Lockdown in England from Thursday 5 November until Wednesday 2 December

[big_rig]

So understanding these case numbers helps in predicting where we will be next month in terms of hospitalisations and deaths. Yet we can't rely on these case numbers to predict where we are next month in terms of hospitalisations and deaths.

Surely you can see the issue there?

I think the other problem beyond those you correctly identify is the hypothesis they keep trotting out in press conferences that increasing cases in working age people(who die or are hospitalised in very small numbers comparatively to the very old) automatically ‘flow up’ to corresponding increases in older people.

I may be a simpleton but I genuinely see no evidence to support this (even though it ‘makes sense’) and continue to wonder why there are still, eight months into this, significant ongoing outbreaks in care homes and hospitals. It sounds like this problem is still yet to be solved for whatever reason and instead of admitting that difficult truth the government continues to push the line that more people going to Tesco (or an office or gym or nonessential shop in this lockdown) with asymptomatic virus spark off very long and complex chains of transmission that make its way to your Nan in a care home. This also ignores the ideas now that even though the R0 may be 1.2 or whatever it’s super spreaders who transmit the majority of virus and most cases give it to very few other people. I don’t see how the lockdown makes more than a margin difference to care home/hospital deaths of the very old if the facilities they are in are still outbreak environments despite no visitors being allowed in. The ONS found a correlation between generosity of sick leave for care home staff and virus levels in their facilities - how does banning me going to work or the gym solve that?

 

[Bikeman78]

There’s no need for patronising comments like this, obviously I know that. I never mentioned Wales, you brought it up.

I think you are misunderstanding me. All I said was, I hoped traffic levels returned to what they were during first lockdown to make cycling easier and safer. I‘m not disputing that current traffic levels are high, (I know, I’m doing a lot of work around the transport sector at present) I’m saying I hope they reduce significantly. I really can’t make myself much clearer than that.

I'm not trying to be patronising. I cycle to work every day. As far as I can tell, the amount of road traffic in Cardiff has not reduced much, despite the lockdown. Maybe the English lockdown will have a greater effect but don't get your hopes up too much.

 

[Darandio]

Indeed. But which would you rather - that the numbers are taken, and available for predictive purposes; or we just wait till people turn up at hospital?

As a layman, I don't know what to read into those numbers, or the distribution between age groups within them. But just dismissing them outright makes no sense.

Surely as a layman you can at least read into it that more testing = more cases?

What I would rather see is cases not being used at all. Whether that use is for the layman to try and determine the current or future state that we are in or the inevitable media frenzy in using large case figures to whip up fear.

There could be 25,000 cases identified tomorrow but only 0.5% of those end up being hospitalised. On Tuesday there could be 18,000 cases but 2.2% of those end up being hospitalised. I cannot really see how anything can be reliably read into them to help predict a future trend other than making a wild guess, that's exactly what they seem to be doing.

And this is before we can dissect what should be determined a 'case' or not!

 

[Skimpot flyer]

The tiers of a clown, no less. Maybe there could be a campaign to get it to be the Xmas number one

My money’s on a revived Barbara Streisand & Donna Summer classic, No More Tiers (Enough Is Enough) ...

 

[SuspectUsual]

Is there any data anywhere showing the makeup of the R number? For example x% believed to pass the virus on to 0 people, y% to 1 person etc? Or is it just a single estimate?

 

[Darandio]

Is there any data anywhere showing the makeup of the R number? For example x% believed to pass the virus on to 0 people, y% to 1 person etc? Or is it just a single estimate?

I'm still convinced that the R number is still calculated by the 'Dart Theory'.

 

[Domh245]

Indeed. But which would you rather - that the numbers are taken, and available for predictive purposes; or we just wait till people turn up at hospital?

As a layman, I don't know what to read into those numbers, or the distribution between age groups within them. But just dismissing them outright makes no sense.

I honestly think that making these numbers available to the public is not helping. People start to cling on to every day's report to either justify "we should lock down harder" or whatever else their viewpoint is with little understanding of all the nuances. Similarly, the media reporting everyday "x,000 more cases and y00 deaths" every day drives an agenda that this is some super dangerous disease that we must eradicate at all costs - not intentionally but we don't see daily reports of any other medical issues, so the fact that this one does get so much attention means that it's got to be far more serious, right? Honestly if we could just remove all the data from the public's eye overnight it'd make the situation far better, but obviously we can't do that now

Is there any data anywhere showing the makeup of the R number? For example x% believed to pass the virus on to 0 people, y% to 1 person etc? Or is it just a single estimate?

It's estimated from several different estimates, themselves based on all manner of other data. The general process is outlined on the government page

 

[Ian Cunningham]

Talking of beer, it says pubs can do a takeaway service but not for alcohol. Why??

That would mean helping thousands of small independent businesses rather than boosting profits for big business party donors

 

[big_rig]

Is there any data anywhere showing the makeup of the R number? For example x% believed to pass the virus on to 0 people, y% to 1 person etc? Or is it just a single estimate?

There is something called the ‘k’ number which the article below discusses - I’m not sure if it’s specifically updated now though. We haven’t heard about it in the case for this lockdown so I guess it has spat out something inconvenient for the case for the preferred solution!

Coronavirus: What is the k number and can superspreading be stopped?

Identifying superspreading events could be crucial in the fight against the virus, scientists say.

www.bbc.co.uk

The smaller the k number is, the lower the number of people who are transmitting the disease to others is. This means more superspreaders, each individually infecting higher numbers of people.

About 10-15% of people are responsible for about 80% of infections, according to an expert.

 

[backontrack]

As I said: it was always an inevitability that we'd go into lockdown again.

It's just a real shame that we didn't go for the 'circuit breaker'-style lockdown during half-term.

 

[SuspectUsual]

There is something called the ‘k’ number which the article below discusses - I’m not sure if it’s specifically updated now though. We haven’t heard about it in the case for this lockdown so I guess it has spat out something inconvenient for the case for the preferred solution!

Coronavirus: What is the k number and can superspreading be stopped?

Identifying superspreading events could be crucial in the fight against the virus, scientists say.

www.bbc.co.uk

thanks

 

[Class 33]

It's a complete mess, as we will now see the Christmas shopping period compressed into three weeks, so can look forward to madness in the shops. Those retailers who can do a decent online offering in the meantime are perhaps in the best position.

Meanwhile we now have teaching unions agitating. What's the betting we end up with schools being closed after all?

The thing is though it may not end up being a 3 week period of Christmas shopping. If this damn reckless lockdown is extended again, then non-essential shops may not be allowed to reopen until Christmas Eve or New Year's Eve!

All high street retailers are going to be suffering absolutely massive financial losses this winter as a result of this yet another full national lockdown. And a number of them may wel end up closing down permanently.

 

[yorkie]

So 2 burning questions for me:

1) Can my mother go and see her 100 year old mother (my grandmother) by train (as she doesn't drive)?

2) And can I and my family visit my grandmother? We can drive

My grandmother lives alone, in her own flat and cannot get out on her own; therefore, she is totally reliant on us to order food and take her out for rides in the car etc. I would argue that she is in mine/my mother's support bubble even though we all live in different households. Of course, my mother and my family would visit at different times

The answer is yes

Providing you are either in a support bubble or meeting outdoors or caring for a vulnerable person.

Mode of transport doesn't make any difference.

 

[david1212]

Everything will reopen on the 2nd of December in tiers status if all goes well.

Oh yes it will - Oh no it won't ...... the traditional pantomime season starts in December

Seriously simply based on the last 8 months I have zero confidence that what is proposed for a week ahead will happen until it does on the day let alone four weeks.

It's a complete mess, as we will now see the Christmas shopping period compressed into three weeks, so can look forward to madness in the shops. Those retailers who can do a decent online offering in the meantime are perhaps in the best position.
...

If you where a retailer with X £ thounsand or £ million of Christmas stock would you really wish to gamble on being open in December to try and clear said stock or January for that matter? Time limited stuff like decorations and food gifts have basically no market come Jan 1st.
Social distancing and occupancy limits mean as a retailer you can only have a fraction of the usual footfall through the door per day even if the population come out to shop in person. Stores that are rammed full of customers just won't and can't happen in a covid-secure environment.

Whatever happens most retailers and wholesalers will be left with a lot of seasonal stock worth zero or little come 5pm 24th December. From 26th food items will sell with a discount that might be to cost price but things like cards, decorations, toiletries gift packs etc will only move with much bigger discounts.

I agree the best outlook is for those who can sell some online and by click-and-collect up to 2nd of December. Then from 3rd December, presuming it happens, open with the same restrictions as now and hope those customers who can will shop at what tradititionally are the quiet times so overall maximising foot fall.

As I said: it was always an inevitability that we'd go into lockdown again.

It's just a real shame that we didn't go for the 'circuit breaker'-style lockdown during half-term.

Further two weeks was always going to be too short so the only sensible thing about this is BoJo & Co have gone for ( at least ) four from the outset.
Had this been from 15th or 19th October then the end dates of 12th or 16th of November kept this would have given five or so weeks until Christmas rather than three.

 

[Skimpot flyer]

I find it surprising that nobody has mentioned Remembrance Sunday in regards to the new lockdown.
I wonder what the police reaction will be if people gather at memorials in town centres, as they have done in previous years.
I always stop by and pay my respects, to honour those who fought for our freedoms.
How disrespectful to their sacrifice it would be if I and others who want to do the same get arrested or hit with a huge fine?

 

[Islineclear3_1]

The answer is yes

Providing you are either in a support bubble or meeting outdoors or caring for a vulnerable person.

Mode of transport doesn't make any difference.

Thanks

 

[Llanigraham]

Do you realise that Wales is halfway through an alleged lockdown at the moment?

There’s no need for patronising comments like this, obviously I know that. I never mentioned Wales, you brought it up.

I think you are misunderstanding me. All I said was, I hoped traffic levels returned to what they were during first lockdown to make cycling easier and safer. I‘m not disputing that current traffic levels are high, (I know, I’m doing a lot of work around the transport sector at present) I’m saying I hope they reduce significantly. I really can’t make myself much clearer than that.

From my experience of acting as a Voluntary Car Driver for the Welsh Ambulance Service for the last month, and having driven everywhere from Wrexham to Cardiff, Carmarthen to Birmingham I have noticed that traffic is much lighter than I would normally expect at this time, especially considering that this also covered the school half term period.

 

[DB]

I find it surprising that nobody has mentioned Remembrance Sunday in regards to the new lockdown.
I wonder what the police reaction will be if people gather at memorials in town centres, as they have done in previous years.
I always stop by and pay my respects, to honour those who fought for our freedoms.
How disrespectful to their sacrifice it would be if I and others who want to do the same get arrested or hit with a huge fine?

I suspect the police will ignore it - would be very contentious to go in heavy-handed.

 

[Ianno87]

I find it surprising that nobody has mentioned Remembrance Sunday in regards to the new lockdown.
I wonder what the police reaction will be if people gather at memorials in town centres, as they have done in previous years.
I always stop by and pay my respects, to honour those who fought for our freedoms.
How disrespectful to their sacrifice it would be if I and others who want to do the same get arrested or hit with a huge fine?

Ironically by gathering and risking prolonging/spreading Covid, you are most likely to be putting at risk people old enough to have been in active service in WW2.

The most respectful thing to do would be to not gather, for this year only.

 

[DustyBin]

Ironically by gathering and risking prolonging/spreading Covid, you are most likely to be putting at risk people old enough to have been in active service in WW2.

The most respectful thing to do would be to not gather, for this year only.

Genuine question; I wonder what said people would have to say about it?

 

[HSTEd]

The most respectful thing to do would be to not gather, for this year only.

So the virus will magically dissapear by next November?

 

[TheSel]

The most respectful thing to do would be to not gather, for this year only.

Would it not be more respectful to attend on your own, providing the memorial is "local" to you, whatever that actually means. Thus thanking them for helping maintain our freedom to live in a democracy in which we vote for our leaders.

 

[ainsworth74]

It does seem slightly odd to be fixating on case numbers as it doesn't appear, at least to me, that it is the number of cases that have particularly driven this decision. It's the figures coming out hospitals and NHS general capacity approaching a potential crunch that appear to have spooked the Government into this action. I suspect that if cases were running at 5,000 a day but the hospital numbers were looking bad we'd have been locked down just the same as if they were running at 100,000 per day. So by all means we can continue to point to the case number and scream and shout about how it's not bad and we've reached a peak so this is all pointless, reckless damage but that doesn't seem to be the figure that tripped the Government into action so is rather pointless to focus on in my view.

 

[duncanp]

The most respectful thing to do would be to not gather, for this year only.

No it wouldn't.

Transmission of the virus has been shown to be much lower outdoors, so the risk posed by people standing near a war memorial for a few minutes is neglible.

People who are clinically vulnerable, including those who have fought in past wars, can decide for themselves whether to attend.

Even the youngest of those who fought in the Second World War will be in their nineties by now, and probably don't have many years of life left anywat.

 

[RPI]

As I said: it was always an inevitability that we'd go into lockdown again.

It's just a real shame that we didn't go for the 'circuit breaker'-style lockdown during half-term.

I'm inclined to disagree, having the half term week to trade may well turn out to be the difference between some small businesses folding or just about hanging on, especially in holiday towns.

 

[trebor79]

Ironically by gathering and risking prolonging/spreading Covid, you are most likely to be putting at risk people old enough to have been in active service in WW2.

The most respectful thing to do would be to not gather, for this year only.

Nonsense.

 

[james60059]

Time to protest this one, we can't do this.

I wonder if the truckers would be prepared to do another go-slow protest like they did back in 2000?.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 1 Nov 2020 ==

"domestic travel will be discouraged". Not forbidden. Well that's me still travelling then. The nature of what I'm travelling for is very solitary anyway (long distance walk with one other person) so I think my common sense will win out here.

Until the TOC's start the "essential travel only" again

Personally, I think it's a joke, I work in a chilled food warehouse with people from many other households, and had to work throughout the last lockdown, but yet if I went out lineside watching the trains in the middle of nowhere, I run the risk of getting my collar felt. I have some work colleagues who love to play golf, which is a great sport to socially distance but yet they're closing the fairways again.

 

[adc82140]

Why is it a fallacy? If someone dies of Covid, then they tend to have been hospitalised

Not at all. Look at the differences between NHS England/Scotland/Wales/NI's hospital death rates and the UK's total published figures.

 

[Envy123]

The biggest thing I'll miss during this lockdown will be swimming. I made so much progress during the "calm before the storm" only for it to be taken away so quickly.

 

[Peter Sarf]

So long as we keep intensively testing for it, and arbitrarily preventing it's spread, we'll keep seeing "waves" until we reach a state of herd immunity.

It's not really puzzling- respiratory viruses normally spread much more in the winter.

And it does just push it into the future - there is no exit strategy, and even if it slows the spread down a bit it's just kicking the can down the road, and causing a lot of collateral damage in the process.

Arbitrarily preventing its spread does keep the numbers down enough for the NHS to cope. That allows the NHS to deal with all/some of the other non-Covid19 ailments.

Kicking the can down the road does mean less hospitalisations per week but over a longer period. Should mean overall less deaths as the NHS will be coping or coping less badly.

We’d better all hope that the hospitals don’t fill up then. Because if they’re all full with medics working flat out to stay on top of Covid related cases, the case for continued lockdown will be a whole lot stronger than you or I would want it to be.

I’d love to meet family over Christmas, but playing roulette over whether the presents will include a family dose of Covid sure takes the gloss off for me.

I agree and I really wonder if four weeks will be enough to see us through Christmas.

The late great Bernard Levin used to write of the fallacy of the altered perspective when writing about evolving responses to ethical issues. Whatever you, I or anyone else think now about lockdown over Christmas, those views will evolve as the hospital case load changes between now and Christmas. If we do end up with an overloaded health service, then the contrast between "my" right to celebrate Christmas as I choose, and the impact of more social contacts that will further increase that case load, will be stark.

Quite.

.........

Excuse me, but since when did we require "permission" to gather at a war memorial on Remembrance Sunday.

.........

To answer your question - Since Covid19. But it is up to you if you want to help control this thing.

You need to stop this daily obsession with cases. There could be 90,000 cases tomorrow because of the sheer amount of tests that are being done and the media would whip up a frenzy and proclaim it's the end of the world. In reality case numbers are worthless, the overwhelming majority of these 23,524 cases are people sat at home feeling perfectly fine and wondering why they don't feel ill.

Hospital admissions and deaths directly related to the virus are numbers that should be concentrated on.

The actual number of cases is not too helpful if you are comparing with the first wave as it is true there is a lot more testing. BUT a day by day rise or fall tells us a lot. The day to day rise in the last month has been alarming. It is the RATE of INCREASE that has triggered this lockdown not the increase on its own but how fast it has risen.

As I said: it was always an inevitability that we'd go into lockdown again.

It's just a real shame that we didn't go for the 'circuit breaker'-style lockdown during half-term.

I did fancy a lockdown including school closure for half term. But then I hoped the tiered system was going to achieve just enough. The real difference now is the colder weather and longer nights will help most viruses anyway. So keeping universities and schools open now will be a higher risk than would have been the case in summer.