can public transport ever recover from COVID-19

[DB]

Plus the difference between doing a job remotely, and doing that job well.

Yes, that one gets forgotten / ignored by many of those who think that there will be a wholesale move to working from home long-term!

 

[Horizon22]

Yes, that one gets forgotten / ignored by many of those who think that there will be a wholesale move to working from home long-term!

And that many people currently have to work from home in spaces that may be cramped and/or not suitable.

 

[johnnychips]

I know the Government has taken over responsibility for the trains, but (and I apologise if this is answered upthread) who is paying for the bus services at the moment? I’ve been travelling a lot around Norfolk and Suffolk the last few days, and apart from one ‘Coasthopper’ service, there have never been more than five people on the bus.

 

[Carlisle]

who is paying for the bus services at the moment?

A bus driver I know said government was currently subsidising them sufficiently to enable the running of a near normal schedule , but I dont know how long that’ll last for or if it’s UK wide

 

[radamfi]

I know the Government has taken over responsibility for the trains, but (and I apologise if this is answered upthread) who is paying for the bus services at the moment? I’ve been travelling a lot around Norfolk and Suffolk the last few days, and apart from one ‘Coasthopper’ service, there have never been more than five people on the bus.

The government is propping up deregulation indefinitely.

 

[The Ham]

I wonder what the proportion of jobs that can be done remotely is, compared to those that can't due to being customer facing, retail, transport etc.

I've seen people reference figures of 40% to 50% of jobs.

However that's probably not the same as the percentage of those who work in those in jobs and use rail.

Even then chances are that there's going to be regional variations (i.e. London, from the South East, would be much higher than that, whilst within the South West would likely be much lower).

That's before you consider those who would opt to work in the office all the time as well as how much people are likely to wish to work from home (i.e. 2 days a week vs 3 days a week). As I suspect that relatively few would choose (even if it was a option) to work entirely from home (or nearly entirely, as most would need to visit offices from time to time and even an average of 1 day a month is still about 5% in the office).

However to get significant falls (i.e. 30% or more) you'd need to have quite a lot of people working quite a lot of their time at home. For instance you'd need (of the 65% of rail use which is commuting) 75% of jobs and 70% of all days as WFH to get a 34% fall in rail use.

Conversely a 45% of jobs and 55% of all days as WFH and it would be a 16% fall in rail use.

If it goes lower still 40% of all jobs and 40% of days as WFH then that's a 10% fall.

It's why I think that somewhere between those later two rates is more likely than between the first two rates. Especially given that there's significant numbers of people who live alone (it's 1:3 households), who are unlikely to want to cut out significant amounts of social interactions by not going to the office. Even then there's a number of people I've spoken to who have highlighted that they miss the interpersonal relationships that they have with people who could potentially help them with future projects, even if they don't work together.

 

[telstarbox]

The Graph shows ticket sales still in the mid-30s. The last few days shown were under the three-tier lockdown system in England.

 

[HSTEd]

When do the "most crowded trains" stats come out?

It would be interesting to see if the rail system has actually "de-peaked", in accordance with anecdotal observations.

 

[route101]

I do think peak fares from Edinburgh to Glasgow for example in the evening should be dropped. No point to it at present.

 

[trainophile]

It wouldn't make financial sense to have nearly empty offices with just a few people in each day, but every day a different few were in. Means heating the building and getting the place cleaned etc. daily, perhaps for just a couple of occupants per day. Would make more sense to open it up on say Mondays and Fridays, which would still allow 4/5ths of the full establishment to come in one day a week and stay reasonably distanced, and the remaining 1/5th might prefer not to travel in anyway if they live further away.

 

[Jamesrob637]

It wouldn't make financial sense to have nearly empty offices with just a few people in each day, but every day a different few were in. Means heating the building and getting the place cleaned etc. daily, perhaps for just a couple of occupants per day. Would make more sense to open it up on say Mondays and Fridays, which would still allow 4/5ths of the full establishment to come in one day a week and stay reasonably distanced, and the remaining 1/5th might prefer not to travel in anyway if they live further away.

I'd argue mid week opening and everyone working from home Mondays and Fridays. Midweek is when people are willing to make longer working days.

 

[Ianno87]

When do the "most crowded trains" stats come out?

It would be interesting to see if the rail system has actually "de-peaked", in accordance with anecdotal observations.

Stats came out quite recently, meaaured pre-Covid.

The next set might have some fantastically random ones given the reduction in London-focused crowding!

 

[Reliablebeam]

Not sure if this the right thread but here goes. - there is a catering trolley on my GWR train! Hallelujah as neither coffee shop in my local station has reopened!

It's the little things.

 

[yorksrob]

Not sure if this the right thread but here goes. - there is a catering trolley on my GWR train! Hallelujah as neither coffee shop in my local station has reopened!

It's the little things.

Absolutely. The S&C trolley was back last week and I enjoyed a celebratory coffee and kitkat !

 

[Richard Scott]

Not sure if this the right thread but here goes. - there is a catering trolley on my GWR train! Hallelujah as neither coffee shop in my local station has reopened!

It's the little things.

Noticed one earlier on a train stopped at Swindon.

 

[Peter Sarf]

I wonder what the proportion of jobs that can be done remotely is, compared to those that can't due to being customer facing, retail, transport etc.

And Manufacturing. That could be a large proportion of the jobs that cannot be done from home.

It wouldn't make financial sense to have nearly empty offices with just a few people in each day, but every day a different few were in. Means heating the building and getting the place cleaned etc. daily, perhaps for just a couple of occupants per day. Would make more sense to open it up on say Mondays and Fridays, which would still allow 4/5ths of the full establishment to come in one day a week and stay reasonably distanced, and the remaining 1/5th might prefer not to travel in anyway if they live further away.

Solution is hot desking. I was threatened with that about 30 years ago. A locker for your stuff and then the whole desk cleared EVERY night. Clear desk policy was as far as it got !.

 

[Horizon22]

Not sure if this the right thread but here goes. - there is a catering trolley on my GWR train! Hallelujah as neither coffee shop in my local station has reopened!

It's the little things.

There is a limited service on some GWR services. Not everywhere, but limited on select Penzance/Plymouth/Bristol/Swansea services.

Anyway, with a 2nd lockdown imminent, it is expected and reported that there will be limits once again on travel.

 

[PTR 444]

With schools and universities allowed to remain open, I don’t expect trains will be carrying as much fresh air this time.

 

[Horizon22]

With schools and universities allowed to remain open, I don’t expect trains will be carrying as much fresh air this time.

Indeed that is a positive, and there didn't seem to be as much of a shutdown of all industries. "Work from home unless you can't" has been around for months.

 

[philosopher]

With schools and universities allowed to remain open, I don’t expect trains will be carrying as much fresh air this time.

People being allowed to see one other person outside in public spaces and the support bubble should also maintain some travel.

 

[Horizon22]

Plus if there's some travel to the Great Outdoors TM, it might claw back a bit of fare revenue and frankly the Treasury could do with all the income it could get right now. Not that November is the nicest month for that.

 

[Peter Sarf]

We might have a bit more travel required and allowed if the restrictions were less and people took more precautions (e.g. masks, distancing, washing and socialising). Instead we have lockdown. That does nothing to improve the need for transport.

 

[158756]

Plus if there's some travel to the Great Outdoors TM, it might claw back a bit of fare revenue and frankly the Treasury could do with all the income it could get right now. Not that November is the nicest month for that.

Can't see there being much demand for that in this weather.

Given there is now no possibility of improvement in railway finances in the foreseeable future the DfT should just bite the bullet and get on with right sizing the industry for the Covid world. The current situation is not sustainable.

 

[squizzler]

The graph of passenger numbers since the start of summer seems to indicate a “ratcheting up” of passenger numbers. Even with the progressively worsening situation up to now the numbers have not fallen massively. It seems that most passengers who returned to mass transport since lockdown mk1 have chosen to stay. Rail usage it seems, is “sticky” with returning customers no doubt convinced by the new levels of punctuality, space and cleanliness. I don’t think we will see anything like a drop to 5% baseline numbers this time round.

 

[yorksrob]

I think that's true. There seem to be just under 40% of passengers who are inclined to use the railway, so long as they're not specifically told to stay off it.

I dare say a decent proportion of the others could be persuaded back once the pandemic passes.

 

[trebor79]

I saw a rail replacement bus in Attleborough today (burst water main right next to the level crossing). Double decker and there seemed to be a lot of people on it, which is encouraging as the trains were empty for several months.
Last time I took the train to Norwich there were about a dozen travellers each way. I'm going to do my Christmas shopping before lockdown (I don't want to give all my business to Bezos) and will use the train so will be interesting to see what it's like.
Certainly the trains are the cleanest I've ever known (I guess being brand new also helps) and excellent punctuality.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 31 Oct 2020 ==

Given there is now no possibility of improvement in railway finances in the foreseeable future the DfT should just bite the bullet and get on with right sizing the industry for the Covid world. The current situation is not sustainable.

I think this would be incredibly short sighted. People will go back to normal as soon as the government induced hysteria stops. The jungle drums on home working being the best thing ever for businesses are already changing their tune (as I've said they would all along) and people will want to get it and about for leisure again too.
Plus there's still an environmental crisis to deal with. We need to drive less, a lot less.

 

[P Binnersley]

At the end of September there were 9.6 million people on Furlough, about a third of the working population. Some (entertainment) industries still haven't reopened. When they re-start work this will give a big boost to commuting. If they don't then empty trains will be the least of our problems.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

Well the new (draft) regulations make it very clear

You should avoid all non-essential travel by private or public transport.

Essential travel includes, but is not limited to

• essential shopping
• travelling to work where your workplace is open or you cannot work from home
• travelling to education and for caring responsibilities
• hospital GP and other medical appointments or visits where you have had an accident or are concerned about your health.

aint going to help and wouldn't be surprised if services get culled again.

 

[158756]

I think this would be incredibly short sighted. People will go back to normal as soon as the government induced hysteria stops. The jungle drums on home working being the best thing ever for businesses are already changing their tune (as I've said they would all along) and people will want to get it and about for leisure again too.
Plus there's still an environmental crisis to deal with. We need to drive less, a lot less.

The hysteria shows no sign of ending any time soon. How long is this lockdown going to be - 6 months maybe? The virus isn't going away, so both the government and opposition politicians will have restrictions continue for years. There won't be any normal to go back to anyway. Too many businesses will close permanently, too many people will be unemployed. Work from home will stay for a significant number of people even if not for everyone. The public finances are in ruins - where is the money going to come from when there is nothing coming in through the farebox? The railways might be less of a target in future if losses can be brought under control now.

 

[dk1]

I saw a rail replacement bus in Attleborough today (burst water main right next to the level crossing). Double decker and there seemed to be a lot of people on it, which is encouraging as the trains were empty for several months.
Last time I took the train to Norwich there were about a dozen travellers each way. I'm going to do my Christmas shopping before lockdown (I don't want to give all my business to Bezos) and will use the train so will be interesting to see what it's like.
Certainly the trains are the cleanest I've ever known (I guess being brand new also helps) and excellent punctuality.

Off peak train loadings have been almost back to normal loadings on the Norwich to Cambridge/Stansted route at times. Not quite so many going through to the airport. One 3-car service I worked last Friday had 125 passengers onboard from Cambridge. There was also no chance of social distancing on the 21:10 ex-Norwich & 22:55 return on the Saturday due to those out pubbing along with those diverting that way due to GEML engineering works.