Life after the end of "lockdown" 2.0

[DB]

There does seem to be an obsession with pubs and cafes. These are not the only businesses suffering badly. There’s quite a few small-size attractions which are also being crucified by all this, the only slight mercy is that many of these wouldn’t be doing much at this particular time.

It's a large part of the hospitality industry, plus a lot of the retail industry - particularly small shops which don't have the online presence which the chains do.

 

[DustyBin]

I cannot believe that there is any scientific thinking behind any of this. It seems to be a bunch of politicians thinking they're playing a real life computer game. They've trashed the economy, destroying people's livelihoods and other's mental well-being. What has this country become? We're restricted at every turn and for what? If we question it we're just told we're selfish and people are dying. I honestly cannot see any way out of all of this. It's a total obsession, very much like some computer games become, sure it isn't the Matrix we're living in?

I said something similar earlier on. The country is effectively being run by a group of scientists to whom this is an academic exercise, a huge experiment, and this pathetic government are allowing it to happen. I honestly don’t think they want it to stop, they’re in their element playing around with our lives....

 

[geoffk]

It's a large part of the hospitality industry, plus a lot of the retail industry - particularly small shops which don't have the online presence which the chains do.

Performing arts are also being hit badly - no gigs or concerts, plays etc. Even when they do start, income will be hard hit by the need for a socially-distanced audience.

 

[Kite159]

There has been lots in the news about how much pubs, bars and restaurants are suffering in both Tiers 2 and 3, but it’s hotels that I also really feel sorry for. The large chains like Premier Inn will survive but it’s the independent hotels, especially in Tier 3 areas that are being the hardest hit. They were able to open for a few months from July, but after spending lots of money to make them Covid secure, and working with much reduced staffing and often low guest numbers, they are now closed again with no date for reopening. Even those that are open in Tier 2 must be finding it very difficult to keep going when no one from Tier 3 areas can stay in them. Then there is the big loss of income from overseas guests.

I had to cancel four uk hotel stays during the first lockdown. I did manage to get 4 short stays in quiet country hotels between August and October. I felt so sorry for them operating with very few staff and only a fraction of the usual number of guests staying, yet they were trying so hard to comply with the regulations, and made me very welcome. Now that my county is in Tier 3 I am not able to go away to stay overnight in hotels again. I was planning to go away for 2 or 3 nights before Christmas but that’s now cancelled.

Even the larger chains might be suffering with having to close or the reduction of bookings in city centre locations (ie the ones which would be booked up following a good night out drinking).

Furloughing staff can save some money but staff costs are only a small cost. I can see some Travelodges being sold off/closed in the future. When you can book a same night hotel room in a city centre location for £20 you know demand is low.

For some in tier 3 it will be a balancing act between closing outright for the duration or staying open for the business users.

Wasn't it previously reported that some hotels were cancelling bookings made by people in tier 3 areas due to insurance?

 

[trebor79]

I cant say I'm surprised at all with my area (Birmingham) being placed into tier 3. The numbers were rising when we were in Tier 2 prior to the lockdown and they haven't dropped below 300. Ive seen some areas in the city its at 600+ per 100,000. Its going to be a long winter and I genuinely don't see us anywhere but Tier 3 until a vaccine has an effect. If anything I feel there's more of a chance of another lockdown.

Boris keeps on talking about normality by Easter but does anyone have any confidence in any promise he makes?.

Neil O'Brien MP has released a slide on Twitter trying to demonstrate to people that "the data" was used to decide who went into what tier.
To howls of derision as the slide shows the data used is from 19th November, and many areas are now at much lower infection levels. It will be two weeks out of date come 2nd December. Really the first review should be then, not 16th December!
Many people.also pointing out lockdown was based upon projections, whereas tiers are now going to be based upon data that is 2 to 4 weeks old.
Just when you thought they couldn't get any more incompetent...

Edit: the slide also makes apparent that positives per 100,000 is the only criteria that has been used, and not any of the other things that were Shelly feeding into the decision.

I'm indescribably angry today.

 

[sheff1]

There appears to be numerous opposition to the tier plans from MPs, which unsurprisingly includes all of the CRG, and there are also some Labour MPs voicing concerns, while they have said their voting intention depends on consulting Government covid experts

Can anyone provide evidence that any such people actually exist ?

 

[DB]

Just when you thought they couldn't get any more incompetent...

I never make that mistake now - they can always go lower, no matter what depths they have already reached!

 

[johnnychips]

I am sat here tonight in absolute despair.

My area is now in Tier 2. I am missing my friends, missing my family, but apart from a walk in the park (in December!), I can only see them if we decide to break the law.

I know some will suggest breaking the law, and I know I probably won't get caught or could blag it by claiming a support bubble, but I cannot believe it has come to this. I live on my own, my family and close friends are too far away to form a support bubble with. I have local friends but they're not particularly close and they have their own lives/families to worry about. I've been forced to work from home since March, so I don't see my colleagues. The only in person conversations I've had this week have been with the postman and a delivery man. That's if 'morning, parcel for you, bit cold today isn't it?' even qualifies as as a conversation.

I despair that it's come to this, that the government have made a law saying I can't see my mum for a cuppa and a chat and I can't meet my best friend for a pint.

@DelayRepay Just do it. The chances of being stopped are minimal, and if you are feeling that bad, any journey is essential. PM me if you want.

 

[brad465]

Can anyone provide evidence that any such people actually exist ?

I believe they exist, but they're not a part of SAGE (e.g. Carl Heneghan and Sunetra Gupta).

 

[DB]

I believe they exist, but they're not a part of SAGE (e.g. Carl Heneghan and Sunetra Gupta).

By 'Government Covid experts', they clearly mean the official Doomsters though, so there can be little doubt about what line they will be fed!

 

[brad465]

By 'Government Covid experts', they clearly mean the official Doomsters though, so there can be little doubt about what line they will be fed!

Yes I forgot to notice the word "Government" in there, I should have said Covid experts exist, but none of them are in contact with the Government (on the grounds of being censored/snubbed).

Also I do think people seem to mix up the terms "expert" and "omniscient": experts may know a lot in their field, but that doesn't mean they'll get everything right, they just make as best a forecast/estimate as possible.

 

[Bantamzen]

Testing is a vital part of test, track, trace etc. Helps understand how the virus spreads of course. If rates aren't going down despite this, that to me suggests a lack of social distancing although Bradford does have a particularly high number of inter-generational households.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 26 Nov 2020 ==

Bradford has had very widespread testing for quite some time, that's my point. Testing here has led to discovering more cases which frankly has been used against us. Bradford has had one of the longest periods of additional restrictions of all areas. And rates are coming down, fast. In the last two weeks they have fallen by a third.

Interesting article in The Telegraph about a potential post lockdown savings splurge. It makes a comparison between now and the end of the Spanish Flu pandemic in 1920, and also the end of the First World War.

Some people have been saving money during lockdown, and will be looking for something to spend it on when restrictions are lifted.

Additionally, people are so sick and tired of all the restrictions, and being lectured about "killing granny" by the likes of Professor Twitty and Hancock, that they are going to have a big blow out as soon as they can.

Access Restricted

Ironically it seems to be those that can afford lockdown have been the loudest calling for them, and are the same people who might be having a post-restriction splurge. Sadly the people who can't might find themselves with even less as their jobs disappear around them.

I've said this before, but the restrictions are starting to bite along class lines. The poor will get hammered whilst middle income earners do OK. And that is not right.

 

[Horizon22]

Bradford has had very widespread testing for quite some time, that's my point. Testing here has led to discovering more cases which frankly has been used against us. Bradford has had one of the longest periods of additional restrictions of all areas. And rates are coming down, fast. In the last two weeks they have fallen by a third.

Ah I see what you mean - that because it has such intensive testing that rates will naturally be higher than other unreported cases across the UK.

 

[DelayRepay]

@DelayRepay Just do it. The chances of being stopped are minimal, and if you are feeling that bad, any journey is essential. PM me if you want.

I probably will.

But, I have never deliberately broken the law in my life. And I despair that it's come to this. I do not want to have a party with dozens of people - just to see family/friends.

It looks like the Tory back benchers are not happy. I wonder if we will see any concessions over the next few days? Perhaps an earlier review of the data - waiting to 16 December seems too late as any changes will then more or less collide with the special Christmas concessions.

 

[yorksrob]

It's clear that if your area has infection rates that are on the rise, you'll be put into the higher tier. If however you have higher rates that are coming down, you'll still be put in the higher tier.

The aim of these restrictions is clear - to keep as much of the country in lockdown as possible.

 

[duncanp]

It's clear that if your area has infection rates that are on the rise, you'll be put into the higher tier. If however you have higher rates that are coming down, you'll still be put in the higher tier.

The aim of these restrictions is clear - to keep as much of the country in lockdown as possible.

And the map of all the restrictions is quite clear.

Apart from a few exceptions (eg, Bristol, Slough and Kent) the majority of the Tier 3 areas are in the Midlands and the North.

Hardly the "levelling up" agenda that you promised, is it Boris.

Some papers are also reporting that the government is playing down the possibility that areas will move down the tiers before Christmas, saying that they "..need to see the effect of the relaxation of restrictions at Christmas..." before they decide.

No doubt in January they will find a new excuse, such as "...winter pressures on the NHS..." or "...we need to wait until all the vulnerable people have been vaccinated.." before they ease restrictions.

On our local news, the Mayor of the West Midlands (Conservative) was saying that if you want people to comply with the restrictions, you have to give them hope that, if they do, they will be rewarded with being moved down a tier, as has happened in Liverpool. He also said that you also have to give businesses in Tier 3 that have been closed down meaningful support, otherwise there will be mass redundancies and business closures.

If you dangle a carrot in front of people, only to snatch it away from them, they will become more angry and disillusioned, and less likely to comply with the rules.

If there is a no deal Brexit, and there are adverse consequences of this, it could well be the last straw for many in the Conservative party, and I wouldn't rule out a challenge to his leadership, or a vote of no confidence in Parliament, in the new year.

 

[Bantamzen]

Ah I see what you mean - that because it has such intensive testing that rates will naturally be higher than other unreported cases across the UK.

Indeed, Bradford has effectively been under the microscope for months, far longer than Liverpool which is being held up as the "compliant" city. From city centre walk in test centres, mobile test centres, door-to-door testing etc. Add to the mix Bradford Hospital Trust's ground-breaking work with treatments and vaccine tests, and despite high positive tests fatalities remaining pretty low, you can understand why there is a rapidly growing sense of anger when we hear the government talking about mass testing as being the solution to bring down numbers.

Mass testing - Check
Numbers falling - Check
Result? Highest tier.

It's clear that if your area has infection rates that are on the rise, you'll be put into the higher tier. If however you have higher rates that are coming down, you'll still be put in the higher tier.

The aim of these restrictions is clear - to keep as much of the country in lockdown as possible.

I think there is more to it, we are fast approaching another potentially significant event which many of us were concerned might have a serious impact on the economy. The economic impact of ongoing restrictions might just prove to be a handy distraction for the other event, perhaps even act as "proof" that the latter was a good idea by opening up a few weeks into the new year.

Yes I know this smacks of tin-foil-hattism, or the stuff of a well-known political comedy series, but the longer this goes on the more increasingly like that this shower of barstools are actually working on this kind of thing.

 

[yorksrob]

And the map of all the restrictions is quite clear.

Apart from a few exceptions (eg, Bristol, Slough and Kent) the majority of the Tier 3 areas are in the Midlands and the North.

Hardly the "levelling up" agenda that you promised, is it Boris.

Some papers are also reporting that the government is playing down the possibility that areas will move down the tiers before Christmas, saying that they "..need to see the effect of the relaxation of restrictions at Christmas..." before they decide.

No doubt in January they will find a new excuse, such as "...winter pressures on the NHS..." or "...we need to wait until all the vulnerable people have been vaccinated.." before they ease restrictions.

On our local news, the Mayor of the West Midlands (Conservative) was saying that if you want people to comply with the restrictions, you have to give them hope that, if they do, they will be rewarded with being moved down a tier, as has happened in Liverpool. He also said that you also have to give businesses in Tier 3 that have been closed down meaningful support, otherwise there will be mass redundancies and business closures.

If you dangle a carrot in front of people, only to snatch it away from them, they will become more angry and disillusioned, and less likely to comply with the rules.

If there is a no deal Brexit, and there are adverse consequences of this, it could well be the last straw for many in the Conservative party, and I wouldn't rule out a challenge to his leadership, or a vote of no confidence in Parliament, in the new year.

And the problem is, a policy where technocrats pick and choose which actions of social and economic activity may continue on the basis of what is "worthy" in their eyes, cannot hope to control the spread of a virus, so the restrictions are doomed to failure.

There is no carrot at the end of the stick.

 

[johntea]

Someone I know that works for Coral (the bookies) has just sent me an interesting piece of information regarding their allowed operations in a Tier 3 area

Basically open until 8pm, only 2 gaming machines per shop (instead of 4), no live sport on the TV screens (just information screens), nowhere to sit down and a maximum customer visit of 15 minutes twice a day

Makes me wonder if many will bother opening at all as their crown in the jewel is the gaming machines and I can’t see many customers being happy at getting booted off after just 15 minutes! (I feel sorry for the front line staff who are going to have to try enforcing that!)

Completely pointless anyway as a customer can just visit 10 different bookies in the same town to spread their virus...err bets!

 

[Solent&Wessex]

Indeed, Bradford has effectively been under the microscope for months, far longer than Liverpool which is being held up as the "compliant" city. From city centre walk in test centres, mobile test centres, door-to-door testing etc. Add to the mix Bradford Hospital Trust's ground-breaking work with treatments and vaccine tests, and despite high positive tests fatalities remaining pretty low, you can understand why there is a rapidly growing sense of anger when we hear the government talking about mass testing as being the solution to bring down numbers.

Mass testing - Check
Numbers falling - Check
Result? Highest tier.



I think there is more to it, we are fast approaching another potentially significant event which many of us were concerned might have a serious impact on the economy. The economic impact of ongoing restrictions might just prove to be a handy distraction for the other event, perhaps even act as "proof" that the latter was a good idea by opening up a few weeks into the new year.

Yes I know this smacks of tin-foil-hattism, or the stuff of a well-known political comedy series, but the longer this goes on the more increasingly like that this shower of barstools are actually working on this kind of thing.

Yet Mass Testing in Liverpool did not noticeably cause the downward trend in cases, if anything it slightly delayed the existing downward trend.

 

[DustyBin]

Ironically it seems to be those that can afford lockdown have been the loudest calling for them, and are the same people who might be having a post-restriction splurge. Sadly the people who can't might find themselves with even less as their jobs disappear around them.

I've said this before, but the restrictions are starting to bite along class lines. The poor will get hammered whilst middle income earners do OK. And that is not right.

To be fair many middle and higher earners are very exposed as well. I know people with large mortgages, car finance, school fees etc. who will very quickly run out of money if they lose their job. Whilst they won’t struggle to feed themselves or their families within days or weeks like many poor people, they can’t afford to sit back and ride the storm for months on end without making sacrifices. Whilst some people will have no sympathy (first world problems etc.) I hate to see people losing everything through no fault of their own. We’re fortunate in that we’re relatively young and still live in our modest first house and haven’t had children so we’re under less pressure, but even so these are worrying times.

 

[Bantamzen]

Yet Mass Testing in Liverpool did not noticeably cause the downward trend in cases, if anything it slightly delayed the existing downward trend.

View attachment 86398

All mass testing will do is throw up more positives, and even if they isolate (which becomes increasingly difficult the more positives are found) that won't necessarily slow the virus itself.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 27 Nov 2020 ==

To be fair many middle and higher earners are very exposed as well. I know people with large mortgages, car finance, school fees etc. who will very quickly run out of money if they lose their job. Whilst they won’t struggle to feed themselves or their families within days or weeks like many poor people, they can’t afford to sit back and ride the storm for months on end without making sacrifices. Whilst some people will have no sympathy (first world problems etc.) I hate to see people losing everything through no fault of their own. We’re fortunate in that we’re relatively young and still live in our modest first house and haven’t had children so we’re under less pressure, but even so these are worrying times.

True but so far many have been shielded from the worst off the effects through furlough and mortgage / credit holidays. Lower paid workers watching their jobs sail into the sunset have not.

 

[DustyBin]

True but so far many have been shielded from the worst off the effects through furlough and mortgage / credit holidays. Lower paid workers watching their jobs sail into the sunset have not.

I don’t disagree, however I think many can feel the noose tightening. Furlough surely can’t continue indefinitely and there are industries out there on the verge of collapse.

 

[C J Snarzell]

Performing arts are also being hit badly - no gigs or concerts, plays etc. Even when they do start, income will be hard hit by the need for a socially-distanced audience.

I'm assuming music festivals like Parklife and Glastonbury have either been cancelled or postponed for 2021 already.

These events take months of logistical planning so I am assuming the event organisers are not going to be putting all the hard work and effort in (and thousands of pounds) to prepare for events that may not be able to go ahead.

CJ

 

[duncanp]

Surprise, Surprise !

Already the BBC are quoting the ubiquitous "SAGE scientist" who says that the proposed review of tiers on 16th December might be too early, as they "..may not have had enough time to take effect by then...".

So Matt Hancock may dangle the carrot of a move down the tiers on 16th December in order to get MPs to vote for the restrictions.

And then on 15th December Professor Twitty will say that there is "not enough evidence" to justify moving anywhere down the tiers.

And then in January it will be - "..we need to wait until we see the effect of the Christmas easing of restrictions.."

And then in February it will be "...oh dear, it's winter, the NHS is about to collapse, so we need to maintain the restrictions to keep everyone safe.."

And then in March it will be "... have you seen the weather forecast today? How can we ease restrictions when Storm Boris might bring a whole two centimetres of rain...."

etc, etc.....

Prof John Edmunds, one of the experts on the government's Scientific Advisory Group on Emergencies (Sage), told BBC Radio 4's Today programme that he thinks "the balance is about right" on the proposed new system of tiered restrictions for areas of England.

He said the restrictions are a "necessary evil" while the nation still has a high number of cases in many places, with about one in 85 people being infected at the moment.

Prof Edmunds said we have to have "quite tough" measures in place, because the tier system in place before England's lockdown was not having enough of an impact.

Only tier three was "possibly" reducing the size of the epidemic, while tier one and tier two were probably not slowing the spread of the virus by very much, he said.

But he suggested 16 December might be too early to review the new tiers, as they may not have had enough time to take effect by then.

 

[yorksrob]

Surprise, Surprise !

Already the BBC are quoting the ubiquitous "SAGE scientist" who says that the proposed review of tiers on 16th December might be too early, as they "..may not have had enough time to take effect by then...".

So Matt Hancock may dangle the carrot of a move down the tiers on 16th December in order to get MPs to vote for the restrictions.

And then on 15th December Professor Twitty will say that there is "not enough evidence" to justify moving anywhere down the tiers.

And then in January it will be - "..we need to wait until we see the effect of the Christmas easing of restrictions.."

And then in February it will be "...oh dear, it's winter, the NHS is about to collapse, so we need to maintain the restrictions to keep everyone safe.."

And then in March it will be "... have you seen the weather forecast today? How can we ease restrictions when Storm Boris might bring a whole two centimetres of rain...."

etc, etc.....

Well, we know that cases were coming down in many areas in tier two, so that's a lie for starters.

 

[trebor79]

Ironically it seems to be those that can afford lockdown have been the loudest calling for them, and are the same people who might be having a post-restriction splurge. Sadly the people who can't might find themselves with even less as their jobs disappear around them.

I've said this before, but the restrictions are starting to bite along class lines. The poor will get hammered whilst middle income earners do OK. And that is not right.

Lockdown hasn't and will not affect me financially one jot, but that doesn't mean I don't think these restrictions are wrong, disastrous for our economy and way of life and an egregious invasion into our liberties.

Surprise, Surprise !

Already the BBC are quoting the ubiquitous "SAGE scientist" who says that the proposed review of tiers on 16th December might be too early, as they "..may not have had enough time to take effect by then...".

So Matt Hancock may dangle the carrot of a move down the tiers on 16th December in order to get MPs to vote for the restrictions.

And then on 15th December Professor Twitty will say that there is "not enough evidence" to justify moving anywhere down the tiers.

All a bit rich given the data they used to decide Tiers dates from 19th November. So it will already be due a 2 week review on the very day it comes into force! I can't help but feel that's deliberate in order to ensure as many areas as possible are in Tier 2 and 3, given the data is published daily.

 

[Bantamzen]

Lockdown hasn't and will not affect me financially one jot, but that doesn't mean I don't think these restrictions are wrong, disastrous for our economy and way of life and an egregious invasion into our liberties.

I wish more people in your situation felt the same, sadly many are quite content to watch others pay the price for their perceived safety.

 

[DB]

I wish more people in your situation felt the same, sadly many are quite content to watch others pay the price for their perceived safety.

I think a lot are against it even if not affected financially, to be honest.

It hasn't affected me financially and my job is not at risk, but I'm very much against all these restrictions - and the colleagues I work with most are in a similar position, and have a similar view.

 

[MikeWM]

I think a lot are against it even if not affected financially, to be honest.

I've done rather well financially out of the past year, but that's about the only silver lining of the whole wretched thing. I utterly detest everything that has been done and continues to be done.

It hasn't affected me financially and my job is not at risk, but I'm very much against all these restrictions

Same here, the company I work for is fairly high on the 'food chain' and so we've done quite well this year. Of course that's a short-term view - if the rest of the chain starts to collapse, as I fear it will over the next year, then I'm not convinced any job is entirely safe.

- and the colleagues I work with most are in a similar position, and have a similar view.

Less true in my case - we don't seem to have half as much in the way of dissent as I'd like to hear. I guess I need to try being a bit more persuasive!