Welsh Assembly Government still planning Cambrian hourly for 2011

[Gareth Marston]

Ieuan Wyn Jones Deputy Minister for the Economy and Transport
02 August 2010 in letter to Mick Bates AM (Montgomeryshire)

"My officials are working closely with ATW and NR to finalise the timetable options for meeting the National Transport Plan commitment to introduce an hourly daytime service between Aberystwyth and Shrewsbury by 2011".

"I will be in a position to confirm the timescale for starting the new hourly service once the ERTMS signaling system has been commissioned and the timetable has been agreed."

1. Anyone party to the timetable discussions? Much skepticism in shire as no one has seen draft timetable yet.
2. When will ERTMS be commissioned on Cambrian?

[/LIST]

 

[The Planner]

It will be comissioned when its ready. As for the timetable Im not sure what everyone is getting excited about to be honest, you'll just get extra trains in the opposite hours, nothing dramatic. You wont see it this side of 2011.

 

[Gareth Marston]

It will be comissioned when its ready. As for the timetable Im not sure what everyone is getting excited about to be honest, you'll just get extra trains in the opposite hours, nothing dramatic. You wont see it this side of 2011.

Thats if ERTMS survives the impending budget cuts of course! I can see it now the top civil servants, Transport Ministers in big discussion with NR about how to get through the difficult times ahead. ERTMS? "when its ready" Er, lets cut that then. Inspirational confidence there Planner. Looks like your stuck with Absolute Block to plan around and the Cambrian with no signaling for reinstated loops and double track. NR's going to have to come up with something better than that for ERTMS to survive. Coucher and Cos bonuses have put NR in the front seat.

Something of a no brainer that additional Cambrian trains would be on opposite hours to those at present but of course main point of interest will be what they do at the Shrewsbury end. Whether they stand alone, combine with Holyhead to BHM INTL diagrams or even Crewe to Shrewsbury diagram.

 

[The Planner]

Its too far gone to not be finished and switched on, RETB will be switched off as the frequencies are needed elsewhere. If it isnt then you dont get an hourly, simple as. As for what happens at Shrewsbury, that isnt decided.

 

[fairlie]

When I catch the 1030 ex AYW, I'll believe that Cambrian hourly is here.

 

[TDK]

Its too far gone to not be finished and switched on, RETB will be switched off as the frequencies are needed elsewhere. If it isnt then you dont get an hourly, simple as. As for what happens at Shrewsbury, that isnt decided.

If they switch off the RETB what will they use "WHEN" ERTMS fails as it certainly will. This should have been sorted ages ago, I recon it will be shelved.

 

[Mystic Force]

If you need a cheap solution on a low use line how about track warrants?

 

[merlodlliw]

Its all uninteresting comment from the Minister, in effect hes not saying anything different from his letter to the A.M in the neighbouring County a year ago.
2011 is only 4.5 months away,in my opinion, not a chance of hourly trains,Ieuan Jones should have been playing hell with NR over ertms, instead of his obsession with travel from his own Constituency.

Up here we await a similar comment, ATW are working closely with NR etc

 

[The Planner]

If they switch off the RETB what will they use "WHEN" ERTMS fails as it certainly will. This should have been sorted ages ago, I recon it will be shelved.

It wont be shelved, too much of it is built and money spent. Are you really suggesting they will pull down the new control centre at Mach and rip all the electronics out the 158s ?? If it ever failed, there would be no reason why you couldnt apply the same methods as if signalling failed on a normal single line, ticket working etc...

Ive not known RETB to fail completely, but it still causes problems if a unit cant pick up a token for whatever reason.

 

[merlodlliw]

It wont be shelved, too much of it is built and money spent. Are you really suggesting they will pull down the new control centre at Mach and rip all the electronics out the 158s ?? If it ever failed, there would be no reason why you couldnt apply the same methods as if signalling failed on a normal single line, ticket working etc...

Ive not known RETB to fail completely, but it still causes problems if a unit cant pick up a token for whatever reason.

But Planner with all due respect, it can not carry on like this, Many £millions over budget,all timelines failed by years, no signing off date known, if NR was not a monopoly the contract would have been withdrawn,top management on this job have been a disaster in my opinion. Surely some of the problems should have been foreseen.

 

[Gareth Marston]

Possibility that rolling out nationally will be shelved and Cambrian will be left with ERTMS which in short term will be OK but longer term will be seen as imposing additional cost on Cambrian that some future cost cutting exercise will not look on favorably.As Planner says a lot of kit has been put in the Mid Wales ground, RETB was far simpler and more appropriate.

Of course if extra trains don't run then some questions will be asked why WAG spent £ millions reinstating capacity.

 

[merlodlliw]

Possibility that rolling out nationally will be shelved and Cambrian will be left with ERTMS which in short term will be OK but longer term will be seen as imposing additional cost on Cambrian that some future cost cutting exercise will not look on favorably.As Planner says a lot of kit has been put in the Mid Wales ground, RETB was far simpler and more appropriate.

Of course if extra trains don't run then some questions will be asked why WAG spent £ millions reinstating capacity.

No doubt if & when the questions are asked, those responsible will be gone along with the £millions thrown away, a very sad picture of poor project
Management and politicians with heads in the sand.

 

[Greenback]

The project does not seem to us laypeople to have delivered any benefit as yet. There has been disruption, it's well past the due introduction date, and it is beset by problems, judging from reports both inside and outisde the railway. Given that, surely there's bound to be a question mark over it's implementation on other routes?

The introduction of RETB in 1987 was very simple and quick compared to ERTMS! I do accept, though, that the project will be completed and extra trains will run eventually, it's just a matter of when. The Merthyr Tydfil additional services were also heavily delayed, I seem to recall...

As for Ieuan Wyn Jones, well, no way will the hourly timetable be introduced BY 2011! As merlod says, that's less than 5 months away!

 

[tbtc]

As for Ieuan Wyn Jones, well, no way will the hourly timetable be introduced BY 2011! As merlod says, that's less than 5 months away!

Presumably the December 2011 timetable change is when things will be different?

 

[Greenback]

We can but hope! But the Deputy First Minister apparently says by 2011 in his letter, which to me means before the start of 2011 rather than before the end of the year! We all know how politiicans love to play with words!

 

[merlodlliw]

We can but hope! But the Deputy First Minister apparently says by 2011 in his letter, which to me means before the start of 2011 rather than before the end of the year! We all know how politiicans love to play with words!

this what the All Wales National Transport plan says.

96. Introduce daytime hourly services between Aberystwyth and Shrewsbury,
by 2011.

to me this wording means January , to roll back to December 2011 only gives a couple of weeks of the year left, and it is winter with tourists gone.
and of course the next timetable in Dec 2010 will have 98% of it covering 2011 to May. Yes Politicians play with words, but this time its everybody's fault except their own.

 

[Greenback]

I can;t udnerstand the reluctance to just admit that things are behind schedule! I for one, would have more respect for the DFM if he just came out and said that due to unforseen problems the introduction of hourly services will not be able to happen until Dec 2012 at the earliest, instead of merely repeating what the plan says and what he has been saying for what seems like forever!

I don't see how the words 'by 2011' can really mean anything except the start of the year!

 

[The Planner]

Latest date being chucked about for Harlech to Pwllheli comissioning is September 1st. Two weeks away, bets being taken at your local rail forum now.

 

[Greenback]

Latest date being chucked about for Harlech to Pwllheli comissioning is September 1st. Two weeks away, bets being taken at your local rail forum now.

I'll have £10 on 1 September 2015!

 

[Gareth Marston]

from my inbox this evening:

unconfirmed rumours on ERTMS are September for Pwllhelli-Harlech, October for full system. (Power operation of points at 'ordinary loops' i.e. other than Dovey Jct, Talerddig and Welshpool; may follow later rather than at commisioning).

 

[Beveridges]

Latest date being chucked about for Harlech to Pwllheli comissioning is September 1st. Two weeks away, bets being taken at your local rail forum now.

It is now past that date. What is the current status of the Harleck to Pwllheli comissioning?

 

[merlodlliw]

It is now past that date. What is the current status of the Harleck to Pwllheli comissioning?

ill ask the Pakistan cricket team

 

[Gareth Marston]

ill ask the Pakistan cricket team

The 158's are the issue, ertms works fine in the 97's. Glare issue plus power issues - ATW drivers are not happy which isn't helping. Feb 11 is now being floated in the hope that a fix can be found by then.

NR could try and turn the Cambrian over 97's and ATW's stored MK2 fleet to show the ConDem Gov it works! The only flaw is I don't think there's enough 97's for the diagrams west of Salop plus people will not like changing at Salop for every train.

 

[The Planner]

97s have a crap braking curve and have a different speed profile to 158s under ERTMS, it wouldnt work.

 

[Gareth Marston]

97s have a crap braking curve and have a different speed profile to 158s under ERTMS, it wouldnt work.

Indeed no way current 2 hrly interval tt could be worked even if qty of them available them was increased.

In early 80's there was serious considerations given to turning over Cambrian to loco hauled due to DMU reliability, but number of trains per day would have been reduced. The weekday summer 86 tt had 2 loco hauled turns in each direction. The loco off the UP CCE picked up a short rake of MK1's and did a run to Aberystwyth and back from Shrewsbury.

 

[merlodlliw]

The 158's are the issue, ertms works fine in the 97's. Glare issue plus power issues - ATW drivers are not happy which isn't helping. Feb 11 is now being floated in the hope that a fix can be found by then.

NR could try and turn the Cambrian over 97's and ATW's stored MK2 fleet to show the ConDem Gov it works! The only flaw is I don't think there's enough 97's for the diagrams west of Salop plus people will not like changing at Salop for every train.

Another six months delay?, this ertms chaos is now beyond farce, the glare issue should have been foreseen

 

[shinkansen1966]

Wales has got no money. How they can afford to double the train service ?
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-11151909

 

[Greenback]

The link is a story speculating about the effect that spending cuts might have on Welsh local authorities. No doubt there will need to be budget savings in the WAG, but I'm not seeing any direct link there between forthcoming spending cuts by central government and the Cambrian Line.

 

[shinkansen1966]

I'd like to see the hourly Aberystwyth->Shrewsbury service go ahead. Took the line for the first back in July. The two car 158 was busy and some of the towns we passed through looked remote. Being a newcomer to the Cambran line, I was impressed with the line speeds. After Macynlleth, we seemed to cruise along at 75-90mph for long stretches....

 

[Greenback]

Yes, it's a nice run. The coast line is even more scenic, assuming you like estuaries, castles and cliffs! There are some lovely views of Portmeirion between Harlech and Penrhyn too!