Lockdown in England from Thursday 5 November until Wednesday 2 December

[DB]

That is why we have to react and not get indignant.

I believe the NHS was overwhelmed and will be again this winter. I am aware that there is an increase in out-patient work and lesser procedures being done in private hospitals. My partners private hospital is apparently busier than normal. That might be purely due to the backlog from the last spike/surge. But I think it is also due to the need to free up as much capacity as possible in the NHS hospitals that have intensive care facilities ready for the coming winter.

So we have to 'react' in ways which either make no difference at all, or at most slow down the spread a bit for no clear purpose, but in the process destroying businesses and causing loads of societal issues? As you will have gathered, I don't agree.

Hospitals are always at their busiest in winter. According to the actual statistics, there is no evidence of them likely to be overwhelmed.

 

[Darandio]

That is why we have to react and not get indignant.

I believe the NHS was overwhelmed and will be again this winter. I am aware that there is an increase in out-patient work and lesser procedures being done in private hospitals. My partners private hospital is apparently busier than normal. That might be purely due to the backlog from the last spike/surge. But I think it is also due to the need to free up as much capacity as possible in the NHS hospitals that have intensive care facilities ready for the coming winter.

The government repeatedly stated that the NHS didn't get overwhelmed first time around because of the lockdown. Why do you believe it was?

 

[DB]

The government repeatedly stated that the NHS didn't get overwhelmed first time around because of the lockdown. Why do you believe it was?

And even that government assertion is dodgy as we can't know whether it would have been overwhelmed without the lockdown. The fact that the lockdown occurred at the time of year when respiratory infections would have been on the wane anyway, and that Sweden didn't experience an overload on its hospitals despite no lockdown, means that there is strong cause to question to government narrative on this.

 

[Mag_seven]

Are the Nightingale Hospitals in use - I thought the whole point of them was to take the strain off "normal hospitals" so the health service was not overwhelmed?

 

[Darandio]

Are the Nightingale Hospitals in use - I thought the whole point of them was to take the strain off "normal hospitals" so the health service was not overwhelmed?

Most never even received a patient. That's why i'm struggling to understand the belief from @Peter Sarf that the NHS was overwhelmed.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

Are the Nightingale Hospitals in use - I thought the whole point of them was to take the strain off "normal hospitals" so the health service was not overwhelmed?

The Victorians had isolation hospitals the Nightingales should been resourced up for the Winter for C19 patients only then main hospitals could have run normally as well minimised the onward risk of transmission within the hospital which is still prevalent on a weekly basis. See the weekly surveillance report into respiratory diseases and last week there were 95 outbreaks of C19 in hospitals a figure repeated week after week although the main problems remain care homes with 535 cases showing that we've learnt everything from wave 1 (not).

 

[island]

Are the Nightingale Hospitals in use - I thought the whole point of them was to take the strain off "normal hospitals" so the health service was not overwhelmed?

There was some blurb last month about them being “spun up” and “placed on readiness”, whatever that means. Based on the information I can find, London had some patients for a while but hasn’t had any in the last 6 months. Manchester was closed July to end of October and now is in some use. Glasgow, Birmingham, Harrogate, and Washington have never treated a Covid patient, though the Glasgow and Harrogate facilities were put to some use doing scans and outpatient work. Cardiff peaked at 46 patients and was closed in early June.

 

[greyman42]

That seems to be the best we can hope for perhaps. I hold out hope for a lockdown free season or two as winter gets out of the way. Then it is up to vaccines to prove their worth and the general level of vulnerability in the human race to reduce to a level that is manageable without lockdowns - like flu has become.

We are already at a stage where we can manage without lockdowns. This current lockdown is unnecessary.

 

[Richard Scott]

See the weekly surveillance report into respiratory diseases and last week there were 95 outbreaks of C19 in hospitals a figure repeated week after week although the main problems remain care homes with 535 cases showing that we've learnt everything from wave 1 (not).

It's easy to be critical but it's extremely difficult to stop a virus spreading indoors or stopping it getting indoors in the first place. To be honest those figures sound like chicken feed compared to how many people there are in hospitals and care homes.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

It's easy to be critical but it's extremely difficult to stop a virus spreading indoors or stopping it getting indoors in the first place. To be honest those figures sound like chicken feed compared to how many people there are in hospitals and care homes.

These are last weeks weekly figure and an outbreak is at least two individuals in the same location so number of people are doubled as a minimum. In care homes thats potentially 1000+ OAPs and we know that older individuals are the ones that end up hospitalised. Oh and lets not forget they knew that from the outset hence the shielding yet again we have care homes generating cases driving up hospital bed occupancy which is the key measure there using to justify the lockdown.

 

[Peter Sarf]

And even that government assertion is dodgy as we can't know whether it would have been overwhelmed without the lockdown. The fact that the lockdown occurred at the time of year when respiratory infections would have been on the wane anyway, and that Sweden didn't experience an overload on its hospitals despite no lockdown, means that there is strong cause to question to government narrative on this.

The worrying thing is that, although Sweden went for a more relaxed approach, they are now getting worried this time round apparently. I seem to recall the reason given that Sweden might have had a lower R value back in Spring 2020 was because a larger proportion of the population there are single and live alone. But then that still does not explain why they are getting a more noticeable second wave.

A roll out of a vaccine cannot come soon enough and I hope it has a lasting effect. Perhaps long term we need to review how we live and learn how to (easily/acceptably) reduce risk of spread. The reason I say that is next time we might not be so lucky with a vaccine becoming available so soon. I think it is SARS that still as no vaccine after 20 years ?.

Anything to get away from the need for a blunt instrument like a lockdown.

The Victorians had isolation hospitals the Nightingales should been resourced up for the Winter for C19 patients only then main hospitals could have run normally as well minimised the onward risk of transmission within the hospital which is still prevalent on a weekly basis. See the weekly surveillance report into respiratory diseases and last week there were 95 outbreaks of C19 in hospitals a figure repeated week after week although the main problems remain care homes with 535 cases showing that we've learnt everything from wave 1 (not).

That is something I had forgotten. Isolation hospitals - we have managed for about 100 years without them. Now Covid-19 has come along we need them back or something like them (probably with more equipment). I am not saying we should have kept them open btw !.

 

[DB]

The worrying thing is that, although Sweden went for a more relaxed approach, they are now getting worried this time round apparently. I seem to recall the reason given that Sweden might have had a lower R value back in Spring 2020 was because a larger proportion of the population there are single and live alone. But then that still does not explain why they are getting a more noticeable second wave.

Death rates for Sweden (from Worldometer):



Afraid I'm not seeing the isue here - yes, it's gone up a bit in recent weeks, but it's not a dramatic increase and it's the time of year for respiratory viruses.

It actually looks very similar to the UK graph apart from the increases being less steep (there could be a number of reasons for that);



And, surprise surprise, a quick search finds a load more articles from the past few months claiming that Sweden's strategy is failing. Clearly not true - a quick look at the graphs shows that the increase in deaths in recent weeks is on a far shallower curve in Sweden than in Maskivist countries such as Spain, France and the UK.

 

[6Gman]

That is something I had forgotten. Isolation hospitals - we have managed for about 100 years without them. Now Covid-19 has come along we need them back or something like them (probably with more equipment). I am not saying we should have kept them open btw !.

Just on a point of accuracy as late as 1981 there were still six in the UK; the last closed as recently as 1985!

The problems with using the Nightingales for Covid19, and thus keeping them out of general hospitals include:

1. Staffing them
2. Providing support services (e.g. pathology, pharmacy, specialist support in neurology, cardiology etc - lots of evidence that Covid can lead to complications in such areas)
3. Providing intensive care where patients deteriorate

 

[Peter Sarf]

Death rates for Sweden (from Worldometer):

View attachment 86256

Afraid I'm not seeing the isue here - yes, it's gone up a bit in recent weeks, but it's not a dramatic increase and it's the time of year for respiratory viruses.

It actually looks very similar to the UK graph apart from the increases being less steep (there could be a number of reasons for that);

View attachment 86255

The attachment for Sweden came up 404 not found.

As for the UK graph. It is disheartening to see it rising again even though we can expect it to rise in Winter. It is a bit early for Winter of course which does not bode well for Winter itself. But the good news is perhaps that the graph is not rising so steeply this time. We can expect this gentler rise to happen if we have a lockdown trying to "nip it in the bud".

The following is conjecture on my part but an alternative I offer you is that most of those who were going to die have done so already. That would assume far more of us have had Covid-19 than we realise. That would eventually bring Covid-19 in to the league of just another Flu. I hope it does end up like that but we have to weather the storm battering the NHS first and a Lockdown seems to be the chosen weapon by many countries.

 

[DB]

The attachment for Sweden came up 404 not found.

As for the UK graph. It is disheartening to see it rising again even though we can expect it to rise in Winter. It is a bit early for Winter of course which does not bode well for Winter itself. But the good news is perhaps that the graph is not rising so steeply this time. We can expect this gentler rise to happen if we have a lockdown trying to "nip it in the bud".

The following is conjecture on my part but an alternative I offer you is that most of those who were going to die have done so already. That would assume far more of us have had Covid-19 than we realise. That would eventually bring Covid-19 in to the league of just another Flu. I hope it does end up like that but we have to weather the storm battering the NHS first and a Lockdown seems to be the chosen weapon by many countries.

I've fixed the Sweden graph.

But seriously, are you surprised that deaths from a seasonal respiratory infection are increasing in mid-November? It's what happens every year.

 

[Peter Sarf]

Just on a point of accuracy as late as 1981 there were still six in the UK; the last closed as recently as 1985!

The problems with using the Nightingales for Covid19, and thus keeping them out of general hospitals include:

1. Staffing them
2. Providing support services (e.g. pathology, pharmacy, specialist support in neurology, cardiology etc - lots of evidence that Covid can lead to complications in such areas)
3. Providing intensive care where patients deteriorate

Well I never. Right under the nose of my distant memory .

Yes I too have heard that the nightingales could have suffered from a potential lack of staff and equipment - especially for intensive care. I can see the main benefit of the nightingale hospitals being to provide basic care that prevents the need for ventilators and other intensive care equipment. There have been some advances in the basic hospital care for Covid-19 (drugs iirc). And that has been found to reduce the need for patients to go on to intensive care. How effective that is I do not know.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 22 Nov 2020 ==

I've fixed the Sweden graph.

But seriously, are you surprised that deaths from a seasonal respiratory infection are increasing in mid-November? It's what happens every year.

Yes I see the graph now. Interesting how Sweden's second wave appears to already have flattened off. A lot less dramatic than their first wave.

It does not surprise me about the timing of a rise at all - it is to be expected. But how big ?. Of course I would believe it would be an even bigger rise without a lockdown.

 

[DB]

It does not surprise me about the timing of a rise at all - it is to be expected. But how big ?. Of course I would believe it would be an even bigger rise without a lockdown.

And yet, Sweden doesn't have a lockdown, but has seen a less noticeable increase than a number of countries which do have lockdowns.

 

[Peter Sarf]

And yet, Sweden doesn't have a lockdown, but has seen a less noticeable increase than a number of countries which do have lockdowns.

If it is true that a lot (majority ?) of people in Sweden live in single households then that would be an explanation. They would have to go out to stand ANY chance of getting infected !.

I also gather that rather than a lockdown the Swedish government was relying on people to be more self regulating. It does seem to be a more Northern European thing that there are more rules generally and people are used to it. Whereas we British tend to be more "flexible" !. Which I am proud of but it might be biting us at the moment.

 

[bramling]

If it is true that a lot (majority ?) of people in Sweden live in single households then that would be an explanation. They would have to go out to stand ANY chance of getting infected !.

I also gather that rather than a lockdown the Swedish government was relying on people to be more self regulating. It does seem to be a more Northern European thing that there are more rules generally and people are used to it. Whereas we British tend to be more "flexible" !.

I don’t really buy the notion that British people are less used to rules. In Britain one only has to do something as innocent as get a camera out or park in someone else’s favourite parking spot to incur wrath, the notion that Britain is some libertarian paradise is a bit wide of the mark in practice. And the country leaves 2020 rather further down that path that when it entered 2020, thanks to Covid providing a grandstand for some people’s authoritarian tendencies.

 

[Peter Sarf]

I don’t really buy the notion that British people are less used to rules. In Britain only has to get a camera out or park in someone else’s favourite spot to incur wrath, the notion that Britain is some libertarian paradise is a bit wide of the mark in practice. And the country leaves 2020 rather further down that path that when it entered 2020, thanks to Covid providing a grandstand for some people’s authoritarian tendencies.

On the other hand you might be correct. We British make lots of complaints about all the EU rules and then some tell me that in Europe they do not bother adhering to the rules anyway !.

Mind you I wonder what Singapore is like. No chewing gum and a real chance of getting nicked for walking across a road on a red pedestrian light. Got a few warnings from the locals on that one. Nice place mind you.

I get the feeling though that our British/English lockdown is not as dramatic or strictly enforced as in some other countries.

 

[Ianno87]

I don’t really buy the notion that British people are less used to rules. In Britain one only has to do something as innocent as get a camera out or park in someone else’s favourite parking spot to incur wrath, the notion that Britain is some libertarian paradise is a bit wide of the mark in practice. And the country leaves 2020 rather further down that path that when it entered 2020, thanks to Covid providing a grandstand for some people’s authoritarian tendencies.

In Britain, it's more the case we have an obsession about enforcing made-up rules. Such as "it's illegal to have a bonfire on a Sunday", "you can't park outside my house", "taking a photo of a train is illegal" etc etc.

 

[Peter Sarf]

In Britain, it's more the case we have an obsession about enforcing made-up rules. Such as "it's illegal to have a bonfire on a Sunday", "you can't park outside my house", "taking a photo of a train is illegal" etc etc.

That's why a lockdown is so unpalatable then . I mean its "not my rule". Although the lockdown's rule-pedigree is a little, how shall we say, tainted by the do as I say not as I do leadership .

 

[bramling]

In Britain, it's more the case we have an obsession about enforcing made-up rules. Such as "it's illegal to have a bonfire on a Sunday", "you can't park outside my house", "taking a photo of a train is illegal" etc etc.

Yes that’s what I was alluding to. All three of the above are perfect examples, and there’s doubtless loads more where they came from.

Perhaps it’s because the traditional reserved British culture means many people *don’t* challenge such nonsense, which allows a subset of people to get away with it as a means of getting their own way. One doesn’t have to go far to encounter such behaviour unfortunately.



== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 22 Nov 2020 ==

That's why a lockdown is so unpalatable then . I mean its "not my rule". Although the lockdown's rule-pedigree is a little, how shall we say, tainted by the do as I say not as I do leadership .

The government lost its credibility when Cummings went to Durham (and especially Barny), and also when we had the spectacle of Boris, Cummings and Hancock all with Covid, and ISTR Whitty with symptoms too.

If that lot couldn’t look after their own safety then why should I think they’re fit to guide me on mine

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

Just on a point of accuracy as late as 1981 there were still six in the UK; the last closed as recently as 1985!

The problems with using the Nightingales for Covid19, and thus keeping them out of general hospitals include:

1. Staffing them
2. Providing support services (e.g. pathology, pharmacy, specialist support in neurology, cardiology etc - lots of evidence that Covid can lead to complications in such areas)
3. Providing intensive care where patients deteriorate

In April agree it was going to be a stretch but did they found the medical equipment needed to equip them that was clearly the case so you can't tell me they all just built for show. Then they had six months to come up with a resourcing plan which could have been having cohort of NHS staff that could be redeployed along with services medical corps and private sector. The goal is to keep infected people separated from hospitals so they can function normally.

 

[Jamesrob637]

There was some blurb last month about them being “spun up” and “placed on readiness”, whatever that means. Based on the information I can find, London had some patients for a while but hasn’t had any in the last 6 months. Manchester was closed July to end of October and now is in some use. Glasgow, Birmingham, Harrogate, and Washington have never treated a Covid patient, though the Glasgow and Harrogate facilities were put to some use doing scans and outpatient work. Cardiff peaked at 46 patients and was closed in early June.

Manchester's is in use but not for COVID patients, and is sparsely filled.

 

[Peter Sarf]

So it looks like it is back to Tiers then after this current lockdown. Better than an extended lockdown. But seems it is stricter tiers I thought Bojo said but I am not sure ?. Nothing about visiting relatives for Christmas. Tweaked pub closing times closing at 11pm "just like the good ole days". We know vaccines are almost with us and I knew a roll out would not be instant . More promises about test and trace or whatever it is called this week . I will be happy if we are out of the woods a year after this really started biting in the UK. At least it is an end for lockdown(s) until after Christmas I reckon. So we should not enjoy ourselves too much - maybe .

 

[yorksrob]

So it looks like it is back to Tiers then after this current lockdown. Better than an extended lockdown. But seems it is stricter tiers I thought Bojo said but I am not sure ?. Nothing about visiting relatives for Christmas. Tweaked pub closing times closing at 11pm "just like the good ole days". We know vaccines are almost with us and I knew a roll out would not be instant . More promises about test and trace or whatever it is called this week . I will be happy if we are out of the woods a year after this really started biting in the UK. At least it is an end for lockdown(s) until after Christmas I reckon. So we should not enjoy ourselves too much - maybe .

Tier 3 sounds worryingly like a lockdown in all but name to me.

 

[Peter Sarf]

Tier 3 sounds worryingly like a lockdown in all but name to me.

I suppose it would make sense really, unless they invented a tier 4 to match lockdown. But then again at least they have not gone stricter, perish the thought !.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

So it looks like it is back to Tiers then after this current lockdown. Better than an extended lockdown. But seems it is stricter tiers I thought Bojo said but I am not sure ?. Nothing about visiting relatives for Christmas. Tweaked pub closing times closing at 11pm "just like the good ole days". We know vaccines are almost with us and I knew a roll out would not be instant . More promises about test and trace or whatever it is called this week . I will be happy if we are out of the woods a year after this really started biting in the UK. At least it is an end for lockdown(s) until after Christmas I reckon. So we should not enjoy ourselves too much - maybe .

Last orders at 10PM with an hour drinking up so marginally better but thats only in Tier 1 and 2 and in the latter you need have a substantial meal to be permitted to imbibe. So where back to wetherspoons and other chain pub eateries getting to open and the community pubs staying locked up.

 

[greyman42]

Last orders at 10PM with an hour drinking up so marginally better but thats only in Tier 1 and 2 and in the latter you need have a substantial meal to be permitted to imbibe. So where back to wetherspoons and other chain pub eateries getting to open and the community pubs staying locked up.

For tier 2, after early evening when people are most likely to eat, i can see the pubs been more or less empty so how many will actually stay open till 10PM. The hours between 2 and 5 are also going to be very quiet.