teaching age any effect is miniscule. Need to get a sense of proportion here, I'm afraid. Yes, there is long covid but very few people get it, yes there is a risk of dying but for that age group it is less than dying in a car accident so afraid it is a sensible comparison. Life has risks, staying in bed hiding under the blankets is a risk.

 

[3141]

For goodness sake, the chance of it causing someone of teaching age any effect is miniscule. Need to get a sense of proportion here, I'm afraid. Yes, there is long covid but very few people get it, yes there is a risk of dying but for that age group it is less than dying in a car accident so afraid it is a sensible comparison. Life has risks, staying in bed hiding under the blankets is a risk.

You're out of touch. "Teaching age" is anything from about 22 to retirement age, while some stay in the profession later than that. The sense of proportion that you need to get is that the situation isn't as cut and dried as you'd like it to be.

 

[farleigh]

Errr, no such thing was proven, other than the fact that your local school has an invisible shield that repels any form of virus.

You're out of touch. "Teaching age" is anything from about 22 to retirement age, while some stay in the profession later than that. The sense of proportion that you need to get is that the situation isn't as cut and dried as you'd like it to be.

The average teacher age in my school is 31

 

[sjpowermac]

The average teacher age in my school is 31

The poster I was replying to has claimed, on the basis of their experience of one school, that schools were not spreading the virus. I’ve repeatedly pointed out that this isn’t a scientific way of checking the role of schools in the pandemic. Do you think that experience in one school should be extrapolated to the whole of the UK?

For the avoidance of doubt, I’ve no take on how likely a teacher is to die of the virus, though I believe there is some evidence that schools have played an important role in spreading the virus.

I’ve also been consistent in saying, from about May onwards that I fully support schools being open.

I’ve also said that whilst doing my job I don’t fear the virus. I was attacked for this stance and even after I clarified that I follow all the rules, I notice that the @theironroad , hasn’t offered an apology for saying I’m a danger to transport workers.

In sum, I’m really not sure why you referred to me in your post about the average age of teachers in your school.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 8 Jan 2021 ==

So we're talking about one place?

Oh the irony!

 

[UP13]

Non-scientifically, I'd say the average age of teachers in all the schools I've taught is about 35. Average age of support staff probably 45.

People discussing age of teachers, forget support staff and a lot are of them are in 40s, 50s and it's really not uncommon to have people in their 60s as TAs.

Also it's not unusual to have that one teacher in their 60s who is on the verge of retirement.

 

[birchesgreen]

Yes my next door neighbour is in her early 70s and only stopped being a TA last year (probably because of lockdown).

 

[TheBeard]

Homicide rate up 58% in US. That's 9000 ish souls lost bet this is a trouble worldwide.
Suicide hard to find, could be part of the none covid deaths, but maths models suggest a rise betwenen 1 and 145%
Late cancer diagnoses and so on
Lockdown is a blunt sledgehammer with a lot of down sides, not least economic woe, hardship, job losses, now homicide- suicide figures are being masked.
After the vulnerable are vaccinated people will need to accept risk, and further lockdowns should be opposed as detrimental to all our health.
Not everyone will live forever, of this or flu.
SAGE and their main guy on WHO, have directly damaged society, and used the BBC to instigate fear which will take many a long time to recover from. They should be accountable for failing to mitigate these effects. They wanted to Lockdown with Swine flu- and will with every onther milder covid every winter
Once vaccination, there will always be some unlucky who get ill, like with flu and meningitis, and we can hope it is a lot less, mercifully.
But life is for living, and risk is a part of it.

 

[Domh245]

But life is for living, and risk is a part of it.

I must have missed that memo. I thought life was for slavishly avoiding death at all costs

 

[Richard Scott]

You're out of touch. "Teaching age" is anything from about 22 to retirement age, while some stay in the profession later than that. The sense of proportion that you need to get is that the situation isn't as cut and dried as you'd like it to be.

Really, I've been in the profession for 23 years so think I know a little about it.

 

[35B]

I must have missed that memo. I thought life was for slavishly avoiding death at all costs

I find my appetite for risk reduces in inverse proportion to my ability to manage that risk.

 

[Richard Scott]

Oh the irony!

Not really, always said it was based on one area. Since I've spoken to people from other areas and got similar stories.

 

[brad465]

The latest round of ONS infection survey data is out, and it seems to suggest that areas where the new variant was found to be rapidly spreading initially have already peaked:

Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Survey, UK - Office for National Statistics

Estimates for England, Wales, Northern Ireland and Scotland.

www.ons.gov.uk

London especially appears to have turned a corner markedly, while the other prone areas of the South East and East appear to be peaking.

 

[kristiang85]

We are going for a drive 20 minutes down the road this weekend to do a nice long walk. I presume that is 'local' enough, but last weekend there were so many people in our local open spaces that surely getting out into the countryside a bit further makes more sense to distance?

Luckily I think Hampshire police are more sensible than their counterparts elsewhere when it comes to common sense.

 

[Domh245]

London especially appears to have turned a corner markedly, while the other prone areas of the South East and East appear to be peaking.

I dare say that's mostly down to Tier 4 and school holidays as much as anything, but it's good to see it start to dip

 

[yorkie]

I dare say that's mostly down to Tier 4 and school holidays as much as anything, but it's good to see it start to dip

But weren't we told T4 was not enough to stop the new variant spreading; do we now think that may prove to be inaccurate? I certainly hope so...

As for the Christmas holidays a useful comparator is that, in the US pro-restriction authoritarians claimed that Thanksgiving caused a spike in infections, but the reality was that:

However, looking at the combined data for the whole of the US, there's no clear indication that infection rates accelerated following the Thanksgiving holiday.

What you can see from the graph is that because of reporting delays around the holiday period, there was a flattening of the curve followed by a catch-up period. But overall, cases rose by about 20% in the two weeks following Thanksgiving - about the same increase as over the two weeks prior to 26 November.

(source)

When you have a period where many people do not go to work, university etc, this will reduce transmission which will at least partly compensate for an increase in infections due to more mixing in social interactions.

But the people who are against these social interactions taking place will not want to admit that, as it does not suit the authoritarian agenda.

 

[bramling]

But weren't we told T4 was not enough to stop the new variant spreading; do we think that may prove to be inaccurate?

It’s certainly interesting to see quite a dip on yesterday’s figures. One presumes however some of the recent figures may be a little all over the place due to Christmas. But it’s certainly a good sign.

 

[yorkie]

We are going for a drive 20 minutes down the road this weekend to do a nice long walk. I presume that is 'local' enough, but last weekend there were so many people in our local open spaces that surely getting out into the countryside a bit further makes more sense to distance?

Authoritarians don't do common sense. What you say is correct, but yet you would still incur the wrath of the authoritarians. My advice would be to do what actually makes sense. The authoritarians will just have to lump it.