New lockdown in England, including school closures, announced by Johnson, 4/1/21

[kristiang85]

It'll almost certainly just be holiday period disruption. The reports come out on about a 2 week delay to the week they cover - the subsequent weeks (11th and 18th) came out on Christmas day and New Years respectively so it's perhaps not surprising that they aren't complete. I'm expecting normal service to resume this week/week after as they work through it all

Yeah good point, let's see in a couple of weeks where it is at.

 

[hwl]

It'll almost certainly just be holiday period disruption. The reports come out on about a 2 week delay to the week they cover - the subsequent weeks (11th and 18th) came out on Christmas day and New Years respectively so it's perhaps not surprising that they aren't complete. I'm expecting normal service to resume this week/week after as they work through it all

They advised in advance that there would be some longer gaps and delays for reports covering the Xmas/NY period partly to improve data quality a bit.

 

[WelshBluebird]

Here East in the Olympic Park was, ahem, rather popular for "takeaway" beers during the first two lockdowns. Same with The Crabtree round the back of Craven Cottage (who also managed to have their toilets open for punters as well). Sure there were shed loads more doing the same!

Very interesting, especially the almost perfect correlation seen in the "second wave".

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 6 Jan 2021 ==



To be fair, there was a bit of an issue especially in the latter stages of the last lockdown where people were buying alcohol and simply gathering on the streets or in other nearby suitable places. Borough High Street was at one point littered with cans and smashed bottles.

I'm not sure this is so likely at this time of year though.

The Watermans Arms in Barnes was doing strong business in early November with the pavements rammed... until they served trading standards.

Having already got themselves in trouble before:

Barnes pub has limits placed on outside drinking after crowds pack the riverside

Residents said it was as busy as the Boat Race every day it was sunny

www.mylondon.news

Same story in Bristol city centre on the harbourside too - so I can certainly understand why a catch all rule about it has been put in place.
Whilst I understand the points about businesses and customers who have behaved sensibly, it is much simplier to have a blanket policy than required local licensing officials and police deal with such issues. Though I am still sad - especially as it means I won't be able to get local beer or lovely cocktails from the bar around the corner from me!

 

[Solent&Wessex]

Same story in Bristol city centre on the harbourside too - so I can certainly understand why a catch all rule about it has been put in place.
Whilst I understand the points about businesses and customers who have behaved sensibly, it is much simplier to have a blanket policy than required local licensing officials and police deal with such issues. Though I am still sad - especially as it means I won't be able to get local beer or lovely cocktails from the bar around the corner from me!

The same logic applies to why pubs had to close in the first place.

It is probably the case that the pictures on TV of large groups of people all mingling in city centres, hugging, and wandering around drunk side by side, would be responsible for a good bit of virus spreading. The scenes of these large groups and the scenes inside and outside busy venues would make some think that all pubs were super spreaders.

So the pubs and restaurants were closed.

But of course this is a catch all policy which means that the small local pubs in the villages which never get anywhere near as busy and don't have marauding gangs of drunks queuing outside the doors or propping each other in the streets also get closed, as do small local restaurants which may only have a handful of tables. In reality these smaller local venues out away from city and town centres would never be a problem - many visitors are locals and regulars and perhaps of a more responsible disposition, or just walkers having a quick pint by the fire on the way home after coming down off the moors.

Very difficult, nigh on impossible, to make rules which allow some venues to open and some to close.

 

[RuralRambler]

But of course this is a catch all policy which means that the small local pubs in the villages which never get anywhere near as busy and don't have marauding gangs of drunks queuing outside the doors or propping each other in the streets also get closed

Back mid March when Boris was telling people to social distance and there was the threat of closing pubs, our village pub was heaving with loads of people having "one last night out" before the potential closure, so bad that they were blocking half the road outside drinking. The police had to come and tell the landlord to close it. That was our usually quiet village pub that had never seen anything like that kind of number of customers before.

 

[35B]

The same logic applies to why pubs had to close in the first place.

It is probably the case that the pictures on TV of large groups of people all mingling in city centres, hugging, and wandering around drunk side by side, would be responsible for a good bit of virus spreading. The scenes of these large groups and the scenes inside and outside busy venues would make some think that all pubs were super spreaders.

So the pubs and restaurants were closed.

But of course this is a catch all policy which means that the small local pubs in the villages which never get anywhere near as busy and don't have marauding gangs of drunks queuing outside the doors or propping each other in the streets also get closed, as do small local restaurants which may only have a handful of tables. In reality these smaller local venues out away from city and town centres would never be a problem - many visitors are locals and regulars and perhaps of a more responsible disposition, or just walkers having a quick pint by the fire on the way home after coming down off the moors.

Very difficult, nigh on impossible, to make rules which allow some venues to open and some to close.

And if what you are trying to do in a lockdown is to prevent people mixing? I think we’re forgetting the stated purpose of the current restrictions, where that kind of mixing is precisely what the policy is intended to avoid.

 

[Richard Scott]

And if what you are trying to do in a lockdown is to prevent people mixing? I think we’re forgetting the stated purpose of the current restrictions, where that kind of mixing is precisely what the policy is intended to avoid.

Well it obviously hasn't worked very well as pubs been closed for a while in many parts and number of infections still on the rise.

 

[35B]

Well it obviously hasn't worked very well as pubs been closed for a while in many parts and number of infections still on the rise.

With respect, that is a different question. And if the science is moving towards a view that schools are important for the spread despite not having many cases, I’d be equally interested to see the role in the transmission chain of other places where people mix for sustained periods.

 

[Ianno87]

With respect, that is a different question. And if the science is moving towards a view that schools are important for the spread despite not having many cases, I’d be equally interested to see the role in the transmission chain of other places where people mix for sustained periods.

There was an obvious dip in cases in November lockdown, even with schools remaining open throughout.

 

[35B]

There was an obvious dip in cases in November lockdown, even with schools remaining open throughout.

Indeed. Which begs a variety of questions about whether the dip could have been deeper had other things been done, and our understanding of the mechanisms of transmission.

 

[Wychwood93]

Indeed. Which begs a variety of questions about whether the dip could have been deeper had other things been done, and our understanding of the mechanisms of transmission.

There was a fall in cases after the 16th November - having risen by ~3000 from the start of the lockdown - the fall lasted until the 5th December and the trend became upward again. My figures based on the 7 day rolling averages.

 

[Carlisle]

With respect, that is a different question.

How’s it a different question?, if a large proportion of the UK population who all endured the lengthy March lockdown, have now been banned from visiting their local pubs, clubs, bars & restaurants etc for an additional 2- 3 months already & for an indefinite future period, it’d be good to know if the science behind all that is actually extremely flimsy at best .

 

[3141]

How’s it a different question?, if a large proportion of the UK population who all endured the lengthy March lockdown, have now been banned from visiting their local pubs, clubs, bars & restaurants etc for an additional 2- 3 months already & for an indefinite future period, it’d be good to know if the science behind all this is actually extremely flimsy at best .

An important factor in addressing that question is people. Did they follow the rules or not? If everyone did, and still infections went up, you might conclude that the policy was not an effective way of achieving its objective. If a lot of people didn't follow the rules, in ways described in some of the posts further up this page, the answer may be that the policy was sound but the people weren't.

 

[Richard Scott]

With respect, that is a different question. And if the science is moving towards a view that schools are important for the spread despite not having many cases, I’d be equally interested to see the role in the transmission chain of other places where people mix for sustained periods.

Been through the schools discussion, from my experience there is limited transmission in schools and, to be honest, we really shouldn't be too bothered if there was. Not really going to be an issue for a teenager and, realistically, nor for their parents. Before we start going on about older members of the family, that us up to them whether they want to see grandchildren or not.

 

[3141]

Been through the schools discussion, from my experience there is limited transmission in schools and, to be honest, we really shouldn't be too bothered if there was. Not really going to be an issue for a teenager and, realistically, nor for their parents. Before we start going on about older members of the family, that us up to them whether they want to see grandchildren or not.

What about the people who work at the school?

 

[yorksrob]

An important factor in addressing that question is people. Did they follow the rules or not? If everyone did, and still infections went up, you might conclude that the policy was not an effective way of achieving its objective. If a lot of people didn't follow the rules, in ways described in some of the posts further up this page, the answer may be that the policy was sound but the people weren't.

It's also about numbers.

If the majority of infections were taking place in settings where mixing was permitted, such as homes, care homes, work, shops, university, schools etc, tinkering with the take out beer in pubs is not going to achieve the objective, regardless of people following the rules.

 

[farleigh]

What about the people who work at the school?

Are there any stats that show teachers have been affected to a greater degree?

 

[initiation]

An important factor in addressing that question is people. Did they follow the rules or not? If everyone did, and still infections went up, you might conclude that the policy was not an effective way of achieving its objective. If a lot of people didn't follow the rules, in ways described in some of the posts further up this page, the answer may be that the policy was sound but the people weren't.

That assumes the 'rules' actually reduce infections (e.g. 10pm curfee).

But assuming they do if people are not following the rules then why are the likes of influenza and norovirus cases through the floor? Or does covid-19 need a different type of social distancing to influenza or hand-washing to norovirus?

Secondly, as per the poster above, many places remain open. The number of positive test results let alone hospitalisations for those drinking in the street is going to pale in significance to those nosocomial or school derived cases.

Thirdly, if your policy relies on absolute 100% compliance and any less renders it utterly useless then the policy is flawed.

 

[RomeoCharlie71]

What about the people who work at the school?

There is evidence to suggest that primary school aged children do not transmit the virus as easily, and secondary-school teachers should be 2m from pupils at all times. It's up to them if they are not.

 

[Bikeman78]

Is that 10% of people who have serious symptoms though? Or those hospitalised? I really can’t believe it’s 10% of people infected, that just isn’t plausible....

Feeling rubbish after being ill is nothing new. I once caught a stomach bug. I spent the best part of 36 hours being sick. I had no idea my stomach could hold so much liquid but even after there was nothing left to come out it kept trying. It felt like the life was draining out of me. After the vomiting stopped, it took over a week for my appetite to come back properly.

 

[JamesT]

Are there any stats that show teachers have been affected to a greater degree?

I’ve seen an excerpt from a SAGE report which stated COVID prevalence amongst teachers is no higher than amongst other key workers.
However there are also recent news reports using figures from NASUWT for particular areas where the rates of infection amongst teachers is several times the local population.

 

[farleigh]

I’ve seen an excerpt from a SAGE report which stated COVID prevalence amongst teachers is no higher than amongst other key workers.
However there are also recent news reports using figures from NASUWT for particular areas where the rates of infection amongst teachers is several times the local population.

Sage or NASUWT?


AAAAAaaaaargh

 

[WelshBluebird]

But assuming they do if people are not following the rules then why are the likes of influenza and norovirus cases through the floor? Or does covid-19 need a different type of social distancing to influenza or hand-washing to norovirus?

In terms of flu at least, COVID is more easily transmitted than flu so the various measures thay have been in place would have been even more effective for flu. Plus uptake of the flu jab this winter has been higher than previous years.

 

[3141]

Are there any stats that show teachers have been affected to a greater degree?

That's not the point I was making. In post #404 Richard Scott said dismissively:

"Been through the schools discussion, from my experience there is limited transmission in schools and, to be honest, we really shouldn't be too bothered if there was. Not really going to be an issue for a teenager and, realistically, nor for their parents. Before we start going on about older members of the family, that us up to them whether they want to see grandchildren or not."

He was ignoring the people who work in schools, some of whom will be older and more likely to experience more serious symptom if they get the virus.

There is evidence to suggest that primary school aged children do not transmit the virus as easily, and secondary-school teachers should be 2m from pupils at all times. It's up to them if they are not.

How do you suppose they manage that? Classroom between 50 and 54 sq. m. 30 pupils plus teacher. Corridors. It isn't simply "up to them".

 

[RomeoCharlie71]

How do you suppose they manage that? Classroom between 50 and 54 sq. m. 30 pupils plus teacher. Corridors. It isn't simply "up to them".

The teacher teaches at the front of the class, the pupils are then sat in rows. I know classrooms in two of my local secondary schools have "safe zones" i.e. tape on the floor where the teacher is supposed to stand/sit and the kids aren't.

Teachers should avoid corridors at class changeover times... just like they normally did (or at least did when I was at school) because they are chaos covid or not!

 

[3141]

It's also about numbers.

If the majority of infections were taking place in settings where mixing was permitted, such as homes, care homes, work, shops, university, schools etc, tinkering with the take out beer in pubs is not going to achieve the objective, regardless of people following the rules.

I thought we were discussing whether closing pubs was effective in reducing the spread of infections, and not what you choose to call "tinkering" with take-out beer.

 

[sjpowermac]

Been through the schools discussion, from my experience there is limited transmission in schools and, to be honest, we really shouldn't be too bothered if there was. Not really going to be an issue for a teenager and, realistically, nor for their parents. Before we start going on about older members of the family, that us up to them whether they want to see grandchildren or not.

Errr, no such thing was proven, other than the fact that your local school has an invisible shield that repels any form of virus.

 

[farleigh]

I thought we were discussing whether closing pubs was effective in reducing the spread of infections, and not what you choose to call "tinkering" with take-out beer.

Pubs have been closed for some time.

Have infections gone down?

 

[bramling]

I’ve seen an excerpt from a SAGE report which stated COVID prevalence amongst teachers is no higher than amongst other key workers.
However there are also recent news reports using figures from NASUWT for particular areas where the rates of infection amongst teachers is several times the local population.

That’s chalk and cheese though, as key workers would be expected to be higher than someone who has walled themselves up indoors for months on end (which some people have, my neighbour has barely left the house).

 

[yorkie]

What about the people who work at the school?

You are always going to get exposed to viruses when working at a school. If you have a compromised immune system and/or don't keep yourself healthy and fit, don't work in a school would be my advice. I must get exposed to many viruses and yet I don't get ill because I have built up immunity. I would be very surprised if I don't have immunity to one of the endemic Cornaviruses which confers good immunity against Sars-Cov-2. Unfortunately the current restrictions may make me ill as they affect my mental health, and the workload placed on me could also affect my stress levels. In summary, I am at increased risk due to the actions taken to limit the spread of the virus, NOT due to the circulation of the virus. Others may differ, but that's the situation with me.

Are there any stats that show teachers have been affected to a greater degree?

No

That's not the point I was making. In post #404 Richard Scott said dismissively:

"Been through the schools discussion, from my experience there is limited transmission in schools and, to be honest, we really shouldn't be too bothered if there was. Not really going to be an issue for a teenager and, realistically, nor for their parents. Before we start going on about older members of the family, that us up to them whether they want to see grandchildren or not."

What a good post you quoted.

He was ignoring the people who work in schools, some of whom will be older and more likely to experience more serious symptom if they get the virus

The reality is most school staff are relatively young, at least in my experience. I am aware of some staff who were deemed at increased risk and arranged to work from home.