Great Eastern Main Line and Southend Victoria Line December 2021 timetable consultation

[iphone76]

I just noticed on the Greater Anglia website, they have published a December 2021 timetable consultation.

Great Eastern Mainline Dec 21 Timetable consultation | Greater Anglia

www.greateranglia.co.uk

The main focus of our proposals is to take advantage of the benefits of our new trains to optimise seating capacity, improve performance (maintaining the excellent punctuality of recent months) and reduce journey times where practical. In general, further increases in train frequency are not currently possible because of rail infrastructure capacity constraints, but there may be some routes or times of day where small changes are achievable

Other key considerations are the expected levels of passenger demand and travel patterns as we emerge from the pandemic. Although rail travel is expected to remain popular and a key part of the economic recovery and the decarbonisation agenda, it is clear that the growth trajectory has already altered and it is likely that the recovery in patronage will include some shifts in the different markets for commuting, business and leisure travel. Our aim will be to strike the right balance with the December 2021 timetable, to encourage more and more people to take the train, support customers and communities across our region and keep on delivering a reliable and resilient train service

Having taken a quick look at the proposals for the Southend Branch, I was very underwhelmed. I'm off to work now, so will take a more in depth look tomorrow.

 

[greaterangrier]

I just noticed on the Greater Anglia website, they have published a December 2021 timetable consultation.

Great Eastern Mainline Dec 21 Timetable consultation | Greater Anglia

www.greateranglia.co.uk

Having taken a quick look at the proposals for the Southend Branch, I was very underwhelmed. I'm off to work now, so will take a more in depth

Quite disappointed that they have removed the Colchester Town - London direct trains as well as the Braintree trains. I forsee a slowing down of the Ipswich and Clacton stoppers just to cope with the removal of those calling points on those routes.

 

[southern442]

It seems to me as if the Norwich intercity trains will now all be stopping at Chelmsford, and one will be stopping also at Witham and Shenfield now? Or are they introducing an additional service from London to cope with the loss of the Braintree services?

 

[Ianno87]

Under Ipswich-Peterborough it says "Hourly Sunday service, similar to current service", which is presumably a typo given the service is two-hourly every day of the week.

 

[30907]

It seems to me as if the Norwich intercity trains will now all be stopping at Chelmsford, and one will be stopping also at Witham and Shenfield now? Or are they introducing an additional service from London to cope with the loss of the Braintree services?

Iin view of the planned acceleration to Norwich, which would be challenging with a couple of extra stops - I wonder if there will be a half hourly LST-Witham, keeping the Norwich stops unchanged.
I realise that's an extra tph, but I think it fits the description.

 

[Bald Rick]

Tenner says it doesn’t happen in December 2021.

 

[Alfie1014]

It’s difficult to make much sense out of it , (except Braintree shuttle off peak and no fourth train to Southend Vic) without the detail.

 

[43074]

Looks like after all the ceremony of 2016 what they are actually proposing is a slightly faster (in some cases) version of the timetable introduced in 2010 but with 4tph from Ipswich and no direct Braintree trains, how underwhelming. With the bidding date to Network Rail being next March (subject to @Bald Rick's caveat) it's not so much a consultation as a gauge of public opinion as there isn't time to meaningfully act on the responses from a timetable planning perspective before March anyway, if what emerges is that substantial redrafting is required.

 

[Ianno87]

In theory, removal of through Braintree services would 'free up' the Main Line timetable a fair amount; the time it takes a train to traverse from Witham to Braintree and back again (a fair chunk of an hour) must 'fix' a fair amount of the rest of GEML around it.

 

[James90012]

Losing an hourly through service for an hourly shuttle is a difficult sell - would be preferable to move to an all day 30-minute interval shuttle as part of the trade off. I think it would be possible if the intermediate stations are kept hourly to get the journey time down. Resources would be largely the same although would be much tighter.

These kind of changes will just increase the level of 'rail heading' and people driving to Witham etc rather than taking the train the whole way so is not to be sniffed at. Historic entries and exits at Braintree suggest a fall in usage, which this kind of change will just accelerate.

 

[Ianno87]

Losing an hourly through service for an hourly shuttle is a difficult sell - would be preferable to move to an all day 30-minute interval shuttle as part of the trade off. I think it would be possible if the intermediate stations are kept hourly to get the journey time down. Resources would be largely the same although would be much tighter.

These kind of changes will just increase the level of 'rail heading' and people driving to Witham etc rather than taking the train the whole way so is not to be sniffed at. Historic entries and exits at Braintree suggest a fall in usage, which this kind of change will just accelerate.

I think even if the intermediates were served hourly* you still couldn't do 2tph on the current single line.

*Freeport would probably justify both 2tph.

No doubt part of the recent usage fall may be attributable to the never-ending GEML weekend engineering works. Note also that the service is already a shuttle on Sundays; it would be interesting to see how usage compares.


Cynically, if people drive to Witham, then the traffic isn't lost to rail, and some parking revenue comes in the door....

 

[47421]

page 10 - "emerging constraints in terms of rail infrastructure capability and capacity". Really, it is weak, they had 4 years operating the franchise before they signed the 2016 franchise agreement and put out all their grandiose statements about what they would deliver. Reality, marginal timetable improvements only, and those delivered years late.

"Are you planning to deliver some of the outstanding aspirations outlined when the franchise was awarded in 2016?

There are a number of aims for more frequent services, such as more off peak services on the Southend to London, Norwich to London, Hertford East to London and Ipswich to Peterborough lines, plus direct services between Lowestoft and London and Sudbury and Colchester Town, which have not yet proved practical to implement. In most cases, this reflects emerging constraints in terms of rail infrastructure capability and capacity. We will continue to look at opportunities to realise these aspirations, but in the short to medium term, these aims are unlikely to be delivered. The exact levels of additional capacity provided will also now be different, given the changes in the wider industry situation (including available infrastructure capacity, the post-COVID position, the need to further optimise performance on a busy network and industry investment plans). Options for further changes will also be heavily influenced by future rail infrastructure investment decisions and the way in which rail services recover and develop after the pandemic"

 

[Watershed]

Reality, marginal timetable improvements only, and those delivered years late.

Being generous, they are suggesting a timetable with a higher frequency than is the case right now (sometimes substantially so), at the same time saving a few minutes in journey time, and they expect it to be as punctual and reliable as the current timetable. If that can be realised, that's quite an achievement.

I think you have to let go of any notions of pre-Covid promises. The 'brave new world' will be rather different in lots of aspects, and the fact that they are proposing going back to pre-Covid frequencies at all is somewhat of an achievement. It's certainly more than can be said for lots of other areas.

 

[47421]

Well yes obviously we have to forget most of what GA promised for all kinds of reasons, mostly they were absurdly optimistic about (1) passenger volumes (2) ability of Stadler and Bombardier to deliver new trains on time (3) deliverability of their timetable promises. But I don't think covid makes trains run slower, and the proposed speed improvements are trivial compared to the step change they promised: "10% reduction in average journey times", and see below for the service specification per the Franchise Agreement. Real shame that the Norwich London is not being speeded up commensurate with what the Stadlers are clearly capable of. As the culmination of 10 years work by Abellio in Anglia it is a poor outcome

 

[30907]

Looks like after all the ceremony of 2016 what they are actually proposing is a slightly faster (in some cases) version of the timetable introduced in 2010 but with 4tph from Ipswich and no direct Braintree trains, how underwhelming.

Only 3tph offpeak, much as now therefore.

 

[Class 170101]

Was the Braintree branch ever double track or did it ever have passing loops?

If a loop or a section of double track is installed, this would allow a half hourly frequency shuttle to operate.

The best you will get today with the current infrastructure is a 40 minute service on the branch.

 

[Bald Rick]

page 10 - "emerging constraints in terms of rail infrastructure capability and capacity

Well they are hardly going to write “we knew there were infrastructure constraints that would more than likely make the proposition undeliverable, but the nature of the franchise agreement means that as long as we can show that the issues were outside of our control and we took all reasonable efforts, then the agreement will be altered”

 

[Railperf]

Iin view of the planned acceleration to Norwich, which would be challenging with a couple of extra stops - I wonder if there will be a half hourly LST-Witham, keeping the Norwich stops unchanged.
I realise that's an extra tph, but I think it fits the description.

Liverpool Street to Norwich can be achieved in 1h45 very easily with Stratford Chelmsford, Colchester Manningtree Ipswich Stowmarket and Diss Stops. If you added Witham it would still be achievable in under 1h50 min!
It looks to me as though there is a lack of confidence the full fleet of Class 720's will be in service by December 2021. I reckon Dec 2022 more realistic for faster journeys.
But I guess more freight needs to avoid GEML south of Ipswich to make that happen?
From my own personal observations late running freight causes a lot of problems at Stratford where it has to cross onto the North London Line.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 19 Nov 2020 ==

Well yes obviously we have to forget most of what GA promised for all kinds of reasons, mostly they were absurdly optimistic about (1) passenger volumes (2) ability of Stadler and Bombardier to deliver new trains on time (3) deliverability of their timetable promises. But I don't think covid makes trains run slower, and the proposed speed improvements are trivial compared to the step change they promised: "10% reduction in average journey times", and see below for the service specification per the Franchise Agreement. Real shame that the Norwich London is not being speeded up commensurate with what the Stadlers are clearly capable of. As the culmination of 10 years work by Abellio in Anglia it is a poor outcome

Covid and the message to work from home rather than commute has killed any need for faster or more frequent journeys. You could offer Norwich commuters / citizens a half hour faster journey to London tomorrow - but would it improve customer numbers or raise any additional revenue until the Pandemic is over?

 

[Class 170101]

Hasn't Freight also got slower with greater trailing tonnages too. That won't help with timings if so.

 

[306024]

In theory, removal of through Braintree services would 'free up' the Main Line timetable a fair amount; the time it takes a train to traverse from Witham to Braintree and back again (a fair chunk of an hour) must 'fix' a fair amount of the rest of GEML around it.

That’s true, but it‘s not just the Braintree branch. The Southminster, Sudbury, Walton, and Harwich branches all have single lines too, as is Colchester Town station. Even the main line has the single line Trowse swing bridge to negotiate. Getting good connections in both directions, whilst making efficient use of rolling stock and traincrew, is a challenge and in most cases something the current timetable does quite well. All of which is without the added difficulties of pathing freight.

Inevitably in any timetable change there will ‘winners and losers’ for the want of a better phrase. Journey time improvements, whilst welcome for many, are only part of the story. The devil is always in the detail.

 

[Bald Rick]

I’m looking forward to seeing the timetable. Also the reaction from the Hon Member for Braintree (who will surely have been warmed up).

 

[306024]

I’m looking forward to seeing the timetable. Also the reaction from the Hon Member for Braintree (who will surely have been warmed up).

I’m not , but yes can’t comment until then. The Hon Member for Witham should have a bit more time to consider it too but that probably won’t happen.

The Witham and Braintree Rail Users Association will be recruiting though.

 

[Railperf]

I’m looking forward to seeing the timetable. Also the reaction from the Hon Member for Braintree (who will surely have been warmed up).

I'd like to see what the draft timetable looks like. The current one is padded enough to allow fast recovery when things go awry - at the expense of end to end journey times that are barely faster than steam days. The line is virtually at cxapacity now, so the only way to speed up the long disatance trains is to reduce the journey times of the stoppers in front and probably reduce the amount of trains overall. Would like to see more use of Stratford 10 and 10a to allow some overlap for down stoppers. A 3 min headway when the rain in front stops for a minute always means the following train is crawling into Stratford when using P10 only! But not sure if the signalling/ headways will allow that fast an approach to 10a prob on yellows while a train is still in P10.

 

[Ianno87]

That’s true, but it‘s not just the Braintree branch. The Southminster, Sudbury, Walton, and Harwich branches all have single lines too, as is Colchester Town station. Even the main line has the single line Trowse swing bridge to negotiate. Getting good connections in both directions, whilst making efficient use of rolling stock and traincrew, is a challenge and in most cases something the current timetable does quite well. All of which is without the added difficulties of pathing freight.

Inevitably in any timetable change there will ‘winners and losers’ for the want of a better phrase. Journey time improvements, whilst welcome for many, are only part of the story. The devil is always in the detail.

I do think the 2010 timetable is an 'unsung hero' in how lots of connections work out, e.g.

-Up and Down Norwich trains calling Manningtree simultaneously to give a Harwich connection
-Good connections at Marks Tey to/from Sudbury
-Stowmarket gets one direct train to Liverpool Street per hour, and a connection at Ipswich to give 2tph
-Bury St Edmunds - Stowmarket - Norwich connections also work out well
Etc.

I can see how piroritising other things make existing things work less well.

 

[65477]

This is fairly bad for me.

I use Sudbury for journeys north and the we already knew that the original committment to running trains to Colchester from Sudbury had been dropped. Better use of the bi-modes might have been a Sudbury - Harwich service? That also has some tourism possibilities around the river Stour etc.

The bigger issue is Braintree and loss of through trains. As I get old the thought of having to carry luggage across Witham station is not attractive at all. I think in future some of my journeys will be by bus to Witham.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 20 Nov 2020 ==

If this comment

No doubt part of the recent usage fall may be attributable to the never-ending GEML weekend engineering works. Note also that the service is already a shuttle on Sundays; it would be interesting to see how usage compares.

refers to the Braintree branch then the fall off in numbers seem to directly correlate to the removal of free parking at Freeport (as was) so the second half of Ianno87's quote already has come true I know of a number of people who now (pre Covid) drive to Kelvedon, Marks Tey or Witham who used to use Freeport.

 

[Bikeman78]

Liverpool Street to Norwich can be achieved in 1h45 very easily with Stratford Chelmsford, Colchester Manningtree Ipswich Stowmarket and Diss Stops. If you added Witham it would still be achievable in under 1h50 min!

Back in the days of the class 86, one of the two off peak trains took 1h40. Can you remind me where it stopped? I think it was Colchester, Ipswich and possibly Diss as well. From what you have said, I would expect a class 745 to be able to achieve 1h40 with stops at Manningtree and Stowmarket as well.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 20 Nov 2020 ==

I think even if the intermediates were served hourly* you still couldn't do 2tph on the current single line.

I agree. It takes 15 minutes from Braintree to Witham calling all stations. So a round trip, with three mins turn round at each end, equals 36 minutes. If you want to run a second round trip you need another six minutes turn round time leaving 18 minutes travelling time. I don't think that Braintree to Witham can be done in nine minutes non stop.

 

[306024]

I do think the 2010 timetable is an 'unsung hero' in how lots of connections work out, e.g.

-Up and Down Norwich trains calling Manningtree simultaneously to give a Harwich connection
-Good connections at Marks Tey to/from Sudbury
-Stowmarket gets one direct train to Liverpool Street per hour, and a connection at Ipswich to give 2tph
-Bury St Edmunds - Stowmarket - Norwich connections also work out well
Etc.

I can see how piroritising other things make existing things work less well.

The Olympics were the driving force for the Dec 2010 timetable. All GE electric services could be strengthened to 12 cars if necessary without re-writing the timetable, which then gave 18 months familiarisation for staff before the big event. One of the reasons the Olympics all went so smoothly.

Other connections are:
Southend trains passing at Wickford to provide a Southminster connection off every other service.
Colchester - Walton trains connecting with Norwich services at Colchester, whilst also connecting at Thorpe-le-Soken with Clacton services. And resourced with just two units.
Good reverse connections at Witham with Colchester services, and at Colchester between Clacton and Norwich services.

The only connections that are not so good are reverse connections at Shenfield with Southend services, but you can’t have everything, all timetables are ultimately a compromise.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 20 Nov 2020 ==

Back in the days of the class 86, one of the two off peak trains took 1h40. Can you remind me where it stopped? I think it was Colchester, Ipswich and possibly Diss as well. From what you have said, I would expect a class 745 to be able to achieve 1h40 with stops at Manningtree and Stowmarket as well.

I agree. It takes 15 minutes from Braintree to Witham calling all stations. So a round trip, with three mins turn round at each end, equals 36 minutes. If you want to run a second round trip you need another six minutes turn round time leaving 18 minutes travelling time. I don't think that Braintree to Witham can be done in nine minutes non stop.

1h40 was Colchester and Ipswich only if memory serrves.

3 minute turnrounds at each end would require issuing drivers with roller skates. The new trains are the equivalent of a 6 car unit, so 5 minutes to change ends is more likely. That uses up 20 minutes each hour going nowhere, leaving 40 minutes for running. The only way you would get two trains per hour would be to move Braintree closer to Witham.

 

[Bald Rick]

I do think the 2010 timetable is an 'unsung hero' in how lots of connections work out, e.g.

-Up and Down Norwich trains calling Manningtree simultaneously to give a Harwich connection
-Good connections at Marks Tey to/from Sudbury
-Stowmarket gets one direct train to Liverpool Street per hour, and a connection at Ipswich to give 2tph
-Bury St Edmunds - Stowmarket - Norwich connections also work out well
Etc.

I can see how piroritising other things make existing things work less well.

Agreed, it’s a great TT.

The Olympics were the driving force for the Dec 2010 timetable. All GE electric services could be strengthened to 12 cars if necessary without re-writing the timetable, which then gave 18 months familiarisation for staff before the big event. One of the reasons it all went so smoothly.

The first 6 weeks of the TT weren’t smooth at all! Although it went well after that, except for all the units out with snow damage

 

[James90012]

3 minute turnrounds at each end would require issuing drivers with roller skates. The new trains are the equivalent of a 6 car unit, so 5 minutes to change ends is more likely. That uses up 20 minutes each hour going nowhere, leaving 40 minutes for running. The only way you would get two trains per hour would be to move Braintree closer to Witham.

Or raise the linespeed, but appreciate that would likely save a handful of minutes and still leave it incredibly tight. Double drivers could avoid the turnaround time albeit at cost.

Perhaps a 45 minute interval service is worth considering, though that would likely cause havoc with regular connections and make for awkward peak to off peak transitions.

It is what it is!

 

[306024]

The first 6 weeks of the TT weren’t smooth at all! Although it went well after that, except for all the units out with snow damage

Changing the timetable in December just to suit the French skiing season was never a great idea! It’s stood the test of time since though.