Life after the end of "lockdown" 2.0

[trebor79]

Anyway, we've got these vaccines soon to be rolled out now anyway, as well as the R rate now estimated to be 0.88. Cases are coming down fast now, hospital admissions are edging down, and we are on the verge of deaths finally coming down(again). Absolutely pointless now for yet another national lockdown.

Yeah, but the R is only down because of the lockdown. That's the folly of lockdowns, as soon as it's lifted R goes back up to where ever it was and you're back to exponential growth.
We need to find better ways of dealing with it.

 

[DB]

In an ideal world yes, but the infection rates have fallen immensely during the national lockdown.

They were already falling before it started - you are assuming that correlation=causation, but that is highly questionable: the places where transmission is most likely (schools, workplaces) have remained open, and there has been widespread ignoring of the lockdown, probably resulting in more people meeting up in houses which have one of the measures which pubs have.

You are falling into the politicians' trap of assuming that if measures aren't put in place then exponential increase will continue indefinitely. Look at Sweden to see that this clearly isn't the case.

 

[Bantamzen]

And now this morning the Environment Secretary George Eustice is talking about we being able to "turn the corner by early summer”. Every time a minister is asked about it the can seems to be kicked further and further down the road. Given that the furlough scheme has been stretched already, and local councils starting to talk about government funds drying up, I cannot for the life of me understand how ministers seem to be still talking about much longer periods of restrictions when clearly our economy is struggling.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/55128511

Environment Secretary George Eustice is asked on BBC Breakfast whether more than 70 Conservative MPs may be about to oppose the introduction of a tougher tier system when it ends.

Eustice says: “We’re facing a large number of our MPs who are unsettled by the measure that have had to be taken. We absolutely understand that anxiety.”

The government must convince MPs and the public that “we’ve got a route through this" with the deployment of vaccines meaning we can “turn the corner by early summer”.

“We shouldn’t stumble at this last hurdle,” he said.

He adds the data showing a fall in coronavirus infections “vindicates” the government’s decision to impose a national lockdown in England.

Eustice says he's not surprised if the Labour Party votes against the three-tier system tomorrow, and adds a national emergency is not a time to “play politics”.

 

[Jamesrob637]

They were already falling before it started - you are assuming that correlation=causation, but that is highly questionable: the places where transmission is most likely (schools, workplaces) have remained open, and there has been widespread ignoring of the lockdown, probably resulting in more people meeting up in houses which have one of the measures which pubs have.

You are falling into the politicians' trap of assuming that if measures aren't put in place then exponential increase will continue indefinitely. Look at Sweden to see that this clearly isn't the case.

Schools are/were a cause for concern, and the tiered system definitely helped prior to the lockdown. Had the schools shut, we'd be looking at far lower rates again but childrens' welfare up the swanny.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

They were already falling before it started - you are assuming that correlation=causation, but that is highly questionable: the places where transmission is most likely (schools, workplaces) have remained open, and there has been widespread ignoring of the lockdown, probably resulting in more people meeting up in houses which have one of the measures which pubs have.

You are falling into the politicians' trap of assuming that if measures aren't put in place then exponential increase will continue indefinitely. Look at Sweden to see that this clearly isn't the case.

You maybe right you may not be but what you are rightly exposing is the lack of understanding about virus transmission and the suitability of the models being used. If the govt had given some small change on whats its thrown at test, track and isolate to researchers we might have had a better understanding by now and built more appropriate models to respond more effectively rather than adopting sledgehammers and sticking plasters.

 

[chris11256]

And now this morning the Environment Secretary George Eustice is talking about we being able to "turn the corner by early summer”. Every time a minister is asked about it the can seems to be kicked further and further down the road. Given that the furlough scheme has been stretched already, and local councils starting to talk about government funds drying up, I cannot for the life of me understand how ministers seem to be still talking about much longer periods of restrictions when clearly our economy is struggling.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/55128511

It is concerning, we've gone from back to normal by easter to back to normal by summer.

In all honesty I do think that if jabs to begin in December and the government don't muck it up, there's no reason whatsoever why we couldn't have almost all restrictions gone by easter/mid spring. Other thought is that with vaccination well underway come March, will MPs really want to renew the the Coronavirus Act?

*updated to reflect correct quote

 

[Class 33]

It is concerning, we've gone from back to normal by easter to back to normal by early or late summer(sky news quoted late summer).

In all honesty I do think that if jabs to begin in December and the government don't muck it up, there's no reason whatsoever why we couldn't have almost all restrictions gone by easter/mid spring. Other thought is that with vaccination well underway come March, will MPs really want to renew the the Coronavirus Act?

I heard Eustice mentioning by early Summer on BBC Breakfast this morning. Who was it on Sky News who mentioned late summer?

And I do agree with your second comment. With the vaccines about to be rolled out now, then surely we should be in a good enough position for most(if not all) restrictions should be scrapped by Easter or mid spring.

 

[chris11256]

I heard Eustice mentioning by early Summer on BBC Breakfast this morning. Who was it on Sky News who mentioned late summer?

And I do agree with your second comment. With the vaccines about to be rolled out now, then surely we should be in a good enough position for most(if not all) restrictions should be scrapped by Easter or mid spring.

Sorry my fault, misread the live coverage bit. He's quoted as saying by next summer..

 

[DB]

Schools are/were a cause for concern, and the tiered system definitely helped prior to the lockdown. Had the schools shut, we'd be looking at far lower rates again but childrens' welfare up the swanny.

You are again assuming that correlation=causation with the tier system - this is again not a safe assumption. As I've said before, look at Sweden. If these models were correct we would have expected them to see consistent exponential growth in cases and deaths for the past few months, and that has not happened.

 

[C J Snarzell]

The issue is the government cannot keep flipping about between a lockdown then Tiers (which I consider is still a lockdown). It's like turning the economy off & on like a running tap.

This mayhem cannot continue beyond the Spring of next year. Boris Johnson must surely realise that the mental health damage and devastation to the economy has to be addressed.

The issue over the NHS has raged on for years about they are under resourced. The phrase the NHS could collapse - Yes - but what about the thousands of businesses that have collapsed or are due to collapse. Do they not matter?

As I've said in other threads - I do think we will be kept under restrictions until March. If BJ pushes the lockdown/Tier restrictions into the Summer of 2021 he will have a National rebellion on his hands. I can't see him doing this as it would be political suicide for him and alot of the Tories.

CJ

 

[Jamesrob637]

The issue is the government cannot keep flipping about between a lockdown then Tiers (which I consider is still a lockdown). It's like turning the economy off & on like a running tap.

This mayhem cannot continue beyond the Spring of next year. Boris Johnson must surely realise that the mental health damage and devastation to the economy has to be addressed.

The issue over the NHS has raged on for years about they are under resourced. The phrase the NHS could collapse - Yes - but what about the thousands of businesses that have collapsed or are due to collapse. Do they not matter?

As I've said in other threads - I do think we will be kept under restrictions until March. If BJ pushes the lockdown/Tier restrictions into the Summer of 2021 he will have a National rebellion on his hands. I can't see him doing this as it would be political suicide for him and alot of the Tories.

CJ

Are you saying that there won't be rebellion from doing it over winter? Possibly because people lose more freedom with summer restrictions than with winter ones?

 

[packermac]

I heard Eustice mentioning by early Summer on BBC Breakfast this morning. Who was it on Sky News who mentioned late summer?

And I do agree with your second comment. With the vaccines about to be rolled out now, then surely we should be in a good enough position for most(if not all) restrictions should be scrapped by Easter or mid spring.

It is far better to over perform rather than under achieve. Back in the summer when Boris said should be OK by Christmas is a prime example.
Personally I do not see all those that the government are paying to vaccinate being completed and left to show is does actually work in real life by Easter. Especially if most are Astra Zeneca ones that need to be give a month apart.

 

[C J Snarzell]

Are you saying that there won't be rebellion from doing it over winter? Possibly because people lose more freedom with summer restrictions than with winter ones?

We are already in the Winter and I think alot of folks are resigned to the expectation this fiasco is going to continue for at least another 2/3 months.

If you think of anyone about to go into Tier 3 (like myself) could be subject to Tier 3 restrictions until March (which does seem likely if new cases go up again during the Christmas four day window).

What you then have is a large part of the population who have not been allowed to socialise or interact with anyone from outside their household for five months (from the start of the second lockdown on the 5th November 2020 until late March 2021). That's not to mention businesses that cannot open or profit.

My previous post is merely highlighting that Boris Johnson would be very very reckless to push strict Tier 3 restrictions further and further into the summer of 2021.

CJ

 

[trebor79]

My previous post is merely highlighting that Boris Johnson would be very very reckless to push strict Tier 3 restrictions further and further into the summer of 2021.

He is reckless though, his previous behaviour as Mayor of London and as a journalist, let alone his personal life are riddled with examples.

 

[C J Snarzell]

He is reckless though, his previous behaviour as Mayor of London and as a journalist, let alone his personal life are riddled with examples.

There was some reference to Margaret Thatcher over the weekend as it marked the 30th anniversary of her leaving Downing Street.

There was a couple of comparisons between her and Boris in how she would have dealt with this Covid fiasco.

I do honestly believe Johnson's position is becoming untenable now, particularly over the decision to keep London in Tier 2 while much of the North suffers in Tier 3.

CJ

 

[greyman42]

As I've said in other threads - I do think we will be kept under restrictions until March. If BJ pushes the lockdown/Tier restrictions into the Summer of 2021 he will have a National rebellion on his hands. I can't see him doing this as it would be political suicide for him and alot of the Tories.

Without a u turn on the tiers, Johnson is probably finished. If he is going down he would not have the slightest problem with taking the rest of the party with him and the Conservatives need to be aware of this.

 

[MikeWM]

The new Tier regulations have been published:

https://www.legislation.gov.uk/uksi/2020/1374/made

They explicitly expire on February 2nd, as was hinted over the weekend. They are rather long, but on a quick skim I don't see anything that wasn't expected.

 

[Solent&Wessex]

The new Tier regulations have been published:

https://www.legislation.gov.uk/uksi/2020/1374/made

They explicitly expire on February 2nd, as was hinted over the weekend. They are rather long, but on a quick skim I don't see anything that wasn't expected.

A few important changes (for the better!) regarding linked households / support bubbles, which I have just posted in the other thread.

 

[MikeWM]

A few important changes (for the better!) regarding linked households / support bubbles, which I have just posted in the other thread.

Yes, that was a more logical place for it, thanks

I got rather lost in the mass of words. How many times longer are these than the original regs from March?! Trying to regulate the minutiae of pretty much every aspect of life is both ludicrous and alarming.

 

[bramling]

Without a u turn on the tiers, Johnson is probably finished. If he is going down he would not have the slightest problem with taking the rest of the party with him and the Conservatives need to be aware of this.

I do wonder if we’re already in the early stages of exactly that. BJ has essentially been finished ever since the “worst death toll in Europe” headlines came out, along with the way that’s he’s managed to find a strategy which has annoyed *everyone*.

There’s clearly stuff going on behind the scenes, and that’s been the case on and off since the summer.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

Hancock using his presser tonight to make the point to MPs if we don't have these restrictions then another lockdown is possible. That said he also seemed bullish that there will be movement down the Tiers on 17th December as cases are down 30% and hospitalisation is now falling as well.

 

[DB]

Hancock using his presser tonight to make the point to MPs if we don't have these restrictions then another lockdown is possible. That said he also seemed bullish that there will be movement down the Tiers on 17th December as cases are down 30% and hospitalisation is now falling as well.

A lockdown is possible anyway, and everyone knows it! If he's using this as a bargaining position he must be pretty desperate!

 

[DustyBin]

According to the Daily Mail, claims the NHS is in danger of being overwhelmed are somewhat spurious. I’m sure some of us on here have previously pointed out that the NHS endures winter pressures every year....

Only FOUR hospitals are busier than they were last winter, data shows

Number 10 was today accused of running a 'brainwashing campaign' after analysis showed only four NHS trusts in England are busier now than they were this time last year - despite Covid warnings.

www.dailymail.co.uk

Number 10 was today accused of running a 'brainwashing PR campaign' after MailOnline's analysis of official data showed only four NHS trusts in England are busier now than they were this time last year — despite warnings the health service would be crippled by coronavirus without the revamped three-tier lockdown system.

 

[C J Snarzell]

A lockdown is possible anyway, and everyone knows it! If he's using this as a bargaining position he must be pretty desperate!

Tier 3 isn't much different from the lockdown anyway (apart from a few more shops will be open!). If they put us in a third lockdown in January is it really going going to make a blind bit of difference to those of us in the Tier 3 areas?

CJ

 

[Skimpot flyer]

Yes, that was a more logical place for it, thanks

I got rather lost in the mass of words. How many times longer are these than the original regs from March?! Trying to regulate the minutiae of pretty much every aspect of life is both ludicrous and alarming.

(image shows police in riot gear and the tag line ‘Stay calm. Everything will be ok. We are here to protect you’)

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 30 Nov 2020 ==

Hancock using his presser tonight to make the point to MPs if we don't have these restrictions then another lockdown is possible. That said he also seemed bullish that there will be movement down the Tiers on 17th December as cases are down 30% and hospitalisation is now falling as well.

It’s part of the ‘do as you’re told and we’ll give you back a tiny little bit of the freedoms you once had’ psychological warfare

 

[david1212]

Here's a simple solution to the tiers problem. Divide the country into MPs constituencies and let each MP decide what tier their constituency should be in.

That could work where the constituency is reasonably rural centred on one town but I don't see how it could work in a city. As an example Coventry has three constituencies while Birmingham has nine. Where there is a two tier system District Council areas would be better but that doesn't work where unitary.

Unless the infection rate continue to fall so many more areas that a month ago were tier 1 but are now lumped with an urban area and in tier 3 can be dropped to tier 2 as-is a change is essential.

IMO any changes from 17th December are too late for hospitality business and their suppliers. A spike in the infection rate early in January is almost inevitable, the unknown is by how much. If anywhere is dropped a tier mid-December it could go back up again mid-January. Hence while the government are making noises I doubt if there will be any changes this year.


As an average across England R is now around or just under 1 and Covid-19 daily infections have fallen by around 30% compared to a month ago. Based on this Matt Hancock has stated that the second lockdown was 'successful'. Given though that the tier system hadn't really been allowed to settle plus without the lockdown numerous areas would have moved up a tier I wonder if both R and the number of daily infections would have fallen to the same or almost the same anyway with far less damage to all business forced to close or operate in a very restricted way.

 

[bramling]

Hancock using his presser tonight to make the point to MPs if we don't have these restrictions then another lockdown is possible.

More threats.

 

[kez19]

More threats.

Fast becoming “a neverending story”

lockdowns don’t work but hey they at least still getting paid for brainstorming ideas (what brainstorming ideas I hear you ask?) ... zilch

 

[Freightmaster]

Hancock using his presser tonight to make the point to MPs if we don't have these restrictions then another lockdown is possible.

Hopefully even the more moderate/loyal Tory MPs will take exception to the use of blatant emotional blackmail
to bully them into voting for the measures??






MARK

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

Hopefully even the more moderate/loyal Tory MPs will take exception to the use of blatant emotional blackmail
to bully them into voting for the measures??






MARK

With Labour abstaining and probably SNP/DUP Tories will get this through without any further concessions.

The evidence though is compelling though that too many areas are in Tier 3 and that even there methodology is being applied haphazardly. The data being used was upto 19/11 and is compared back to previous week and its pretty poor that this can't be more dynamically managed given the data streams that are available. Todays Imperial React survey shows the R rate is below 1.0 everywhere with significant reductions in the North of nearly 50% from the peak and trending down fast. As we know hospitalisations lag 10-14 days behind so by the time the Tiers come in rates will be falling in hospitals as well. So this tells us a full lockdown will bare down on virus transmission and is overkill in terms of keeping the NHS functioning for all. What needs to be done this time is not to get ahead of ourselves and heed the warning from Wales and NI where they've gone backwards within a few weeks of relaxation but also not to be overtly aggressive. So going forward we need to find the balance between personal freedom and almost experiment with changes but be prepared to react fast if case rates increase not wait for a review date. Finally the areas should be matched to the NHS Trust that serves an area not just lumping whole counties into the same Tier.