My thoughts on Boris' strategy

[C J Snarzell]

He has a strategy?!

I'd call it more of a project.

CJ

 

[brad465]

Van Tam and Harries seem to have already been dumped, they seldom if ever appear now. Of course we know why Van Tam was removed from Johnson‘s Christmas card list (perhaps he’s been reinstated in the last month or so?!), and ISTR reading that Harries also criticised Cummings?

Van Tam disappeared for a while after the Cummings' saga yes, but he was very common at briefings in the aftermath of the first vaccine discovery, so for him to have been dumped again must have been recent (I'd like to think his extreme pessimism about post-vaccine life is a reason not to appear again).

 

[bramling]

It does seem that rather than being shrewd, with buffoonish persona to disarm his opponents, he is actually just a buffon.

That’s now abundantly clear.

 

[C J Snarzell]

Our the bunch of them - Van Tam is the most endearing - he reminds me of my previous (now retired) GP who was quite approachable but very frank with his patients.

Harries seems like she really cares about all this too and comes across as very transparent.

Whitty and Vallance are like yes men and too 'black & white' for my liking.

CJ

 

[DerekC]

In response to the OP, I agree that Boris has an objective which is to stay in power and somehow emulate Churchill, but his approach is always to make it up as he goes along and agree with whoever seems to have the most clout at the moment, whilst emitting public school flavoured waffle and trying to make jokes at the expense of opponents. It worked with the Conservative faithful and with the electorate in the context of Brexit but it absolutely isn't working with Covid. And it absolutely isn't in the mould of Churchill, either.

I suggest that those who think there is a conspiracy of government scientists to achieve some hidden agenda need to join the real world. I have worked with some and they were all straight down the middle honest guys who are trying to predict what is going to happen, advise the politicians as best they can and try not to contradict the boss in public. That's not to say that they are always right or that you should listen to any one scientist without consulting others, but generally they are doing their best! If they are worried and you aren't, perhaps you haven't fully understood the problem.

 

[DustyBin]

In response to the OP, I agree that Boris has an objective which is to stay in power and somehow emulate Churchill, but his approach is always to make it up as he goes along and agree with whoever seems to have the most clout at the moment, whilst emitting public school flavoured waffle and trying to make jokes at the expense of opponents. It worked with the Conservative faithful and with the electorate in the context of Brexit but it absolutely isn't working with Covid. And it absolutely isn't in the mould of Churchill, either.

I suggest that those who think there is a conspiracy of government scientists to achieve some hidden agenda need to join the real world. I have worked with some and they were all straight down the middle honest guys who are trying to predict what is going to happen, advise the politicians as best they can and try not to contradict the boss in public. That's not to say that they are always right or that you should listen to any one scientist without consulting others, but generally they are doing their best! If they are worried and you aren't, perhaps you haven't fully understood the problem.

I agree with your first paragraph. Boris is a deluded fantasist if he thinks he will go down in history as a great leader.

I'd really like to believe your second paragraph is true. I struggle though with the likes of Ferguson who gets his modelling catastrophically wrong, repeatedly. If he's doing his best it isn't good enough. That may sound harsh but we simply can't afford the kind of errors he makes. Then you have the likes of Susan Michie, a fully paid up member of the Communist Party of Britain. I'm not suggesting that in itself proves anything, but given the mess we've created, on the back of SAGE advice, I for one can fully understand why people question whether there may be just a little ideology behind some of that advice. As for your final sentence, I'd suggest it's they that don't understand the problem!

 

[bramling]

Why?

Whenever anyone questions their preferred strategy they are the ones that arrange for the production of suitably terrifying material to ensure the politicians obey them.

I do think it was a bit sneaky the way Vallance made a very brief but calculated few words in yesterday’s briefing about the tightening of restrictions, whereas Boris kept well clear of the subject.

I agree with your first paragraph. Boris is a deluded fantasist if he thinks he will go down in history as a great leader.

I'd really like to believe your second paragraph is true. I struggle though with the likes of Ferguson who gets his modelling catastrophically wrong, repeatedly. If he's doing his best it isn't good enough. That may sound harsh but we simply can't afford the kind of errors he makes. Then you have the likes of Susan Michie, a fully paid up member of the Communist Party of Britain. I'm not suggesting that in itself proves anything, but given the mess we've created, on the back of SAGE advice, I for one can fully understand why people question whether there may be just a little ideology behind some of that advice. As for your final sentence, I'd suggest it's they that don't understand the problem!

I think Boris probably gave up hope of going down as a great leader back in the spring. It’s now about damage limitation I think, he doesn’t want to go down as the leader who killed 100,000 British people, or whatever.

 

[philosopher]

I agree with your first paragraph. Boris is a deluded fantasist if he thinks he will go down in history as a great leader.

I'd really like to believe your second paragraph is true. I struggle though with the likes of Ferguson who gets his modelling catastrophically wrong, repeatedly. If he's doing his best it isn't good enough. That may sound harsh but we simply can't afford the kind of errors he makes. Then you have the likes of Susan Michie, a fully paid up member of the Communist Party of Britain. I'm not suggesting that in itself proves anything, but given the mess we've created, on the back of SAGE advice, I for one can fully understand why people question whether there may be just a little ideology behind some of that advice. As for your final sentence, I'd suggest it's they that don't understand the problem!

I don’t think the scientific advisors have a hidden agenda. What I think instead is that they were somewhat expecting the government only to partly follow their advice. Hence they would recommend very strict measures in the expectation that the government would dilute their suggested measures. For example they might advise a full national lockdown is required but they would instead expect the government to implement a partial lockdown (eg close hospitality but keep all shops open).

Since the end of October however the government seems to have largely followed the scientific advisors fully, which is probably not what they were expecting. Hence the November lockdown, stricter tiers and the tier 4.

 

[C J Snarzell]

I do think it was a bit sneaky the way Vallance made a very brief but calculated few words in yesterday’s briefing about the tightening of restrictions, whereas Boris kept well clear of the subject.


I think Boris probably gave up hope of going down as a great leader back in the spring. It’s now about damage limitation I think, he doesn’t want to go down as the leader who killed 100,000 British people, or whatever.

BJ will be one of those people that goes off the radar completely once he leaves Number 10. Very unlikely he will give many interviews post being PM because he will just get scrutinised by the press.

CJ

 

[DB]

BJ will be one of those people that goes off the radar completely once he leaves Number 10. Very unlikely he will give many interviews post being PM because he will just get scrutinised by the press.

CJ

He might well be one of those like Blair and Cameron too, who thinks that becoming a backbencher is beneath him so stands down immediately via the stupidly arcane procedure that exists for doing that.

 

[bramling]

He might well be one of those like Blair and Cameron too, who thinks that becoming a backbencher is beneath him so stands down immediately via the stupidly arcane procedure that exists for doing that.

I’d lay money on it. He will be gone, though I bet he’ll still have the nerve to keep on writing articles slagging people off or upsetting whole cities.

 

[UP13]

I read somewhere a few months ago that Boris was apparently tiring of the 'low' salary of being Prime Minister and was desperate to quit shortly after Brexit so he could make some 'real money' doing the lucrative after dinner speech circuit.

I've heard people say that it's not about aspiring to be prime minister but about being a former prime minister, as you can do speeches and books.

 

[DB]

I read somewhere a few months ago that Boris was apparently tiring of the 'low' salary of being Prime Minister and was desperate to quit shortly after Brexit so he could make some 'real money' doing the lucrative after dinner speech circuit.

I've heard people say that it's not about aspiring to be prime minister but about being a former prime minister, as you can do speeches and books.

He might find himself lesd in demand than previous PMs!

 

[NorthOxonian]

He might well be one of those like Blair and Cameron too, who thinks that becoming a backbencher is beneath him so stands down immediately via the stupidly arcane procedure that exists for doing that.

But unlike Blair or Cameron, his constituency is rather marginal*, so he might not wish to resign since this will quite probably result in an extra Labour MP for the rest of the parliamentary term. Depending on his successor, he may also have a desire to be petty and act as a thorn in their side, which he could definitely do from the back benches.

* Well Blair's is obviously marginal now, but Labour looked pretty impenetrable there when he left office.

 

[bramling]

I read somewhere a few months ago that Boris was apparently tiring of the 'low' salary of being Prime Minister and was desperate to quit shortly after Brexit so he could make some 'real money' doing the lucrative after dinner speech circuit.

I've heard people say that it's not about aspiring to be prime minister but about being a former prime minister, as you can do speeches and books.

One would think that you still have to make at least a tolerable success of being PM. I suppose there’s a market in having a speech from the worst PM in living memory, or one who managed to destroy Britain in the space of a year?!

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 22 Dec 2020 ==

He might find himself lesd in demand than previous PMs!

To be honest if we get to the point where Covid is essentially over by the time BJ goes, I’m not sure there will be that much of a market for paying a fortune to be reminded of it all by the clown who all through it made us want to punch our television screens.

 

[wireforever]

Wonder if the Queen watches the news the last few press briefings have been very poor Boris just waffling away and sending a confusing message to the nation the problems with the lorries stuck on the M20 and the truckers having no facilities makes us look like a third world country run by a third rate govt .Perhaps the Queen as head of state can summon Boris to the Palace and relieve him of command and appoint her own nominated person to run the country by suspending parliament

 

[greyman42]

But unlike Blair or Cameron, his constituency is rather marginal*, so he might not wish to resign since this will quite probably result in an extra Labour MP for the rest of the parliamentary term.

Once he decides to go he will not care less about the Conservative party so giving another seat to Labour will not bother him in the slightest.

 

[bramling]

Wonder if the Queen watches the news the last few press briefings have been very poor Boris just waffling away and sending a confusing message to the nation the problems with the lorries stuck on the M20 and the truckers having no facilities makes us look like a third world country run by a third rate govt .Perhaps the Queen as head of state can summon Boris to the Palace and relieve him of command and appoint her own nominated person to run the country by suspending parliament

I bet the thought has crossed her mind.

 

[C J Snarzell]

Wonder if the Queen watches the news the last few press briefings have been very poor Boris just waffling away and sending a confusing message to the nation the problems with the lorries stuck on the M20 and the truckers having no facilities makes us look like a third world country run by a third rate govt .Perhaps the Queen as head of state can summon Boris to the Palace and relieve him of command and appoint her own nominated person to run the country by suspending parliament

The Queen does have what is know as 'Reserve Power' to step in and make changes to Parliament.

To the best of my knowledge the closest the Queen has used this was in 1963 when she installed Alec Douglas-Home as Prime Minister. However, PM Harold MacMillan was leaving office anyway.

I'm not too sure how the situation would play out with Boris - whether she would force his hand and tell him his position has become untenable.

CJ

 

[johnnychips]

The Queen does have what is know as 'Reserve Power' to step in and make changes to Parliament.

To the best of my knowledge the closest the Queen has used this was in 1963 when she installed Alec Douglas-Home as Prime Minister. However, PM Harold MacMillan was leaving office anyway....


CJ

A bit off topic but the Queen’s representative in Australia once forced their PM to resign.

1975 Australian constitutional crisis - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

According to a recent article in the Telegraph - behind a paywall - she didn’t know he was going to do it. Sod’s law I can’t find the link now.

 

[brad465]

This is very speculative, but in the event of a third lockdown lasting until at least the end of January I don't see Johnson surviving, because he's in a no win situation with the Brexit outcome on top: if there is no deal in January the disruption this will cause, both in general and in particular with getting key Covid supplies in, will be damaging enough to hasten his departure. If however he concedes to getting a deal and/or in particular brings in what's being dubbed an "implementation period", or an unlikely outright transition period extension, the ERG and co. will not be happy with him in this respect.

Either of those scenarios on their own may keep Johnson in until the spring at least, but a long lasting Covid lockdown doing more harm than good, and in particular one that won't appear to see much compliance, will, on top of whatever Brexit outcome happens, likely finish him (essentially a complete collapse of the country will result from the two combined).

 

[6862]

I can't be the only person that feels like Boris is intentionally trying to destroy as many businesses as he possibly can. But the question is why is he doing it? What does he stand to gain from it? Or is it rather that he doesn't stand to lose anything from it? I voted for the Conservatives at the last election and previously generally found myself agreeing with Conservative Party economic policy, but it now looks like Boris is an out and out communist, determined to see us all dependent on the state and with no free enterprise or business - both of which are key foundations of a capitalist society such as we live(d?) in. What do other people think - has Boris unleashed some inner communist streak? Of course I don't really think that Boris is actually a communist, but he is acting like one.

 

[Yew]

I can't be the only person that feels like Boris is intentionally trying to destroy as many businesses as he possibly can. But the question is why is he doing it? What does he stand to gain from it? Or is it rather that he doesn't stand to lose anything from it? I voted for the Conservatives at the last election and previously generally found myself agreeing with Conservative Party economic policy, but it now looks like Boris is an out and out communist, determined to see us all dependent on the state and with no free enterprise or business - both of which are key foundations of a capitalist society such as we live(d?) in. What do other people think - has Boris unleashed some inner communist streak? Of course I don't really think that Boris is actually a communist, but he is acting like one.

I struggle to see communism, there's no movement to public ownership of the means of production, however lots of large companies are no doubt going to have a field day when they can pick up the assets of their smaller bankrupt compeititors.

 

[bb21]

It's got nothing to do with communism. I do find it amusing when people just throw around the word "communism" as if it is some type of general insult.

Boris is just out of his depth. Incompetence is the word you are look for, and he has surrounded himself with a cabinet full of the same characters. Zero leadership quality.

 

[MikeWM]

I struggle to see communism, there's no movement to public ownership of the means of production, however lots of large companies are no doubt going to have a field day when they can pick up the assets of their smaller bankrupt compeititors.

Yes, that's the key. Much more akin to 'disaster capitalism'. The effects will be very long-lasting - no-one in their right mind will want to start a new small business for years, and even if they did, no bank in their right mind would lend them the money to do so.

It is rather fair to say that between this and the way they handled Brexit, the Conservatives are quite clearly no longer the 'party of small business'.

 

[6862]

It's got nothing to do with communism. I do find it amusing when people just throw around the word "communism" as if it is some type of general insult.

Boris is just out of his depth. Incompetence is the word you are look for, and he has surrounded himself with a cabinet full of the same characters. Zero leadership quality.

I wasn't really intending it as an insult, although I would happily insult Boris if I could!

But I do think that his policy of putting small companies out of businesses does have something in common with the socialist or communist tendency to discourage small business.

Yes, that's the key. Much more akin to 'disaster capitalism'. The effects will be very long-lasting - no-one in their right mind will want to start a new small business for years, and even if they did, no bank in their right mind would lend them the money to do so.

This probably sums up what I am thinking quite nicely actually.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 30 Dec 2020 ==

I struggle to see communism, there's no movement to public ownership of the means of production, however lots of large companies are no doubt going to have a field day when they can pick up the assets of their smaller bankrupt compeititors.

I agree, but there are other aspects to communism - such as more generally encouraging dependence on the state. I think we are seeing that with the repeated extension of the furlough scheme and the government effectively forcing a significant part of the workforce to make use of it.

 

[bb21]

I wasn't really intending it as an insult, although I would happily insult Boris if I could!

But I do think that his policy of putting small companies out of businesses does have something in common with the socialist or communist tendency to discourage small business.

Sorry that wasn't intended to be aiming specifically at you. It is just a widely observed phenomenon in online discussions and comments. Lots of people seems to be throwing the word around willy-nilly.

But I do get your point and see a whiff of similarity in the context of the epidemic. It's a tedious one though. If we were a country with more heavily socialist views I might even agree.

 

[al78]

Boris gives the impression of being a bumbling idiot. Brexit was cleverly engineered to get him in power and he will have engineered the Covid response so that other people get the blame instead of him.

On here people are primarily blaming the scientists and you yourself seem to be implying that they are running the show, with Boris as their puppet. On social media, everybody is blaming other members of the public for not following the rules.

Either way there is at least one group getting as much blame, if not more blame than Boris.

People frequently blame the scientists for saying things they don't want to hear, even if it is based on their own research and expertise and thus is likely to be the best estimate of the truth. COVID, climate change denial, it's all the same mentality.

 

[MikeWM]

I agree, but there are other aspects to communism - such as more generally encouraging dependence on the state. I think we are seeing that with the repeated extension of the furlough scheme and the government effectively forcing a significant part of the workforce to make use of it.

It will be clearer if the furlough eventually morphs into some form of Universal Basic Income.

While the idea of UBI has some things going for it, after this year I'd find it hard to see it as anything but another attempt by the Government to assert more and more control over our lives.

 

[C J Snarzell]

It will be clearer if the furlough eventually morphs into some form of Universal Basic Income.

While the idea of UBI has some things going for it, after this year I'd find it hard to see it as anything but another attempt by the Government to assert more and more control over our lives.

I do suspect that those on furlough who are happy to remain furloughed are those people facing unemployment when furlough does eventually come to an end.

I don't think the government have any ideas yet about the scale of unemployment this country is likely to face. The recent figures suggest the UK unemployment rate is just above the levels of 2008/09 when the previous recession started.

However, I do suspect we will see a tidal wave of unemployment post Furlough when figures will probably top those of the early 1980s.

There was a really good tune by UB40 called 'One in Ten' that was based on the band's experience of unemployment. How ironic is that tune 40 years later.

CJ