New 4-tier system for England

[DustyBin]

Dread to think. Also Sky are making a thing of Vallance hinting that more restrictions are likely in due course.

It looks like national Tier 4 (or another lockdown) is on it's way.... This is absolutley beyond a joke!

I really think they need to spell out the economic implications of this so that those people supporting these measures are aware of what's coming. Although there's nothing to say they've given it proper consideration themselves.... (Edited to add: The silence surrounding this is deafening!).

 

[adc82140]

Dread to think. Also Sky are making a thing of Vallance hinting that more restrictions are likely in due course.

Well they are Sky. We shouldn't expect any different. Of course there may be further restrictions. But there may not. Prof Gloom didn't actually say that they were likely everywhere, only that it was likely some areas may have to have further restrictions. Classic half reporting by Sky.

 

[The Ham]

Thanks, I appreciate your detailed posts.

What I was getting at is that statistically it’s very likely vaccinated people will die WITH covid.... How they choose to report this will determine the reaction. It’s the old with vs from question all over again....

There's at worst a 1/3 chance of getting Covid with the Oxford vaccine and 1/10-1/20 chance of getting symptoms with the others however what the number of deaths will be after that is difficult to tell at this stage. However given that during the trails no one needed to go to hospital with Covid symptoms then chances of deaths are likely to be lower than would be the case for the same number of cases (although it should be noted that we can't be sure as the sample sizes were very small).

 

[ChrisC]

So are the 20 countries (so far) that have closed their borders to us just scaring their residents as well then?

What I was trying to say was that it is frightening the wrong people. Terrifying elderly and vulnerable people with headlines about a mutant out of control virus is not going to help their mental state. Yet it will not frighten or change the attitudes of those who have right from the beginning ignored all of the rules, even the sensible rules, and have organised large parties etc. I’m not pro lockdown, and I don’t agree with such widespread insistence on mask wearing, but I do agree that there are some sensible precautions of social distancing that are perhaps necessary.

 

[yorkie]

They've managed to vaccinate 500,000 with the first dose in 2 weeks so if they carry on like that 13 million a year - 5-6 years to vaccinate everyone in the UK (just theory of course as there will never be 100%)

But of course there is the second dose so you can double that figure to 10-12 years!

I'll be interested to see how fast they ramp it up as at the moment it isn't happening very quickly and I'll be impressed at some form of normality by Christmas 2021 never mind easter!

A couple of thoughts:
1) They only need to vaccinate the majority of people over around 75 to be able to lift the majority of restrictions;
2) The Oxford vaccine I expect would be quicker to roll out as it is easier to store etc.

Then as more and more groups get vaccinated, restrictions will be ramped down.

I'd say we should be fine for the vast majority of the country to be in Tier 1 once most elderly people are vaccinated, and for many parts to even be in Tier 0 by then.

 

[DB]

A couple of thoughts:
1) They only need to vaccinate the majority of people over around 75 to be able to lift the majority of restrictions;
2) The Oxford vaccine I expect would be quicker to roll out as it is easier to store etc.

Then as more and more groups get vaccinated, restrictions will be ramped down.

I'd say we should be fine for the vast majority of the country to be in Tier 1 once most elderly people are vaccinated, and for many parts to even be in Tier 0 by then.

It could strongly be argued that once everyone over 75 (possiblely 70), and others at particular risk, have been vaccinated there is no need for the tiers at all.

 

[jumble]

The number of people with long-term post-viral conditions will also be a tiny fraction of all cases, but they prop up a great story in the media so it seems there's a lot more of them than there actually are. There are post-viral conditions (similar to so called "long-COVID") that come with all viruses - COVID isn't alone in that respect.

I am not so sure
Just have a read of Mumsnet "AIBU" Thread
Many of the posters there there claim to know many people who have long COVID
( I too have personanally not come across any of people claiming to have long covid and actually know only one person personally who passed away )

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 21 Dec 2020 ==

Seeing as the number of people who've died with Covid as the underlying cause (ie from, not with) is 59,791 out of 68,924 recorded by the ONS, I think the point generally stands. Only cancer has singularly killed more people in the same period

This may be true but is fairly meaningless as you have no idea if they would have died anyway.
It does not say 59,791 people would be alive a week later if they had not caught COVID

As an example of false assumptions I had a relation who was in a car accident aged 7 and had a nasty head injury
There was talk of them going to a rehabilitation centre in Tadworth who had a great reputation for doing fantastic rehabilitation with kids with brain injuries
As it happened they did not go but made a full recovery anyway
Guess what our family would have been telling people about Tadworth had they been treated there!

 

[Class 33]

This ignores the fact that South Gloucestershire is probably in Tier 3 because it is part of the Bristol Urban area and has more links to the City of Bristol rather than the County of Gloucestershire.

Yes, it is a bit of a crazy and slightly confusing situation for Bristol. As about 30% of the districts of the city which many would still class as Bristol, are actually officially classed as being in South Gloucestershire. And South Gloucestershire is in Tier 3, whilst Bristol is in Tier 2.

If I could give one example. An area of the city I used to live some years ago, Horfield. Horfield is classed as being in Bristol. Though where I lived was very very close to the border with Filton, which is classed as South Gloucestshire. So if I wanted to go shopping at Abbey Wood Retail Park where there are large Asda and Sainsbury's Supermarkets along with other stores such as Poundland and B & M, which is barely only about 1 and a half miles away, officially under these new Tiered restrictions I wouldn't be allowed to, as I'd be crossing from a Tier 2 area to a Tier 3 area! In a more extreme example, if I wanted to go just to the local group of shops up Filton Avenue which is just barely about 1/4 a mile away, I also wouldn't be allowed to for the same reasons! This Google Street View photo here demonstrates this. The group of shops is just about visible on the horizon there on the left hand side. There is the Welcome to Filton signpost. And I was living just shortly before that signpost. https://www.google.com/maps/@51.499...4!1s83qL1iW4tG3Bilk-jbh4Cg!2e0!7i13312!8i6656

And on the flip side of that, those people living in Filton which is a Tier 3 area wouldn't officially be allowed to travel into Broadmead/Central Bristol to go shopping, as they'd be crossing from a Tier 3 area to a Tier 2 area!

It's crazy! And like something from some futuristic sci-fi film! Never thought I would ever see anything like this happening in my lifetime. However in the case of examples like this in Bristol, I don't think too many people are sticking strictly to these rules.

That said though, whilst Bristol and North Somerset were lucky enough to be downgraded from Tier 3 to Tier 2, come the tiering reviews on 30th December I am expecting(though not wishing) that they'll be upgraded back to Tier 3 again! Because cases and infection rates are rising again. It looks like they'll both be over 200 per 100,000 again by then, and that may be over the threshold as being allowed to be in Tier 2!

A Hot Yoga studio I used to goto in Bristol a few years, I still receive email news updates from. They have had to close(again!!) from last month. But as Bristol is back in Tier 2 again, they say they will be opening again after the Christmas break on 29th December. Wouldn't be too surprised if due to the tiering review, that come 30th December they'll send another email saying they have to close again from New Year's Eve or New Year's Day until further notice! Barely a day or so after they re-opened! All these businesses having to keep opening and closing every few weeks(or indeed less) due to this crazy lockdown system the government has implemented, is not doing them any good atall.

Come 30th December, I can also see a number more areas upgraded from Tier 2 to Tier 3, and probably more areas upgraded from Tier 3 to the dreaded Tier 4. New Year's Day is not going to be good atall for many, and I don't think many people in the UK will be celebrating and in a good mood this New Year's Eve.

 

[bramling]

It looks like national Tier 4 (or another lockdown) is on it's way.... This is absolutley beyond a joke!

I really think they need to spell out the economic implications of this so that those people supporting these measures are aware of what's coming. Although there's nothing to say they've given it proper consideration themselves.... (Edited to add: The silence surrounding this is deafening!).

I just hope they don’t go for anything really stupid, like masks outside - that would be one way of encouraging people to actually stay at home.

 

[jumble]

Just been on the IOW ferry heading back to the mainland. It was rammed with foot passengers carrying enormous suitcases and Xmas pressies. Lots of HW plate cars packed to the gunwhales. I think the rules are being ignored now. They've gone too far, and the public are started to rebel.

There also seems to be a spat between Hancock and the police federation about enforcing the rules. Hancock is saying they ust, the police federation is saying they won't.

Some idiot bus drivers could not care less
last week we took a bus from Newport to Ryde
There was a double decker and a single decker and lots of school kids queueing behind us
The imbecele driving the double decker asked us to go on the bus behind which we did and then herded all the school kids on the single decker as well leaving his upstairs empty
The school kids sat behind us on the back 2 rows crammed in like sardines

 

[DB]

Yes, it is a bit of a crazy and slightly confusing situation for Bristol. As about 30% of the districts of the city which many would still class as Bristol, are actually officially classed as being in South Gloucestershire. And South Gloucestershire is in Tier 3, whilst Bristol is in Tier 2.

If I could give one example. An area of the city I used to live some years ago, Horfield. Horfield is classed as being in Bristol. Though where I lived was very very close to the border with Filton, which is classed as South Gloucestshire. So if I wanted to go shopping at Abbey Wood Retail Park where there are large Asda and Sainsbury's Supermarkets along with other stores such as Poundland and B & M, which is barely only about 1 and a half miles away, officially under these new Tiered restrictions I wouldn't be allowed to, as I'd be crossing from a Tier 2 area to a Tier 3 area! In a more extreme example, if I wanted to go just to the local group of shops up Filton Avenue which is just barely about 1/4 a mile away, I also wouldn't be allowed to for the same reasons! This Google Street View photo here demonstrates this. The group of shops is just about visible on the horizon there on the left hand side. There is the Welcome to Filton signpost. And I was living just shortly before that signpost. https://www.google.com/maps/@51.499...4!1s83qL1iW4tG3Bilk-jbh4Cg!2e0!7i13312!8i6656

And on the flip side of that, those people living in Filton which is a Tier 3 area wouldn't officially be allowed to travel into Broadmead/Central Bristol to go shopping, as they'd be crossing from a Tier 3 area to a Tier 2 area!

It's crazy! And like something from some futuristic sci-fi film! Never thought I would ever see anything like this happening in my lifetime. However in the case of examples like this in Bristol, I don't think too many people are sticking strictly to these rules.

That said though, whilst Bristol and North Somerset were lucky enough to be downgraded from Tier 3 to Tier 2, come the tiering reviews on 30th December I am expecting(though not wishing) that they'll be upgraded back to Tier 3 again! Because cases and infection rates are rising again. It looks like they'll both be over 200 per 100,000 again by then, and that may be over the threshold as being allowed to be in Tier 2!

A Hot Yoga studio I used to goto in Bristol a few years, I still receive email news updates from. They have had to close(again!!) from last month. But as Bristol is back in Tier 2 again, they say they will be opening again after the Christmas break on 29th December. Wouldn't be too surprised if due to the tiering review, that come 30th December they'll send another email saying they have to close again from New Year's Eve or New Year's Day until further notice! All these businesses having to keep opening and closing every few weeks due to this crazy lockdown system the government has implemented, is not doing them any good atall.

Come 30th December, I can also see a number more areas upgraded from Tier 2 to Tier 3, and probably more areas upgraded from Tier 3 to the dreaded Tier 4. New Year's Day is not going to be good atall for many, and I don't think many people in the UK will be celebrating and in a good mood this New Year's Eve.

There is no law which prevents people crossing tier boundaries to go shopping. That is only guidance, which can be ignored.

 

[The Ham]

Can I propose a less tin-hatted explanation?

Ours is simply a very easy border to close. You know, being an island and all.

Indeed, likewise people can't travel direct to the Republic of Ireland by ferry, but try it via Northern Ireland and it's fine (well you'll not likely be stopped at the boarder).

 

[trainophile]

Some idiot bus drivers could not care less
last week we took a bus from Newport to Ryde
There was a double decker and a single decker and lots of school kids queueing behind us
The imbecele driving the double decker asked us to go on the bus behind which we did and then herded all the school kids on the single decker as well leaving his upstairs empty
The school kids sat behind us on the back 2 rows crammed in like sardines

Were they the same route number? When we were there there were at least two, maybe more, different services between Ryde and Newport, one taking about half an hour longer than the other. Had to be careful to get on the more direct one.

 

[Domh245]

This may be true but is fairly meaningless as you have no idea if they would have died anyway.
It does not say 59,791 people would be alive a week later if they had not caught COVID

It doesn't no, but the fact that there hasn't been any significant 'harvesting' effect does show that a lot of the people who've died of or with covid weren't quite on deaths door.

 

[43096]

I'm rather hoping he means a return to normality by Easter!

March: "12 weeks to beat the virus"
Followed by: "Over by Christmas"
5 days ago: "It would be inhuman to cancel Christmas"
3 days ago: Christmas cancelled

Don't know about you, but my confidence level on anything he says is 0%.

 

[Crossover]

Indeed, likewise people can't travel direct to the Republic of Ireland by ferry, but try it via Northern Ireland and it's fine (well you'll not likely be stopped at the boarder).

But then, if the Government etc. reckon that is what is happening, it will be their new excuse for cases not decreasing and not anything to do with ineptitude etc.

 

[C J Snarzell]

I had to chuckle at the you tube video of Matt Hancock doing a swoon on the bench in the Common's yesterday with comparisons made to Woody from Toy Story. Hancock really does look like a chap in burnout mode now.

CJ

 

[Freightmaster]

If I could give one example. An area of the city I used to live some years ago, Horfield. Horfield is classed as being in Bristol. Though where I lived was very very close to the border with Filton, which is classed as South Gloucestshire. So if I wanted to go shopping at Abbey Wood Retail Park where there are large Asda and Sainsbury's Supermarkets along with other stores such as Poundland and B & M, which is barely only about 1 and a half miles away, officially under these new Tiered restrictions I wouldn't be allowed to, as I'd be crossing from a Tier 2 area to a Tier 3 area! In a more extreme example, if I wanted to go just to the local group of shops up Filton Avenue which is just barely about 1/4 a mile away...
And on the flip side of that, those people living in Filton which is a Tier 3 area wouldn't officially be allowed to travel into Broadmead/Central Bristol to go shopping, as they'd be crossing from a Tier 3 area to a Tier 2 area!

It's crazy! And like something from some futuristic sci-fi film! Never thought I would ever see anything like this happening in my lifetime.

Like this...?

(video clip is a trailer for the movie 'Songbird' set in a future Los Angeles ravaged by the Covid23 strain of Coronavirus)






MARK

 

[DB]

March: "12 weeks to beat the virus"
Followed by: "Over by Christmas"
5 days ago: "It would be inhuman to cancel Christmas"
3 days ago: Christmas cancelled

Don't know about you, but my confidence level on anything he says is 0%.

Don't forget "significant normality by November"

 

[The Ham]

Don't forget "significant normality by November"

To be fair, for what we did in 2020 November was significantly normal (i.e. in lockdown).

 

[philjo]

It could strongly be argued that once everyone over 75 (possiblely 70), and others at particular risk, have been vaccinated there is no need for the tiers at all.

The article on the front page and continuing on page 2 of today’s Daily Telegraph (21/12) quotes a Whitehall source as saying that the majority of the population aged 50 and over have to be vaccinated before any consideration can be given to relaxing the tiers.

Access Restricted

 

[DB]

The article on the front page and continuing on page 2 of today’s Daily Telegraph (21/12) quotes a Whitehall source as saying that the majority of the population aged 50 and over have to be vaccinated before any consideration can be given to relaxing the tiers.

Access Restricted

Which is pretty ridiculous, given how high the average age of people who die with covid.

 

[brad465]

The article on the front page and continuing on page 2 of today’s Daily Telegraph (21/12) quotes a Whitehall source as saying that the majority of the population aged 50 and over have to be vaccinated before any consideration can be given to relaxing the tiers.

Access Restricted

If insanity and public resentment hasn't kicked in well before then as a society we're screwed (I suspect the CRG in the Tory party will be vocally livid from the off however).

 

[Cdd89]

I look forward to watching how quickly the goalposts shift to “it was never about protecting the NHS”.

Fortunately I don’t see this flying, a lot of my friends and colleagues who still broadly support the restrictions only do so because of the risk to the highly vulnerable. It will also become politically acceptable to voice opposition to restrictions without being stigmatised as a granny killer, and I firmly believe a majority of people are not more vocal for that reason alone. Some hefty tax rises ought to help in mobilising that sentiment.

Pro lockdown arguments to watch out for:

• “The vaccine isn’t 100% effective, what about the minority of elderly...”
• “What about the risk of Long Covid”
• “The NHS is catching up on its backlog of low-priority procedures and has lower capacity”
• “We can’t risk uncontrolled spread leading to another dangerous mutant strain”
• “Over 5 million young people are living with undiagnosed conditions”
• “It wouldn’t be right to kill people so close to them getting the vaccine, 3 more weeks”
• “It isn’t safe out there yet”
• “If we get back to normal too easily then too many younger people will refuse the vaccine”
• “Unlocking now would lead to over 1000 deaths every month”
• “There’s no rush to get back to the old normal, the more relaxed pace of life is better for many”
• “We must do everything possible to limit the chance of new infections in hospitals from younger admissions”
• “We still need more time to know the long term effect of the vaccine in case rates”
• “Herd Immunity can never be encouraged even among the less vulnerable”
• “We cannot sacrifice the young to rush society back to normal”
• “We’ve all waited so long and come too far to blow it now”

(Someone else can come up with the counter arguments to all these fallacies!)

 

[Hardcastle]

Just seen this on the BBC Live News page:

PM: We can look forward to a different world by Easter

Sounds ominous - I wonder what devious plan he has to ruin the country even more by Easter?

Possibly it will look different once he has resigned & gone by Easter i struggle to imagine what other more damage can be done.

 

[DB]

Possibly it will look different once he has resigned & gone by Easter i struggle to imagine what other more damage can be done.

Never assume that they won't find new depths to sink to!

 

[bramling]

Possibly it will look different once he has resigned & gone by Easter i struggle to imagine what other more damage can be done.

Let’s hope he’s gone by then. Trouble is, as some on here have intimated, who on earth replaces him?

Sunak has been conspicuously quiet recently. It seems like even he’s given up now.

 

[Cowley]

Sunak has been conspicuously quiet recently. It seems like even he’s given up now.

Surely just biding his time at the moment?
That said we probably need to discuss that sort of stuff in this thread really: https://www.railforums.co.uk/threads/my-thoughts-on-boris-strategy.212452/

 

[Pete_uk]

Just have a read of Mumsnet "AIBU" Thread

Oh dear, be careful doing things like that.

Who's going to put 10p on a national lockdown in January to slow the explosion in cases?

 

[DelayRepay]

Who's going to put 10p on a national lockdown in January to slow the explosion in cases?

I believe a national lockdown would require a vote in parliament, so I doubt we will see one.

Instead I think we will see the whole of England, except for the Scilly Isles moved to Tier 4.