Media Coverage of COVID -19

[yorkie]

I’ve looked but I can’t find any figures to back up your claim that the hospitals are filling up due to patients who should have been treated earlier in the year....

Without wishing to get embroiled in this debate, it is my understanding that hospitals in areas where there are lower rates of Covid admissions are making use of the capacity they have by treating non-Covid patients, whereas in areas where higher rates of Covid admissions are occurring this is less likely to be the case.

I can't remember where I heard that; I think it was from a forum member, but whether it was posted on this fourum, or mentioned to me on one of our many forum walks, I am not sure. But the fact it can be so different in different areas, and the fact that stats may not readily be available, could be causing confusion and resulting in this debate being a case of talking at cross-purposes, perhaps.

 

[Richard Scott]

Without wishing to get embroiled in this debate, it is my understanding that hospitals in areas where there are lower rates of Covid admissions are making use of the capacity they have by treating non-Covid patients, whereas in areas where higher rates of Covid admissions are occurring this is less likely to be the case.

I can't remember where I heard that; I think it was from a forum member, but whether it was posted on this fourum, or mentioned to me on one of our many forum walks, I am not sure. But the fact it can be so different in different areas, and the fact that stats may not readily be available, could be causing confusion and resulting in this debate being a case of talking at cross-purposes, perhaps.

I'm fairly sure that's true of Cheltenham and Gloucester hospitals. Gloucester is dealing with any virus patients whereas Cheltenham is dealing with backlog of other treatments, no virus patients in Cheltenham. Info is from one of my mum's friends who volunteers in Cheltenham.

 

[sjpowermac]

Without wishing to get embroiled in this debate, it is my understanding that hospitals in areas where there are lower rates of Covid admissions are making use of the capacity they have by treating non-Covid patients, whereas in areas where higher rates of Covid admissions are occurring this is less likely to be the case.

I can't remember where I heard that; I think it was from a forum member, but whether it was posted on this fourum, or mentioned to me on one of our many forum walks, I am not sure. But the fact it can be so different in different areas, and the fact that stats may not readily be available, could be causing confusion and resulting in this debate being a case of talking at cross-purposes, perhaps.

You are absolutely right about patients being shipped out to other areas:

In a stark illustration of the growing crisis, some ICUs in London – which is once again the worst affected part of England – are now so overloaded that doctors have asked for some patients to be transferred hundreds of miles away to Yorkshire to get a bed and help reduce the pressure on their services, the Health Service Journal reported.

NHS could face 'horrendous choices' over who gets coronavirus care

Decisions about which patients receive life-saving treatment could be imminent, doctors warn

www.theguardian.com

 

[Bertie the bus]

I’ve looked but I can’t find any figures to back up your claim that the hospitals are filling up due to patients who should have been treated earlier in the year. I think I did answer your question, I said ‘I don’t know’. Since you are something of a doyen of the virus threads I was hoping you might be able to help me.

There was an article on the BBC website a couple of days ago which showed how full hospitals are in all areas of the country. In all areas beds were approx 90% utilised and it stated that this was no coincidence as that is the optimal utilisation. In areas where there are fewer Covid patients they are filling them with other patients. I'm sure if you do some searching on the BBC website you will be able to find the article.

 

[Skimpot flyer]

Why are patients being shipped hundreds of miles, from London to Yorkshire, when government say they have a Nightingale Hospital in East London that is ‘oven ready’ and contrary to other reports, NOT closed??

 

[sjpowermac]

There was an article on the BBC website a couple of days ago which showed how full hospitals are in all areas of the country. In all areas beds were approx 90% utilised and it stated that this was no coincidence as that is the optimal utilisation. In areas where there are fewer Covid patients they are filling them with other patients. I'm sure if you do some searching on the BBC website you will be able to find the article.

Many thanks, appreciated

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 29 Dec 2020 ==

Why are patients being shipped hundreds of miles, from London to Yorkshire, when government say they have a Nightingale Hospital in East London that is ‘oven ready’ and contrary to other reports, NOT closed??

Maybe they haven’t figured out how to get retired doctors to staff it?

 

[RomeoCharlie71]

Maybe they haven’t figured out how to get retired doctors to staff it?

It's not as if they haven't had the whole summer to organise that right enough...

 

[DustyBin]

In regard to the overwhelming of hospitals, it’s a familiar story at this time of year:

Redirect Notice

Patients are dying in hospital corridors as safety is compromised by "intolerable" conditions, doctors say.

The warning has been issued in a letter to the prime minister signed by 68 senior A&E doctors, spelling out the danger patients are facing this winter.

It comes as reports have emerged of people being left for hours on trolleys in corridors and stuck in ambulances.

Hospital bosses said they had run out of beds as they battle with "very high" rates of flu.

This, combined with the following may explain the current crisis:

- The emergence of a novel coronavirus and associated infection (Covid-19) to which as of yet there is limited herd immunity;

- A reduction in the number of available hospital beds, certainly in some areas;

- The number of NHS staff off work either self isolating or, in some cases, actually ill;

- The apparent lack of preparation for what was always going to be a particularly difficult winter;

- The number of people now ill having been denied treatment for non-covid related ailments over the last nine months.

If anybody is able to debunk any of the above via hard evidence to the contrary please do; these are only my thoughts based on what I’ve read, heard and to a certain extent seen with my own eyes. I suspect however, at least some of these factors are real, and as such I’m not (yet) convinced that the pressure some hospitals are under is simply the result of the virus mutating or otherwise getting out of control.

 

[Laryk]

In regard to the overwhelming of hospitals, it’s a familiar story at this time of year:

Redirect Notice

This, combined with the following may explain the current crisis:

- The emergence of a novel coronavirus and associated infection (Covid-19) to which as of yet there is limited herd immunity;

- A reduction in the number of available hospital beds, certainly in some areas;

- The number of NHS staff off work either self isolating or, in some cases, actually ill;

- The apparent lack of preparation for what was always going to be a particularly difficult winter;

- The number of people now ill having been denied treatment for non-covid related ailments over the last nine months.

If anybody is able to debunk any of the above via hard evidence to the contrary please do; these are only my thoughts based on what I’ve read, heard and to a certain extent seen with my own eyes. I suspect however, at least some of these factors are real, and as such I’m not (yet) convinced that the pressure some hospitals are under is simply the result of the virus mutating or otherwise getting out of control.

I don't think anyone would disagree that all of those factors are contributing to the situation. Of course the pressure isn't solely due to "the result of the virus mutating or otherwise getting out of control."

Why do you feel like you need to be convinced that's the reason?

Whatever your view is, it is reasonable to accept that points 1, 3 and 5 are dealt with by reducing the rate of new Covid infections. (Unless you argue for point 1 that the way out is through herd immunity from increased transmission, but that would be an extremely hard sell given the situation right now).

Points 2 and 4 are typical "head in the sand hoping it won't be as bad as our advisors are warning us" problems.

Regarding point 5, non-emergency admissions to hospitals fell sharply during the first "wave" because of the pressure on hospitals. As the crisis reduced, non-emergency admissions had reverted to near-normal levels by October, so it would be unfair to say that people have been denied treatment for 9 months. The data shows the NHS was returning to normal throughout summer and autumn. If the situation was under control now then non-emergency admissions would still be near-normal. (Presuming they have fallen now).

 

[sjpowermac]

It's not as if they haven't had the whole summer to organise that right enough...

I don’t work in hospital management, so I can’t really comment directly. What I can tell you is that in most professions there simply isn’t a ready supply of people just waiting to come in and fill recruitment gaps.

I think the age factor is relevant too. Whilst doubtless there will be some doctors/nurses who have carried on and not retired or come out of retirement, I suspect it’s not an attractive proposition for them.

Remember, despite the prevailing view on these threads that Covid is nothing to worry about, perhaps people who have worked in an intensive care unit might take a bit of a different view.

I can only offer anecdotal evidence from my own field, which is education. Prior to Covid we had plenty of supply teachers, many of whom were retired, only too willing to come in for whatever work we could offer them. Last term the cost of getting anyone in went through the roof as all the retired teachers chose to stay home. On some occasions we couldn’t get anyone and staff rallied round to cover.

As to why it was felt the hospitals would play a big part in the crisis, you would be asking the wrong person. I’m merely pointing out that it’s easy enough to convert a building into a hospital, not so easy to find trained staff in a sector where there were already shortages.

 

[DustyBin]

I don't think anyone would disagree that all of those factors are contributing to the situation. Of course the pressure isn't solely due to "the result of the virus mutating or otherwise getting out of control."

Why do you feel like you need to be convinced that's the reason?

Whatever your view is, it is reasonable to accept that points 1, 3 and 5 are dealt with by reducing the rate of new Covid infections. (Unless you argue for point 1 that the way out is through herd immunity from increased transmission, but that would be an extremely hard sell given the situation right now).

Points 2 and 4 are typical "head in the sand hoping it won't be as bad as our advisors are warning us" problems.

Regarding point 5, non-emergency admissions to hospitals fell sharply during the first "wave" because of the pressure on hospitals. As the crisis reduced, non-emergency admissions had reverted to near-normal levels by October, so it would be unfair to say that people have been denied treatment for 9 months. The data shows the NHS was returning to normal throughout summer and autumn. If the situation was under control now then non-emergency admissions would still be near-normal. (Presuming they have fallen now).

Apologies, it was late when I wrote that post and I don’t appear to have made the point I was actually trying to make! Which is, the BBC (and others) are telling us that the virus (particularly the ‘new’ strain) is out of control and we must go into lockdown to save the NHS. It’s the now familiar scare tactic used to justify restrictions, without any critical analysis of the situation. What you say in regard to points 1, 3 and 5 is of course true, but we’ve recently came out of a ‘soft’ lockdown and into a tier system and yet here we are; I don’t believe lockdowns are the answer. In regard to point 3 specifically, my concern is that frontline staff are having to isolate needlessly as I believe they follow the same rules as everybody else?

Two further points which concern me are that some hospitals are very quiet (we don’t hear about those) and there seems to be an unacceptably high prevalence of in-hospital transmission, which is brushed under the carpet.

 

[farleigh]

Bold prediction.

Hospitals will not be overwhelmed

 

[Laryk]

Apologies, it was late when I wrote that post and I don’t appear to have made the point I was actually trying to make! Which is, the BBC (and others) are telling us that the virus (particularly the ‘new’ strain) is out of control and we must go into lockdown to save the NHS. It’s the now familiar scare tactic used to justify restrictions, without any critical analysis of the situation. What you say in regard to points 1, 3 and 5 is of course true, but we’ve recently came out of a ‘soft’ lockdown and into a tier system and yet here we are; I don’t believe lockdowns are the answer. In regard to point 3 specifically, my concern is that frontline staff are having to isolate needlessly as I believe they follow the same rules as everybody else?

Two further points which concern me are that some hospitals are very quiet (we don’t hear about those) and there seems to be an unacceptably high prevalence of in-hospital transmission, which is brushed under the carpet.

Ignore "new" strain or otherwise. You need only glance at the data to see why there is concern. We see just this morning that a major incident has been declared in Essex. I'm sure it wasn't declared for fun. Has there been any other method demonstrated to reduce the rate of transmission as effectively as "lockdown" - because I can't see any other country in the world that - when faced with an increasing burden on their health system - has chosen an alternative method. I'm confident that if there were easier and less damaging measures we would have heard about them / seen evidence of them.

It was obvious from September that the Tier system wasn't doing enough to reduce transmission. Maybe it would have if we had got numbers down slightly further in summer, and/or we had a functioning test and trace system before September. Lockdowns were never meant to be the answer, they are a last resort when all over methods have failed.

Here is an article dealing with the "very quiet hospitals"
Here is an article dealing with the challenges of in-hospital transmission

Your concern about front-line staff having to isolate is at odds with your view of unacceptably high in-hospital transmission.

 

[sjpowermac]

Bold prediction.

Hospitals will not be overwhelmed

In your view, transferring patients from Intensive Care Units in London to Yorkshire isn’t an example of hospitals being overwhelmed?

 

[Laryk]

Bold prediction.

Hospitals will not be overwhelmed

I am optimistic that they won't be - at least not to the point where they can no longer function.
Why? Because of measures that have been taken and will be taken to ensure it doesn't happen.

As demonstrated in the first wave.

 

[yorksrob]

Ignore "new" strain or otherwise. You need only glance at the data to see why there is concern. We see just this morning that a major incident has been declared in Essex. I'm sure it wasn't declared for fun. Has there been any other method demonstrated to reduce the rate of transmission as effectively as "lockdown" - because I can't see any other country in the world that - when faced with an increasing burden on their health system - has chosen an alternative method. I'm confident that if there were easier and less damaging measures we would have heard about them / seen evidence of them.

Shielding of the vulnerable was a large part of the action taken during the March spike.

I've not seen any comparative analysis of the effectiveness of that approach, as opposed to the lockdown element. It doesn't appear to be being persued at present.

 

[Laryk]

Shielding of the vulnerable was a large part of the action taken during the March spike.

I've not seen any comparative analysis of the effectiveness of that approach, as opposed to the lockdown element. It doesn't appear to be being persued at present.

Gov.uk on shielding. Clinically extremely vulnerable people in Tier 4 should be shielding.

And anyway, the point of shielding was never to reduce the rate of transmission by a meaningful amount.

 

[yorksrob]

Gov.uk on shielding. Clinically extremely vulnerable people in Tier 4 should be shielding.

And anyway, the point of shielding was never to reduce the rate of transmission by a meaningful amount.

Indeed, the point of shielding was to stop them ending up in hospital - which is precisely what needs to be happening now.

Perhaps for the next month or two, shielding needs to be introduced to some of the lower tiers. Also, shielding first time around included the vulnerable, as well as the extremely clinically vulnerable.

 

[DustyBin]

Ignore "new" strain or otherwise. You need only glance at the data to see why there is concern. We see just this morning that a major incident has been declared in Essex. I'm sure it wasn't declared for fun. Has there been any other method demonstrated to reduce the rate of transmission as effectively as "lockdown" - because I can't see any other country in the world that - when faced with an increasing burden on their health system - has chosen an alternative method. I'm confident that if there were easier and less damaging measures we would have heard about them / seen evidence of them.

It was obvious from September that the Tier system wasn't doing enough to reduce transmission. Maybe it would have if we had got numbers down slightly further in summer, and/or we had a functioning test and trace system before September. Lockdowns were never meant to be the answer, they are a last resort when all over methods have failed.

Here is an article dealing with the "very quiet hospitals"
Here is an article dealing with the challenges of in-hospital transmission

Your concern about front-line staff having to isolate is at odds with your view of unacceptably high in-hospital transmission.

But this will be the third national lockdown (potentially). How many more, along with the collateral damage, are you willing to tolerate? Regarding the major incident in Essex, I refer back my original point; something like this happens every year.

Some of us have discussed other less damaging measures on here, the government and their advisors won’t consider implementing them as that would in effect be an admission of guilt. Firstly, of failing to protect the vulnerable in the first place and secondly of needlessly wrecking our economy. I’d also like to know why they abandoned all traditional epidemiological thinking in their initial response to this virus, something they’ve never adequately explained....

I had a read of the linked articles, thanks. The first one makes some good points regarding ‘half empty’ hospitals appearing less busy than they are, but it doesn’t deal with the issue of hospitals actually being quiet, which some are (according to a relative and a friend who both work for the NHS). Perhaps we should remind ourselves what the ‘N’ stands for in NHS and better utilise our resources? The second article identifies what are, in reality, poor practices potentially leading to transmission within hospitals and reflects what I’ve been told (again by actual NHS workers). I’m not suggesting a ‘witch hunt’ here by any means but if people are contracting covid in hospital we need to know why and the extent to which they make up the numbers.

I get your final point and I thought you’d pick up on this, and I don’t have all the answers. However, could perfectly well covid positive staff not work exclusively on covid wards? I obviously don’t want nurses etc. spreading the virus but as they are such a scarce resource at present could they not be utilised as long as they are fit and well? Again, we’re apparently in a dire situation here so unorthodox thinking is required. If this has all been considered and dismissed for good reason then fair enough, as I said I don’t profess to have all the answers!

 

[kristiang85]

In your view, transferring patients from Intensive Care Units in London to Yorkshire isn’t an example of hospitals being overwhelmed?

Doesn't this kind of thing happen in most winters where there's pressure on the NHS

Edit: eg 2018 https://www.theguardian.com/society...ures-winter-crisis?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Other

NHS trusts are expanding A&Es, paying for patients to be cared for in nursing homes and looking after more people at home to help them cope with the impending winter crisis, which experts have warned will be the toughest ever. Patients also face being moved between hospitals to help relieve overcrowding as the NHS braces for a surge in demand during December, January and February.

 

[sjpowermac]

Doesn't this kind of thing happen in most winters where there's pressure on the NHS

Edit: eg 2018 https://www.theguardian.com/society...ures-winter-crisis?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Other

Ah, thanks for putting my mind at rest.

Great to hear there’s absolutely nothing to worry about and that it’s just the press/lazy doctors/poor managers whipping up a storm over nothing.

 

[Yew]

Gov.uk on shielding. Clinically extremely vulnerable people in Tier 4 should be shielding.

And anyway, the point of shielding was never to reduce the rate of transmission by a meaningful amount.

Yes it was, it was supposed to reduce the transmission into the people who are vulnerable. Which is the single most important factor in this whole debarcle.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 30 Dec 2020 ==

In your view, transferring patients from Intensive Care Units in London to Yorkshire isn’t an example of hospitals being overwhelmed?

Fire appliances are shared between fire stations to provide cover on a regular basis. Does this mean the fire service is in constant danger of being overwhelmed?

 

[kristiang85]

Ah, thanks for putting my mind at rest.

Great to hear there’s absolutely nothing to worry about and that it’s just the press/lazy doctors/poor managers whipping up a storm over nothing.

You're missing the point (and putting words in my mouth). The narrative of the NHS being overwhelmed is used to drive justification for more lockdowns.

The point is that it happens every winter, and COVID is not the main cause but woeful underinvestment by the government in our health service. Even worse, the government banged on about the winter being a crisis point all summer yet seemingly haven't done anything about it, despite clearly having the financial resources (see furlough, test and trace, other eyewateringly expensive contracts...).

Why should the general population have to suffer with huge restrictions on their freedom because of the govermenent's incompetence when the situation isn't exactly any different from an average winter?

 

[MikeWM]

You're missing the point (and putting words in my mouth). The narrative of the NHS being overwhelmed is used to drive justification for more lockdowns.

The point is that it happens every winter, and COVID is not the main cause but woeful underinvestment by the government in our health service.

Indeed it was a major feature of the (now largely forgotten, it seems) 2019 General Election campaign.

Do we remember this story, for example?

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/dec/09/refuses-to-look-at-picture-of-boy-forced-to-sleep-on-hospital-floor

PM refuses to look at picture of boy forced to sleep on hospital floor​

Boris Johnson has been accused of not caring after he repeatedly refused during a TV interview to look at a photo of a four-year-old boy forced to sleep on the floor at an overcrowded A&E unit, before pocketing the reporter’s phone on which he was being shown the picture.

In an ITV interview during a campaign visit to a factory in Sunderland, the prime minister was challenged about the plight of Jack Williment-Barr, who was pictured sleeping under coats on a hospital floor in Leeds as he waited for a bed, despite having suspected pneumonia.

Even worse, the government banged on about the winter being a crisis point all summer yet seemingly haven't done anything about it, despite clearly having the financial resources (see furlough, test and trace, other eyewateringly expensive contracts...).

Why should the general population have to suffer with huge restrictions on their freedom because of the govermenent's incompetence when the situation isn't exactly any different from an average winter?

Exactly. The only thing worse than the fact they trotted out the 'protect the NHS' line again, after totally failing to do anything about it, is the fact that so many people have swallowed it and not asked these exact questions.

 

[kristiang85]

Indeed it was a major feature of the (now largely forgotten, it seems) 2019 General Election campaign.

Do we remember this story, for example?

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/dec/09/refuses-to-look-at-picture-of-boy-forced-to-sleep-on-hospital-floor




Exactly. The only thing worse than the fact they trotted out the 'protect the NHS' line again, after totally failing to do anything about it, is the fact that so many people have swallowed it and not asked these exact questions.

Absolutely. When you look at the numbers spent on the COVID response and short-term mitigation measures, we could actually have had our 'world class' NHS set up for decades to come. But instead, eye watering sums have disappeared into thin air, and the NHS' struggles will be a political features for many years - even decades - to come.

As you say, nobody in the media, government or general population seem to be asking these questions.

 

[Bantamzen]

Exactly. The only thing worse than the fact they trotted out the 'protect the NHS' line again, after totally failing to do anything about it, is the fact that so many people have swallowed it and not asked these exact questions.

Is the correct answer, aside from fleeting mentions from the BBC on their live feeds & the occasional dissenters, very little has been made about how we have less capacity than many of our European neighbours & that this capacity has been steadily eroded over the years. In effect we have helped the government mask their under investment in the NHS this year. I hope 2021 sees a few more people asking searching questions.

 

[Laryk]

Indeed it was a major feature of the (now largely forgotten, it seems) 2019 General Election campaign.

Do we remember this story, for example?

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/dec/09/refuses-to-look-at-picture-of-boy-forced-to-sleep-on-hospital-floor




Exactly. The only thing worse than the fact they trotted out the 'protect the NHS' line again, after totally failing to do anything about it, is the fact that so many people have swallowed it and not asked these exact questions.

Absolutely. When you look at the numbers spent on the COVID response and short-term mitigation measures, we could actually have had our 'world class' NHS set up for decades to come. But instead, eye watering sums have disappeared into thin air, and the NHS' struggles will be a political features for many years - even decades - to come.

As you say, nobody in the media, government or general population seem to be asking these questions.

Is the correct answer, aside from fleeting mentions from the BBC on their live feeds & the occasional dissenters, very little has been made about how we have less capacity than many of our European neighbours & that this capacity has been steadily eroded over the years. In effect we have helped the government mask their under investment in the NHS this year. I hope 2021 sees a few more people asking searching questions.

You're missing the point (and putting words in my mouth). The narrative of the NHS being overwhelmed is used to drive justification for more lockdowns.

The point is that it happens every winter, and COVID is not the main cause but woeful underinvestment by the government in our health service. Even worse, the government banged on about the winter being a crisis point all summer yet seemingly haven't done anything about it, despite clearly having the financial resources (see furlough, test and trace, other eyewateringly expensive contracts...).

Why should the general population have to suffer with huge restrictions on their freedom because of the govermenent's incompetence when the situation isn't exactly any different from an average winter?

It's perfectly possible to both believe the seriousness of the Covid situation whilst also being aware that we wouldn't be in such a serious situation if the government had been more adequately prepared and the NHS hadn't been suffering from a decade of underinvestment. In fact, once attention shifts from crisis to reflection, I would be surprised if this wasn't a conversation to be had. But how does that help the situation now?

To touch on the "it happens every winter" theme, yes it does. But what we see in examples are the "worst case" examples that can be found at the height of the winter pressures. And they're also predictable pressures. The obvious difference now is we are seeing the same pressure now (if not worse), but the rate of infection and therefore hospitalisation are showing no signs of reducing. With more patients in hospital already compared to the last wave (which also wasn't during winter, so the whole NHS isn't in crisis because it happens every time in winter arguments falls down here) we are in an unprecedented situation.

Finally, I don't understand why these comments suggest that just because the crisis is mostly the governments own failings, it means that all the warnings we are seeing from staff on the ground, hospital trusts, police chiefs etc can therefore be dismissed?

Yes it was, it was supposed to reduce the transmission into the people who are vulnerable. Which is the single most important factor in this whole debarcle.

The vulnerable group were never asked to shield. Only the clinically extremely vulnerable. I would argue that the decision to shield was not driven by a desire to reduce the overall rate of infection (that was the purpose of lockdown), but to protect those that would likely die following infection.
By the definition of vulnerable being those who are entitled to the winter flu vaccination, there are approximately 15m people in this category. So approx 1/4 of the population straight away.
Clinically extremely vulnerable has only 1.5m.
People will have different opinions on the cost of tiers for all vs lockdown for vulnerable only, although it may become more acceptable as the vaccine rollout progresses.

 

[Yew]

I would argue that the decision to shield was not driven by a desire to reduce the overall rate of infection (that was the purpose of lockdown), but to protect those that would likely die following infection.

I think we're making roughly the same point.

 

[Bantamzen]

It's perfectly possible to both believe the seriousness of the Covid situation whilst also being aware that we wouldn't be in such a serious situation if the government had been more adequately prepared and the NHS hadn't been suffering from a decade of underinvestment. In fact, once attention shifts from crisis to reflection, I would be surprised if this wasn't a conversation to be had. But how does that help the situation now?

How does it help now? Well for a start it should focus minds on the problem instead of flailing around trying to apportion blame. As we stand now we have two vaccines coming online, we have new treatments available, and we better understand who are most at risk. So we have a gateway out of these never ending cycles of lockdown-relax-lockdown-relax. And that is what we should be focusing on, getting the vaccines and treatments to those that need them, and not constantly penalising the entertainment & hospitality sectors, as well as kids & students and anyone else that has been blamed at one time or another.

To touch on the "it happens every winter" theme, yes it does. But what we see in examples are the "worst case" examples that can be found at the height of the winter pressures. And they're also predictable pressures. The obvious difference now is we are seeing the same pressure now (if not worse), but the rate of infection and therefore hospitalisation are showing no signs of reducing. With more patients in hospital already compared to the last wave (which also wasn't during winter, so the whole NHS isn't in crisis because it happens every time in winter arguments falls down here) we are in an unprecedented situation.

Actually we may not be seeing the usual pressures, the waiting lists for operations and treatments is longer than ever as patients have been put on hold so it is likely that less non-covid admissions are being seen as a result. Somewhere there will probably be data on this, I'll see if I can find it.

Finally, I don't understand why these comments suggest that just because the crisis is mostly the governments own failings, it means that all the warnings we are seeing from staff on the ground, hospital trusts, police chiefs etc can therefore be dismissed?

These warnings happen every year though, in fact they have been going on for decades. The NHS lurches from crisis to crisis every single year. So no they cannot be dismissed, but at the same time it is the government (and previous ones) that ignore the warnings every year and under invests so it isn't just a suggestion, the government are fairly & squarely at the heart of the problem.

 

[SS4]

It's almost as though the NHS has been underfunded for at least a decade but the papers won't talk about it because they and the Tories are largely aligned.