New 4-tier system for England

[yorksrob]

Given the crowding on public transport, perhaps the film could be called "Mutiny on the Buses"

 

[adc82140]

Mass vaccination could mean anything, that's why he's used that term because it's totally non committal. Same as mass testing has been used as term even when talking about just a few hundred.

If the Oxford vaccine is approved next week, we could be doing "mass vaccination" by the week after. Hancock's got his backside well and truly covered on this one.

 

[6862]

If the Oxford vaccine is approved next week, we could be doing "mass vaccination" by the week after. Hancock's got his backside well and truly covered on this one.

But even if mass roll out does start that soon, after what the government have done to us in recent days we can say for definite that they won't be removing any restrictions any later than they can get away with.

 

[adc82140]

Lots of European countries are enforcing travel bans from the UK. This is rather convenient leading up to a probable no deal Brexit. Boris can now blame disruption on the "mutant", which they've known about since September, rather than his own incompetence.

 

[Richard Scott]

Lots of European countries are enforcing travel bans from the UK. This is rather convenient leading up to a probable no deal Brexit. Boris can now blame disruption on the "mutant", which they've known about since September, rather than his own incompetence.

The bloke is a complete arrogant buffoon as has seemingly ruined everything I enjoy doing managing to wreck it for many others in the process. Has got to be the worst prime minister this country has had?

 

[221101 Voyager]

The bloke is a complete arrogant buffoon as has seemingly ruined everything I enjoy doing managing to wreck it for many others in the process. Has got to be the worst prime minister this country has had?

Not being funny, but has any PM had to deal with something like this before?

To be honest, Boris has made so many major mistakes, I don't like him much now.

Saying that, would Labour have been any better? Probably not.

My biggest issue relating to Boris with Covid is that it has all been a case of too little too late, all decisions are last minute or seriously flawed hence we find ourselves 10x worse off than we were in March.

Last night's announcement really backfired! With those scenes of pre-covid like passenger numbers in the major stations and really busy roads, I couldn't believe what I saw.

All I can say is that 2021 will probably be the worst year for most of us so far. I can't see us making any real progress until at least 2022, as all we've had so far has been going backwards with higher case numbers rather than going forwards and lowering case numbers.

I also think it will be a very long time before mass vaccination will actually help as we are only at around 350,000 people. That is nothing when you have a population of 68 million. Even if 35 million had it at this point, thats is only just over 50% of the population so it's going to be a long time before millions have had it, that's assuming anybody wants to. I'm personally not sure I'd want something that has been rushed out.

 

[Richard Scott]

Not being funny, but has any PM had to deal with something like this before?

To be honest, Boris has made so many major mistakes, I don't like him much now.

Saying that, would Labour have been any better? Probably not.

I would think a couple of world wars would eclipse this. This is just useless leadership and lack of intelligence and failing to stick to a decision.
At least if labour were in we may (use term loosely although possibly an unintended pun) have a half decent opposition. At the moment they are just as useless, don't oppose anything or just want more restrictions. Saying that Tories have a huge majority doesn't wash, can still be a decent opposition and offer sensible alternatives. Surely they can see the mess the country is now in, where does it end, tier 76?!! It's a joke, just not a funny one.

 

[DB]

I would think a couple of world wars would eclipse this. This is just useless leadership and lack of intelligence and failing to stick to a decision.
At least if labour were in we may (use term loosely although possibly an unintended pun) have a half decent opposition. At the moment they are just as useless, don't oppose anything or just want more restrictions. Saying that Tories have a huge majority doesn't wash, can still be a decent opposition and offer sensible alternatives. Surely they can see the mess the country is now in, where does it end, tier 76?!! It's a joke, just not a funny one.

If the opposition actually opposed, things might be difference - the increasing number of backbench Tory MPs who are openly critical of government policy means that if the government couldn't rely on Labour either backing them or abstaining then they might have difficulty getting their measures through the commons, even with the large majority.

 

[221101 Voyager]

I would think a couple of world wars would eclipse this. This is just useless leadership and lack of intelligence and failing to stick to a decision.
At least if labour were in we may (use term loosely although possibly an unintended pun) have a half decent opposition. At the moment they are just as useless, don't oppose anything or just want more restrictions. Saying that Tories have a huge majority doesn't wash, can still be a decent opposition and offer sensible alternatives. Surely they can see the mess the country is now in, where does it end, tier 76?!! It's a joke, just not a funny one.

2 world wars are very different to Covid.

I'm not denying how challenging two world wars were but, at least when the war was over it was over. Whereas Covid will never be completely eliminated, it will popup in small numbers just like normal flus do I suppose.

I agree with the useless leadership point of view, spot on.

Tier 76? People can even understand tier 1-4!

I think the tier system was a stupid idea, who cares about 1, 2, 3 or 4? They're just numbers.

Why didn't they class it in risk instead, eg: Low, Moderate, High and Severe? The words at least mean something as opposed to random numbers with a load of recommendations people don't understand or know about.

 

[Yew]

I would think a couple of world wars would eclipse this. This is just useless leadership and lack of intelligence and failing to stick to a decision.
At least if labour were in we may (use term loosely although possibly an unintended pun) have a half decent opposition. At the moment they are just as useless, don't oppose anything or just want more restrictions. Saying that Tories have a huge majority doesn't wash, can still be a decent opposition and offer sensible alternatives. Surely they can see the mess the country is now in, where does it end, tier 76?!! It's a joke, just not a funny one.

Indeed, I struggle to see the Daily Mail giving Jeremy Corbyn an easy ride for locking everyone up and borrowing loads of money to emulate the techniques of the Communist Chinese...

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 20 Dec 2020 ==

Why didn't they class it in risk instead, eg: Low, Moderate, High and Severe? The words at least mean something as opposed to random numbers with a load of recommendations people don't understand or know about.

Because they'd have to use scarier names, like the terror threat level, so that they lose all significance.

 

[221101 Voyager]

Because they'd have to use scarier names, like the terror threat level, so that they lose all significance.

How about -

Terror threat levels of -

1 - You might die
2 - You will die in 7 days
3 - You will die in 3 days
4 - You are doomed, certain death in less than 24 hours.

Is that the sort of thing you was thinking of @Yew ?

 

[DB]

Indeed, I struggle to see the Daily Mail giving Jeremy Corbyn an easy ride for locking everyone up and borrowing loads of money to emulate the techniques of the Communist Chinese...

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 20 Dec 2020 ==


Because they'd have to use scarier names, like the terror threat level, so that they lose all significance.

Quite - although even the Daily Mail has published some pretty critical articles in recent months, as has the Telegraph (although probably nowhere near as critical as they would have done with a Labour government). The same can't be said for the Guardian, which I've now completely stopped reading because of its pro-restrictions agenda.

As regards names, we obviously can't have low, hence the lowest tier started at 'Medium threat level'. No doubt Low would be seen to underplay the deadly threat to human existence which the Deadly Killer Virus poses...

 

[43096]

Saying that, would Labour have been any better? Probably not.

Starmer would have to remove the fence post that is firmly rammed up his backside first.

 

[Domh245]

Why didn't they class it in risk instead, eg: Low, Moderate, High and Severe? The words at least mean something as opposed to random numbers with a load of recommendations people don't understand or know about.

All the tiers do have non-numerical names as well - 1 is "medium alert", 2 is "high alert", 3 is "very high alert" and 4 is "stay at home"

The beeb hasn't apparently got the name of tier 4 yet, which makes this graphic oddly amusing.

I might start using 'tier x' in place of superlatives in future

 

[TUC]

My nephew said the windows had been sealed shut over the summer, he said it was to prevent suicides by jumping out the window but of course that’s bull because there’s other ways to do that.

A uni housing officer told him personally that it was to stop the virus getting in, so he’s been told two different things

The notion of sealing windows to stop Covid-19 'getting in' is so against every piece of guidance that it's safe to say that either the member of staff or the halls' management don't understand science and are talking dangerous nonsense.

 

[221101 Voyager]

Starmer would have to remove the fence post that is firmly rammed up his backside first.

LOL!

All the tiers do have non-numerical names as well - 1 is "medium alert", 2 is "high alert", 3 is "very high alert" and 4 is "stay at home"

The beeb hasn't apparently got the name of tier 4 yet, which makes this graphic oddly amusing.

I might start using 'tier x' in place of superlatives in future

I know that about the names of each tier.

I also find it amusing how tier 4 does not really have a proper name! Just shows how little thought they have put into it.

I pretty much see tier 4 as lockdown in all but name really.

 

[C J Snarzell]

Starmer would have to remove the fence post that is firmly rammed up his backside first.

I do think Kier Starmer may have handled this marginally better than Boris Johnson if he was leading the Country. However, if we had the likes of Angela Rayner or Lisa Nandy in roles as Chancellor or Health Secretary we would have been in a complete world of pain a long time ago.

CJ

 

[RomeoCharlie71]

Yeah, I think the NHS Covid app refers to tier 4 as "Stay at Home"?

 

[peters]

Not being funny, but has any PM had to deal with something like this before?

Yes - David Lloyd George who also had something called WWI to deal with at the same time!

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 20 Dec 2020 ==

Lots of European countries are enforcing travel bans from the UK.

Including The Netherlands who apparently had the mutant virus before us!

 

[Paul_10]

Well over 35,000 cases today on what is usually a lower reporting of cases day. 11,000 of them in London alone, this is just the worst case scenario we could have and it looks a long long way back to any sort of normal.

The figures next week could be quite shocking by mid week potentially.

 

[adc82140]

Well over 35,000 cases today on what is usually a lower reporting of cases day. 11,000 of them in London alone, this is just the worst case scenario we could have and it looks a long long way back to any sort of normal.

The figures next week could be quite shocking by mid week potentially.

No. The worst case scenario would be increasing cases and no vaccine.

In any case the vast vast majority of infections will make a complete recovery, like me. And I'm slightly overweight, so considered "at risk".

We are better at treating this, deaths have flatlined. Hospital occupancy is actually less than this time last year. Demand is very localised, if demand does rise then the Nightingales are there, as well as the ability to transfer patients elsewhere in the country.

 

[DB]

No. The worst case scenario would be increasing cases and no vaccine.

It also depends on the proportion of hospitalisations and deaths, which may or may not be the same with this slightly variant strain.

Plus of course it is related to testing capacity - the more who are tested, the more who are found.

 

[peters]

No. The worst case scenario would be increasing cases and no vaccine.

Surely worst case scenario is people who have been vaccinated becoming ill from a form of the virus.

 

[bramling]

The bloke is a complete arrogant buffoon as has seemingly ruined everything I enjoy doing managing to wreck it for many others in the process. Has got to be the worst prime minister this country has had?

Hard to say worst ever, but certainly worst in my life time.

 

[adc82140]

It also depends on the proportion of hospitalisations and deaths, which may or may not be the same with this slightly variant strain.

Plus of course it is related to testing capacity - the more who are tested, the more who are found.

Good point. Mass testing has started in London and the South East, has it not?

 

[DustyBin]

The notion of sealing windows to stop Covid-19 'getting in' is so against every piece of guidance that it's safe to say that either the member of staff or the halls' management don't understand science and are talking dangerous nonsense.

Yes it’s a bizarre thing to do! In hospitality the EHO likes to see windows open to help with ventilation....

 

[Skimpot flyer]

Also, if people can't go out and go shopping, they will still go out and not go to those shops. In other words, closing non-essential retail is not an incentive for people to stay at home, rendering it pointless as well as expensive to the economy.

Well said.

 

[hwl]

Minutes of the Friday morning NREVTAG meeting:

https://khub.net/documents/135939561/338928724/SARS-CoV-2+variant+under+investigation%2C+meeting+minutes.pdf/962e866b-161f-2fd5-1030-32b6ab467896?t=1608470511452

Brief summary of NERVTAG opinion - signed off by Chair.
• The committee received and considered two documents:
o The PHE document ‘New evidence on VUI-202012/01 dated 18 December
o Ct monitoring data from ONS/Oxford University COVID-19 Infection Survey
o Bonsall paper: Early analysis of a potential link between viral load and the N501Y mutation in the SARS-CoV-2 spike protein

• Four analytic approaches were reviewed regarding the transmissibility of VUI-202012/01
o Growth rate from genomic data: which suggest a growth rate of VUI-202012/01 that that is 71% (95%CI: 67%-75%) higher than other variants.
o Studies of correlation between R-values and detection of the variant: which suggest an absolute increase in the R-value of between 0.39 to 0.93.

o PCR ct values: which suggest a decrease of ct value of around 2 associated with the new variant.
o Viral load inferred from number of unique genome reads: which suggests 0.5 increase in median log10 inferred viral load in Y501 versus N501.

• It was noted that variations in observed ct values can change with epidemiology since the stage of illness at which infection is detected can vary with incidence of cases, awareness of transmission, and the availability of tests.
• It was noted that VUI-202012/01 can be challenging to sequence so estimates of frequency of this variant may be underestimates.
• It was noted that whilst previous variants have successfully emerged in periods of low prevalence without clear evidence of having a selective advantage, the emergence and subsequent dominance of VUI-202012/01 in a period of relatively high prevalence suggests VUI-202012/01 does have a selective advantage over other variants.
• It was noted that VUI-202012/01 has demonstrated exponential growth during a period when national lockdown measures were in place.
• In summary, NERVTAG has moderate confidence that VUI-202012/01 demonstrates a substantial increase in transmissibility compared to other variants.
• NERVTAG concluded that there are currently insufficient data to draw any conclusion on:

o Underlying mechanism of increased transmissibility (e.g. increased viral load, tissue distribution of virus replication, serial interval etc) 3

o The age distribution of cases o Disease severity: 4 deaths in around 1000 cases have been identified but further work is needed to compare this fatality rate with comparable data sets.

o Antigenic escape. The location of the mutations in the receptor binding domain of the spike glycoprotein raises the possibility that this variant is antigenically distinct from prior variants. Four probable reinfections have been identified amongst 915 subjects with this variant but further work is needed to compare this reinfection rate with comparable data sets.

• The committee discussed the geographic extent of spread of the variant: o Within the UK, the variant is concentrated in the London, South East and East of England but has been detected in various parts of the UK.

o Few cases of this variant have been reported internationally but one confirmed export from the UK to Australia has been reported. It was noted that other countries have lower sequencing capability than the UK.

• NERVTAG endorsed the actions proposed by PHE and in addition noted that:
o Better comparative data on reinfection, readmission and case fatality rates will be available next week. o Better data on the age distribution of infections with this variant will be available next week.
o In vitro data on ability of convalescent and post-immunisation sera neutralising capability against this variant will take at least a further week.

• Work is ongoing to evaluate the ability of Lateral Flow Devices to detect VUI-202012/01.
• NERVTAG recommends that a joint NERVTAG-SPI-M subgroup of SAGE is convened to provide further advice on risk and risk mitigation measures for VUI202012/01.

 

[43096]

• In summary, NERVTAG has moderate confidence that VUI-202012/01 demonstrates a substantial increase in transmissibility compared to other variants.

Well well well. "Moderate confidence". Based on the last 8 months, that means "we don't really know".

 

[Ianno87]

Well well well. "Moderate confidence". Based on the last 8 months, that means "we don't really know".

Understand some basic statistical rigour before posting, please.

"Confidence" in statistical terms means the strength of correlation between two sets of data, in other words the level of certainty as to whether the correlation is strong enough to conclude whether there is a firm link or not.