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CP6 funding cut by £1Bn: Where should the cutbacks occur?

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yorksrob

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The treasury equivalent of the Shell Game. Hyped up announcements of 'Beeching' reinstatements one week while plotting in dark corridors to remove 10% of network enhancements at the same time. So much for the 'build back better' / infrastructure / green agendas. Has the road budget suffered a 10% cut?
While some may see this as reasonable in the current context of rail use this cut will be felt at a time when the trains are full to bursting once again. It won't seem quite so reasonable then. It's cynical.

That said, if they prioritised electrification, lengthening trains will become a lot easier than otherwise anyway, so you're still baking in the potential for capacity enhancement.

Plus, we just don't know to what extent city commuting will come back, so tomorrow's pinch points may be in different places.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: ==

I presume that you are referring to proposed platforms 15 and 16. Not building this expensive white elephant would be a worthwhile saving. The Castlefield problem is best solved by changing its use and removing longer distance passenger services (to Chester/Lancaster/York and beyond) from it.

Funnilly enough, capacity through Manchester is one area I would probably keep in. The inter-regional flows through Manchester aren't so heavily geared towards commuting, and I suspect that they are more likely to bounce back.
 
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Bald Rick

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We know from Scotland that the electrification costs can be vastly cheaper than those of GWML and MML, getting on to EU benchmarks.

We don’t ‘know’ that at all. We do know that Edinburgh to Glasgow electrification was more expensive per km than either of the examples you mention. We also know that Scotland did some very straightforward electrification more cheaply, but the GWML and MML were not simple electrifications.



Does that still work if, once the design and development work is completed, the commitment to put the shovels in gets delayed by some years due to lack of funding? Presumably, if the delay lasts too many years, at some point that design work will have become sufficiently out of date that it will end up being thrown away and re-started from scratch, but I'm not sure what the timescale for that would be before that becomes likely. 2 years? 5 years? 10 years?

There’s no specific timescales, but any project paused for more than about a year would have a design review on restart, essentially to check against any revised standards. This will take a couple of months. Redesign of certain elements might be needed, but likely to be isolated. Full redesign would only be needed if the project changed to deliver different outputs.

A bigger issue is where consents expire. The Met Line extension is a good example there, where the TWA Order has now expired, so if that were to be restarted that whole process must be redone.
 

bluenoxid

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Off the top of my head, Ely and upgrading Bedford-Bletchley feel like two cost savings. Electrification of EWR might as well be binned.
 

Ianno87

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Off the top of my head, Ely and upgrading Bedford-Bletchley feel like two cost savings. Electrification of EWR might as well be binned.

Ely arguably would be a relative priority for its de-carbonisation benefits (freight trains to Felixstowe replacing lorries on the A14)

Isn't EWR electrification not in scope already anyway?
 

Senex

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I presume that you are referring to proposed platforms 15 and 16. Not building this expensive white elephant would be a worthwhile saving. The Castlefield problem is best solved by changing its use and removing longer distance passenger services (to Chester/Lancaster/York and beyond) from it.
Or, alternatively and if it is an either/or question, remove the local services and keep the through-Manchester connection for the longer-distance "fast" passenger services.
 

squizzler

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We don’t ‘know’ that at all. We do know that Edinburgh to Glasgow electrification was more expensive per km than either of the examples you mention. We also know that Scotland did some very straightforward electrification more cheaply, but the GWML and MML were not simple electrifications.
What we do know is that - since the series of debacles that took place in the mid 'teens and was solved with bi-modes - the challenge was thrown down to find ways to make electrification cheaper, and the engineers more than rose to this challenge. This seems to my eyes the the case almost every time - the engineers are more than happy to solve the problems but the procedures and perverse incentives in the industry are not making it easy to capitalise on the innovation.

I still maintain that with the industry review there is an opportunity to align incentives of all parties to drive down enhancement costs. A 10% reduction on CP6 costs actually seems quite doable in light of the cost differentials between our stuff and the EU.

Your observation that subsequent straightforward schemes are cheaper, and those tend to be the leftover ones once the busier (and thus harder) sections of line are done. This suggests the back of the work has been broken and what remains is the easier stuff. This might be relevant to the travel patterns that prevail after the 'rhona.

We will probably no longer be hunting for marginal gains to peak commuter capacity into London. Instead there will be the opportunity to spend the same money on the provincial network where there is more low hanging fruit to be gathered. From a public viewpoint, provincial spending might be more tangible, as the benefits from spending to accommodate an additional train per hour on a line that currently has a service of one tph is more obvious than an additional train per hour on top of the 24 tph (or whatever) going into Waterloo.
 

Ianno87

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Or, alternatively and if it is an either/or question, remove the local services and keep the through-Manchester connection for the longer-distance "fast" passenger services.

The local services shift more passengers.
 

swt_passenger

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Off the top of my head, Ely and upgrading Bedford-Bletchley feel like two cost savings. Electrification of EWR might as well be binned.
Bletchley to Bedford section isn’t really being upgraded in this phase anyway, it’s a fairly regular topic in the main EWR thread...
 

Verulamius

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On the Network Rail website under publications there is an enhancement delivery plan which is supposed to be updated quarterly.

Whilst the latest version for Scotland is September 2020, the England and Wales document is still dated June 2020.
 

Philip

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Whilst it wouldn't make up anywhere near the 1bn shortfall, cut backs could be made to things like repainting and rebranding trains and stations as a start. These aren't important in the scheme of things.
 

Dr Hoo

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Whilst it wouldn't make up anywhere near the 1bn shortfall, cut backs could be made to things like repainting and rebranding trains and stations as a start. These aren't important in the scheme of things.
Surely things like re-painting come out of 'revenue' spending rather than 'investment?

Given the amount of emphasis on this thread about creating jobs at least things like painting tend to do that quickly. The problem with investment is that it takes about a decade for the 'spadework' to start. I appreciate that there are design and legal processes to go through during the warm-up period but they tend to be rather specialist and frequently bedevilled by chronic skills shortages anyway.
 

21C101

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Surely things like re-painting come out of 'revenue' spending rather than 'investment?

Given the amount of emphasis on this thread about creating jobs at least things like painting tend to do that quickly. The problem with investment is that it takes about a decade for the 'spadework' to start. I appreciate that there are design and legal processes to go through during the warm-up period but they tend to be rather specialist and frequently bedevilled by chronic skills shortages anyway.
Another reason not to can "shovel ready" HS2
 

cle

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I don't think much was ready to activate on Ely anyway - it's a study at this stage and works would be well into the next CP.

Flies in the face of the decarbonisation strategy, but maybe that is just greenwashing BS.

Otherwise, it could be operational rather than capital: service frequency cuts across the board (with longest trains possible) and associated headcount.
 

JonathanH

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Otherwise, it could be operational rather than capital: service frequency cuts across the board (with longest trains possible) and associated headcount.
These are the Network Rail budget cutbacks, and even then only project spend - the cut backs to come on TOC operations (eg service frequency cuts) are likely to be on top.
 

Philip

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Surely things like re-painting come out of 'revenue' spending rather than 'investment?

Given the amount of emphasis on this thread about creating jobs at least things like painting tend to do that quickly. The problem with investment is that it takes about a decade for the 'spadework' to start. I appreciate that there are design and legal processes to go through during the warm-up period but they tend to be rather specialist and frequently bedevilled by chronic skills shortages anyway.

Regarding jobs, the focus should be on saving the existing jobs; ticket office, guards, platforms staff, before thinking of creating separate jobs for repainting.
 

Ianno87

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Regarding jobs, the focus should be on saving the existing jobs; ticket office, guards, platforms staff, before thinking of creating separate jobs for repainting.

Why exactly all those roles sacrosanct? How relevant are (for example) keeping ticket offices staffed to present levels in the days of TVMs, online purchasing, and phone apps?

The railway over the coming years *is* going to have to show that it is spending money wisely, not keeping some obscure rural ticket office staffed just in case somebody wants to buy a South Pennines Day ranger once in a while or something.
 

Bletchleyite

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Regarding jobs, the focus should be on saving the existing jobs; ticket office, guards, platforms staff, before thinking of creating separate jobs for repainting.

No, the focus should be on providing the appropriate level of service to passengers. Staff are employed in order to fulfil that requirement. They are not an end in themselves. Jobs exist because the business requires them.
 

Philip

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Why exactly all those roles sacrosanct? How relevant are (for example) keeping ticket offices staffed to present levels in the days of TVMs, online purchasing, and phone apps?

The railway over the coming years *is* going to have to show that it is spending money wisely, not keeping some obscure rural ticket office staffed just in case somebody wants to buy a South Pennines Day ranger once in a while or something.

A TVM doesn't help in time of a crisis. The job of the office staff and platform staff becomes invaluable when there is disruption. And many people don't know to work the TVM properly, some people don't know to access the tickets on the app etc... Office staff aren't just there to sell tickets, they're travel advisers really. They do have to adapt to the way people are buying tickets, but from my experience they are doing.
 

Philip

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No, the focus should be on providing the appropriate level of service to passengers. Staff are employed in order to fulfil that requirement. They are not an end in themselves. Jobs exist because the business requires them.

Without the staff mentioned that service level would be a lot less.
 

swt_passenger

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Surely 10% of the 90% that will still proceed will still be late, so that is another 9% reduction!
Yes, theres usually a long taper rather than a sudden stop. I noticed in the NR Jun 2020 Enhancements update a lot of the items listed were marked complete at that time, but were hangovers from CP5... Anyone might think it was there to pad the 9 page document out a bit.
 

Aictos

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With regards to the staffing posts, may I add that I've observed personally at various stations that people would rather wait in line for a member of staff to serve them then use a TVM that didn't have anyone waiting to use it.

Now that could be personal preference, they didn't feel comfortable using the TVM or the TVM didn't retail the required tickets.

A few times when I worked in the industry, I was happy to help people use the TVMs but most of the time, the answer was they rather wait and not use the TVMs.

Personally I think staffing should be as business dictates eg while I can understand Hollingbourne in Kent being unmanned and having no ticket facilities apart from a permit to travel machine, I don't think the same should apply to Bromley South in Kent which should have first to last train staffing if not already.
 

tbtc

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One "good" thing is that the squeeze has come after the accessibility deadline kicked in, so at least we can sweat current assets a bit more (i.e. extend the operational life of vehicles rather than buying new ones) - if the crisis had happened a few years ago then we'd be faced with keeping knackered Pacers running for even longer, patched together with duct tape, dealing with the consequences of the angry disability lobby etc. Keeping a Sprinter on the rails for a few more years may not be ideal but it's a lot more palatable than patching a 142 together and hoping it doesn't fall apart!

We know from Scotland that the electrification costs can be vastly cheaper than those of GWML and MML, getting on to EU benchmarks.

But at the same time, EGIP and to be descoped a fair bit - I think that the "land of milk and honey" stuff gets exaggerated a bit (and I say this as a Scot) - even something relatively simple like the Paisley Canal branch seemed to be a bit of a struggle. Great news that they are electrifying lines, of course, but there have been a few problems on both sides of the border.

Has the road budget suffered a 10% cut?

There's not a "road budget" in quite the same way that there's a rail budget - but we sometimes like to pretend that roads get built quite easily whilst rail projects take a lot longer - look how long they've been trying to sort out the bottleneck around Stonehenge.

I presume that you are referring to proposed platforms 15 and 16. Not building this expensive white elephant would be a worthwhile saving. The Castlefield problem is best solved by changing its use and removing longer distance passenger services (to Chester/Lancaster/York and beyond) from it.

I agree - building more platforms at Piccadilly would only encourage the messy pattern of hourly services that strangle capacity around Manchester - you'd soon see the proposed Bradford - Manchester Airport service and various other proposed routes.

There are two tracks through Castlefield at the moment and two "through" platforms at Piccadilly/ Oxford Road. Thameslink has a similar "core" and can cope with a train every couple of minutes. But the apparent need for Cleethorpes/ Barrow/ Middlesbrough/ Glasgow etc to all have regular Airport services, and the mess created by trying to give places like Southport a Piccadilly link means that we have nine Airport trains per hour but gaps of up to seventeen minutes (and then several trains within a short period, meaning passengers will be badly distributed).

A more efficient use of capacity would mean simplifying the messy combination of services around Manchester - no need to spend tens of millions of pounds on extra platforms.

(especially if a lot of the congestion at Castlefield is caused by Airport trains, and we see that demand for flights never returns to what it once was)

we just don't know to what extent city commuting will come back, so tomorrow's pinch points may be in different places.

This is a very good point - it might take another six months to see how demand patterns settle down - e.g. if we see that long distance London demand doesn't come back to pre Covid levels then something like the flat crossing at Newark will be less of an issue than it once was.

Whilst it wouldn't make up anywhere near the 1bn shortfall, cut backs could be made to things like repainting and rebranding trains and stations as a start. These aren't important in the scheme of things.

Things need repainting - look at how bus companies regularly repaint vehicles (even if the livery doesn't change) - the money spent on this is fairly trivial.
 

Ianno87

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A TVM doesn't help in time of a crisis. The job of the office staff and platform staff becomes invaluable when there is disruption. And many people don't know to work the TVM properly, some people don't know to access the tickets on the app etc... Office staff aren't just there to sell tickets, they're travel advisers really. They do have to adapt to the way people are buying tickets, but from my experience they are doing.

I didn't say get rid of all staff. Just deploy them where most effective to benefit the most number of actual, real passengers.
 

bramling

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I didn't say get rid of all staff. Just deploy them where most effective to benefit the most number of actual, real passengers.

One place I’d have a look at whether savings can be made is the number of “security”, “enforcement” and “response” staff who seem to be increasingly pervading stations nowadays. Clearly they cost money, and I don’t feel they make a particularly worthwhile contribution to the end product.
 

The Ham

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A TVM doesn't help in time of a crisis. The job of the office staff and platform staff becomes invaluable when there is disruption. And many people don't know to work the TVM properly, some people don't know to access the tickets on the app etc... Office staff aren't just there to sell tickets, they're travel advisers really. They do have to adapt to the way people are buying tickets, but from my experience they are doing.

It depends on the ticket machine, SWR have some where you can talk to staff, so you employ the staff in a central location and those staff can cover more stations than would be the case.

Take for instance a station which sees half hourly services where both depart at broadly the same time, that station would see few people using the ticket office for 15-20 at a time. However another station may then use that slack staff time by using such remote contact ticket machines.

As such you could have the same number of staff providing a much better service across all stations (as those without start currently benefit and those with part time staff have access to staff more of the time).
 

43096

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Whilst it wouldn't make up anywhere near the 1bn shortfall, cut backs could be made to things like repainting and rebranding trains and stations as a start. These aren't important in the scheme of things.
Trains are normally repainted only when due under the maintenance regime. It is not a cost that is optional.
 
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