New 4-tier system for England

[43096]

The government aim is 2million doses a week with the Oxford /AZ vaccine, so equivalent to 4.3m receiving 2 doses in an average month.
So almost till then end of 2021 to roll out to all adults if the take up is 100%.

With the new variant higher vaccination levels will be needed.

And you believe the NHS is capable of that? Testing for the virus has been such a success, hasn’t it.

 

[peters]

I've said before that I suspect some of the Tier level decision making is based on contingency planning for NHS hospitals.

People living in places like Glossop, Buxton, New Mills (Derbyshire High Peak) will end up being admitted to the likes of Stepping Hill or Tameside Hospitals which are Greater Manchester hospitals.

I'm not sure if it's the intention of your post but the reply you gave strengthens the case against a universal Greater Manchester tier. Using that argument even if all of Greater Manchester had low infection rates then they need to consider a different tier level for Stockport and Tameside if there's a high number of cases in High Peak reducing capacity at those hospitals.

 

[The Ham]

Seeing as the number of people who've died with Covid as the underlying cause (ie from, not with) is 59,791 out of 68,924 recorded by the ONS, I think the point generally stands. Only cancer has singularly killed more people in the same period

Which still shows that we'd be at 90% of the population having been infected at 0.1% and 45% of the population at 0.2%, which at 400 deaths a day would take 50 days to reach 60% of the population (8th February). With rates still rising then either that end date is brought forwards or a higher percentage get infected.

If you look at the figures for the USA with 315,000 deaths 0.1% is 315 million infections (out of a population of 328 million), even at 0.2% that's 157 million infections (48% of the population) at 3,000/day that's adding 1.5 million cases a day. If there's no rise is cases that's just 28 days to reach 60% of the population.

 

[TUC]

So public transport users are second class citizens now?

No, but the fact public transport is not available is no reason to stop those with their own transport from making use of it.

 

[rcro]

I'm not sure if it's the intention of your post but the reply you gave strengthens the case against a universal Greater Manchester tier. Using that argument even if all of Greater Manchester had low infection rates then they need to consider a different tier level for Stockport and Tameside if there's a high number of cases in High Peak reducing capacity at those hospitals.

Maybe it does when it suits them. Hereford was dropped to tier 1 despite 2/3 of its catchment area being Wales (even Powys has “high” case rates now) - and there’s still a bit of an unknown as to how much it’s going to be affected by Abergavenny hospital’s downgrading last month. I think the end result ends up as a domino effect with Cheltenham and Worcester having to take even more Hereford patients than they already do - and I thought this was a lot of the argument why the public health officer didn’t want the change. Political decision?

The arguments with death rates with/of COVID seems to go round in circles all the time. The true death rate from COVID will not be known for some time as complications after recovering from severe illness - such as cystic fibrosis - increase risk of death from any subsequent infection after the 28 days have ended. The eye should be on all excess deaths - be it COVID, post covid, cancer, heart, suicide - and I think then the 66,000 is just the tip of the iceberg, and this winter and next year is when that fallout starts to land.

 

[NorthOxonian]

I've said before that I suspect some of the Tier level decision making is based on contingency planning for NHS hospitals.

People living in places like Glossop, Buxton, New Mills (Derbyshire High Peak) will end up being admitted to the likes of Stepping Hill or Tameside Hospitals which are Greater Manchester hospitals.

Ribble Valley in Lancashire has very low Covid rates too - again they are Tier 3, but the nearest hospitals are Blackburn and Preston that had seen high rates of infection.

CJ

However, Barrow, South Lakeland, and Lancaster all use the same hospitals. The former two are in Tier 2 but the latter is in Tier 3, despite them all having fairly similar case numbers in the last month or so. The only difference is Lancaster is classed as Lancashire and Barrow/S. Lakeland is classed as Cumbria.

 

[hwl]

What do you mean he's just seen them? Kent as had a serious problem for a few weeks but the government has been slow to react to that,

They got a report with lots better data on the new strain on Friday, that report scared that living daylight out of them.

The new strain is already in Denmark, France and South Africa. The high number of individual mutations (17?) in the new variant in a single step possibly suggests the virus had a long time to mutate in a immunocompromised patient being treated in hospital before escaping into community.

 

[TUC]

You are only supposed to leave home for a reason listed in the guidance.

If you are leaving home for a reason that is permissible, then you are acting lawfully, but if it is a reason that is not permissible, that is unlawful.

For people living in those areas, it's similar to the November lockdown

If the regulations are constructed the same way as previous ones (i.e. 'without reasonable excuse') then the examples set out in the guidance can only be examples of what is reasonable, not an exhaustive list.

 

[Yew]

They got a report with lots better data on the new strain on Friday, that report scared that living daylight out of them.

The new strain is already in Denmark, France and South Africa. The high number of individual mutations (17?) in the new variant in a single step possibly suggests the virus had a long time to mutate in a immunocompromised patient being treated in hospital before escaping into community.

Indeed, I'm struggling to find the scientific paper where this is discussed.

 

[NorthKent1989]

I’m utterly angry at this, We need to live with virus eventually and tanking the economy, jobs, small businesses and mental health isn’t the way forward.

Someone used the term Locktivists earlier, great term I’m using it, Locktivists emotionally blackmail is with “my 86 year old granny will die” at the same time not giving a toss if a student who has been isolated could do the worst thing to themselves possible, not caring if people will spend Xmas on their own and get extremely self righteous and pious.

We can’t hide away forever, and unfortunately people die, it’s the one guarantee in life, we can die in any number of ways, my aunt was knocked of her bike in June, and could have died, thankfully she didn’t but had a fractured knee, the NHS we all clapped like seals for left her on a plastic seat for six hours, she couldn’t charge her phone and she was alone and in pain and could have died from an unknown injury being left like that.

Everyday is a risk, but I want to work again, see my family and friends again and live life again, if this is unpopular then there’s nothing I can do, but it’s how I feel and I’m sure millions feel the same way too

 

[Darandio]

They got a report with lots better data on the new strain on Friday, that report scared that living daylight out of them.

The new strain is already in Denmark, France and South Africa. The high number of individual mutations (17?) in the new variant in a single step possibly suggests the virus had a long time to mutate in a immunocompromised patient being treated in hospital before escaping into community.

Yet announced tough new measures yesterday related to this strain but could only give out figures to the public based on guesswork and with a whole load of caveats that could actually be wrong (again).

 

[Bantamzen]

The government aim is 2million doses a week with the Oxford /AZ vaccine, so equivalent to 4.3m receiving 2 doses in an average month.
So almost till then end of 2021 to roll out to all adults if the take up is 100%.

With the new variant higher vaccination levels will be needed.

So with potentially 67 million people to vaccinate, how long you you suppose that will take? Also on what do you base your assumption that the new variant will need higher levels of vaccination?

No, he's just seen the numbers and they scared the living daylights out of him!
The new variant has just rewritten all the assumptions than people previously had.

What assumptions? Again would you care to expand, as you seem to have some inside knowledge on this?

 

[NorthKent1989]

Well, I am a student taking A Level English Language, English Literature and Drama and I completely refute this. A good third of Drama practical performances which cannot be rehearsed at home, let alone performed alongside other group members at home.

The other two might not require physically being in a classroom to some but my studies went to pot in lockdown as I lack the motivation and self-discipline to work at home. I find it incredibly hard to concentrate at home with all of my things distracting me and as a result procrastinate, which leads to bad A Levels in the summer.

Being absent from my friends and normal life at sixth form played havoc with my mental health, to the point where I was almost a different person. I need not tell you I wasn’t the only one. When the school re-opened for me I appreciated it so much more than I did before.

Being in school may not matter for some but it is very important for me and many others. We take good social distancing measures and all of Year 13 are in a bubble, as are other year groups. There have been minimal cases of COVID in the 1000ish student in the school and sixth form. This is why I am thankful that Mr Johnson has not closed them or let them being affected by these tiers.

I study a drama degree and I can wholeheartedly agree that it’s impossible to do online.

I feel so sorry for young people like you, it’s unfair you’ve been dumped on and blamed, I’m 31 and I have had some very bad days, yes zoom calls are there but they can never replace the real social interactions

 

[Megafuss]

No, but the fact public transport is not available is no reason to stop those with their own transport from making use of it.

I agree those that can travel should make use of the facility. But it's simply unfair. However, the point I was making is that those without cars are discriminated against forcing lonliness on people - even in proper support bubbles simply because they do not drive.

 

[hwl]

Indeed, I'm struggling to find the scientific paper where this is discussed.

The internal government report from Friday - not public. The PHE report analysed transmission rates of the new strain along with modelling of the implications.

Or higher levels of mutation in hospitalised immunocompromised patients.? if the latter then here is an example in NEJM earlier this month:

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMc2031364

 

[LightBlueLine]

I do apologise if this question has already been asked/answered, but was last night's travelling really as bad as is being made out in the press / on social media? I am only seeing one video, from one angle, from one station - St Pancras.

Are we sure there wasn't any kind of disruption, or maybe a cancellation that caused some issues locally at STP?

Are there any other similar videos (or indeed, verified claims) that the other London termini were experiencing the same increased traffic?

 

[NorthKent1989]

What about those who are suffering due to loss of livelihoods, loneliness and many other factors and/or the harmful effects on their mental health?

Let's not forget the average age of a death with Covid is over 80, while younger people are at far more risk of factors such as suicide than Covid.

We have our priorities all wrong

Thank you!

It’s not selfish to put the younger generations first after all it’ll be them paying for three lockdowns until they become grandparents themselves!

I’m worried that the mental health pandemic isn’t being reported at all it’s quite unnerving, my nephew is 20 and his halls can’t open windows because of the virus! I was so made when I heard that, I told him to come back home and stay with his family and do uni next year instead.

 

[TUC]

Thank you!

It’s not selfish to put the younger generations first after all it’ll be them paying for three lockdowns until they become grandparents themselves!

I’m worried that the mental health pandemic isn’t being reported at all it’s quite unnerving, my nephew is 20 and his halls can’t open windows because of the virus! I was so made when I heard that, I told him to come back home and stay with his family and do uni next year instead.

That does not make sense. The usual advice is very much to open windows.

 

[Jamesrob637]

I do apologise if this question has already been asked/answered, but was last night's travelling really as bad as is being made out in the press / on social media? I am only seeing one video, from one angle, from one station - St Pancras.

Are we sure there wasn't any kind of disruption, or maybe a cancellation that caused some issues locally at STP?

Are there any other similar videos (or indeed, verified claims) that the other London termini were experiencing the same increased traffic?

It looked pretty bad aye. What if Boris had announced for it to kick in at midnight tonight? Then people would have been distributed among the remaining trains yesterday evening and all of today. Surely that would've been somewhat more agreeable plus maybe given TOCs a (small) opportunity to lengthen (some) trains today in anticipation of higher passenger numbers?

 

[hwl]

So with potentially 67 million people to vaccinate, how long you you suppose that will take? Also on what do you base your assumption that the new variant will need higher levels of vaccination?


What assumptions? Again would you care to expand, as you seem to have some inside knowledge on this?

With the current level of restriction in place and older strains the R was around 1.0 with the new strain in the same circumstances the R is 1.4, this suggest a major uplift in R0 values. Hancock effectively announcing Tier 4 till mass vaccination is well under way (not just vulnerable) suggests that this is also the government thinking.

 

[DustyBin]

So what do you honestly propose then? 67,000 deaths and that is with tight restrictions in place, goodness knows what it would of been if we did the do nothing route.

I do sympathise with people who are struggling through this on a mental health perspective but there's no easy answers to this unprecedented pandemic. Obviously Boris does not want to do this but he's got no option really and I do have elements of sympathy for him but he does not help himself when he attacks the leader of the opposition for wanting Xmas cancelled only for him to do that a few days later.

If you study the graphs, it’s quite possible we’d be in a similar (but admittedly slightly worse) position to that in which we find ourselves. A poster on another forum I use deals with this stuff for a living (data, graphs etc.) and has modelled the ‘no intervention’ scenario. Do I 100% trust what somebody posting on an internet forum says? No I don’t, however nor do I trust the demonstrably inaccurate doomsday predictions (or is that non-predictions?) presented by the government’s advisors. I think we’ve had some success in delaying covid related deaths, but unless they get a highly effective vaccine rolled out very quickly, it will catch up with the vulnerable in the end, sadly.

Seeing as the number of people who've died with Covid as the underlying cause (ie from, not with) is 59,791 out of 68,924 recorded by the ONS, I think the point generally stands. Only cancer has singularly killed more people in the same period

But how do we know it was the underlying cause? All we have is numbers....

 

[kristiang85]

Blooming hell, YouGov's polls are getting worse:

- 74% support the introduction of Tier 4 for parts of England vs just 17% say they are opposed

- 67% support the Christmas rules changes vs 25% opposed

- 61% say gov has badly handled covid Xmas rules vs 33% say they have handled it well

The last one is the only one I can agree with there.

Judging by the reactions to a couple of tweets I put up yesterday decrying the new rules (in replies to news articles so there shouldn't be too much bias), the first two should be reversed at least.

 

[hwl]

I do apologise if this question has already been asked/answered, but was last night's travelling really as bad as is being made out in the press / on social media? I am only seeing one video, from one angle, from one station - St Pancras.

Are we sure there wasn't any kind of disruption, or maybe a cancellation that caused some issues locally at STP?

Are there any other similar videos (or indeed, verified claims) that the other London termini were experiencing the same increased traffic?

M4 traffic was reported a being bad last night.

 

[Yew]

Yet announced tough new measures yesterday related to this strain but could only give out figures to the public based on guesswork and with a whole load of caveats that could actually be wrong (again).

Indeed, one of the key tenets of science is being honest about the certainty of your results.

 

[Envy123]

I do apologise if this question has already been asked/answered, but was last night's travelling really as bad as is being made out in the press / on social media? I am only seeing one video, from one angle, from one station - St Pancras.

Are we sure there wasn't any kind of disruption, or maybe a cancellation that caused some issues locally at STP?

Are there any other similar videos (or indeed, verified claims) that the other London termini were experiencing the same increased traffic?

Heard that Euston and Paddington had the same issues as St Pancras.

 

[The Ham]

And you believe the NHS is capable of that? Testing for the virus has been such a success, hasn’t it.

We achieve about 60% of the entire population in 6 months with the flu vaccine. Given we need 2 doses that's 60% in 12 months, however about 25% of population are under 18.

As such 100% of adults sounds doable.

 

[hwl]

From the guardian:

The new Covid-19 variant was initially identified in a patient in September while further results of tests from them were returned in October, according to an expert advising the government.

Dr Susan Hopkins, Public Health England, told Sky News: “Even then there was nothing to particularly highlight that this was something of major concern as variants come and go.”

In late November, health officials were attempting to understand why parts of northern Kent were not reducing their infections even though major restrictions were in place.
Investigations found there was a cluster that was rapidly spreading, which was called a “variant of interest.”

They found it was spreading into London and Essex and informed the government of this last Friday week. She said they found this week - “with all evidence stacking up” - that the variant was much more transmittable, and the government was informed on Friday.

“We were talking to the government on a daily basis. The results of the modelling on transmissibility all summarised an present on Friday morning by a number of different groups around the country doing that.

That was the first time where all of the evidence came together for New and Emerging Respiratory Virus Threats Group (NERVTAG) to take into account.

 

[Yew]

From the guardian:

Seems to be rather short of a fully peer-reviewed paper though.

 

[yorksrob]

With the current level of restriction in place and older strains the R was around 1.0 with the new strain in the same circumstances the R is 1.4, this suggest a major uplift in R0 values. Hancock effectively announcing Tier 4 till mass vaccination is well under way (not just vulnerable) suggests that this is also the government thinking.

The rise in R value doesn't explain why such restrictions need to be in place once the vulnerable have been vaccinated.

Such restrictions could only really be justified if the virus was a much greater risk of severity to a greater proportion of the population, however this doesn't appear to be the case.

 

[Bantamzen]

With the current level of restriction in place and older strains the R was around 1.0 with the new strain in the same circumstances the R is 1.4, this suggest a major uplift in R0 values. Hancock effectively announcing Tier 4 till mass vaccination is well under way (not just vulnerable) suggests that this is also the government thinking.

The R0 value of the "legacy" virus has been much higher than 1.0 at various times, so I'm really not sure what your point is.