Media Coverage of COVID -19

[Dent]

I don't think that many people need to be infected to at least end this peak of infections. However, the same article did suggest if the doubling every 9 days rate continued to the end of November it would be infecting a million a day. Somehow I doubt even doing nothing more will achieve that, but it does suggest that, given the infection lag time, it will spread much faster through the population for a time compared to now.

Here we go again, yet another prediction of exponential growth continuing ad infinitum . This seems to be the favourite basis for scare stories, but is obviously not a realistic model of real-world conditions.

 

[adc82140]

Here we go again, yet another prediction of exponential growth continuing ad infinitum . This seems to be the favourite basis for scare stories, but is obviously not a realistic model of real-world conditions.

Did you know that by March next year everyone will be getting infected four times a day, and there will be 65 million hospital admissions a day. The dead will rise, get infected and die again. Signed Dr. Chris Potty, Prof Patrick Valance-Sheet and Dr Jonathan Van Driver.

 

[kristiang85]

The thread on infection rates is locked, so have chosen this thread as the one I think is next most relevant to put this particular revelation. An Imperial College study thinks we're nearing 100,000 infections per day again:

Covid-19: Nearly 100,000 catching virus every day - study

England is at a "critical stage" with infections doubling every nine days, a major analysis estimates.

www.bbc.co.uk

This is a decent analysis of the report and a rebuttal of the MSM/Imperial cherry picked scaremongering (original source if you want to look at illustrations: https://twitter.com/stevebrown2856/status/1321767082686664710)

Paper link: https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/im...lth-innovation/REACT1_r6_interim_preprint.pdf

First thing's first, the overall methodology of the paper (random sampling of the population) is sound and useful. However, I take issue with the selection of quoted statistics, which (of course) then make the headlines. Here are some numbers that need proper scrutiny. 100,000 cases per day; doubling every 9 days with a national R rate of 1.6; R rate of 2.86 in London (all quoted in https://news.sky.com/story/coronavi...ringent-action-needed-scientists-say-12117337).

The REACT interim report sampled 85,971 people over 10 days and found 863 positives across 9 regions. Now, 85,971 is a lot and 863 is a sufficient number of positives to be confident that the overall unweighted prevalence of positive samples is around 1%. However, to estimate the number of cases/day, the sample is weighted and then two huge assumptions are made: The study assumes (apparently without evidence) that the PCR tests are only 75% sensitive and that nobody will test positive after 10 days after initial infection. These assumptions are, IMHO, hugely skewed.

We know that PCR tests can pick up non-viable RNA long after 10 days. We know that the tests are very sensitive. An alternative, perhaps more realistic, estimate might assume ~100% sensitivity and a period of 20 days, which would provide a headline number of 36,000 / day. Now onto the growth rates. ICL uses two methodologies; one a fit to a continuous series and one a fit to individual rounds. The problem with fitting to individual rounds is that the number of positive samples on any individual day varies hugely. Take a look at this graph again, and look at the last day of the most recent round: Yup, that's right, zero positive samples. That one didn't make the headlines.

Over 10 days, there are only an average of 86.3 positives/day, so time series estimates based on the individual round have low statistical validity. This is magnified even more on a regional level. Across 9 regions, that's only 9.6 positives/day/region, which leads to very wide confidence intervals. The national "central estimate" is sound but the daily variations are less sound, and the regional daily variations have very low confidence. This means that the continuous time series should be used when quoting the headline estimates for R and doubling time. It seems that ICL agrees, in principle.

The regional trends are presented only for the continuous model. However, for some reason, ICL has chosen to present estimates of R(t) based on both the continuous and discrete samples. Even worse, they have then cherry picked the higher R estimates from the discrete sample (1.56 nationally and 2.86 London) for the press round.

In conclusion, the REACT study shows that R is probably in the range 1.1 to 1.2 nationally and in most regions, and that there are around 40,000 cases/day; numbers which are in line with all other data sources. It does not show anything else with any degree of confidence.

 

[Scotrail12]

Not sure where to put this so I'll just go with this thread.

Simon Dolan has picked up a short Twitter ban for "spreading misinformation" about COVID. Total censorship from Twitter. Are they going to do the same with Piers Morgan and his scaremongering? What happened to freedom of speech? It's as if we all must live in an echo chamber and think the same way, anyone who doesn't conform is viewed as evil.

 

[MikeWM]

Not sure where to put this so I'll just go with this thread.

Simon Dolan has picked up a short Twitter ban for "spreading misinformation" about COVID. Total censorship from Twitter. Are they going to do the same with Piers Morgan and his scaremongering? What happened to freedom of speech? It's as if we all must live in an echo chamber and think the same way, anyone who doesn't conform is viewed as evil.

Twitter censorship has been picking up dramatically over the last month or two. Scott Atlas had a similar problem recently. They'd clearly like to do the same to Trump but so far they've just flagged his messages as 'wrong'.

I read Simon Dolan's twitter postings regularly and they are fairly strident - which I find rather welcome - but I don't recall anything I would class as incorrect.

Yet another reason to be very concerned about where all this is going.

 

[158756]

There are 1257 hospitals in the UK (not including the Nightingales) That means on average there would be 25 patients in each one. Some of these hospitals will only have a dozen or so beds, but others will have over a thousand. So hardly overwhelming the system really.

This feels like a really misleading statistic. The source I can find for the 1257 says it's a count of "NHS Trust-managed hospitals and the additional private hospitals that are currently in use." ('Currently in use' just meaning open as of September 2019, nothing to do with more recent moves to treat NHS patients in them)

So that includes loads of private hospitals, along with NHS mental health and other specialist facilities, children's hospitals etc. Then you have the likes of our nearest community hospital which has only one ward. There are not 1257 hospitals set up to accept Covid patients. How many there are is not clear, but the vast majority of patients will be in the apparently ~180 hospitals with an A&E department.

 

[kristiang85]

There was a lot of media this week on a 17yr old in Northern Ireland who died of COVID, but thankfully the BBC have headlined the subsequent interview with the father saying he did not die of COVID, even though it's counted as a COVID statistic:

Aaron Doherty: Son's 'devastating death not a Covid-19 statistic'

The father of Aaron Doherty, 17, says the family have been told he died from heart failure.

www.bbc.co.uk

"These headlines are very hurting to us, that he has become a statistic of Covid-19," he said.

"I don't want him to be remembered as a statistic, as the youngest person to have died of Covid. As far as we are concerned he died of heart failure."

He added: "We just have to get our point across. Aaron at the time of his death was Covid negative, we were told he had heart failure, that they couldn't resuscitate him."

The Department of Health includes anyone who had died within 28 days of receiving a positive test for Covid-19 as a coronavirus-related death.

This is a very sad story, and just an example that people's deaths are being used to drive the narrative of overall COVID mortality figures.

 

[brad465]

Apparently we are now ahead of the reasonable worst-case scenario the Government and co. had been planning for, with 4x as many infections at this stage as they planned for:

Covid spreading faster in England than 'worst-case scenario', documents show

Infection levels in England are about four times higher than the government's worst-case winter plan.

www.bbc.co.uk

Covid is spreading "significantly" faster through England than even the government's predicted "worst-case" scenario, documents reveal.

The Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage) says there are around four times as many people catching Covid than anticipated.

A "reasonable worst-case scenario" is used by officials and the NHS to plan for the months ahead.

It had estimated 85,000 deaths from Covid over the course of winter.

But an official Sage document, dated 14 October and published today, reveals we are in a worse position than expected.

Scientists crunching the numbers estimated that, by mid-October, there were between 43,000 and 74,000 people being infected with coronavirus every day in England.

Their report said: "This is significantly above the profile of the reasonable worst-case scenario, where the number of daily infections in England remained between 12,000-13,000 throughout October."

It added that the number of people with Covid needing hospital care is already higher than the winter plan and deaths will "almost certainly" exceed the plan in the next two weeks.

However, this is not the same as saying more than 85,000 people will die this winter. Government action can still change the course of the pandemic.

The report stated that if cases fall in the "very near future" then the higher than anticipated deaths "might only continue for three to four weeks".

But if cases are not brought under control then the "epidemic will further diverge from the planning scenario", it added.

Even if cases are brought under control today, deaths would be expected to rise for another month due to the time between when some somebody is infected, when they need hospital care and when they die.

My view is this doesn't necessarily mean the situation is going to be 4x worse, it may just be things are happening earlier than anticipated, where the faster and earlier the virus spreads, the sooner this wave/peak will turn a corner and decline. This article also is about a report from 2 weeks ago, and ONS data released today has a continued gradual decline in R (though still 1.1-1.3) and that in the North-East infections are levelling off, so this peak may already be on the horizon if this trend follows elsewhere regionally.

 

[bramling]

Apparently we are now ahead of the reasonable worst-case scenario the Government and co. had been planning for, with 4x as many infections at this stage as they planned for:

Covid spreading faster in England than 'worst-case scenario', documents show

Infection levels in England are about four times higher than the government's worst-case winter plan.

www.bbc.co.uk

My view is this doesn't necessarily mean the situation is going to be 4x worse, it may just be things are happening earlier than anticipated, where the faster and earlier the virus spreads, the sooner this wave/peak will turn a corner and decline. This article also is about a report from 2 weeks ago, and ONS data released today has a continued gradual decline in R (though still 1.1-1.3) and that in the North-East infections are levelling off, so this peak may already be on the horizon if this trend follows elsewhere regionally.

It’s clearly not going to continue indefinitely, as it is going to run out of people to infect. So yes the idea that it’s simply happening earlier than expected has a lot of merit, especially as it coincides with schools / universities opening up new inter-personal networks which weren’t there through the summer.

Of course meanwhile the media are going the usual scaremongering - “tsunami of cases” was a classic on Sky News last night.

 

[Domh245]

So yes the idea that it’s simply happening earlier than expected has a lot of merit, especially as it coincides with schools / universities opening up new inter-personal networks which weren’t there through the summer.

That just leaves even bigger questions about the quality of the modelling. It's not as if most of the modellers are based in institutions who follow an "academic year", oh hang on...

 

[Bantamzen]

Apparently we are now ahead of the reasonable worst-case scenario the Government and co. had been planning for, with 4x as many infections at this stage as they planned for:

Covid spreading faster in England than 'worst-case scenario', documents show

Infection levels in England are about four times higher than the government's worst-case winter plan.

www.bbc.co.uk

My view is this doesn't necessarily mean the situation is going to be 4x worse, it may just be things are happening earlier than anticipated, where the faster and earlier the virus spreads, the sooner this wave/peak will turn a corner and decline. This article also is about a report from 2 weeks ago, and ONS data released today has a continued gradual decline in R (though still 1.1-1.3) and that in the North-East infections are levelling off, so this peak may already be on the horizon if this trend follows elsewhere regionally.

My view is simple. The illness that this virus can cause in some people is already being talked about in the region of an IFR of around 0.2-0.3%. That is to say that around 99.7% people who contract the virus will survive. Now when you consider that influenza can have an of up to IFR of 0.1%, and we still don't have reliable data on the number of people exposed to SARS-COV-2, its rapidly looking like this latest virus is a worst a bit more serious than flu.

Yet here we are, many months down the road treating this new variant of a coronavirus as if it were the Black Plague. Some perspective is desperately needed before the village fully burns down.

 

[bramling]

My view is simple. The illness that this virus can cause in some people is already being talked about in the region of an IFR of around 0.2-0.3%. That is to say that around 99.7% people who contract the virus will survive. Now when you consider that influenza can have an of up to IFR of 0.1%, and we still don't have reliable data on the number of people exposed to SARS-COV-2, its rapidly looking like this latest virus is a worst a bit more serious than flu.

Yet here we are, many months down the road treating this new variant of a coronavirus as if it were the Black Plague. Some perspective is desperately needed before the village fully burns down.

To be honest it feels like the village is already burning down. I am utterly sick of all this, especially the way some people are reacting.

 

[kez19]

To be honest it feels like the village is already burning down. I am utterly sick of all this, especially the way some people are reacting.

People I have spoken to even in my work are now at the stage of getting on in life whilst at same time we can't go on like this, (I should also mention even some locals) but I feel indeed a tide is turning but if your local MPs/politicians and media don't pick up on this it will backfire on them massively or is it that they themselves are choosing to ignore it? I think people are losing trust in both MPs and media and as much as I can't stand Trump but in one way it'll all be "fake news"

Just to add even speaking to a local taxi driver and it was one think you could say we agreed on, if these people ie MP's make these rules then they should be following them though but if they aren't doing that anyway so why should the public bother? As I have seen possibly on this thread or it was a news article police are quick to fine students/citizens without issue in the wrong but politicians its a free pass? So why should the public even bother when these politicians get away with it?

 

[yorksrob]

An interesting article on hospital prepararion on the BBC:

Covid: How busy are hospitals as the second wave rolls in?

Some routine treatments are being cancelled but there is space, if not enough staff.

www.bbc.co.uk

"Hospitals effectively have between 10% and 30% less capacity than they would normally. You cannot expect every bed to be full."

image copyrightChart

One of the problems, he says, is that the NHS has so little wriggle room, having less space, equipment and beds than hospitals in other western European countries.
England's NHS medical director Prof Stephen Powis says there are measures in place to combat this with a "landmark deal" in place with the independent sector to carry out routine treatments and the network of field hospitals, known as Nightingales in England, available if needed.
In fact, the one in Manchester is expected to start taking non-Covid patients in the coming weeks to ease the pressure in the north west.

Perhaps our Government might like to explain how we come to only have 246 hospital beds per 100,000 people, compared to 591 in France and 800 in Germany !

It seems like austerity policies of the past are biting us on the arse now, eh Mr Osborne ?

 

[Jamiescott1]

we come to only have 246 hospital beds per person,

That still means the uk has over 17 billion hospital beds - more than enough

 

[yorksrob]

That still means the uk has over 17 billion hospital beds - more than enough

oops ! corrected

 

[DustyBin]

I don’t really like the DM but this piece by Peter Hitchens is spot on:

PETER HITCHENS: The dictators have taken over

PETER HITCHENS: It may even be that the British Revolution, a horror that this country has repeatedly escaped by good sense and natural conservatism, has actually taken place.

www.dailymail.co.uk

As this is a rail forum I thought this bit in regard to Johnson and Hancock was particularly apt:

I see them as two schoolboys on the footplate of an old-fashioned steam locomotive, clattering into deepening twilight, too scared to call for help, too vain to admit their error. They started it moving by accident, foolishly pulling and pushing at levers whose functions they did not know. Now they cannot find the brakes. The safety valves are blocked. The whistle screams, the pace gathers.

Alas, the rest of us are trapped in the lurching, bucketing train behind them, unable to reach or influence them, let alone stop them.

 

[SS4]

People I have spoken to even in my work are now at the stage of getting on in life whilst at same time we can't go on like this, (I should also mention even some locals) but I feel indeed a tide is turning but if your local MPs/politicians and media don't pick up on this it will backfire on them massively or is it that they themselves are choosing to ignore it? I think people are losing trust in both MPs and media and as much as I can't stand Trump but in one way it'll all be "fake news"

Just to add even speaking to a local taxi driver and it was one think you could say we agreed on, if these people ie MP's make these rules then they should be following them though but if they aren't doing that anyway so why should the public bother? As I have seen possibly on this thread or it was a news article police are quick to fine students/citizens without issue in the wrong but politicians its a free pass? So why should the public even bother when these politicians get away with it?

It won't backfire on them because the next election is in 2024 and you can bet your bottom dollar that they won't call an election early - even in these "unprecedented" times we're not allowed a say in who should guide us through this pandemic. Then again it's a total farce anyway as our head of government got his position on less than 100,000 votes. That's 10% the population of Birmingham...

It's always been one rule for the rich and famous and another for everyone else. Would you or I escape consequences for illegitimately accessing celebrities' voicemails and publishing them? The press support the government and the government support the press - the high barrier to entry for any decent circulation or legitimacy is very high - compounded by the existing outlets doing all they can to stop that- and requires a lot of money and it turns out most people with money like getting more no matter the cost so lean Conservative and hence a mostly right wing press.

 

[bramling]

I don’t really like the DM but this piece by Peter Hitchens is spot on:

PETER HITCHENS: The dictators have taken over

PETER HITCHENS: It may even be that the British Revolution, a horror that this country has repeatedly escaped by good sense and natural conservatism, has actually taken place.

www.dailymail.co.uk

As this is a rail forum I thought this bit in regard to Johnson and Hancock was particularly apt:

Hitchens has been pretty good through all this, and has generally been proven right.

 

[birchesgreen]

RT posted a video of an anti-lockdown protest in "London's Trafalgar Square", except that it was Birmingham's Victoria Square. The mistake amused me.

 

[Darandio]

I don’t really like the DM but this piece by Peter Hitchens is spot on:

Words I rarely utter about anything on the DM but that wasn't a bad article at all. Until it got to the Halloween point anyway, normal service resumed.

 

[kez19]

It won't backfire on them because the next election is in 2024 and you can bet your bottom dollar that they won't call an election early - even in these "unprecedented" times we're not allowed a say in who should guide us through this pandemic. Then again it's a total farce anyway as our head of government got his position on less than 100,000 votes. That's 10% the population of Birmingham...

It's always been one rule for the rich and famous and another for everyone else. Would you or I escape consequences for illegitimately accessing celebrities' voicemails and publishing them? The press support the government and the government support the press - the high barrier to entry for any decent circulation or legitimacy is very high - compounded by the existing outlets doing all they can to stop that- and requires a lot of money and it turns out most people with money like getting more no matter the cost so lean Conservative and hence a mostly right wing press.

In Scotland we have the election next May I believe but might not have a chance in hell getting rid but I do believe in karma.

I agree with your points but I do still believe that all this will come full circle, the politicians and the media will be accountable for all this, I said this before but I believe the media are getting a thrill out of this but they seem to forget things can get nasty, public will turn against even them ie BBC licence fee, you could say Sky and it’s subscriptions.

Another point you made was in terms of government/media siding with one another, noticed this in particular with STV News for few years now (not that they don’t hide the SNP staunch approach in their reports), I again agree this is similar with BBC/ITV but who do we turn to as an alternative?

The one rule for us and them has seem to be more prominent but as I say be a member of the public be fined made make a story out of you, be an MP hit the headlines be forgotten about but not fined it’s wrong on so many levels

 

[wireforever]

Not been much coverage on the BBC today all they are bothered about is the US election same as SKY totally over the top coverage and hardly any UK news

 

[scotrail158713]

Not been much coverage on the BBC today all they are bothered about is the US election same as SKY totally over the top coverage and hardly any UK news

To be honest after all the constant covid coverage over the last 8(!) months I’m finding it a welcome break

 

[birchesgreen]

To be honest after all the constant covid coverage over the last 8(!) months I’m finding it a welcome break

Yeah i actually put a news channel on today for the first time since about April.

 

[bramling]

To be honest after all the constant covid coverage over the last 8(!) months I’m finding it a welcome break

Same here! And I don’t normally really follow US politics much at all.

 

[kez19]

Same here in terms of the World Service last night too (only briefly in the bulletins), it does make you wonder why the media are obsessed with it

 

[MattA7]

Has anyone seen the new scaremongering advert the government has released. Warning of “long COVID” presumably in a bid to scare the public of complying with their demands. What is it going to be next.

For the benefit of those who can’t view the video above - The video basically had a group of people talking about their debilitating experiences of “long covid” and how they thought it was a mild illness.

 

[Richard Scott]

Has anyone seen the new scaremongering advert the government has released. Warning of “long COVID” presumably in a bid to scare the public of complying with their demands. What is it going to be next.

For the benefit of those who can’t view the video above - The video basically had a group of people talking about their debilitating experiences of “long covid” and how they thought it was a mild illness.

I know it can't be pleasant but other viral infections can have long lasting effects. Sorry if this sounds harsh but at least they're still alive, something that can't be said for those who've committed suicide due to restrictions and those who've lost their lives with treatable ailments.

 

[bramling]

I know it can't be pleasant but other viral infections can have long lasting effects. Sorry if this sounds harsh but at least they're still alive, something that can't be said for those who've committed suicide due to restrictions and those who've lost their lives with treatable ailments.

Yes the long covid for which the government don't plan to vaccinate under 50s for...