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2020 US Presidential Election

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edwin_m

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And what exactly is the connection of this to the railway
"Amtrak Joe" Biden was a long-distance commuter for many years because he wanted to be back with his family in Delaware after each day in Washington (this was after he'd lost his first wife and oldest child in a car accident). Amongst America's politicians he's one of the most in favour of reinvigorating the passenger rail network.
 
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GRALISTAIR

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"Amtrak Joe" Biden was a long-distance commuter for many years because he wanted to be back with his family in Delaware after each day in Washington (this was after he'd lost his first wife and oldest child in a car accident). Amongst America's politicians he's one of the most in favour of reinvigorating the passenger rail network.
Now that is a good comment.
 

daodao

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"Amtrak Joe" Biden was a long-distance commuter for many years because he wanted to be back with his family in Delaware after each day in Washington (this was after he'd lost his first wife and oldest child in a car accident). Amongst America's politicians he's one of the most in favour of reinvigorating the passenger rail network.
Biden's election, which now seems likely, will be good for Amtrak and urban rail transit but bad for the UK, particularly post Brexit. He is likely to side with Eire and by inference the EU in any dispute/conflict the UK has with them.
 

Typhoon

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Biden's election, which now seems likely, will be good for Amtrak and urban rail transit but bad for the UK, particularly post Brexit. He is likely to side with Eire and by inference the EU in any dispute/conflict the UK has with them.
Whoever the Democratic candidate was that was always going to be the case, it was just the degree. As someone who has spent a very long time in politics, I think that Biden would be more pragmatic than most. Our Prime Minister's statement about the last Democratic president and his background will not have helped matters!
 

edwin_m

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Biden's election, which now seems likely, will be good for Amtrak and urban rail transit but bad for the UK, particularly post Brexit. He is likely to side with Eire and by inference the EU in any dispute/conflict the UK has with them.
I'd say on balance we benefit from a more fair and predictable US foreign policy and a return to international agreements and institutions, even if our specific interests (which may of course just be the interests of the clique that runs our government) aren't always served.
 

najaB

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He is likely to side with Eire and by inference the EU in any dispute/conflict the UK has with them
If by "Eire" you mean Ireland then it's to be expected that the USA will prioritise relations with the block with a population of 400+ million over the needs of an island and a quarter of some 65 million. The "special relationship" only goes so far.
 

Domh245

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The "special relationship" only goes so far.

I saw this somewhere else, but it's not "the" special relationship, as far as the US are concerned. To them it's just "a" special relationship, one that's far less useful now
 

DynamicSpirit

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I'd say on balance we benefit from a more fair and predictable US foreign policy and a return to international agreements and institutions, even if our specific interests (which may of course just be the interests of the clique that runs our government) aren't always served.

I would agree, and I'd say we benefit far more from a Biden presidency than a Trump one.

Biden would give us:
  • Stability
  • Support for NATO and better communication with the UK and other partners
  • More consistent and effective opposition to Russia and authoritarian dictatorships, which ties in with the UK's interests
  • More action against climate change
  • A generally more rational foreign policy that will help make the World a bit safer

Trump would give us:
  • A trade deal (The desirability of which is a bit iffy anyway)
Really the only people in the UK who would benefit from more years of Trump are Boris and those right-wingers in the Tory Party who've to some extent tied their political careers to Trump's brand of politics.
 

37424

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Biden's election, which now seems likely, will be good for Amtrak and urban rail transit but bad for the UK, particularly post Brexit. He is likely to side with Eire and by inference the EU in any dispute/conflict the UK has with them.
I don't think it will be bad for the UK i will stop Boris behaving like Poundland Trump at times, and it will make a trade deal with the EU more important which should be a priority anyway. If Trump wins I think it highly likely Boris will walk away from an EU trade deal in favour of an iffy trade deal with Trump

As for Amtrak I guess Biden might be good but it will take a lot of money the reinvigorate Amtrak, anybody who has been on it will know that most of it is Slow and like something out of the ark.

I would agree, and I'd say we benefit far more from a Biden presidency than a Trump one.

Biden would give us:
  • Stability
  • Support for NATO and better communication with the UK and other partners
  • More consistent and effective opposition to Russia and authoritarian dictatorships, which ties in with the UK's interests
  • More action against climate change
  • A generally more rational foreign policy that will help make the World a bit safer

Trump would give us:
  • A trade deal (The desirability of which is a bit iffy anyway)
Really the only people in the UK who would benefit from more years of Trump are Boris and those right-wingers in the Tory Party who've to some extent tied their political careers to Trump's brand of politics.

Indeed
 

najaB

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As for Amtrak I guess Biden might be good but it will take a lot of money the reinvigorate Amtrak, anybody who has been on it will know that most of it is Slow and like something out of the ark
The main issue is that they own very little of the track outside the Washington/New York corridor, so they're at the mercy of the freight companies. Not sure what any president can do about that without buying out the trackage.

Substantial increase to the track access payments so that it's more profitable to let the freight wait, maybe?
 

edwin_m

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The main issue is that they own very little of the track outside the Washington/New York corridor, so they're at the mercy of the freight companies. Not sure what any president can do about that without buying out the trackage.

Substantial increase to the track access payments so that it's more profitable to let the freight wait, maybe?
That would essentially be a bung to the freight companies, and I wouldn't put it past them to keep producing "analysis" that shows that they need more money to offset their loss of profits. It might also have the effect of pushing some long-distance freight onto the highway.

To be honest there's probably little that can be done about the long-distance Amtraks, other than ensuring they have the resources they need - which after years of cuts I suspect they haven't. While attractive to enthusiast visitors and transport lifelines to some communities, they don't count for much in the big piture.

The big opportunities are building some of the "commuter rail" services that just provide a handful of trains in the peaktime up to something we would recognize as a European regional service, and looking at high-speed over somewhat longer distances where rail could achieve a journey time of 3hr or so to be time-competitive with road and air. Although America has lots of empty space there are some clusters of big cities that could allow this, such as around the Great Lakes and expanding the one line under construction in California. There's also the more urgent project to replace the Hudson tunnels so as to assure the future of the Northeast corridor.
 

37424

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That would essentially be a bung to the freight companies, and I wouldn't put it past them to keep producing "analysis" that shows that they need more money to offset their loss of profits. It might also have the effect of pushing some long-distance freight onto the highway.

To be honest there's probably little that can be done about the long-distance Amtraks, other than ensuring they have the resources they need - which after years of cuts I suspect they haven't. While attractive to enthusiast visitors and transport lifelines to some communities, they don't count for much in the big piture.

The big opportunities are building some of the "commuter rail" services that just provide a handful of trains in the peaktime up to something we would recognize as a European regional service, and looking at high-speed over somewhat longer distances where rail could achieve a journey time of 3hr or so to be time-competitive with road and air. Although America has lots of empty space there are some clusters of big cities that could allow this, such as around the Great Lakes and expanding the one line under construction in California. There's also the more urgent project to replace the Hudson tunnels so as to assure the future of the Northeast corridor.
They could but I expect it would be expensive and the problem with fast medium distance routes compared to Europe is that a lot of European Cities are quite compact compared to USA Cities so your journey to your final destination from the station may be much longer, Plus most USA cities are still more car friendly than European ones. In any case if Biden does win I doubt Amtrak will be a top priority.
 

ainsworth74

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On the flipside, if Trump loses Farage will probably come back...

Apparently Trump has threatened to come here (or more accurately Scotland) if he loses to enjoy his new golf resort up there...
 

Cowley

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Apparently Trump has threatened to come here (or more accurately Scotland) if he loses to enjoy his new golf resort up there...
Is he potentially under threat of ending up in court or possibly even prison once he’s left the White House and doesn’t have the ability to block investigations/pardon people on his side etc?
I could see him wanting to get out of the US if he loses, but if things did get bad for him he wouldn’t be safe in Scotland anyway I assume?

One thing I’m fairly sure on is that the noise he makes on Twitter won’t stop no matter what the result, he’ll be telling everyone that he was the greatest president ever and that he was stitched up by the establishment for the rest of his days!
 

hexagon789

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The main issue is that they own very little of the track outside the Washington/New York corridor, so they're at the mercy of the freight companies.

Stricly speaking Amtrak legally has priority over freight, the issue is mainly down to timetabling and the inability to pass freights or regain lost time rather than freights being given priority. In Canada the opposite applies, freight has priority over VIA and that was one of the main reasons the schedule of The Canadian was padded out again to try and ensure the schedule as advertised could be reliably met with having to wait so often for freights to pass on both directions.

Is he potentially under threat of ending up in court or possibly even prison once he’s left the White House and doesn’t have the ability to block investigations/pardon people on his side etc?
I could see him wanting to get out of the US if he loses, but if things did get bad for him he wouldn’t be safe in Scotland anyway I assume?

One thing I’m fairly sure on is that the noise he makes on Twitter won’t stop no matter what the result, he’ll be telling everyone that he was the greatest president ever and that he was stitched up by the establishment for the rest of his days!

I think it's unlikely, you only have to look at how his impeachment trial went to get a flavour of the politicking that goes on in the US justice system.
 

37424

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Is he potentially under threat of ending up in court or possibly even prison once he’s left the White House and doesn’t have the ability to block investigations/pardon people on his side etc?
I could see him wanting to get out of the US if he loses, but if things did get bad for him he wouldn’t be safe in Scotland anyway I assume?

One thing I’m fairly sure on is that the noise he makes on Twitter won’t stop no matter what the result, he’ll be telling everyone that he was the greatest president ever and that he was stitched up by the establishment for the rest of his days!

Hmm Is there an uninhabited Scottish Island he can go to and never leave, his mate Farage can join him they can build a new trump tower their preferably with no internet connection, but it will be well heated from the amount of hot air they generate.

Either way if its a win for Biden I hope its decisive otherwise I expect getting him out will be a nightmare.
 

edwin_m

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They could but I expect it would be expensive and the problem with fast medium distance routes compared to Europe is that a lot of European Cities are quite compact compared to USA Cities so your journey to your final destination from the station may be much longer, Plus most USA cities are still more car friendly than European ones. In any case if Biden does win I doubt Amtrak will be a top priority.
Indeed so. Many American cities are urban sprawls with no recognizable centre, in the inner city there is so much car parking that everything else is too far to get to without driving, and local public transport is pretty desultory. Like in the UK but much more so, getting people onto trains also involves sorting out the transit links to the stations.
I think it's unlikely, you only have to look at how his impeachment trial went to get a flavour of the politicking that goes on in the US justice system.
There are still independent federal and state prosecutors, such as those who indicted Michael Cohen and Paul Manafort and are now onto his tax affairs. If Trump loses then the apparent convention that a sitting president can only be impeached not indicted no longer applies, and if the Republicans lose the Senate but Trump wins then I'd say another impeachment would follow quite soon.

One commentator suggested that Trump might agree to leave the White House quietly on condition of a presidential pardon from Biden. I would hope if that happened that he would be made to admit to all the crimes he was asking pardon for, like in South Africa after Apartheid. IF nothing else writing all those down would keep him out of mischief until January 20.
 

hexagon789

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the Republicans lose the Senate but Trump wins then I'd say another impeachment would follow quite soon.

It requires 2/3 (67 Senators) to impeach in the Senate though and there is no way even on the best blue day in the world that would happen on Tuesday that the Dems end up with 67 Senators overall (53-54 overall seems to be the high prediction for the Democrats; 48 the low prediction)


One commentator suggested that Trump might agree to leave the White House quietly on condition of a presidential pardon from Biden. I would hope if that happened that he would be made to admit to all the crimes he was asking pardon for, like in South Africa after Apartheid. IF nothing else writing all those down would keep him out of mischief until January 20.

We will see soon enough ;)
 

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One commentator suggested that Trump might agree to leave the White House quietly on condition of a presidential pardon from Biden. I would hope if that happened that he would be made to admit to all the crimes he was asking pardon for, like in South Africa after Apartheid. IF nothing else writing all those down would keep him out of mischief until January 20.

Highly doubtful that this will happen as receiving a pardon would also mean his implicit acceptance of having committed a crime. Something I can't see him ever doing. Add to that Biden has repeatedly suggested there'd be no pardon forthcoming. If Trump loses.. I can imagine jail will eventually await him. No more executive privilege, no more holding off from servicing his debts which at current estimates top $1 billion.

From tomorrow night the US will descend into a very bumpy and potentially disruptive couple of months. It makes me nervous for my friends and colleagues there.
 

najaB

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Highly doubtful that this will happen as receiving a pardon would also mean his implicit acceptance of having committed a crime. Something I can't see him ever doing. Add to that Biden has repeatedly suggested there'd be no pardon forthcoming.
Also, a presidential pardon would only have an effect on Federal offences, he would still be liable for State prosecutions. So he still face the prospect of jail time based on the investigations being conducted by New York prosecutors.
 

nlogax

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Also, a presidential pardon would only have an effect on Federal offences, he would still be liable for State prosecutions. So he still face the prospect of jail time based on the investigations being conducted by New York prosecutors.

Yes, I'd forgotten that bit. It's obvious that his desperation to stay in power by any means possible is partly fuelled by his desire to avoid due process and its ramifications which are almost certainly of the 'behind bars' flavour.
 

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Yes, I'd forgotten that bit. It's obvious that his desperation to stay in power by any means possible is partly fuelled by his desire to avoid due process and its ramifications which are almost certainly of the 'behind bars' flavour.
What is the likelihood of something like that happening to him if he leaves office this year? Are we talking low, medium or high here?
 

edwin_m

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Highly doubtful that this will happen as receiving a pardon would also mean his implicit acceptance of having committed a crime. Something I can't see him ever doing. Add to that Biden has repeatedly suggested there'd be no pardon forthcoming. If Trump loses.. I can imagine jail will eventually await him. No more executive privilege, no more holding off from servicing his debts which at current estimates top $1 billion.

From tomorrow night the US will descend into a very bumpy and potentially disruptive couple of months. It makes me nervous for my friends and colleagues there.
Also, a presidential pardon would only have an effect on Federal offences, he would still be liable for State prosecutions. So he still face the prospect of jail time based on the investigations being conducted by New York prosecutors.
The think I read suggested he'd resign in favour of Pence, who would then pardon him before handing over to Biden in January. But whoever wrote that had probably also forgotten about the issue of State prosecutions.
 

ainsworth74

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I think its unlikely though i bet he has his personal 757 fuelled up and ready to go 24/7

Assuming that he loses and loses big or the inevitable legal wrangling for a close election still puts Biden in charge I've been trying to decide between the two, in my view, most likely outcomes. I think that either a) he is going to hole up in the White House and will have to be physically removed by the Secret Service come inauguration day or b) whether he flies off on inauguration day to somewhere like Scotland. I can't quite work out which will best massage his ego which will, after all, most likely be the deciding factor.
 

Horizon22

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Whoever the Democratic candidate was that was always going to be the case, it was just the degree. As someone who has spent a very long time in politics, I think that Biden would be more pragmatic than most. Our Prime Minister's statement about the last Democratic president and his background will not have helped matters!

Bad for the UK, but in this regard I wouldn't be surprised as our government has slowly eroding relationships with most of our allies in the past few years.

Anyway, I have put on a bet on Biden to win - and got good odds on him winning either 300-329 or 330-359 seats (doesn't matter if either one wins, I make my return on both). Politics is the only thing I bet on and have a decent record after 2019 general elections.
 
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