New 4-tier system for England

[DelayRepay]

This. I can appreciate that this is a fast-changing situation, but Johnson's constant habit of avoiding hard decisions until it's too late is getting a bit annoying. Whatever, I'm sure to him all of this will be everyone else's fault ...

This is the point that annoys me most. I have been looking forward to Christmas as a chance to see my family without having to break the law.

I do recognise why we now have different rules. I understand why decisions were made, even if I do not agree with the decisions.

I do not understand what has changed significantly since a few days ago, when Ministers were threatening legal action against councils and schools that decided to move learning online for a few days before Christmas in response to increasing cases in their areas/schools.

I do not understand what has changed significantly since Wednesday when the Prime Minister said that to cancel the Christmas arrangements would be 'inhumane' and 'not right'.

I do not understand why people are making statements on Facebook like 'Christmas isn't cancelled, it will just be a bit different'. For me the difference is I will be at home, on my own, as I have been for most days of the last 9 months.

I do not understand why those who support the restrictions cannot see that, however necessary they believe the rules are, they have come as a huge blow to those of us who are struggling.

 

[Bantamzen]

There's currently been 67,000 deaths recorded as being linked to Covid, at a rate of 0.1% then 67 million people would have been infected in the UK.

Now whilst Covid-19 deaths are any cause of death within 28 days of a positive result (so probably a bit higher than they actual are), it's also true that once we get to 60-70% of the population having been infected then infected rates of infections would be tiny as there would be few people that it could pass to.

Even if some are getting Covid twice and there's an over counting of deaths from Covid we'd easily be in the final days of the problem is the rate was 0.1%.

Even at 0.2% then given the current rates of deaths (489/day) we'd be probably seeing the end of it by the end of January, as we'd rapidly be approaching 60-70% of the population having been infected.

As such I would be doubtful of any sources which made suggestions that anything as low as 0.2% was the actual rate.

It may well be that is the rate for those under a certain age, such as under 65 or under 40, but that then means that the rate is a going to be a lot higher for those in an older group given that 90% of deaths are in those over 65.

67,000 cases with covid, not necessarily because of it.

 

[adc82140]

There's currently been 67,000 deaths recorded as being linked to Covid, at a rate of 0.1% then 67 million people would have been infected in the UK.

Now whilst Covid-19 deaths are any cause of death within 28 days of a positive result (so probably a bit higher than they actual are), it's also true that once we get to 60-70% of the population having been infected then infected rates of infections would be tiny as there would be few people that it could pass to.

Even if some are getting Covid twice and there's an over counting of deaths from Covid we'd easily be in the final days of the problem is the rate was 0.1%.

Even at 0.2% then given the current rates of deaths (489/day) we'd be probably seeing the end of it by the end of January, as we'd rapidly be approaching 60-70% of the population having been infected.

As such I would be doubtful of any sources which made suggestions that anything as low as 0.2% was the actual rate.

It may well be that is the rate for those under a certain age, such as under 65 or under 40, but that then means that the rate is a going to be a lot higher for those in an older group given that 90% of deaths are in those over 65.

What you're not considering is that it has been previously reported that up to 80% of infections are asymptomatic, so will never be tested. Unless you have one of the big 3 symptoms, you can't get a test. Yes there has been limited mass testing, but not enough to really be of note.

 

[C J Snarzell]

The 67,000 deaths and the ones in recent days/weeks are all people with underlining medical conditions. This was mention yet again during a press briefing a few days ago.

Anyone with underlining health problems do need to take extra precautions and two people I know who are in poor health are taking a few extra steps to stay safe.

What I still can't grasp is why inflict suffering on the majority of those with good health who are not at risk of Covid fatality?

It almost feels like Johnson, Valance & Whitty have formed the mindset that ALL the UK population cannot be trusted to stay safe & act sensible around those at risk. Therefore they put us in lockdown (Tier 3 or 4).

CJ

 

[Bantamzen]

The 67,000 deaths and the ones in recent days/weeks are all people with underlining medical conditions. This was mention yet again during a press briefing a few days ago.

Anyone with underlining health problems do need to take extra precautions and two people I know who are in poor health are taking a few extra steps to stay safe.

What I still can't grasp is why inflict suffering on the majority of those with good health who are not at risk of Covid fatality?

It almost feels like Johnson, Valance & Whitty have formed the mindset that ALL the UK population cannot be trusted to stay safe & act sensible around those at risk. Therefore they put us in lockdown (Tier 3 or 4).

CJ

Because it has become politically easier to shove the blame for anything going wrong onto the general public instead of politicians admitting that they have got things wrong.

 

[317 forever]

I have to say I am increasingly of the opinion that the Christmas Bubble should be abandoned.

Firstly, as others have noted, there is absolutely nothing special about December 23rd - 27th. It sends completely the wrong message that it can be so dangerous that you can't visit a restaurant on December 22nd and 28th but in between those dates everything is fine.

Secondly, as this goes for the tier system more generally, is that is will cause people to act more recklessly than if we had a simpler, more sustainable, set of rules. Tell people that they have "5 days off for good behaviour" before being locked inside again for who knows how many months to come and people will take it (and then those in charge will act shocked when they do) For examples of that just look at what happened before Lockdown 2 and in the run-up to entering tier 3 - People see a final chance to do stuff and take it.

It is a terrible decision to have to make...but if the alternative is lockdown 3 in January I know what decision I would take.

Particularly just as the vaccine is starting to be rolled out. Long Christmas stays, some of which will still happen where people refuse to abandon their plans made in good faith, will exacerbate the spread and delay the vaccine roll-out and its effectiveness.

5 days always seemed extreme. How much better it would have been had the government announced a Christmas Day amnesty on social/family meetings but with advice against, then maybe promised to review shortly before Christmas the feasibility of extra days. Then yesterday they could have formally announced that the amnesty will be just for Christmas Day, without the heartless U-turn.

The government created a situation where for different reasons maintaining or scrapping the 5-day amnesty would both be heartless decisions.

 

[bramling]

If the internet existed in the 1940s, would people have been posting on forums about how they don’t agree with going in Anderson shelters when the air raid siren went off?

I think that was personal choice. Even in WW2 we didn’t have people put under house arrest for 4-5 months of a year.

 

[C J Snarzell]

Because it has become politically easier to shove the blame for anything going wrong onto the general public instead of politicians admitting that they have got things wrong.

As Clint Eastwood said in the film Heartbreak Ridge - ''this is a Clusterf**k''.

CJ

 

[adc82140]

I think that was personal choice. Even in WW2 we didn’t have people put under house arrest for 4-5 months of a year.

In fact WW2 was the first time the public heard "keep calm and carry on". Perhaps 2020's motto should be "read Twitter and over react"

 

[Ianno87]

In fact WW2 was the first time the public heard "keep calm and carry on".

Not actually true. The slogan was prepared but never used.

 

[SignallerJohn]

I think that was personal choice. Even in WW2 we didn’t have people put under house arrest for 4-5 months of a year.

Geoffrey down the road leaving his lights on wasn’t the best idea though was it.

 

[Bantamzen]

Geoffrey down the road leaving his lights on wasn’t the best idea though was it.

What's that got to do with this virus? Asking for a friend...

 

[hwl]

This is the point that annoys me most. I have been looking forward to Christmas as a chance to see my family without having to break the law.

I do recognise why we now have different rules. I understand why decisions were made, even if I do not agree with the decisions.

I do not understand what has changed significantly since a few days ago, when Ministers were threatening legal action against councils and schools that decided to move learning online for a few days before Christmas in response to increasing cases in their areas/schools.

I do not understand what has changed significantly since Wednesday when the Prime Minister said that to cancel the Christmas arrangements would be 'inhumane' and 'not right'.

Simple - As Boris said he got the first analysis of the new strain on Friday.

 

[317 forever]

Unfortunately I’ve got no choice because the person that’s supposed to be coming does listen to the rules! Going to be an awful lot of wasted food...

It was incidentally a waste of a lot of people's shopping of presents for the government to wait until late yesterday afternoon to announce the curtailment of the Christmas relaxations.

 

[chris11256]

According to Matt Hancock on sky News this morning, Areas in T4 should expect to stay there until the vaccine has been rolled out.

https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19...y-have-coronavirus-matt-hancock-says-12168124

Mr Hancock said cases have "rocketed" during the last few days and warned keeping the new variant under control until a vaccine has been rolled out would be "very difficult".

"We have really got to get this under control. The cases in the Tier 4 areas have absolutely rocketed in the last few days - the last two weeks or so. We have got a long way to go to solve this," he said.

"Essentially, we have got to get that vaccine rolled out to keep people safe. Given how much faster this new variant spreads it is going to be very difficult to keep it under control until we have the vaccine rolled out.

 

[Megafuss]

Personally I don't have a problem.with the new tier 4, and it should have been an option at the start as almost a deterrent.

What I do have a problem with is the mixing of people only in Christmas Day.

This should apply across the country, no exceptions.

Could you imagine as a car owner a policy whereby you were told that you can meet with close family for one day over Christmas but all the roads in the country were shut at the same time? That is the problem public transport users face on Christmas Day. It's simply disgusting.

 

[317 forever]

If a stay at home message is law then I guess I'll be leaving my mobile phone at home

Mind you, we are told that we must stay at home except to go out for reasons such as unlimited exercise. So, we can be out any time we like for exercise.

 

[hwl]

According to Matt Hancock on sky News this morning, Areas in T4 should expect to stay there until the vaccine has been rolled out.

And used the phrase "mass vaccination" not just the vaccination of the vulnerable.

 

[Bantamzen]

According to Matt Hancock on sky News this morning, Areas in T4 should expect to stay there until the vaccine has been rolled out.

Well that's the South East done for then, its going to take months, maybe even years to fully roll out a vaccine.

 

[Domh245]

Well that's the South East done for then, its going to take months, maybe even years to fully roll out a vaccine.

Indeed - what a lovely early christmas present from the Govt - indefinite lockdown

 

[TUC]

One does have to wonder what the point of restricting seats for social distancing is if the BTP don't help enforce it in situations like last night.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 20 Dec 2020 ==

Personally I don't have a problem.with the new tier 4, and it should have been an option at the start as almost a deterrent.

What I do have a problem with is the mixing of people only in Christmas Day.

This should apply across the country, no exceptions.

Could you imagine as a car owner a policy whereby you were told that you can meet with close family for one day over Christmas but all the roads in the country were shut at the same time? That is the problem public transport users face on Christmas Day. It's simply disgusting.

That seems a peverse logic to say that, because you are not able to meet with others on Christmas Day, no one else should.

 

[bramling]

According to Matt Hancock on sky News this morning, Areas in T4 should expect to stay there until the vaccine has been rolled out.

If Hancock thinks people are going to sit tight indefinitely then he can take a proper running jump. They’re not going to keep dodging civil disobedience forever.

 

[TUC]

Simple - As Boris said he got the first analysis of the new strain on Friday.

And made public statements on Friday which implied the existing arrangements would contine. That's where the lack of integrity/competence is.

 

[cactustwirly]

Well that's the South East done for then, its going to take months, maybe even years to fully roll out a vaccine.

I don't see how that is possible, I'd imagine Boris would be thrown out of no10 very quickly.
I'm sure there are a lot of conservative MPs that are very angry after yesterday's announcement

 

[Megafuss]

One does have to wonder what the point of restricting seats for social distancing is if the BTP don't help enforce it in situations like last night.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 20 Dec 2020 ==


That seems a peverse logic to say that, because you are not able to meet with others on Christmas Day, no one else should.

So public transport users are second class citizens now?

 

[yorksrob]

Particularly just as the vaccine is starting to be rolled out. Long Christmas stays, some of which will still happen where people refuse to abandon their plans made in good faith, will exacerbate the spread and delay the vaccine roll-out and its effectiveness.

5 days always seemed extreme. How much better it would have been had the government announced a Christmas Day amnesty on social/family meetings but with advice against, then maybe promised to review shortly before Christmas the feasibility of extra days. Then yesterday they could have formally announced that the amnesty will be just for Christmas Day, without the heartless U-turn.

The government created a situation where for different reasons maintaining or scrapping the 5-day amnesty would both be heartless decisions.

Completely pointless for those of us who rely on public transport, but never mind.

 

[philosopher]

Simple - As Boris said he got the first analysis of the new strain on Friday.

They knew about this stain in September. If this is the case, it took them a very long time to work out that strain is more transmissible.

I have been keeping an eye on the government Covid stats site and to me it seemed clear that something odd was going in London by the end of November, in that the cases stopped falling but were continuing to fall elsewhere.

 

[The Ham]

67,000 cases with covid, not necessarily because of it.

I did say "linked to" and then explain that a Covid death was any cause of death within 28 days of a test and that we're likely to have over counted the number of deaths (although there's likely to be some early on who weren't counted because of no test).

However that's still going to need to be a lot (about 1/3 or more) for us to still be at the point that 0.1 is still going to be an issue.

Where it may be true that 0.2% is the rate, it's likely that is still end January/mid February before reaching 70% of people and cases start to fall rapidly.

 

[hwl]

Well that's the South East done for then, its going to take months, maybe even years to fully roll out a vaccine.

The government aim is 2million doses a week with the Oxford /AZ vaccine, so equivalent to 4.3m receiving 2 doses in an average month.
So almost till then end of 2021 to roll out to all adults if the take up is 100%.

With the new variant higher vaccination levels will be needed.


== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 20 Dec 2020 ==

They knew about this stain in September. If this is the case, it took them a very long time to work out that strain is more transmissible.

I have been keeping an eye on the government Covid stats site and to me it seemed clear that something odd was going in London by the end of November, in that the cases stopped falling but were continuing to fall elsewhere.

Agreed!
Tier 3 not working in L&SE recently started ringing alarm bells...

 

[yorksrob]

And used the phrase "mass vaccination" not just the vaccination of the vulnerable.

Matt Hancock is clearly living in a dreamworld then. He'll be retired from politics soon.