New 4-tier system for England

[Bertie the bus]

I've always been of the opinion that in the West in general this is a social media-driven pandemic, and effectively governments have been 'bullied' by the mobs calling them granny killers.

Not to mention that lockdowns only came about due to the Chinese using lockdowns themselves initially and the flooding on social media of horrific images of people collapsing in streets, etc, which it now turns out were targeted and most likely fake. Lockdowns were not even talked about at WHO level until then.

Basically, if this had happened 15 years ago I fully expect it would have been a difficult spring and winter on the NHS, but nobody would have noticed too much apart from a lot of angry headlines about the usual annual NHS crisis.

It isn’t just social media. The mainstream media has also played a huge part. Things don’t change fast enough to fill 24 hour rolling news broadcasts so they fill the broadcasts with the opinions of anybody they can find and the sort of people they can find, and want, are the people who make the most exaggerated claims. That’s what makes the best TV and knowing that is the easiest way of getting on TV encourages these people to make the scariest claims possible.

 

[Ianno87]

It isn’t just social media. The mainstream media has also played a huge part. Things don’t change fast enough to fill 24 hour rolling news broadcasts so they fill the broadcasts with the opinions of anybody they can find and the sort of people they can find, and want, are the people who make the most exaggerated claims. That’s what makes the best TV and knowing that is the easiest way of getting on TV encourages these people to make the scariest claims possible.

And every time this study and that study is published by scientists, it's brought straight out to fill the time too, seldom shown on balance with everything else.

 

[kristiang85]

It isn’t just social media. The mainstream media has also played a huge part. Things don’t change fast enough to fill 24 hour rolling news broadcasts so they fill the broadcasts with the opinions of anybody they can find and the sort of people they can find, and want, are the people who make the most exaggerated claims. That’s what makes the best TV and knowing that is the easiest way of getting on TV encourages these people to make the scariest claims possible.

Agreed. I think a lot of the dumbing down and sensationalism of mainstream media is down to social media though - certainly even the BBC is so lazy now it takes soundbites from Twitter rather than doing any proper journalism. Add in the fact that people are stuck in their homes with 24hr news, it's all a big snowball effect really.

But I absolutely agree, the 'trusted' mainstream media have been horrendously irresponsible with their pedalling of the COVID fear, albeit the broadcast media have been a bit hamstrung by OFCOM regulations as well, which is also a big issue in the background that not many citizens really appreciate.

 

[DB]

albeit the broadcast media have been a bit hamstrung by OFCOM regulations as well, which is also a big issue in the background that not many citizens really appreciate.

Yes, indeed. It's really not good when the broadcast media is effectively forced to parrot the government's line, whether or not they actually agree with it.

 

[brad465]

This is my biggest worry. If this were truly a one-off, I could just about live with it, but now there is precedent for locking down to avoid preventable deaths, where is the line drawn? It is all but guaranteed that the next time there’s a “bad” flu season, there’ll be talk about “restrictions to save lives”.

Among things that may avert this are the reality kicking in about economic damage, in particular the struggles of suddenly now finding funding the NHS harder, but also if there are measures of increased suicides, avoidable cancer deaths, etc., appearing in the next few years (bearing in mind for all the talk of the cure being worse than the disease, most of the "worse" aspect won't have happened yet in all respects).

Something I thought of earlier today with these restrictions (from a more specific perspective that is), is I think regardless of the whole situation with Covid at the time, come mid-March I think restrictions will have to be significantly less than the 1st/any lockdown, so at the impression of things being better than a year ago exists. They may not be fully gone (as much as I'd like them to be), but I think at the very least everything bar maybe mass gatherings needs to be allowed, with at worst social distancing remaining in certain environments, but not in all areas. Given there should have been a large volume of vaccinations done by then, combined with the current wave pattern and seasonal behaviour suggesting infections and hospital admissions will eventually drop off, there'll hopefully be justification aimed at those running the show to lift things.

 

[PeterY]

Where I live there are more on the footpath than on people's faces.

I see them everywhere now.
I walked my 10 miles (along a disused railway) today but next time I do that walk, I'm going to count how many masks I see on the ground.

 

[duncanp]

Among things that may avert this are the reality kicking in about economic damage, in particular the struggles of suddenly now finding funding the NHS harder, but also if there are measures of increased suicides, avoidable cancer deaths, etc., appearing in the next few years (bearing in mind for all the talk of the cure being worse than the disease, most of the "worse" aspect won't have happened yet in all respects).

Something I thought of earlier today with these restrictions (from a more specific perspective that is), is I think regardless of the whole situation with Covid at the time, come mid-March I think restrictions will have to be significantly less than the 1st/any lockdown, so at the impression of things being better than a year ago exists. They may not be fully gone (as much as I'd like them to be), but I think at the very least everything bar maybe mass gatherings needs to be allowed, with at worst social distancing remaining in certain environments, but not in all areas. Given there should have been a large volume of vaccinations done by then, combined with the current wave pattern and seasonal behaviour suggesting infections and hospital admissions will eventually drop off, there'll hopefully be justification aimed at those running the show to lift things.

And the budget is on March 3rd, so Boris will need to have some easing of restrictions to sweeten the inevitable tax rises that are going to take place.

After all, there is not much point in raising the duty on a pint of beer if the pubs are still closed.

Perhaps there should be a "drink out to help out" campaign in April to help the government raise extra revenue in duty on alcohol.

 

[Bertie the bus]

Yes, indeed. It's really not good when the broadcast media is effectively forced to parrot the government's line, whether or not they actually agree with it.

I have no idea where you get the media pedalling the government line from. In the main they have been doing the complete opposite. Vociferously calling for harsher restrictions than the government imposes, having supposed experts on claiming thousands of people will die if restrictions are lifted, and then going into overdrive with tales of allegedly irresponsible behaviour every time the government does lift any restrictions.

 

[Crossover]

Labour also support all the restrictions imposed, so not just the government. I don't support the Tories but I don't think they'd impose restrictions unless they're concerned and genuinely feel there is a need.

Last time I checked, Labour had abstained (largely - there may have been a few No?) from the last tiers vote. I’m not sure that’s supporting all the restrictions!

 

[DB]

I have no idea where you get the media pedalling the government line from. In the main they have been doing the complete opposite. Vociferously calling for harsher restrictions than the government imposes, having supposed experts on claiming thousands of people will die if restrictions are lifted, and then going into overdrive with tales of allegedly irresponsible behaviour every time the government does lift any restrictions.

Both are following the same paranoia and restrictions line. I have no idea how you can claim that the media is doing the 'complete opposite' to the government - they might differ a bit on degree, but that's about it. The 'complete opposite' of the government line would be to call for the scrapping of all restrictions.

Broadcast media also risk having Ofcom after them if they broadcast things which are 'harmful' - which can include disputing Government Policy on the grounds that it's over the top. See here for more details:

Broadcast standards during the coronavirus pandemic

Information about Ofcom's enforcement of broadcast standards during the coronavirus pandemic.

www.ofcom.org.uk

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 24 Dec 2020 ==

Last time I checked, Labour had abstained (largely - there may have been a few No?) from the last tiers vote. I’m not sure that’s supporting all the restrictions!

Come on, it really is! By abstaining they made sure it was approved. If they didn't support it they would have voted against.

 

[Crossover]

Come on, it really is! By abstaining they made sure it was approved. If they didn't support it they would have voted against.

Please enlighten me - why not just vote for it then, rather than appearing to sit on the fence? Is it so they can't be blamed quite so much for the aftermath?

 

[Richard Scott]

Please enlighten me - why not just vote for it then, rather than appearing to sit on the fence? Is it so they can't be blamed quite so much for the aftermath?

Possibly they don't like supporting the Government or perhaps they think the restrictions don't go far enough. Or maybe it's just politicians being childish, the one thing they still do well?

 

[Crossover]

Possibly they don't like supporting the Government or perhaps they think the restrictions don't go far enough. Or maybe it's just politicians being childish, the one thing they still do well?

I'd bet on the latter

 

[DB]

Possibly they don't like supporting the Government or perhaps they think the restrictions don't go far enough. Or maybe it's just politicians being childish, the one thing they still do well?

Yes, either one of those or covering their backs as best they can in case the public mood turns against restrictions over the next few weeks.

 

[The Ham]

Lockdown was one thing last March when time needed to be bought to get the house in order, but it’s completely unacceptable a year down the line.


Why do you think the furlough scheme has been extended to April? There’s a clue there.

Given that companies (depending on size) need to give up to 45 days notice from start of consultation of redundancies and there's a budget at the beginning of March, it could be argued that it allows any extension/successes to the Furlough Scheme can be announced in the budget rather than separately without people being made redundant when they didn't need to be.

 

[DustyBin]

Perhaps there should be a "drink out to help out" campaign in April to help the government raise extra revenue in duty on alcohol.

This has actually been talked about!

I suggested calling it “pass out to help out” which wasn’t too well received....

 

[High Dyke]

If this happens, and it is anywhere near election time, it would probably be curtains for the present government.

Wishful thinking.

 

[yorksrob]

Listening to another interviewee from SAGE on the radio this morning, it's interesting that the narrative of the original tier 2 apparently being wholly ineffective is now being aggressively promoted. At the time, I recall them saying that the tier 2 areas were "a mixed bag", which was clearly an admission that in some areas at least, tier 2 restrictions weren't leading to higher infection rates. Obviously this is now being expunged from history.

 

[6862]

Obviously this is now being expunged from history.

This obsession we seem to have with erasing (recent) history that we don't agree with is really frustrating. Like Johnson and co distancing themselves (and even denying) that herd immunity was ever a strategy they considered.

 

[Bantamzen]

Listening to another interviewee from SAGE on the radio this morning, it's interesting that the narrative of the original tier 2 apparently being wholly ineffective is now being aggressively promoted. At the time, I recall them saying that the tier 2 areas were "a mixed bag", which was clearly an admission that in some areas at least, tier 2 restrictions weren't leading to higher infection rates. Obviously this is now being expunged from history.

If anything needs expunging from history it is the advice given by SAGE. They are clearly incapable of offering pragmatic & practical advice, and sound more like a Trump rally...

"Lock 'em up! Lock 'em up!"

 

[UP13]

Yesterday my wife woke up to a message from the track and trace app saying she needed to self isolate for 2 days.

I wonder how many people she could have affected in the past 8 days...

Is it true that Apple and Google etc offered support with the app and the government said no because they wanted it entirely in house and British?

 

[nlogax]

Yesterday my wife woke up to a message from the track and trace app saying she needed to self isolate for 2 days.

I wonder how many people she could have affected in the past 8 days...

Is it true that Apple and Google etc offered support with the app and the government said no because they wanted it entirely in house and British?

Yes and no.

NHS X decided against the joint Apple and Google framework and decided to forge ahead with a third party-developed solution. At some point during the summer they changed their minds and went with Google and Apple's framework instead, which is what the NHS and NHS Scotland apps are using now.

 

[yorksrob]

This obsession we seem to have with erasing (recent) history that we don't agree with is really frustrating. Like Johnson and co distancing themselves (and even denying) that herd immunity was ever a strategy they considered.

I think it clearly doesn't help understanding of any situation to deny the thought processes and decisions that lead to where we've come to. Even if it ammounts to saying "Well, we thought this at the time, but we decided that it was wrong because of x". It rather implys that they're unwilling to discuss "x".

If anything needs expunging from history it is the advice given by SAGE. They are clearly incapable of offering pragmatic & practical advice, and sound more like a Trump rally...

"Lock 'em up! Lock 'em up!"

I think that SAGE have certainly demonstrated a lack of thinking proportionately throughout this crisis.

 

[trainophile]

This Track & Trace thing - if you're out and about with your bluetooth switched off presumably it wouldn't recognise if you're in range of someone who is notifiable for the virus (not sure if it just flags actual cases or also contacts of suspected cases)? How many people have their bluetooth on constantly? I know I don't, I do check the app occasionally but would be surprised to find any alerts due to the bluetooth being mostly off.

 

[Bertie the bus]

If anything needs expunging from history it is the advice given by SAGE. They are clearly incapable of offering pragmatic & practical advice, and sound more like a Trump rally...

"Lock 'em up! Lock 'em up!"

Compared to Independent SAGE (or Bitter Rejected SAGE Wannabes) SAGE are a rational, balanced bunch.

 

[Jamiescott1]

This Track & Trace thing - if you're out and about with your bluetooth switched off presumably it wouldn't recognise if you're in range of someone who is notifiable for the virus (not sure if it just flags actual cases or also contacts of suspected cases)? How many people have their bluetooth on constantly? I know I don't, I do check the app occasionally but would be surprised to find any alerts due to the bluetooth being mostly off.

If I know I'm going out to a pub or restaurant (when I was allowed) I would download the app, check in at the venue and then delete the app as soon as I was sat at the table.

 

[DB]

Yes and no.

NHS X decided against the joint Apple and Google framework and decided to forge ahead with a third party-developed solution. At some point during the summer they changed their minds and went with Google and Apple's framework instead, which is what the NHS and NHS Scotland apps are using now.

Prior to the change of plan, the politicians were boasting about developing a 'world beating' system. They were told right from the beginning by people who knew what they were talking about that there were conceptual flaws which meant it would never work properly, but of course they knew best! When it didn't work proerly they had to do what most other countries had done anyway, and go with the Google/Apple solution.

The reason for wanting to develop their own appeared to be that it was designed to allow vast amounts of data collection, whereas the Google/Apple model doesn't. It's come to something when Google and Apple appear to be the good guys when it comes to not slurping data!

 

[Yew]

If anything needs expunging from history it is the advice given by SAGE. They are clearly incapable of offering pragmatic & practical advice, and sound more like a Trump rally...

"Lock 'em up! Lock 'em up!"

I don't think it's SAGE's fault, its the PM's for failing to take the advice in context, he's supposed to be there to lead the country, not 'follow the science'

Compared to Independent SAGE (or Bitter Rejected SAGE Wannabes) SAGE are a rational, balanced bunch.

Indeed, I was hopeful that they'd provide robust and balanced critique when they initially formed, but their only view seems to be 'more restricitons'.

 

[87 027]

If I know I'm going out to a pub or restaurant (when I was allowed) I would download the app, check in at the venue and then delete the app as soon as I was sat at the table.

I'm actually quite surprised how much control the app gives to the user.
1 You can turn off the proximity tracking within the app itself (as well as turning off Bluetooth on your phone altogether)
2 You can immediately cancel a venue checkin from the confirmation screen e.g. once you have got to your table in a pub
3 You can delete individual checkins at any time
4 You can delete all stored data at any time

Given the emphasis earlier in the year on how 'world beating' all this would be, the app seems a very marginal and peripheral part of the overall response now. I was at a conference recently and views were expressed that track and trace is falling down more broadly in a number of areas
- not enough people who test positive are fully and honestly disclosing all their recent contacts to the test & trace service (e,g. because they don't want to put people they know in a difficult financial situation)
- not all disclosed contacts are able to be traced (incorrect details or don't answer calls)
- not all traced contacts who are told to self-isolate do so fully according to the rules (again because of financial or lifestyle difficulties)
- weak enforcement of the above. Other countries, notably in the Far East, have much stricter and authoritarian mechanisms at their disposal, but also more generous welfare support

 

[trainophile]

I've been told that young people in London routinely give false addresses when they check in somewhere. Could have contributed towards the spike in cases and tier 4 upshot I suppose.