Where could TPE Class 397 ('Nova 2') go in the medium term?

[Philip]

Are these units likely to go anywhere else in the medium term? Avanti West Coast and LNWR have the Pendolinos, Desiros and future orders for different trains in the pipeline; LNER, GWR and TPE North are both sorted long term with the 801 and 802; MML and Hope Valley are both a long way from electrification. Difficult to see a different fleet of trains replacing these on the 'Scottish Mancunian' and any new coaches built will most likely be for lengthening the existing services they operate on.

 

[NoMorePacers]

There isn't really anywhere else that requires/is suited for a fairly small (12 isn't a massive number in the grand scheme of things) 125mph-capable 5 car EMU on the network.

Scottish Mancunian or bust for these things from the looks of it.

 

[Bletchleyite]

I'd expect them to stay where they are at least for now as they are well-suited to that. The only other place they might be of use would be as the longer-distance services on an electrified Chiltern Line (i.e. basically directly replacing the LHCS fleet, and there aren't many of those either so a small fleet would work), or perhaps Scotland if the likes of Edinburgh/Glasgow-Inverness/Aberdeen get wired, but most likely Chiltern will just go for a homogeneous fleet of something like Aventras.

 

[4-SUB 4732]

Are these units likely to go anywhere else in the medium term? Avanti West Coast and LNWR have the Pendolinos, Desiros and future orders for different trains in the pipeline; LNER, GWR and TPE North are both sorted long term with the 801 and 802; MML and Hope Valley are both a long way from electrification. Difficult to see a different fleet of trains replacing these on the 'Scottish Mancunian' and any new coaches built will most likely be for lengthening the existing services they operate on.

Are we assuming the Pendolinos and future Avanti West Coast Hitachi stuff will be somewhat surplus to requirements when HS2 opens?

If so, one must assume that micro-fleet of electric 80x ordered for Birmingham and Liverpool would fit perfectly on the Manchester - Scotland, especially if rolled into the West Coast franchise.

Where you put the 397s? Well, if you do get wires across the Pennines entirely thats probably it; or perhaps something radical? Into LNER to work some services, allowing 80x to work the peak Peterborough trains currently run by GN?

 

[Bletchleyite]

If so, one must assume that micro-fleet of electric 80x ordered for Birmingham and Liverpool would fit perfectly on the Manchester - Scotland, especially if rolled into the West Coast franchise.

One of the HS2 proposals I've seen had that turned into a Euston-Manchester-Scotland, which would presumably use Pendolinos or their successors.

 

[4-SUB 4732]

One of the HS2 proposals I've seen had that turned into a Euston-Manchester-Scotland, which would presumably use Pendolinos or their successors.

I noticed a suggestion elsewhere that they’ve worked out disgorging people at Piccadilly and Oxford Road off a 9/390 is a woeful idea and are unlikely to proceed.

 

[JonathanH]

Are these units likely to go anywhere else in the medium term? Avanti West Coast and LNWR have the Pendolinos, Desiros and future orders for different trains in the pipeline; LNER, GWR and TPE North are both sorted long term with the 801 and 802; MML and Hope Valley are both a long way from electrification. Difficult to see a different fleet of trains replacing these on the 'Scottish Mancunian' and any new coaches built will most likely be for lengthening the existing services they operate on.

What is the reason for asking the question? The 397s have only just entered service on a route they have specifically been procured for = eight diagrams for Manchester to Scotland and two for Liverpool to Glasgow.

If there was a real downturn in travel long term, there could be an argument for only running 1tph between Preston and Glasgow - ie the London - Trent Valley - Glasgow service. The 397s wouldn't then be needed as Northern would cover the demand between Preston and Manchester and between Preston and Liverpool. But if that happened there would be loads of spare rolling stock and I'm not sure the 397s would have any future.

One of the HS2 proposals I've seen had that turned into a Euston-Manchester-Scotland, which would presumably use Pendolinos or their successors.

Yes, or indeed, if there were major cut backs on Avanti, one possibility would appear to be running a Euston - Birmingham - Manchester - Scotland service combining the second Birmingham and Manchester service from Euston and removing Cross Country completely from the Birmingham to Manchester route and TPE from the Manchester to Scotland route. The bare minimum Avanti service would be something like 1tph Manchester direct, 1tph Liverpool direct, 1tph Glasgow direct, 1 tph Birmingham and 1tph Euston - Birmingham - Manchester - Scotland.

 

[Bletchleyite]

If there was a real downturn in travel long term, there could be an argument for only running 1tph between Preston and Glasgow - ie the London - Trent Valley - Glasgow service. The 397s wouldn't then be needed as Northern would cover the demand between Preston and Manchester and between Preston and Liverpool.

You'd still want a WCML to Edinburgh service even if that went down to 0.5tph.

 

[JonathanH]

You'd still want a WCML to Edinburgh service even if that went down to 0.5tph.

No, change at Glasgow or do what they used to do with the HSTs and go in and out of Glasgow, serving both Glasgow and Edinburgh. Worked fine in the 1990s.

 

[Bletchleyite]

No, change at Glasgow or do what they used to do with the HSTs and go in and out of Glasgow, serving both Glasgow and Edinburgh. Worked fine in the 1990s.

Um, in the 1990s ICXC operated direct WCML-Edinburgh services. Not from Euston I'll give you, but WCML-Edinburgh isn't about Euston as you can go from Kings Cross, it's about further north.

 

[JonathanH]

Um, in the 1990s ICXC operated direct WCML-Edinburgh services. Not from Euston I'll give you, but WCML-Edinburgh isn't about Euston as you can go from Kings Cross, it's about further north.

Yes, they did but both the Cornish Scot and Wessex Scot formed of HSTs reversed at Glasgow Central. The Devon Scot, Midland Scot and Sussex Scot ran direct via the curve at Carstairs.

 

[Philip]

What is the reason for asking the question? The 397s have only just entered service on a route they have specifically been procured for = eight diagrams for Manchester to Scotland and two for Liverpool to Glasgow.

If there was a real downturn in travel long term, there could be an argument for only running 1tph between Preston and Glasgow - ie the London - Trent Valley - Glasgow service. The 397s wouldn't then be needed as Northern would cover the demand between Preston and Manchester and between Preston and Liverpool. But if that happened there would be loads of spare rolling stock and I'm not sure the 397s would have any future.


Yes, or indeed, if there were major cut backs on Avanti, one possibility would appear to be running a Euston - Birmingham - Manchester - Scotland service combining the second Birmingham and Manchester service from Euston and removing Cross Country completely from the Birmingham to Manchester route and TPE from the Manchester to Scotland route. The bare minimum Avanti service would be something like 1tph Manchester direct, 1tph Liverpool direct, 1tph Glasgow direct, 1 tph Birmingham and 1tph Euston - Birmingham - Manchester - Scotland.

Well it seems quite rare to have a fleet of trains entirely confined to such a small route network.

Perhaps if these get passed for 125mph running and long distance travel doesn't recover to what it was, then a joint pool in TPE and Avanti between 397s and Pendolinos may be an idea? So run the quietest Manchester-London trains using 397s and the busier Manc-Scots services with 390s?

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 18 Nov 2020 ==

No, change at Glasgow or do what they used to do with the HSTs and go in and out of Glasgow, serving both Glasgow and Edinburgh. Worked fine in the 1990s.

If Avanti retained with Euston-Trent Valley-Glasgow, then surely it'd be better to run your proposed Euston-Birmingham-Manchester-Scotland into Edinburgh direct?

 

[JonathanH]

Well it seems quite rare to have a fleet of trains entirely confined to such a small route network.

I'm not sure that is a problem that needs a solution. There are loads of fleets which cover a smaller route network than the 397s.

Perhaps if these get passed for 125mph running and long distance travel doesn't recover to what it was, then a joint pool in TPE and Avanti between 397s and Pendolinos may be an idea? So run the quietest Manchester-London trains using 397s and the busier Manc-Scots services with 390s?

That sounds like a solution looking for a problem. You would have to have more staff trained on the 397s, they would not have the same performance. I don't really see why it would even be considered.

 

[Purple Orange]

No reason why they shouldn’t remain on Manchester/Liverpool to Glasgow/Edinburgh until there is a fundamental change to the route, if say WCML Manchester-Scotland services entered Manchester via the HS2 Airport-Piccadilly tunnel.

But if they were moved elsewhere, what would serve the Manchester/Liverpool-Glasgow/Edinburgh route? 7-car 80X IETs?

 

[Philip]

No reason why they shouldn’t remain on Manchester/Liverpool to Glasgow/Edinburgh until there is a fundamental change to the route, if say WCML Manchester-Scotland services entered Manchester via the HS2 Airport-Piccadilly tunnel.

But if they were moved elsewhere, what would serve the Manchester/Liverpool-Glasgow/Edinburgh route? 7-car 80X IETs?

390s once Avanti have finished with them?

Perhaps the 397s are a shoe-in for the London-Brum-Manc-Scotland service mentioned above, assuming more of them are built.

 

[ABB125]

Whilst I don't think they'll be going anywhere anytime soon, my suggestion would be the Trent Valley semi-fast LNR service.

 

[Purple Orange]

390s once Avanti have finished with them?

Perhaps the 397s are a shoe-in for the London-Brum-Manc-Scotland service mentioned above, assuming more of them are built.

So by the time Avanti have finished with the Pendolinos, HS2 units will be operating. I’d have thought we would see procurement of new units anyway by that time, with the 397s potentially having served 20 years.

 

[Domh245]

So by the time Avanti have finished with the Pendolinos, HS2 units will be operating. I’d have thought we would see procurement of new units anyway by that time, with the 397s potentially having served 20 years.

Based on the 332 and 333s, the 397s may be coming to the end of their practical life by that point anyway!

 

[Purple Orange]

Based on the 332 and 333s, the 397s may be coming to the end of their practical life by that point anyway!

Exactly, the 397s will start and end their career on the north WCML, probably to be replaced by a variant of the classic compatible HS2 trains, which will probably also be a variant of what eventually runs NPR services, as both will use existing infrastructure.