Lockdown in England from Thursday 5 November until Wednesday 2 December

[Class 33]

a) they may not have peaked, - just because there is a slight dip in today's figures

Well it's been 10 days now since the height of 26,688 cases on 21st October. This is quite a time to have dipped below that number and to have not reached and exceeded that number. It is possible that cases may exceed that number again over the coming days/weeks. But it's certainly looking encouraging so far that it's now 10 days and counting and we still haven't. We have been fooled a few times before where it looks cases are heading down, but those examples were when cases had dipped down for 2, 3, 4 or 5 days and then sadly they go and rise up above that number again and we were fooled. Like for example on 14th October when cases were 19,724 and the proceeding 5 days were 18,980, 15,650, 16,171, 16,982, and 18,804. But then sadly on the 6th day after cases had rose up to 21,331. So that was 5 days the numbers had dipped below. This time so far it's 10 days and counting, which is encouragaing. So let's see what happens over the coming weeks. Got to have some positivity in these very miserable times we're in now.

 

[317 forever]

So does this mean another furlough scheme will be brought back?

The current furlough scheme due to cease tonight has been extended to early December. This is not much help to people who lost their jobs from July onwards from companies who would have had to start to pay part of their salaries.

 

[Chester1]

Quite. If I'm a Tory MP I'm quite happy for Boris to continue in post to attract as much criticism for this (and that other increasingly voluminous elephant in the room Brexit) for as long as possible. Certainly well into 2021 and then stick the knife in once he's no longer useful as a damage magnet. Right now though? I want him to stay exactly where he is as there's no point offering up someone else's career as a sacrifice.

If he has any sense he will announce on 1st January that having got brexit done he is resigning to spend more time with his new baby etc and to pass onto a leader that can unify the country post brexit. It would then take until April for a new leader to be elected and take office. By April the covid situation should be calming down as weather improves. It also means ditching a toxic figure in Scotland prior to Scottish Parliament elections in May. An opinion poll his week showed 58% support for SNP and that 79% of undecided Scottish voters did not want Boris as PM. By contrast Rishi Sunak had a rating of + 30% which is really good for a politician (I don't know the exact figures but thats approximately twice as many undecided Scottish voters like Sunak than dislike him).

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

Well it's been 10 days now since the height of 26,688 cases on 21st October. This is quite a time to have dipped below that number and to have not reached and exceeded that number. It is possible that cases may exceed that number again over the coming days/weeks. But it's certainly looking encouraging so far that it's now 10 days and counting and we still haven't. We have been fooled a few times before where it looks cases are heading down, but those examples were when cases had dipped down for 2, 3, 4 or 5 days and then sadly they go and rise up above that number again and we were fooled. Like for example on 14th October when cases were 19,724 and the proceeding 5 days were 18,980, 15,650, 16,171, 16,982, and 18,804. But then sadly on the 6th day after cases had rose up to 21,331. So that was 5 days the numbers had dipped below. This time so far it's 10 days and counting, which is encouragaing. So let's see what happens over the coming weeks. Got to have some positivity in these very miserable times we're in now.

The other important point here as well is that testing capacity and no. of tests undertaken per day have increased as well since beginning of October so overall positivity rates are falling as well.
Even Witty had to admit that the North East was seeing a declining rate where the Newcastle council identified as big surge by students who were locked down and now cases are falling.

 

[317 forever]

Have to see how its worded, and how the travel nazis enforce what they think the guidelines say.

I face a dilemma. I have booked a night in London in November. I didn't hear this but have seen a report that overnight stays are banned except for work. I have caught an overnight coach to London before but there are now none at a suitable time. There could be an unlikely salvation ....

Suppose overnight stays are banned but travel merely discouraged. I can then travel down as planned and spend the night on long rides on Night buses.

 

[Llanigraham]

Membership is of no consequence.

They will still vote for the blue rosette when ordered.

Don't bank on it!
At least one other party are reporting an increase in membership.

 

[317 forever]

Yes, for another month. Coincidentally the same length as the new lockdown. I wonder who thought of that...?
EDIT: also beaten by HLE

Yes, I heard nothing specifically banning non-essential travel*, although obviously that is implied by "you must stay at home".

*Does a trip to the Isle of Wight to go on the class 483s before they are scrapped count as essential? It'll certainly be good for my mental health!

I heard something about "exercise and recreation" being a reasonable purpose for being out. So we might be lucky.

 

[island]

I face a dilemma. I have booked a night in London in November. I didn't hear this but have seen a report that overnight stays are banned except for work. I have caught an overnight coach to London before but there are now none at a suitable time. There could be an unlikely salvation ....

Suppose overnight stays are banned but travel merely discouraged. I can then travel down as planned and spend the night on long rides on Night buses.

If it is modelled on the rules from earlier in the year, they will probably put "nobody shall remain away from home overnight without reasonable excuse".

 

[Jamesrob637]

I heard something about "exercise and recreation" being a reasonable purpose for being out. So we might be lucky.

Unlimited exercise and a companion allowed. So a bit better than in the Spring.

 

[ABB125]

Unlimited exercise and a companion allowed. So a bit better than in the Spring.

So continual star jumps on the journey to the Island then! I'm sure that'll go down well with CrossCountry

 

[brad465]

So continual star jumps on the journey to the Island then! I'm sure that'll go down well with CrossCountry

Maybe you could cycle to the island (minus the ferry) - knowing Cross Country you'll probably beat it

 

[317 forever]

If it is modelled on the rules from earlier in the year, they will probably put "nobody shall remain away from home overnight without reasonable excuse".

Sure. I am prepared that I shall not know for certain until it's all passed (assuming it is) and appears on the gov.uk website. Many people including some of us on this forum are having our travel plans disrupted. What is disappointing is that I could foresee Covid and respiratory illnesses generally making winter breaks best avoided and deliberately chose November as it is still only Autumn. I am also a little behind on national travels especially London due to the previous lockdown.

Mind you, bus & train trips do come under the category of "exercise and recreation". We still need to wait and see though.

 

[Jamesrob637]

Maybe you could cycle to the island (minus the ferry) - knowing Cross Country you'll probably beat it

I would say on a longer form of transport too but in fairness most XC services are formed of Double units rn!

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 31 Oct 2020 ==

So continual star jumps on the journey to the Island then! I'm sure that'll go down well with CrossCountry

If you want to do Star jumps on a ferry, may I suggest Hong Kong?

I'll grab my coat...

 

[ABB125]

Maybe you could cycle to the island (minus the ferry) - knowing Cross Country you'll probably beat it

From Birmingham? I don't think so...

If you want to do Star jumps on a ferry, may I suggest Hong Kong?

I'll grab my coat...

You may not!

 

[Class 33]

Well it's been 10 days now since the height of 26,688 cases on 21st October. This is quite a time to have dipped below that number and to have not reached and exceeded that number. It is possible that cases may exceed that number again over the coming days/weeks. But it's certainly looking encouraging so far that it's now 10 days and counting and we still haven't. We have been fooled a few times before where it looks cases are heading down, but those examples were when cases had dipped down for 2, 3, 4 or 5 days and then sadly they go and rise up above that number again and we were fooled. Like for example on 14th October when cases were 19,724 and the proceeding 5 days were 18,980, 15,650, 16,171, 16,982, and 18,804. But then sadly on the 6th day after cases had rose up to 21,331. So that was 5 days the numbers had dipped below. This time so far it's 10 days and counting, which is encouragaing. So let's see what happens over the coming weeks. Got to have some positivity in these very miserable times we're in now.

Current 7 day rolling average of cases - 22,521

7 day rolling average on 24th October - 21,227

7 day rolling average on 17th October - 16,371

7 day rolling average on 10th October - 15,832



I'll leave it at that as to how far I go back. But the last 2 weeks demonstrates that the "surge" in cases has definitely slowed down significantly, and appears to be levelling off. This is encouraging. But the likes of Johnson and the cabinet, Whitty, Valance and numerous scientists/experts aren't telling us this!

 

[johntea]

Is West Yorkshire still destined for Tier 3 from Monday? Seems a bit of a shame they can't just go 'you're buggered from Thursday so you can remain in Tier 2 until then'

 

[jfowkes]

I'll leave it at that as to how far I go back. But the last 2 weeks demonstrates that the "surge" in cases has definitely slowed down significantly

There's nowhere near enough data points there to come to that conclusion.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

Current 7 day rolling average of cases - 22,521

7 day rolling average on 24th October - 21,227

7 day rolling average on 17th October - 16,371

7 day rolling average on 10th October - 15,832

Need to be mindful of positivity rates though

Current 7 day rolling average of cases - 22,521 against daily testing 7 day avg of 321k or positivity rate of 7%

7 day rolling average on 24th October - 21,227 against daily testing 7 day avg of 311k or positivity rate of 6.8%

7 day rolling average on 17th October - 16,371 against daily testing 7 day avg of 295k or positivity rate of 5.5%

7 day rolling average on 10th October - 15,832 against daily testing 7 day avg of 265k or positivity rate of 6%

which shows growth in numbers albeit not exponential and was it not for hospitalisation of elderly again this was all avoidable so how on earth both as individuals and as a society we've allowed this to happen given we knew this is where the risk is beyond me

 

[Trackman]

It wasn't just me then. I must say the viewing the 'next slide please' made riveting listening on radio.

It was actually trending on twitter earlier!

 

[Mike395]

First draft (until Parliament approves it, it's only a draft and is subject to change) of the guidance is live: https://www.gov.uk/guidance/new-national-restrictions-from-5-november

 

[Baxenden Bank]

Need to be mindful of positivity rates though

Current 7 day rolling average of cases - 22,521 against daily testing 7 day avg of 321k or positivity rate of 7%

7 day rolling average on 24th October - 21,227 against daily testing 7 day avg of 311k or positivity rate of 6.8%

7 day rolling average on 17th October - 16,371 against daily testing 7 day avg of 295k or positivity rate of 5.5%

7 day rolling average on 10th October - 15,832 against daily testing 7 day avg of 265k or positivity rate of 6%

which shows growth in numbers albeit not exponential and was it not for hospitalisation of elderly again this was all avoidable so how on earth both as individuals and as a society we've allowed this to happen given we knew this is where the risk is beyond me

It was 'allowed' to happen because the people who know what they are doing, or know what needs doing, are not in a position to influence those who are making the big decisions. Those making the big decisions are floundering allover the place because they have never properly managed anything other than their careers. Look at the past history - water cannon, garden bridge, boris bus etc. Never mind their confused personal lives. They make themselves look good when everything is going well because it just happens regardless of them. When the stuff hits the fan they are exposed as weak and indecisive, lacking in leadership skills and not capable of the joined up strategic thinking essential in a crisis. Hence the constant fiddling with restrictions, their labelling and their introduction over the top of previous restrictions only just introduced and not having had the chance for their impact to be felt and evaluated. Blind panic may not quite be the appropriate term, but Churchilian it certainly isn't, unless you mean the nodding dog, oooohh yesss.

What it needs is one journalist to ask one question. "Prime Minister, how will history remember your tenure at No 10?"

 

[northernchris]

Is West Yorkshire still destined for Tier 3 from Monday? Seems a bit of a shame they can't just go 'you're buggered from Thursday so you can remain in Tier 2 until then'

West Yorkshire Police have confirmed we're not entering Tier 3 on Monday now

Facebook

www.facebook.com

 

[bramling]

It was 'allowed' to happen because the people who know what they are doing, or know what needs doing, are not in a position to influence those who are making the big decisions. Those making the big decisions are floundering allover the place because they have never properly managed anything other than their careers. Look at the past history - water cannon, garden bridge, boris bus etc. Never mind their confused personal lives. They make themselves look good when everything is going well because it just happens regardless of them. When the stuff hits the fan they are exposed as weak and indecisive, lacking in leadership skills and not capable of the joined up strategic thinking essential in a crisis. Hence the constant fiddling with restrictions, their labelling and their introduction over the top of previous restrictions only just introduced and not having had the chance for their impact to be felt and evaluated. Blind panic may not quite be the appropriate term, but Churchilian it certainly isn't, unless you mean the nodding dog, oooohh yesss.

What it needs is one journalist to ask one question. "Prime Minister, how will history remember your tenure at No 10?"

Excellent post. Sums it up absolutely perfectly.

I can’t believe just how much of a clusterf**k this is, in pretty much every respect.

 

[ABB125]

First draft (until Parliament approves it, it's only a draft and is subject to change) of the guidance is live: https://www.gov.uk/guidance/new-national-restrictions-from-5-november

Looks like nonessential travel isn't permitted then. A shame, but not surprising.

 

[35B]

First draft (until Parliament approves it, it's only a draft and is subject to change) of the guidance is live: https://www.gov.uk/guidance/new-national-restrictions-from-5-november

Parliament will decide upon a very different looking document, which I hope will reflect this guidance - not because I agree or disagree with the guidance, but because if the two differ, it will demonstrate that the government is winging it.

 

[yorksrob]

Parliament will decide upon a very different looking document, which I hope will reflect this guidance - not because I agree or disagree with the guidance, but because if the two differ, it will demonstrate that the government is winging it.

They're all clueless. We know that already.

 

[317 forever]

Looks like nonessential travel isn't permitted then. A shame, but not surprising.

What I notice is that it includes the word should not must here.

You should avoid all non-essential travel by private or public transport.

More disappointing is that even this freedom looks restricted to daytrips only but overnight stays look outlawed.

Overnight stays and holidays away from primary residences will not be allowed- including holidays in the UK and abroad.

 

[AY1975]

Looks like nonessential travel isn't permitted then. A shame, but not surprising.

It says you should, not you must, avoid non-essential journeys by public transport. It gives examples of what are classed as essential journeys but says essential travel includes but is not limited to these.

AIUI even under full lockdown you can still meet up with others in your support bubble if you have one, but I suppose in practice you can't meet up with them (or would be strongly discouraged from doing so) if they don't live within walking distance of your home and neither of you has the use of a car or a bike, as travelling to visit the other person or people in your bubble surely wouldn't be classed as an essential journey.

They do say that if you form a bubble with another household it should be someone who lives near to you as possible, but not everyone who lives on their own knows someone within walking distance to whom they feel close enough to want to form a bubble with them, but you might know someone who lives further afield to whom you feel quite close and with whom you'd be happy to form a bubble.

 

[ABB125]

What I notice is that it includes the word should not must here.



More disappointing is that even this freedom looks restricted to daytrips only but overnight stays look outlawed.

It says you should, not you must, avoid non-essential journeys by public transport. It gives examples of what are classed as essential journeys but says essential travel includes but is not limited to these.

AIUI even under full lockdown you can still meet up with others in your support bubble if you have one, but I suppose in practice you can't meet up with them (or would be strongly discouraged from doing so) if they don't live within walking distance of your home and neither of you has the use of a car or a bike, as travelling to visit the other person or people in your bubble surely wouldn't be classed as an essential journey.

They do say that if you form a bubble with another household it should be someone who lives near to you as possible, but not everyone who lives on their own knows someone within walking distance to whom they feel close enough to want to form a bubble with them, but you might know someone who lives further afield to whom you feel quite close and with whom you'd be happy to form a bubble.

I agree it's a bit vague, but I don't particularly want to get into an argument with some jobsworth on the railway! If I do decide to go anywhere I'll wait to see what the mood is nationally.

 

[ChrisC]

First draft (until Parliament approves it, it's only a draft and is subject to change) of the guidance is live: https://www.gov.uk/guidance/new-national-restrictions-from-5-november

Am I right in remembering that during the first lockdown everyone over 70 were considered vulnerable people? This time it appears that everyone who is aged 60 or over (regardless of medical conditions) are considered clinically vulnerable.