Is anyone else feeling politically homeless?

[DB]

Absolutely - it's so much more than just Covid (though for some people, they don't seem to be able to discuss anything else)

While that is true, it's their Covid approach which has been the deciding factor for many people (me included). Prior to that, I would have voted for Green or Labour even if I didn't agree with all of their policies. However, their stance on this means that I absolutely would not vote for them if there were to be an election soon (which is unlikely, of course) - and as things currently stand I would spoil the ballot paper unless there was a credible independent candidate.

 

[Sad Sprinter]

What we are seeing is the emergence of Britain as a one-party state.

As someone said before, Labour has had it-for good this time. Middle England either won't vote for them because of their metropolitainsim, the threat of an SNP coalition or because of the Corbynite stain. Even if Labour can regain Blairite control in the next election, how many hard-left MPs would refuse to campaign on a Starmer agenda? Many might just campaign on their own local manifestos. And if anyone thinks Labour would have the morale and manpower to campaign on the streets like in 2017 or '19, I'm sure theyll be proved wrong. Even now, the only thing that Labour has is that Starmer isn't Boris. The problem is, there are plenty of 'not Boris'' in the Tory Party. Starmer's main advantage-his competence, will be outgunned by lack of persona, lack of credible cabinet, lack of policies in the next election if the Tories get a competent leader.

That's said, I don't think its all bad news for Labour. I think they'll get a slight rebound in Scotland with Starmer at the helm, but I think the SNP will be here to stay-even if, and I suspect is the most likely outcome, a second referendum results in another 'No' vote. I think the Scot's Tories will gain more influence and possibly disband from the UK party, if it meant increasing their support and saving the UK. Just like Brexit, Labour's response the seperatist question isn't all that clear.

As for the Lib Dems-its the same old story. But if embracing "wokeism" is their idea of Liberalism, they will find that they won't dent the Tory vote. If anything-they might just split the Labour vote in marginal constituencies.

The Tories are not god-like, but they appear to be because they are not challenged by any Party with the same level of experience, morale and determination as they have. They are much more resiliant than Labour as a party which implodes over its own ideology and are not challanged by the Lib Dems. I think that, from now on, the outcomes of General Elections will be either Tory minorities or majorities.

 

[TheGrandWazoo]

While that is true, it's their Covid approach which has been the deciding factor for many people (me included). Prior to that, I would have voted for Green or Labour even if I didn't agree with all of their policies. However, their stance on this means that I absolutely would not vote for them if there were to be an election soon (which is unlikely, of course) - and as things currently stand I would spoil the ballot paper unless there was a credible independent candidate.

Understand your trenchant views and, were people to read this forum and the views espoused therewith, you might think the world is full of people of like mind. A bit like if you read Twitter before the last election, you might be forgiven for thinking Corbyn was poised for victory.

My experience is that the vast majority of people are thoroughly hacked off with Covid and its restrictions. They are unsympathetic to the
Tories for their mis-steps in handling things, their lack of coherent plan (whether it be stronger lockdown or the opposite) and such debacles as the Barnard Castle episodes. However many also believe that any government, of any persuasion, would have had been massively challenged in responding to such a situation and that there is no perfect way out of this, if only Nigel could lead them into the light.

What we are seeing is the emergence of Britain as a one-party state.

As someone said before, Labour has had it-for good this time. Middle England either won't vote for them because of their metropolitainsim, the threat of an SNP coalition or because of the Corbynite stain. Even if Labour can regain Blairite control in the next election, how many hard-left MPs would refuse to campaign on a Starmer agenda? Many might just campaign on their own local manifestos. And if anyone thinks Labour would have the morale and manpower to campaign on the streets like in 2017 or '19, I'm sure theyll be proved wrong. Even now, the only thing that Labour has is that Starmer isn't Boris. The problem is, there are plenty of 'not Boris'' in the Tory Party. Starmer's main advantage-his competence, will be outgunned by lack of persona, lack of credible cabinet, lack of policies in the next election if the Tories get a competent leader.

That's said, I don't think its all bad news for Labour. I think they'll get a slight rebound in Scotland with Starmer at the helm, but I think the SNP will be here to stay-even if, and I suspect is the most likely outcome, a second referendum results in another 'No' vote. I think the Scot's Tories will gain more influence and possibly disband from the UK party, if it meant increasing their support and saving the UK. Just like Brexit, Labour's response the seperatist question isn't all that clear.

As for the Lib Dems-its the same old story. But if embracing "wokeism" is their idea of Liberalism, they will find that they won't dent the Tory vote. If anything-they might just split the Labour vote in marginal constituencies.

The Tories are not god-like, but they appear to be because they are not challenged by any Party with the same level of experience, morale and determination as they have. They are much more resiliant than Labour as a party which implodes over its own ideology and are not challanged by the Lib Dems. I think that, from now on, the outcomes of General Elections will be either Tory minorities or majorities.

There's a lot to chew on in this. I don't think Labour has had it for good; eventually despite the Doctor Who style regeneration of Tory leaders, people will eventually tire of the same party in charge. They aren't god like but they do have an amazing pragmatism in that getting into power and staying there is the only way to effect change, rather than some protest movement.

Agree that, at the moment, the Labour USP is "not Boris" and at the moment, Starmer is trying to clear some of the debris of the last five years. They need a vision though and I don't think that's coming through at the moment though, to be fair, there's not much room for vision with Covid and an impending Brexit when you're the opposition. However, there's no denying the scale of the task in hand. Labour need to be winning seats back, not just in the red wall, but in the bellwether seats. A few examples of seats from 2005 to 2010 and then to 2017 (I'll ignore 2019 as Get Brexit Done skewed everything whereas in 2017 these seats weren't in the metropolitan areas with lots of students etc):

Cannock Chase - 2005 (L) 9,200 to 2010 (C) 3,200 to 2017 (C) 8,300
Nuneaton - 2005 (L) 2,200 to 2010 (C) 2,100 to 2017 (C) 4.800

It's those seats that they need to start winning back and it's a long way to turnover majorities of 5k

The Lib-Dems are as busted a flush as I can remember; it feels as they are confined to a few metropolitan areas where you couldn't vote Tory because of Brexit but conversely, couldn't vote Labour because they were too bonkers, and few historic old Liberal areas. Even in areas like the South West, historically Liberal, I can't see them coming back especially if Keir moves the Labour Party towards the centre ground.

Scotland is an interesting one. For years, it was taken for granted. Perhaps again it's a case of letting the Tories argue the case for the union and for Labour to mirror that in the hope that if the Tories keep denying a second ref, then the focus moves onto the SNP record in control? Without Scotland, it's hard for Labour and the price for anything from the SNP.... well, we can guess.