Lockdown in England from Thursday 5 November until Wednesday 2 December

[big_rig]

In regard to South Korea, I posted a graph a week or so ago which compared the number of tests being carried out there with the number here in the UK. They are testing a fraction of the number of people we are which may explain why they aren’t seeing as many infections (the same applies to Japan incidentally).

I think South Korea and Japan are more comparable to Australia in that they effectively closed their borders on 1 April and have not re-opened them since (they either disallow entry from foreigners or mandate a two weeks hotel quarantine).

Track and trace systems seem to work quite happily with closed borders and very low case numbers, but don’t work when you get a decent number of infected people in the population - e.g cities in Germany such as Berlin and Frankfurt have now given up on their supposed gold standard track and trace and are just asking people to do it themselves now. I am of the opinion that a ‘gold standard track and trace system’ people are calling for during the ‘circuit breaker’ is another red herring like the moonshot testing etc.

For relevance to our lockdown, I doubt going into winter we will see sufficient decreases in cases in a month to give a track and trace system a chance. That just means extending it further into winter, based on what would just be a hypothesis

 

[yorkie]

Can we try to stick to discussing Lockdown in England from Thursday 5 November until Wednesday 2 December in this thread please.

We have numerous other threads to discuss a wide range of other topics (such as Great Barrington declaration, Sweden comparison, and much more)

If you wish to discuss something else that is not covered by an existing thread, feel free to create a new one of appropriate. Please contact us if you are unsure.

Thanks

 

[37424]

I've not slept well these past few days, reading the papers and twitter late into the night and starting again early in the morning. I've not heard from my employer what they intend to do yet, we are experimental scientists but they have usually followed the government line very closely as we are effectively a part of BEIS, so I suspect it's back to working at home full time. Office staff were already told, back in September, that they would probably not be back until March next year. My spider senses are tingling a bit - the mathematical modelers who advise government were clearly very, very cross their ideas weren't taken up earlier this month, so I find it a bit suspicious they suddenly produce a load of non-peer reviewed apocalyptic forecasts, but we are where we are.

I have a horrible feeling this 'lockdown' won't deliver the outcome our leaders want:

1. The kids are (rightly) still in school and they seem to want university to continue - this will in effect 'link' many households
2. Many more companies (and possibly retailers) might try and perform mental gymnastics to justify staying open
3. Compliance. Will be interested to see what happens here - I wonder how long before Hancock is on the telly making petulant threats?

Gove's comments this morning don't fill me with confidence, and I notice rent-a-gob Jeremy Farrar is also holding court. My feeling is this either gets extended or they do something very sneaky like 'release' the country into Tier 3 restrictions, which I believe Farrar has already suggested.

Well in the last lockdown there were companies which shutdown which didn't really need to, or perhaps shutdown in the sense of finding a way they could operate in a covid safe way before they reopened, so such as a lot of manufacturing shutdown last time which won't need to this time as already stated by Boris, and even such as Mcdonald's takeaway/drive through shutdown last time until they found a covid way of working but wont need to this time. My own company Argos SAS closed last time however it would appear management is looking for clarification as to whether can stay open for click and collect only.

As for Schools its a difficult one because out of School in the last lockdown on some of my friends estate's they were going around in large groups and mixing anyway.

 

[317 forever]

Everything will reopen on the 2nd of December in tiers status if all goes well.

If we stay in lockdown on December 2nd and in particular over Christmas it will all end in tears. If not, it will end in tiers.

 

[SuspectUsual]

If we stay in lockdown on December 2nd and in particular over Christmas it will all end in tears. If not, it will end in tiers.

The tiers of a clown, no less. Maybe there could be a campaign to get it to be the Xmas number one

 

[317 forever]

Michael Gove has just come on Sky News to say that the lockdown could be extended. This gives me cause for optimism, because the opposite of what Gove says normally happens.

Furthermore, we already know from the Brexit referendum that he is not necessarily keen on following the experts.

 

[kristiang85]

Well, I was meant to be going on holiday in mid-November, so I've just rung the airline and it seems I can change my ticket for free to this Wednesday. So now I'm going to spend a couple of weeks in a bolthole on the Turkish coast working then heading off to enjoy my original plans until the end of the month (more to the point, I couldn't actually cancel them as it would have been 'my choice' and the insurance didn't cover lockdowns).

A month of sitting in the dark doing nothing but work here didn't really appeal, so this decision has lifted my mood immeasurably.

Turkey also has a very cheap and accessible testing system at its airports, so as long as I keep getting tested as I go, I feel very safe doing it this way.

 

[TheSel]

...
Turkey also has a very cheap and accessible testing system at its airports, so as long as I keep getting tested as I go, I feel very safe doing it this way.

So, if you test positive at any point (and I'm sure we ALL on this forum very much hope you don't), but IF you do, will you stay in Turkey, or return to the UK?

 

[kristiang85]

So, if you test positive at any point (and I'm sure we ALL on this forum very much hope you don't), but IF you do, will you stay in Turkey, or return to the UK?

It's an automatic 14 days in a Turkish quarantine centre, at my cost. Then depending on where it is in my trip, I can continue or come home. But that's a risk I'm willing to take. And with the insurance I have, I do then at least have cancellations covered if I need to undergo COVID quarantine (it's not cheap, mind!).

 

[Luke McDonnell]

Over the course of the pandemic so far I have been very sensible - working from home, wearing masks, practicing meticulous hand hygiene including when travelling by train and keeping to a 2m distance from people I am not interacting with. But I am annoyed that it has now come to a point were more severe restrictions have been imposed especially with leaving secondary and higher education open. Many of these business have gone to great lengths to be Covid secure but now including masks, social distancing and hand sanitizer so the puzzling think is why these basic measures which are the less economically and socially damaging interventions have failed to be sufficient to keep this under control to an acceptable level and again we have to resort to much more economical and socially damaging restrictions? Why? Also with mask wearing now being widespread why has it got to a point where there could be more severe C19 patients than the first wave? While masks will not stop all transmission I thought the evidence is that they reduce viral load so with widespread mask use so you would at least expect a reduction in severe Covid cases resulting in hospitalisaiton. Looking at the stats I cannot see many statistics that break down the source of infection for those testing positive especially those severe cases resulting in hospitalisation. Do you think most of the severe cases and ICU cases are mainly intra-household transmission as we do not tend to wear masks in the home? The argument of masks reducing viral load in addition to good ventilation makes it ridiculous to close non essential shops. Also with the new treatments we have why (and masks etc) why are we seeing even predictions of thousands of deaths per day? Especially that we know how to treat this virus a lot better in ICU now?

I am on the autistic spectrum and I have got friends that I have not seen since March and I would really like to see again. I have been very sensible during this pandemic as I have outlined above - I am intelligent and have the ability to judge my own risk and my risk to others. I have been out with a friend a few times on train trips and I have a good time meeting (even though I am technically not permitted to meet indoors due to my area being in Tier 3) because I follow all the other sensible precautions but just sticking to 1x friend as a sort of support bubble is very good for my mental health (technically I should not be doing this as I live with my parents who 'bubbles' with my sister but I am using common sense). I am no Covid denier by any means I know from the evidence that I have read that it has a fatality rate quite a bit higher than seasonal flu and it particularly dangerous to the elderly but my personal risk of dying from it or even requiring medical intervention at my age is very low. But I believe in a common sense approach and simply trying to restrict or criminalize normal human social behavior is not a way to deal with a pandemic. From the danger that Covid poses, I believe that we do need to restrict large gatherings (house parties etc.) but prohibiting socialising with 1 or 2 friends is a step too far IMO and it is good that generally the authorities tasked with enforcement (the police and local authorities) are focusing on large gatherings and not intervening when you have 1 or 2 friends around for a drink.

I have reluctantly accepted a circuit breaker lockdown but hearing from the politicians this morning both in Government and Opposition as well as some scientists worry me that it might last longer or much longer than a quick circuit breaker lockdown. My worry is that in the current circumstances it just pushes the problem into the future. Also asking when do you expect the vaccines to be start to be administered and when should we be expecting the Phase 3 results to report - if we had some good news on the vaccine front it would really put my mind at ease that we have got light at the end of the tunnel.

Luke

 

[DB]

It's not really puzzling- respiratory viruses normally spread much more in the winter.

And it does just push it into the future - there is no exit strategy, and even if it slows the spread down a bit it's just kicking the can down the road, and causing a lot of collateral damage in the process.

 

[Whistler40145]

Well, another complete mess by Boris Johnson. I'm wondering if he was related to Captain George Mainwaring from Dad's Army

 

[Domh245]

While masks will not stop all transmission I thought the evidence is that they reduce viral load so with widespread mask use so you would at least expect a reduction in severe Covid cases resulting in hospitalisaiton

Almost as if that evidence was pretty sketchy in the first place

 

[yorkie]

It's not really puzzling- respiratory viruses normally spread much more in the winter.

And it does just push it into the future - there is no exit strategy, and even if it slows the spread down a bit it's just kicking the can down the road, and causing a lot of collateral damage in the process.

The exit strategy is total reliance on a vaccine (for the over 50s); see my thread on the subject.

As for masks there is a dedicated thread on the topic.

 

[DB]

Almost as if that evidence was pretty sketchy in the first place

And the viral load argument seems to have been dreamed up by the mask proponents once it became clear that mask mandation had had no measurable effect on transmission.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 1 Nov 2020 ==

The exit strategy is total reliance on a vaccine (for the over 50s); see my thread on the subject.

Even then, it's barely a strategy - it's gambling on a vaccine which isn't even guaranteed to appear, and if it does there is no timescale and no guarantee of effectiveness. And it largely ignores thr issue of how long it would take to manufacture and deploy it.

 

[Energy]

Going back to schools. Online schooling has the issue of lacking motivation, suddenly deadlines aren't that tight and a message asking where work is doesn't provide the same motivation as being asked in person.

I would be in support of limiting the number of people in schools, maybe having 2 days a week learning from home and 3 days a week in school or something like that.

 

[Class 33]

23,254 cases today. Some 11 days since we could well have reached the peak of 26,888 on 21st October. Although we're not really clearly getting those cases down yet, we are remaining fairly stable at the moment. And cases are certainly not "surging out of control" like all these politicians, scientists and "experts" are saying. I'm keeping my fingers crossed that we are not going to exceed 26,888 cases and that cases steadily start heading south.

That said though I'm not too confident that this damn full national lockdown will actually end on 2nd December. Wouldn't be atall surprised if come 2nd December we get another press conference, and whoever in the cabinet is on the podium will say "We've reviewed the data, and we've decided to extend the lockdown for another 4 weeks.". Wouldn't be atall surprised!

In the meantime though, this month will be a very miserable month for many, because of this damn lockdown again and the problems it will cause.

 

[Bikeman78]

traffic hasn’t reduced anywhere now vs pre covid. I was talking about during first lockdown when the traffic levels were 30% of normal.

Do you realise that Wales is halfway through an alleged lockdown at the moment?

 

[Islineclear3_1]

So 2 burning questions for me:

1) Can my mother go and see her 100 year old mother (my grandmother) by train (as she doesn't drive)?

2) And can I and my family visit my grandmother? We can drive

My grandmother lives alone, in her own flat and cannot get out on her own; therefore, she is totally reliant on us to order food and take her out for rides in the car etc. I would argue that she is in mine/my mother's support bubble even though we all live in different households. Of course, my mother and my family would visit at different times

 

[Darandio]

23,524 cases today. Some 11 days since we could well have reached the peak of 26,888 on 21st October. Although we're not really clearly getting those cases down yet, we are remaining fairly stable at the moment. And cases are certainly not "surging out of control" like all these politicians, scientists and "experts" are saying. I'm keeping my fingers crossed that we are not going to exceed 26,888 cases and that cases steadily start heading south.

That said though I'm not too confident that this damn full national lockdown will actually end on 2nd December. Wouldn't be atall surprised if come 2nd December we get another press conference, and whoever in the cabinet is on the podium will say "We've reviewed the data, and we've decided to extend the lockdown for another 4 weeks.". Wouldn't be atall surprised!

In the meantime though, this month will be a very miserable month for many, because of this damn lockdown again and the problems it will cause.

You need to stop this daily obsession with cases. There could be 90,000 cases tomorrow because of the sheer amount of tests that are being done and the media would whip up a frenzy and proclaim it's the end of the world. In reality case numbers are worthless, the overwhelming majority of these 23,524 cases are people sat at home feeling perfectly fine and wondering why they don't feel ill.

Hospital admissions and deaths directly related to the virus are numbers that should be concentrated on.

 

[Skimpot flyer]

Couple of quick questions, I can't find anything about this on the gov.uk website (there's a surprise) :

I have a carpet due to be fitted in 16th Nov. Will this be allowed to go ahead?

Can I still have the cleaner round to the house?

The only thing that should be carpeted after Thursday is the government! Axe Ministers

 

[RPI]

No.

Kids have already had far too much disruption to their education.

I quite agree, I have a 6 year old who really struggled not being at school before, she was mostly ahead in her class then crash, she's only just got back into the swing of it after really struggling to get back into things. My 3 year old just started pre-school in September and the structure and routine has helped him hugely, with signs that he may be on the spectrum suddenly being stuck home again will put him even further back!

 

[35B]

You need to stop this daily obsession with cases. There could be 90,000 cases tomorrow because of the sheer amount of tests that are being done and the media would whip up a frenzy and proclaim it's the end of the world. In reality cases numbers are worthless, the overwhelming majority of these 23,524 cases are people sat at home feeling perfectly fine and wondering why they don't feel ill.

Hospital admissions and deaths directly related to the virus are numbers that should be concentrated on.

But as deaths follow hospitalisations, and hospitalisations follow cases, those numbers do matter. As does the distribution of cases between different age groups. And as there's a lag between falling ill, hospitalisation, and death, interpreting the case numbers now is an important part of predicting where we will be in a month's time.

Of course, the limited understanding of those correlations, means that it's seriously difficult to interpret what the current case figures may mean about the impact on hospitalisations. None of which is helped by the degree of dogmatism that lies around reactions to government announcements.

 

[w1bbl3]

It's a complete mess, as we will now see the Christmas shopping period compressed into three weeks, so can look forward to madness in the shops. Those retailers who can do a decent online offering in the meantime are perhaps in the best position.

If you where a retailer with X £ thounsand or £ million of Christmas stock would you really wish to gamble on being open in December to try and clear said stock or January for that matter? Time limited stuff like decorations and food gifts have basically no market come Jan 1st.

Social distancing and occupancy limits mean as a retailer you can only have a fraction of the usual footfall through the door per day even if the population come out to shop in person. Stores that are rammed full of customers just won't and can't happen in a covid-secure environment.

 

[35B]

I quite agree, I have a 6 year old who really struggled not being at school before, she was mostly ahead in her class then crash, she's only just got back into the swing of it after really struggling to get back into things. My 3 year old just started pre-school in September and the structure and routine has helped him hugely, with signs that he may be on the spectrum suddenly being stuck home again will put him even further back!

It also applies to older children - my kids are in years 8 and 11, and both were set back by lockdown.

 

[RPI]

Also has Boris and other members of the cabinet not taken into account we may have reached the peak in cases? Cases hit 26,888 NINE days ago, and cases have not risen to or above that amount since! We may have reached the peak. Why go into a catastrophic 4 week national lockdown??!!

Really can't stand much more of this. It's been 7 months of all this now, and things are just getting worst and worst. Not sure how I'm going to react if indeed there is an "address to the nation" on Monday that we're going into this 4 week lockdown. My mental health and anger will hit boiling point I think.

I'm with you there, I'm lucky to be still working full time and with college's and schools staying open we'll still need to be working on trains etc, but I'm on the edge now and I'm someone who generally is quite strong mentally (at least i think I am) and I live in an area that hasn't been badly affected yet we're all being tarred with the same brush

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 1 Nov 2020 ==

It also applies to older children - my kids are in years 8 and 11, and both were set back by lockdown.

Its the same right up to teenagers too, its becoming a joke

 

[Darandio]

But as deaths follow hospitalisations, and hospitalisations follow cases, those numbers do matter. As does the distribution of cases between different age groups. And as there's a lag between falling ill, hospitalisation, and death, interpreting the case numbers now is an important part of predicting where we will be in a month's time.

Of course, the limited understanding of those correlations, means that it's seriously difficult to interpret what the current case figures may mean about the impact on hospitalisations. None of which is helped by the degree of dogmatism that lies around reactions to government announcements.

So understanding these case numbers helps in predicting where we will be next month in terms of hospitalisations and deaths. Yet we can't rely on these case numbers to predict where we are next month in terms of hospitalisations and deaths.

Surely you can see the issue there?

 

[jtuk]

But as deaths follow hospitalisations, and hospitalisations follow cases, those numbers do matter

Ah, back to this fallacy

 

[35B]

So understanding these case numbers helps in predicting where we will be next month in terms of hospitalisations and deaths. Yet we can't rely on these case numbers to predict where we are next month in terms of hospitalisations and deaths.

Surely you can see the issue there?

Indeed. But which would you rather - that the numbers are taken, and available for predictive purposes; or we just wait till people turn up at hospital?

As a layman, I don't know what to read into those numbers, or the distribution between age groups within them. But just dismissing them outright makes no sense.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 1 Nov 2020 ==

Ah, back to this fallacy

Why is it a fallacy? If someone dies of Covid, then they tend to have been hospitalised, and before that will tend to have been diagnosed. What the ratios between these are is a very different question.

 

[MalaiseForever]

Do you realise that Wales is halfway through an alleged lockdown at the moment?

There’s no need for patronising comments like this, obviously I know that. I never mentioned Wales, you brought it up.

I think you are misunderstanding me. All I said was, I hoped traffic levels returned to what they were during first lockdown to make cycling easier and safer. I‘m not disputing that current traffic levels are high, (I know, I’m doing a lot of work around the transport sector at present) I’m saying I hope they reduce significantly. I really can’t make myself much clearer than that.