Life after the end of "lockdown" 2.0

[sheff1]

There was some discussion on the radio suggesting that the tiers after lockdown would be set by region (e.g. North West England) rather than by county or council area to reduce the confusion of the regulations due to tier boundaries dividing towns etc.

Well obviously the circumstances in rural Cumbria and going to be the same as in Oldham. Who would think otherwise.

And, of course, the boundary between the North West and Yorkshire and the Humber is impossible to notice in places so that needs to be in the same tier. Then Y&H merges into East Midlands, which merges into West Midlands .........

At least we know for a fact that "the science" changes in the middle of street in Saltney, so there will be some differences.

 

[Yew]

I imagine that the 'war on fun' will continue; anything that brings misery will be allowed, whilst the enjoyable things in life will be subject to restriction

I think pubs may remain closed for an extra week (just as a sop to the coronaphobes), but I would be very surprised if they remain closed over Christmas and the New Year. As you say, if pubs are closed then people are going to meet in their homes, where numbers and social distancing will go out the window. So surely it is better to re-open pubs, where the rules can be enforced, especially as data shows that hospitality is only responsible for about 5% of virus transmissions.

With the arch locktivist Dominic Cummings out of the way ( ) Boris Johnson may just decide to put the whole country into Tier 2 for the festive season.

Although I see that "SAGE" are sticking their oar in and saying that if we return to the previous Tiered system, virus transmissions will rise again. I do wish these people would just shut up and let us get on with our lives.

Presumably, based on the models that assume that cases will rise without additional restrictions?

 

[initiation]

tier 3 No hospitality without a substantial meal.

Apologies, yes thanks for the correction.

Although I would hazard a guess that well over 50% of pubs serve meals. It would still be a bad position for pubs to be in.

Baring any dramatic jump in deaths and R rate, I don't think the lockdown will be extended. We will drop back into the tier system but many more areas will be tier 2. There will be a few days 'amnesty' over christmas. Undecided if they will let pubs open for NYE.

I've heard some reports that Cummings was in the pro lockdown camp - perhaps his departure might help?

 

[317 forever]

I'm starting to suspect that after the grim numbers of cases and deaths reported in the last 48 hours, that Boris won't release the lockdown on the 2nd - regardless of Christmas looming.

Best case scenario is the current lockdown is eased but the whole country reverts back to an amended Tier system to at least allow non essential businesses to profit for the festive season.

Christmas is going to be a massive hurdle and New Year will be worse! My guess is the government will have to create some form of window for families to meet and at least interact for a short time.

I'm predicting the Covid restriction misery is probably going to continue until March/April time. The news about the vaccine is encouraging but even if they start to roll out the programme, it will not be an overnight solution. The estimated time scale is looking at this is as late as next September for it to stablise the Country.

CJ

I think these restrictions, with the possible exception of non-essential retail due to Christmas shopping, will continue for a further 2 weeks. Earlier in the year the reopenings of non-essential retail and leisure centres were postponed by 2 weeks. The easing of restrictions around December 16th will enable Boris to claim he "saved Christmas" for us all.

 

[bramling]

I think these restrictions, with the possible exception of non-essential retail due to Christmas shopping, will continue for a further 2 weeks. Earlier in the year the reopenings of non-essential retail and leisure centres were postponed by 2 weeks. The easing of restrictions around December 16th will enable Boris to claim he "saved Christmas" for us all.

I think keeping non-essential retail closed is not an option - there would be utter hell to play. Keeping pubs closed is easier to keep a lid on.

One way or other he’s boxed himself into a bit of a corner, as open everything 3 weeks before Christmas and people are going to go crazy as everything is compressed into 3 weeks, especially at the weekends. Not a wonderful position to have got himself into, especially now few are taking notice.

 

[317 forever]

I think keeping non-essential retail closed is not an option - there would be utter hell to play. Keeping pubs closed is easier to keep a lid on.

One way or other he’s boxed himself into a bit of a corner, as open everything 3 weeks before Christmas and people are going to go crazy as everything is compressed into 3 weeks, especially at the weekends. Not a wonderful position to have got himself into, especially now few are taking notice.

Indeed, even allowing for online shopping, shopping in the final 3 weeks before Christmas will be busier than usual. This in itself could undo some of the "good" from the lockdown.

 

[DelayRepay]

Normally any change of rules includes an extra set of places where face coverings have to be worn. I'm not sure where it will be - maybe we'll have to wear them for Christmas dinner??

I think keeping non-essential retail closed is not an option - there would be utter hell to play. Keeping pubs closed is easier to keep a lid on.

I agree - it will just (continue to) make those shops that are allowed to open even busier.

Nobody is going to tell their kids they can't have any Christmas presents because the toy shops are closed. They will go to Tesco and buy their toys from there.

The local garden centre near me is doing a roaring trade in Christmas stuff - someone I know who works there says they're likely to have their best Christmas ever. They are allowed to be open as a garden centre, but most of their trade is in toys, clothes and decorations. I am told that not many people are buying plants and compost! People are queueing outside to buy toys, while the huge toyshop down the road is limited to fulfilling online/click and collect orders.

It is my unscientific and unproven opinion that opening more non essential shops would actually be beneficial as it would result in each individual shop being slightly less busy/crowded. Leaving aside the economic benefits of shops being open, I wonder if the current situation is actually worse from a virus spreading perspective.

I would also consider relaxing Sunday trading restrictions in the run up to Christmas, in order to spread trade out throughout the day rather than having it concentrated in a six hour slot.

 

[yorksrob]

Apologies, yes thanks for the correction.

Although I would hazard a guess that well over 50% of pubs serve meals. It would still be a bad position for pubs to be in.

Baring any dramatic jump in deaths and R rate, I don't think the lockdown will be extended. We will drop back into the tier system but many more areas will be tier 2. There will be a few days 'amnesty' over christmas. Undecided if they will let pubs open for NYE.

I've heard some reports that Cummings was in the pro lockdown camp - perhaps his departure might help?

No problems.

We were in tier 2 for a while, and I went in a few hostelries which were still reasonably busy - many small household groups with occasional individuals like myself. Not ideal, but better than the alternative.

I agree. Hopefully Cummins' departure will diminish the pro-lockdown camp.

(personally, I find the best pubs are the ones that prioritise the ale over the food !)

 

[C J Snarzell]

As another forum member has stated - I think Boris will allow non essential businesses to reopen so at least people can purchase Christmas gifts.

I'm hoping the barbers and the gyms are allowed to reopen again so at least I can get a haircut and get a bit of much needed exercise.

I do agree that Boris will keep possibly keep pubs closed (hospitality being the most severely punished again) - it's the only way to prevent the reckless drunkeness we see at Christmas & New Year. The only problem is that it'll just push the problem into homes with the defiant members of society having house parties.

CJ

 

[Solent&Wessex]

Whatever happens, there would really need to be some decision or idea what is going to happen out in the public at least a week before the current lockdown ends.

The current legislation ends automatically so cannot simply be extended without some further voting or discussion in parliament. The current legislation also revokes the previous Tiered legislation so I would assume you cannot just go back to those without something else being discussed and published.

Whilst it won't stop them leaving it to the very last minute to make a decision or announcement - see Northern Ireland - I think considering the proximity to Christmas and the businesses that will have stock to sell and pubs and restaurants that will have bookings in place and supplies ordered - it would be very unwise and unfair to leave it till the last day or so to decide what is happening.

Personally I prefer the Welsh approach. Admit that you won't know how effective the lockdown was for a few weeks and just bite the bullet and put in a set of new national restrictions, but more relaxed than now, that apply everywhere irrespective of the infection rates. At least then the whole country can make some plans with some certainty for the Christmas period. If localised tiered restrictions are necessary (which they probably will be) then these can be reintroduced in January.

 

[duncanp]

As another forum member has stated - I think Boris will allow non essential businesses to reopen so at least people can purchase Christmas gifts.

I'm hoping the barbers and the gyms are allowed to reopen again so at least I can get a haircut and get a bit of much needed exercise.

I do agree that Boris will keep possibly keep pubs closed (hospitality being the most severely punished again) - it's the only way to prevent the reckless drunkeness we see at Christmas & New Year. The only problem is that it'll just push the problem into homes with the defiant members of society having house parties.

CJ

I don't think keeping pubs closed over Christmas and New Year will prevent reckless drunkeness. It will, as you say, push the problem into people's homes where it will be much harder to control.

Although it seems counter intuitive, I think it is actually better to keep as many places open as possible, for as long as possible.

If you speak to anyone in the pub trade they will tell you that the 10pm closing time just meant that people were coming out a couple of hours earlier, drinking the same amount over a shorter period of time and then going back to parties at home.

Similarly, the delay between the announcement of the second lockdown and it coming into effect caused many people to rush to shops, pubs and restaurants for one last time, whereas if there had been no lockdown they would have spread their visits over several days and weeks.

So personally I don't think the pubs will be closed over the festive season, if only because Boris knows that is political suicide, and there is little evidence that pubs are a major source of transmission. They may re-open a week later than non essential shops, perhaps on a weekday rather than a Saturday (eg December 8th or 9th) just so that there isn't a mad rush on the first day. And I hope the 10pm closing time is pushed back to at least 11pm.

 

[Snow1964]

The current shop rules are stupid, being able to go to a garden centre to buy clothes, but not a clothes shop, or getting toys from a supermarket but not a toy shop.

I do think that if shops are not reopened 3 Dec then will get stupid rush and crowding in High Streets and shopping centres when they eventually open, so if closure just compresses the Christmas buying period it might backfire

It is very true that applying the same rules to a low Covid rural area that are used for a hotspot is barmy, people will ignore them (or find ways around to stretch the rules), and will be unenforceable.

One oddity that I have noticed since living in more rural areas is more shops open early and close late afternoon. Personally I would rather do my Christmas shopping at 7-8am when quiet, than go on busy evening at 7-8pm. Be interesting to see if any stores open earlier for Christmas.

I suspect January sales (nowadays Boxing Day onwards) might be more of a problem, and will be tough if any tiered lockdown is tried over this period. After that maybe a good blizzard and freezing weather might limit number out passing on the bug, so perhaps a beast from the East is what the country needs.

 

[adc82140]

Although I see that "SAGE" are sticking their oar in and saying that if we return to the previous Tiered system, virus transmissions will rise again. I do wish these people would just shut up and let us get on with our lives.

You have to remember that the SAGE lot are scientists. Academics. Never before have they had this sort of public exposure, and they seem to be lapping it up. But what's been in the news the past week or so. Dominic Cummings and Donald Trump. So therefore no one's been taking any notice of the SAGE scientists, and they don't like it. So what can they do about it. Why not shout "Christmas is cancelled" just so people remember they exist. They are like a bunch of three year olds.

 

[Skimpot flyer]

I think that if we supposedly come "out" of lockdown only to end up in tier three, it will poison the social contract between the population and the government

I think that point was passed a long time ago, when they started saying a second lockdown ‘could not be ruled out’.
We who can see the wood for the trees knew this was mentally conditioning people for another assault on our liberty

 

[duncanp]

You have to remember that the SAGE lot are scientists. Academics. Never before have they had this sort of public exposure, and they seem to be lapping it up. But what's been in the news the past week or so. Dominic Cummings and Donald Trump. So therefore no one's been taking any notice of the SAGE scientists, and they don't like it. So what can they do about it. Why not shout "Christmas is cancelled" just so people remember they exist. They are like a bunch of three year olds.

Yes, I wish I had £1 for every time I have seen the phrase "..a SAGE scientist warns..." in the newspapers and online over the past six months.

I think the government ought to disband SAGE and have a team of advisers specifically for COVID-19 that brings together scientists, economists, gists, NHS professionals and politicians to decide how to take things forward in the long term. The people should be told that they are there to advise the government, not to decide policy, and anyone who speaks to the press without authorisation, or who leaks anything to the press, should be sacked.

 

[adc82140]

Don't forget the "Independent Sage" who are self appointed misfits deemed too extreme even for this government. Yet the press seem to think that their every word is gospel.

For some reason the public think that every word uttered by a scientist is to be hung onto. I come from a scientific background, and let me say that having your name preceded by Dr. or Prof. does not mean that you are always right. A good percentage of academics are not in it to further humanity, but definitely to further their own careers and egos.

 

[duncanp]

Yes, I wish I had £1 for every time I have seen the phrase "..a SAGE scientist warns..." in the newspapers and online over the past six months.

I think the government ought to disband SAGE and have a team of advisers specifically for COVID-19 that brings together scientists, economists, gists, NHS professionals and politicians to decide how to take things forward in the long term. The people should be told that they are there to advise the government, not to decide policy, and anyone who speaks to the press without authorisation, or who leaks anything to the press, should be sacked.

And as if by magic, an article appears in the Telegraph this morning.

Another £1 in the piggy bank.

Access Restricted

Coronavirus latest news: Vaccine promise is making people feel complacent, Sage scientist warns​

News that a potential coronavirus vaccine may be on the horizon could be making people complacent, a member of the government's Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage) has said.

It is still too early to see whether lockdown has helped England get on top of the virus so the public must continue to follow the restrictions in order to get the R-value down, Professor Susan Michie Director of Centre for Behaviour Change at UCL told the BBC's Today programme.

"The next two weeks are going to be crucial. They're going to be challenging, partly because of the weather," Prof Michie said, adding that "the promising news of the vaccine may be making people complacent."

She warned that "the vaccine is very unlikely to come in until the end of the year or the beginning of next year" and so "everybody has to really get all the resolve together to really pay attention to resisting any urges at break the rules."

Levels of general compliance with the rules has been pretty steady since the summer, Prof Michie told the BBC. However, data shows that adherence to restrictions seems to be "slightly less for younger people and it is also slightly less for higher income."

 

[birchesgreen]

We're being softened up for an extension of the lockdown

Next fortnight 'crucial' in ensuring England Covid lockdown ends as planned

Prof Susan Michie says vaccine hopes must not make Britons complacent

www.theguardian.com

Next fortnight 'crucial' in ensuring England Covid lockdown ends as planned​

The next two weeks will be “absolutely crucial” in ensuring that England’s coronavirus lockdown ends as planned on 2 December, a government scientific adviser has said...

 

[Yew]

Already they're starting with the "if it works, I was right, if it doesn't work, you did it wrong" rhetoric...

 

[island]

I would expect to see all retail reopen on 03-DMR-20. Would not be surprised to see pubs/restaurants closed for another week or two. Gyms could go either way. Back to a nebulous recommendation against working from offices. And probably they will find some more places to require face coverings.

Gatherings will probably be restricted as before, most likely with high restrictions indoors. This with a view to dropping most of the above coming up to Christmas, because there's no realistic chance people are going to take any notice of the rules around gathering in houses with their families over the festive period.

 

[duncanp]

We're being softened up for an extension of the lockdown

Next fortnight 'crucial' in ensuring England Covid lockdown ends as planned

Prof Susan Michie says vaccine hopes must not make Britons complacent

www.theguardian.com

I have no doubt that some SAGE scientists would love to see the lockdown extended until the end of March. Why wouldn't they, as their jobs, pensions and homes are not really affected by all the closures.

But equally there is a growing number of Conservative MPs who are not prepared to vote for an extension to the lockdown, especially as the projected death figures used to justify the current one were shown to be exaggerated.

Whatever happens on 3rd December, no doubt a SAGE scientist/Professor Chris Twitty/Professor Pantsdown will "warn" that it is not enough, and that there will be a third lockdown in the new year.

If England's pubs remain closed over Christmas, no doubt Nicola Sturgeon will open them in Scotland just to show how much better life is under the SNP, and how much better life would be if Scotland was an independent country.

Personally I think that something along the lines of what has happened in Wales will occur, in that everything will re-open within a week of December 3rd, but there will be various petty restrictions that will achieve nothing, but make it look as if the government is doing something.

Anyone want to bet on face nappies masks being made compulsory everywhere outside the home?

 

[HSTEd]

I suppose we should be glad we don't have any active volcanoes.

Or SAGE would be demanding poor people be thrown into it to appease the virus.

 

[Domh245]

Or SAGE would be demanding poor people be thrown into it to appease the virus.

And young people...

 

[bengley]

I have no doubt that some SAGE scientists would love to see the lockdown extended until the end of March. Why wouldn't they, as their jobs, pensions and homes are not really affected by all the closures.

But equally there is a growing number of Conservative MPs who are not prepared to vote for an extension to the lockdown, especially as the projected death figures used to justify the current one were shown to be exaggerated.

Whatever happens on 3rd December, no doubt a SAGE scientist/Professor Chris Twitty/Professor Pantsdown will "warn" that it is not enough, and that there will be a third lockdown in the new year.

If England's pubs remain closed over Christmas, no doubt Nicola Sturgeon will open them in Scotland just to show how much better life is under the SNP, and how much better life would be if Scotland was an independent country.

Personally I think that something along the lines of what has happened in Wales will occur, in that everything will re-open within a week of December 3rd, but there will be various petty restrictions that will achieve nothing, but make it look as if the government is doing something.

Anyone want to bet on face nappies masks being made compulsory everywhere outside the home?

The day masks become mandatory everywhere outside the home is the day I become exempt for some reason. Not happening.

 

[brad465]

According to BESA the total school population is around 10.3 million pupils, with another 506,000 teachers on top. There was also this story yesterday revealing an increase in the number of infections amongst school children in this wave:

Covid: Children more likely to be infected in second wave

Evidence presented to government confirmed rising infections as schools reopened.

www.bbc.co.uk

The number of school-age children with coronavirus has risen "significantly" in the second wave compared with the first, according to the government's scientific advisers.

Children are now more likely than adults to be the person bringing a Covid infection into a household.

But families with children are at no higher risk of severe illness.

The National Education Union (NEU) said it was "troubled" by the number of children testing positive.

The exact role children play in transmitting coronavirus has long been an open question.

It's clear young people as a group are at very low risk of becoming seriously ill from the virus themselves.

This means nearly a sixth of the whole population is making regular contact with large groups, and then by integrating in households between school shifts an even bigger proportion of the population in total is affected. All of this is still going on in this so-called lockdown. Therefore if infection numbers start going up again soon there's plenty to suggest the recent dip was linked to half term and it's possible lockdown will end up being extended in some form simply because of this, which is certainly unfair I think.

 

[yorksrob]

I'm dubious as to the value of lockdown anyway, but where it occurs, hospitality is always made the scapegoat.

 

[david1212]

I think pubs may remain closed for an extra week (just as a sop to the coronaphobes), but I would be very surprised if they remain closed over Christmas and the New Year. As you say, if pubs are closed then people are going to meet in their homes, where numbers and social distancing will go out the window. So surely it is better to re-open pubs, where the rules can be enforced, especially as data shows that hospitality is only responsible for about 5% of virus transmissions.

With the arch locktivist Dominic Cummings out of the way ( ) Boris Johnson may just decide to put the whole country into Tier 2 for the festive season.

Although I see that "SAGE" are sticking their oar in and saying that if we return to the previous Tiered system, virus transmissions will rise again. I do wish these people would just shut up and let us get on with our lives.

I have no doubt that some SAGE scientists would love to see the lockdown extended until the end of March. Why wouldn't they, as their jobs, pensions and homes are not really affected by all the closures.

But equally there is a growing number of Conservative MPs who are not prepared to vote for an extension to the lockdown, especially as the projected death figures used to justify the current one were shown to be exaggerated.

Whatever happens on 3rd December, no doubt a SAGE scientist/Professor Chris Twitty/Professor Pantsdown will "warn" that it is not enough, and that there will be a third lockdown in the new year.

If England's pubs remain closed over Christmas, no doubt Nicola Sturgeon will open them in Scotland just to show how much better life is under the SNP, and how much better life would be if Scotland was an independent country.

Personally I think that something along the lines of what has happened in Wales will occur, in that everything will re-open within a week of December 3rd, but there will be various petty restrictions that will achieve nothing, but make it look as if the government is doing something.

Anyone want to bet on face nappies masks being made compulsory everywhere outside the home?

If SAGE, Whitty etc had their way we would all be locked in like prisoners. If either we lived on just vitamin pills or food production was 100% carried out by robots and machines then delivered by drones and autonomous vehicles that also collected waste they would be happy. They would not have any consideration about how this plus gas, electricity, water etc was funded.

The reality is people are getting more fed up by the day. Meeting family and friends outdoors is not now realistic. Small groups at homes will be noticed less now the evenings are dark. Over Christmas where traditionally one or two large gatherings logically instead there will be several small ones over the days around Christmas. ' The day ' is Friday so then the weekend and Monday will be a bank holiday. Similarly a long weekend for New Year. Many who are considered vulnerable will choose to take a risk rather than not see at least immediate family.

Against this many needing what are considered non-essential operations and treatment are at best continuing to suffer discomfort, limited mobility etc if not slow deterioration. If the first Covid vaccines are prioritised to health care workers and those most likely to require hospital admission if they do contract Covid-19 then at least the backlog should not increase.

@duncanp
Don't give anyone ideas about face nappies masks except totally removing any requirement.

The current shop rules are stupid, being able to go to a garden centre to buy clothes, but not a clothes shop, or getting toys from a supermarket but not a toy shop.

I do think that if shops are not reopened 3 Dec then will get stupid rush and crowding in High Streets and shopping centres when they eventually open, so if closure just compresses the Christmas buying period it might backfire

It is very true that applying the same rules to a low Covid rural area that are used for a hotspot is barmy, people will ignore them (or find ways around to stretch the rules), and will be unenforceable.

One oddity that I have noticed since living in more rural areas is more shops open early and close late afternoon. Personally I would rather do my Christmas shopping at 7-8am when quiet, than go on busy evening at 7-8pm. Be interesting to see if any stores open earlier for Christmas.

I suspect January sales (nowadays Boxing Day onwards) might be more of a problem, and will be tough if any tiered lockdown is tried over this period. After that maybe a good blizzard and freezing weather might limit number out passing on the bug, so perhaps a beast from the East is what the country needs.

Exactly. IMO the required closure of retail that fits within the government definition of non-essential will be found to have achieved virtually nothing in reducing Covid-19 infection numbers but will have a significant negative effect on the number shops still trading next year, the economy and unemployment.

 

[Mugby]

Given the turmoil which is occurring currently inside No.10, it may well be that Boris and his bunch of luminaries havn't got the remotest clue right now what to do when the present lockdown ends on 2nd. Dec.

With regard to SAGE, would it be correct that the members of this fount of all wisdom will be on greatly enhanced salaries for the duration?
Wouldn't it be in their interests to keep the show going as long as they possibly can?

 

[Paul_10]

I see alot of criticism for SAGE on here but too me, they are just being realistic and because realism is not the news you want to hear, then they must be wrong and just too negative.

Sorry but this virus is very contagious and sadly for the elderly and vulnable, it's deadly also. You not going to get a well respected scientist like Chris Whitty saying anything otherwise or put some positive spin on it like the government will do. I mean Boris Johnson hope that things could be back to normal by November and Xmas was nothing but wishful thinking, the scientists always knew a 2nd wave was possible as we head into the darker months and well they are not wrong that is for sure.

Deaths and hospital admissions are still rising, thankfully not quite the levels as in the Spring but If this coronavirus favours colder conditions then even as the government are saying, it's going to be a very tough number of months ahead.

 

[duncanp]

I see alot of criticism for SAGE on here but too me, they are just being realistic and because realism is not the news you want to hear, then they must be wrong and just too negative.

Sorry but this virus is very contagious and sadly for the elderly and vulnable, it's deadly also. You not going to get a well respected scientist like Chris Whitty saying anything otherwise or put some positive spin on it like the government will do. I mean Boris Johnson hope that things could be back to normal by November and Xmas was nothing but wishful thinking, the scientists always knew a 2nd wave was possible as we head into the darker months and well they are not wrong that is for sure.

Deaths and hospital admissions are still rising, thankfully not quite the levels as in the Spring but If this coronavirus favours colder conditions then even as the government are saying, it's going to be a very tough number of months ahead.

But are SAGE being 'realistic' though?

They seem to take no consideration of the effect that the measures they are advocating have on the economy, people's mental health and also the thousands of non COVID-19 patients who are being denied treatment, or are having their treatment delayed?

To me, 'realistic' means balancing what is desirable from the point of view of controlling the virus against what is need to protect the economy and the other factors I have mentioned above. Whilst a stricter lockdown may bring down the number of cases sooner, it will cost more (eg extending the furlough scheme) and eventually that cost is going to have to be paid.

Take today's anti government diatribe from "..a SAGE scientist...."

COVID-19 lockdown tier system 'not very well thought out' warns SAGE scientist

Prof Edmunds urges the government to use a long-term strategy when it comes to balancing the economy and the pandemic.

news.sky.com

The coronavirus lockdown tier system being used in England "was not very well thought out", a government scientific adviser has said.

Under current plans, a regional tiered system is set to replace the national lockdown when it ends on 2 December.


However, professor John Edmunds, a member of the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE), has warned a return to the lowest alert level of the regional tier system, Tier 1, when the lockdown ends would be "very unwise".

"The problem with the tier system is Tier 1 doesn't do much at all, Tier 2 probably has some effect, but not a great deal, and Tier 3 seems to be able to hold the epidemic," he said.


Imagexperts are not convinced the lockdown system is working
"The problem with the tier system is that inevitably you end up with quite a lot of places with high incidence under those circumstances.


"Because the Tier 1 and Tier 2 ones just eventually drift up into Tier 3 with a high incidence, and then Tier 3 holds it there."


He added: "It wasn't a very well thought through strategy, frankly."
Prof Edmunds, of the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, also urged the government to use a long-term strategy when it comes to balancing the economy and the pandemic.

"We need to take a long-term view and be sensible and realise that we're going to have to have restrictions in place for some time," he said.


"Yes, we can lift them when it's safe to do so, which will be primarily when large numbers of people have been vaccinated.

"But flip-flopping between encouraging people to mix socially, which is what you're doing by encouraging people to go to restaurants and bars, versus then immediately closing them again, isn't a very sensible way to run the epidemic."

Firstly I think Professor Edmunds has got a damned cheek saying that the goverment strategy is "..not very well thought out..". If he is a 'government scientific adviser', he should be expressing his opinions and concerns to the government directly, not whining to Sky News/The Guardian/The BBC when the government doesn't do what he wants.

Secondly, note when Professor Edmunds thinks that the restrictions can safely be lifted, which is "primarily when large numbers of people have been vaccinated". This could be well into the summer of next year, and there will simply be no economy left if the whole country is placed into something like Tier 3 restrictions for the next 6 - 9 months.

Professor Edmunds is however correct when he says that the government needs a long term strategy when it comes to balancing the economy and the pandemic. However that means having a lower level of restrictions, something akin to Tier 1 or Tier 2, that people are able to tolerate for a longer period of time.

There is going to be a rude awakening for some people when we have the budget in March. We cannot put off forever starting to pay for the costs of the lockdown, and this is when support for continuing the measures is likely to drop significantly.