Lockdown in England from Thursday 5 November until Wednesday 2 December

[brad465]

Not really. North West estimated infections plateaued around the 20th, so based on the average 5 day difference from infection to symptoms that'd put peak infection at around the 15th, more or less the time that the tier system started to come into effect

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snipped from ONS report

Could it also be that the sheer number of people being infected in those areas, combined with any previous immunity from earlier in the pandemic, that the virus has started running out of hosts to infect? (my thinking is a combination of factors are at play in the improving picture)

 

[jtuk]

Could it also be that the sheer number of people being infected in those areas, combined with any previous immunity from earlier in the pandemic, that the virus has started running out of hosts to infect? (my thinking is a combination of factors are at play in the improving picture)

That would be too obvious

 

[sjpowermac]

I've quit my wretched union due, in part, to their ludicrous stance in wanting to close schools during this lockdown (and also partly because they want to force everyone to wear masks at all times, but let's not get onto that in this thread!)

In other news, it was confirmed last night that the terms of this lockdown prevents schools running extra-curricular after school clubs.

The unions would do much better to fight against the barrage of additional pressure being placed on staff. ‘Ban the bubbles’ would be a good start.

I agree with you totally about the extra-curricular clubs.

 

[greyman42]

Also whichever way one looks at it, Eat Out To Help Out was clearly a mistake.

In what respect?

 

[yorksrob]

Also whichever way one looks at it, Eat Out To Help Out was clearly a mistake.

I'm not convinced that it was.

 

[Domh245]

Could it also be that the sheer number of people being infected in those areas, combined with any previous immunity from earlier in the pandemic, that the virus has started running out of hosts to infect? (my thinking is a combination of factors are at play in the improving picture)

No, we're nowhere near the sort of herd immunity thresholds, although it is possible for it to be happening on a local scale with small groups. With 239,000 confirmed positives since testing began in the North West that's less than 4% of the population. The best case herd immunity threshold is 60% so there's clearly a long way to go before it starts to have a marked effect, even allowing for significantly more people having had it during the 'first wave'

 

[Richard Scott]

No, we're nowhere near the sort of herd immunity thresholds, although it is possible for it to be happening on a local scale with small groups. With 239,000 confirmed positives since testing began in the North West that's less than 4% of the population. The best case herd immunity threshold is 60% so there's clearly a long way to go before it starts to have a marked effect, even allowing for significantly more people having had it during the 'first wave'

Not forgetting the possible T-cell influence which may be up to 30%, I believe. However as this is a bit of an unknown could be in the getting close position or equally could be miles away.

 

[ChrisC]

And that to me sums up how ludicrous and divisive the whole thing is - small independent shoe retailers have to close whilst the big boys take all their business during "lockdown". Maybe some of those small shoe shops should consider selling tins of beans etc.

I drove through a town this morning on my way to going for a walk. There were a lot of people around. The sad thing was seeing all the small independent shops closed. Local family businesses with shutters down but Tesco, Wilkos, Home Bargains, B & M and B & Q all open. It’s not just shoes, but all clothing, homeware, electrical goods, etc etc that are being sold by these large national business whilst our local high street businesses are closed. So sad to see the high streets in our smaller market towns closed whilst the large chains can still sell the same goods in this lead up to Christmas. Incidentally the traffic was very heavy too. Like yesterday I began to think what lockdown.

 

[brad465]

No, we're nowhere near the sort of herd immunity thresholds, although it is possible for it to be happening on a local scale with small groups. With 239,000 confirmed positives since testing began in the North West that's less than 4% of the population. The best case herd immunity threshold is 60% so there's clearly a long way to go before it starts to have a marked effect, even allowing for significantly more people having had it during the 'first wave'

While I agree we won't be at herd immunity yet, no single wave will achieve that level, so ultimately we don't have to reach herd immunity for this wave to burn out. Also the virus will have passed through the North West in the first wave, to what extent we don't know, but the total immunity levels there will be higher than 4%.

 

[trainophile]

I drove through a town this morning on my way to going for a walk. There were a lot of people around. The sad thing was seeing all the small independent shops closed. Local family businesses with shutters down but Tesco, Wilkos, Home Bargains, B & M and B & Q all open. It’s not just shoes, but all clothing, homeware, electrical goods, etc etc that are being sold by these large national business whilst our local high street businesses are closed. So sad to see the high streets in our smaller market towns closed whilst the large chains can still sell the same goods in this lead up to Christmas. Incidentally the traffic was very heavy too. Like yesterday I began to think what lockdown.

The Welsh tried to tackle that unfairness in their own way, and that didn't go well either.

 

[6862]

Could it also be that the sheer number of people being infected in those areas, combined with any previous immunity from earlier in the pandemic, that the virus has started running out of hosts to infect? (my thinking is a combination of factors are at play in the improving picture)

No we can't consider that as it might imply that herd immunity might be realistically possible...

But seriously, I think what you are suggesting is credible. Of course the government won't pay a blind bit of notice to such theories in their planning!

 

[Smidster]

I'm not convinced that it was.

I agree.

EOTO is turning into an easy target and don't think the evidence is particularly convincing.

The fact that the second wave is being seen across Europe, and the USA, would suggest that EOTO has not made things worse than they would have been otherwise.

I would also point out the regional data - EOTO was not used more in the North West & Yorkshire compared to London & the South East.

All of the restaurants I saw during the scheme were being really careful about precautions - don't forget they were dealing with many people who were still a bit scared about being out.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

I drove through a town this morning on my way to going for a walk. There were a lot of people around. The sad thing was seeing all the small independent shops closed. Local family businesses with shutters down but Tesco, Wilkos, Home Bargains, B & M and B & Q all open. It’s not just shoes, but all clothing, homeware, electrical goods, etc etc that are being sold by these large national business whilst our local high street businesses are closed. So sad to see the high streets in our smaller market towns closed whilst the large chains can still sell the same goods in this lead up to Christmas. Incidentally the traffic was very heavy too. Like yesterday I began to think what lockdown.

All the big companies are likely donors to the tories (not saying they all are but some do)

 

[yorksrob]

I agree.

EOTO is turning into an easy target and don't think the evidence is particularly convincing.

The fact that the second wave is being seen across Europe, and the USA, would suggest that EOTO has not made things worse than they would have been otherwise.

I would also point out the regional data - EOTO was not used more in the North West & Yorkshire compared to London & the South East.

All of the restaurants I saw during the scheme were being really careful about precautions - don't forget they were dealing with many people who were still a bit scared about being out.

Yes, there was a lot of caution in most hospitality venues I used. They were getting slicker and more organised at it as time went on.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

I agree.

EOTO is turning into an easy target and don't think the evidence is particularly convincing.

The fact that the second wave is being seen across Europe, and the USA, would suggest that EOTO has not made things worse than they would have been otherwise.

I would also point out the regional data - EOTO was not used more in the North West & Yorkshire compared to London & the South East.

All of the restaurants I saw during the scheme were being really careful about precautions - don't forget they were dealing with many people who were still a bit scared about being out.

The North had lower infection rates in the first wave as did the SW so they are playing catch up and as other posters have shown infection rates are now levelling out or already in decline following the trend seen in London & SE in the first wave (decline rates are always slower than the rise by the way). The same is being played out across Europe with countries like Austria having a very good first wave but now in far worse position than the UK.

In respect of EOTHO i echo your views from premises i visited and by and large a lot of people still sought outside seating as well so im not convinced it was a significant vector. That said I feel there was potentially a false horizon created with EOTHO in that people than felt it was safe to socialise and that it may have allowed transmission rates to increase off the back of it.

 

[30907]

Given Nottingham was already on the way down before tiers came into place, let alone before it went from tier 2 to 3, I'm just going to assume it's the virus naturally tailing off, just like the first time around

Alternatively, and this applies to other cities with large student population, the figures are distorted by beginning of term outbreaks - both the spikes and the tail-off. Liverpool and Manchester possibly show this.

In any case hospital admissions are now IMO a better indicator.

 

[bramling]

My experiences today tie in with the "what lockdown?" observations expressed elsewhere. I'd say there's as much traffic on the roads as normal, and a walk round my town centre found it pretty much as busy as normal, just with more people crowding into the shops which were open. Very saddening to see all the small shops closed up, though one or two have been innovative and launched makeshift click & collect arrangements, whereby you can leave them a message on facebook and they will arrange to meet you outside the shop and hand over the goods - good on them IMO. We're also back to the packed parks, our rural walk was much busier than it would normally have been.

If this is typical across the board then I'd say this shows what many people think of this, and it also suggests it will be a complete and utter failure - but a costly one as it's going to crucify many businesses at a time when they needed the pre-Christmas business to make up for the last lockdown.

There's still some pro people around though. I got a caustic comment on facebook suggesting I "should speak to some doctors in Liverpool to get some real insight into this". And on our walk we just had to get an idiot press himself into the wall when passing on a footpath.

 

[Bikeman78]

I drove through a town this morning on my way to going for a walk. There were a lot of people around. The sad thing was seeing all the small independent shops closed. Local family businesses with shutters down but Tesco, Wilkos, Home Bargains, B & M and B & Q all open. It’s not just shoes, but all clothing, homeware, electrical goods, etc etc that are being sold by these large national business whilst our local high street businesses are closed. So sad to see the high streets in our smaller market towns closed whilst the large chains can still sell the same goods in this lead up to Christmas. Incidentally the traffic was very heavy too. Like yesterday I began to think what lockdown.

You may recall that I predicted this last week but I was shot down in flames! Lockdown 3, if it happens, will be even more pointless.

 

[david1212]

I drove through a town this morning on my way to going for a walk. There were a lot of people around. The sad thing was seeing all the small independent shops closed. Local family businesses with shutters down but Tesco, Wilkos, Home Bargains, B & M and B & Q all open. It’s not just shoes, but all clothing, homeware, electrical goods, etc etc that are being sold by these large national business whilst our local high street businesses are closed. So sad to see the high streets in our smaller market towns closed whilst the large chains can still sell the same goods in this lead up to Christmas. Incidentally the traffic was very heavy too. Like yesterday I began to think what lockdown.

My experiences today tie in with the "what lockdown?" observations expressed elsewhere. I'd say there's as much traffic on the roads as normal, and a walk round my town centre found it pretty much as busy as normal, just with more people crowding into the shops which were open. Very saddening to see all the small shops closed up, though one or two have been innovative and launched makeshift click & collect arrangements, whereby you can leave them a message on facebook and they will arrange to meet you outside the shop and hand over the goods - good on them IMO. We're also back to the packed parks, our rural walk was much busier than it would normally have been.

If this is typical across the board then I'd say this shows what many people think of this, and it also suggests it will be a complete and utter failure - but a costly one as it's going to crucify many businesses at a time when they needed the pre-Christmas business to make up for the last lockdown.

There's still some pro people around though. I got a caustic comment on facebook suggesting I "should speak to some doctors in Liverpool to get some real insight into this". And on our walk we just had to get an idiot press himself into the wall when passing on a footpath.

I really do wonder how many fewer cross-infections there will be as a direct result of closing shops deemed as non-essential. If the logic was to keep people at home for longer so away from others and off public transport from the above reports this is failing.

All I see is a boost to those shops still open and internet sales at the expense of the rest with the longer term result of more permanent closures.

 

[Reliablebeam]

I don't think I can add much to what others have said - my town down here in the Thames Valley, you'd barely know there was a 'lockdown' on compared with March, or even April/May if I'm honest. A large number of shops have managed to stay open in various forms. I myself was going to get on GWR this weekend to travel to some outdoor enjoyment, but, er.... Looks like I might be needed in work, which has decided to try and stay open..

 

[jtuk]

Alternatively, and this applies to other cities with large student population, the figures are distorted by beginning of term outbreaks - both the spikes and the tail-off. Liverpool and Manchester possibly show this.

In any case hospital admissions are now IMO a better indicator.

As Heneghan said, hospital admissions are not a good indicator. If you see 100 Covid admissions to a given hospital on a given day, but it ignores that:

- 50 of those were already in hospital but just showed up on a test on that day
- 120 were discharged on that day

Do you still worry about 100 admissions?

 

[Bantamzen]

BBC running an article today regarding infections "may be stabilising"

UK coronavirus infections may be 'stabilising'

Although the number of new cases continues to rise, the growth rate is slowing, latest data show.

www.bbc.co.uk

Of course, the lockdown, at little over a day old, will have had nothing to do with this reduction

Hmmmm, how convenient. A cynical person (not me you understand ) might suggest that the lockdown was timed to coincide with a forecasted slow down, so that lockdowns can be "proved" to work....

 

[bramling]

Hmmmm, how convenient. A cynical person (not me you understand ) might suggest that the lockdown was timed to coincide with a forecasted slow down, so that lockdowns can be "proved" to work....

One would expect there to be the odd sharp tool in the media to point this fact out, but I’m not holding my breath.

Just travelled into London by train. The train was pretty much empty, though would normally be pretty lightly loaded. However London Bridge station was also rising LU busy at 0615. Quite busy, and interestingly there were a conspicuous number of drunks about. Not sure what they would have spent the night doing as surely pubs and the like are firmly closed.

 

[VauxhallandI]

Hmmmm, how convenient. A cynical person (not me you understand ) might suggest that the lockdown was timed to coincide with a forecasted slow down, so that lockdowns can be "proved" to work....

I imagine all the chat about current figures being representative of the situation a number of weeks ago will now be forgotten and these figures will miraculously turn into live numbers

 

[Scotrail314209]

What I did find thrilling was how great Theresa May was in her speech to parliament about the lockdown. Boris walked out and Hancock looked angered by the time she was done. Presumably because Hancock knew he was pegged.

The Former PM life seems to be suiting Mrs May well, as she looks healthier. That speech also gave me some respect for her. It was the first time in a while I’ve heard a politician talking sense.

 

[Ianno87]

Hmmmm, how convenient. A cynical person (not me you understand ) might suggest that the lockdown was timed to coincide with a forecasted slow down, so that lockdowns can be "proved" to work....

I doubt our government is quite as competent as that.

 

[Richard Scott]

What I did find thrilling was how great Theresa May was in her speech to parliament about the lockdown. Boris walked out and Hancock looked angered by the time she was done. Presumably because Hancock knew he was pegged.

The Former PM life seems to be suiting Mrs May well, as she looks healthier. That speech also gave me some respect for her. It was the first time in a while I’ve heard a politician talking sense.

Beat me to it in this one! Hopefully a few more might see sense and start following her on this.

 

[Yew]

No, we're nowhere near the sort of herd immunity thresholds, although it is possible for it to be happening on a local scale with small groups. With 239,000 confirmed positives since testing began in the North West that's less than 4% of the population. The best case herd immunity threshold is 60% so there's clearly a long way to go before it starts to have a marked effect, even allowing for significantly more people having had it during the 'first wave'

Threshold? This isn't an all-or-nothing thing, and we still face significant restrictions on normal life, so the threshold is lowered, as the restriction-modified R is lower.

 

[jtuk]

No, we're nowhere near the sort of herd immunity thresholds, although it is possible for it to be happening on a local scale with small groups. With 239,000 confirmed positives since testing began in the North West that's less than 4% of the population. The best case herd immunity threshold is 60% so there's clearly a long way to go before it starts to have a marked effect, even allowing for significantly more people having had it during the 'first wave'

This is wrong on so many levels

 

[Dan15812]

This made me chuckle!

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