Our total reliance on a vaccine and putting life on hold until it's rolled out

[Bantamzen]

Those are the only two options. Having restrictions or not having restrictions is binary.

No they are not the only options, but there's little point debating that with you as you have clearly made up your mind what works best for you.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Or is talk of vaccine a bit of a smokescreen and they just let herd immunity build up in the meantime, but don’t want to say that as certain people have weaponised their term?

I did for a minute wonder if that was what was intended by sending the students back to university. Then they locked them down.

Perhaps it was and they bottled it?

 

[brad465]

If this apparent second wave/peak comes to a peak by the end of this month, there would be plenty of opportunity to call for wide ranging relaxations over the course of November and early December if a downward trend is experienced throughout. The ONS data that came out yesterday suggested a slowing down in infection rates and in England around 1% of the population having the virus at once, but regions with higher infection numbers will have a higher proportion, so there's every chance the virus is running out of new hosts.

Furthermore with half term now getting underway we can make a better assessment of the role schools have played in infections of late.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Furthermore with half term now getting underway we can make a better assessment of the role schools have played in infections of late.

I agree, even within the UK we are going to see what happens if we do a two week full lockdown, a reduced but still harsh lockdown, plus Bozza's 3 levels, with and without schools being in.

That should be enough evidence to find the best level of measures. But we really need to grasp the nettle of modifying education to provide for proper distancing if that is found to be the main vector, as I suspect it might be. There must be enough great minds in the country to find a way to do it without disadvantaging our young people; it's not like our school-age education system is world-beating, it's actually quite poor.

 

[Richard Scott]

That should be enough evidence to find the best level of measures. But we really need to grasp the nettle of modifying education to provide for proper distancing if that is found to be the main vector, as I suspect it might be. There must be enough great minds in the country to find a way to do it without disadvantaging our young people; it's not like our school-age education system is world-beating, it's actually quite poor.

There we go, yet another area you're an authority in; education. Whilst it may not be the best (another area where meddling politicians have caused more issues than solved, is there a theme here?) children are still better being at school than out of it.

 

[RuralRambler]

There we go, yet another area you're an authority in; education. Whilst it may not be the best (another area where meddling politicians have caused more issues than solved, is there a theme here?) children are still better being at school than out of it.

Not if their parents/carers end up dead or long term disabled because of covid!

 

[Richard Scott]

Not if their parents/carers end up dead or long term disabled because of covid!

Somewhat melodramatic as highly unlikely. They've got more chance of their parents/carers being killed or having long term disability due to a car accident than due to the virus. Should we all stop driving then?

 

[Bantamzen]

Not if their parents/carers end up dead or long term disabled because of covid!

Given that the average age of those that sadly die with the virus is 80+, I'd be very surprised if many children lose their parents to this.

 

[Richard Scott]

Given that the average age of those that sadly die with the virus is 80+, I'd be very surprised if many children lose their parents to this.

In actual fact I've heard more the other way around, parents losing their children, not directly to the virus but due to measures causing them to very sadly take their own life.

 

[DustyBin]

Not if their parents/carers end up dead or long term disabled because of covid!

Covid isn’t a death sentence for the vast majority of people young enough to have children in school. There are of course exceptions but the number is too small to justify closing schools, which of course has various knock-on effects.

Can you provide any examples of people who have ended up long term disabled as a result of Covid? I have read about people suffering post-viral fatigue, but the same can result from cold and flu viruses yet nobody seemed to care until now....

 

[brad465]

The Mail on Sunday are reporting on their front page, and also now reported here in the Metro, that frontline NHS are set to receive a vaccine "within weeks":

Frontline NHS staff to receive coronavirus vaccine 'within weeks'

Hospitals are preparing to roll out vaccination programmes in early December.

metro.co.uk

Hospitals are getting ready to vaccinate staff working on the frontline of the coronavirus pandemic, with hopes the jab will be ready ‘within weeks.’

An internal email sent to staff at an NHS Trust said preparations have already begun for a mass roll-out of the vaccine across the health service, the Mail on Sunday reports.

Glen Burley, chief executive of George Eliot Hospital NHS Trust in Warwickshire, wrote: ‘Our Trust, alongside NHS organisations nationally, has been told to be prepared to start a Covid-19 staff vaccine programme in early December.

‘The latest intelligence states a coronavirus vaccine should be available this year with NHS staff prioritised prior to Christmas.’

Giving more detail about the vaccine, Mr Burley said it would be given in two doses, 28 days apart, and only those who have been received a flu jab this year would qualify.

The MoS also reports another NHS Trust chief executive, Diane Wake, has told staff she hopes they will get the vaccine in December.

She told a recent board meeting of the Dudley Group NHS Trust: ‘I’m hoping for a Covid-19 vaccine to be available to healthcare providers some time in December.

It has not been confirmed yet but I’m hoping to be able to offer a Covid-19 vaccine to our staff.’

It’s thought the most likely vaccine that will be used across the NHS is the one being developed by Oxford University and AstraZeneca.

This is currently undergoing the third and final stage of clinical trials and has previously shown to have a ‘robust immune response’ and no serious side-effects.

The Government plans to administer the jab to healthcare workers first and then vulnerable groups including the over 80s.

Around 100 million doses have been bought in anticipation of it being given approval.

We'll have to see if this gets reported more widely and/or is backed up by the Government for better conclusions, but we'd have to hope whatever the success of the vaccine in question they can at least use it as an excuse to end many of the measures fast. If it's not ready in weeks they definitely need questioning about alternative strategies.

 

[Bantamzen]

The Mail on Sunday are reporting on their front page, and also now reported here in the Metro, that frontline NHS are set to receive a vaccine "within weeks":

Frontline NHS staff to receive coronavirus vaccine 'within weeks'

Hospitals are preparing to roll out vaccination programmes in early December.

metro.co.uk

We'll have to see if this gets reported more widely and/or is backed up by the Government for better conclusions, but we'd have to hope whatever the success of the vaccine in question they can at least use it as an excuse to end many of the measures fast. If it's not ready in weeks they definitely need questioning about alternative strategies.

"The latest intelligence?" What kind of half-arsed statement is that? We are either close to a certifiable vaccine or we are not.

 

[takno]

The Mail on Sunday are reporting on their front page, and also now reported here in the Metro, that frontline NHS are set to receive a vaccine "within weeks":

Frontline NHS staff to receive coronavirus vaccine 'within weeks'

Hospitals are preparing to roll out vaccination programmes in early December.

metro.co.uk

We'll have to see if this gets reported more widely and/or is backed up by the Government for better conclusions, but we'd have to hope whatever the success of the vaccine in question they can at least use it as an excuse to end many of the measures fast. If it's not ready in weeks they definitely need questioning about alternative strategies.

From the article it appears that hospital trusts are being asked to prepare to respond quickly in the event that a vaccine does become available. It would be sensible to do that if there was even a 1 in 100 chance of a vaccine being available.

More worrying is that the vaccine is a complex two stage process with a 28 day turnaround time, so even if we do start vaccinating people in December, we won't have done even the critically vulnerable before we're out of the respiratory infection season, and we might not get any real world data on efficacy before next winter.

 

[GRALISTAIR]

"The latest intelligence?" What kind of half-arsed statement is that? We are either close to a certifiable vaccine or we are not.

Possibly trying to give hope? Hope is very powerful.

 

[brad465]

Possibly trying to give hope? Hope is very powerful.

Especially when mass compliance with current restrictions is in decline, they'd need to come up with something to give people reasons to start complying again (although there's no official statement from the Government on this story yet).

 

[HSTEd]

Possibly trying to give hope? Hope is very powerful.

It is very dangerous though, if for whatever reason it doesn't come through, you poison the well.

 

[Domh245]

Given that the average age of those that sadly die with the virus is 80+, I'd be very surprised if many children lose their parents to this.

Taking 20-49 as the age range of parents with children, 1,056 people of that age have died from COVID going by the ONS registrations. All very sad until you realise that a total of 18,446 people in that age range have died since January.

It is very dangerous though, if for whatever reason it doesn't come through, you poison the well.

Case in point "send it packing in 12 weeks", "over by Christmas", etc

 

[Yew]

Taking 20-49 as the age range of parents with children, 1,056 people of that age have died from COVID going by the ONS registrations. All very sad until you realise that a total of 18,446 people in that age range have died since January.



Case in point "send it packing in 12 weeks", "over by Christmas", etc

"Significant normality by November", "Vaccine By september", or (in september) "vaccine in six weeks" (i.e. last week)

 

[DB]

Taking 20-49 as the age range of parents with children, 1,056 people of that age have died from COVID going by the ONS registrations. All very sad until you realise that a total of 18,446 people in that age range have died since January

Died with, remember - not necessarily from.

 

[Huntergreed]

Died with, remember - not necessarily from.

Indeed. I think everyone needs to start accepting (including the media) that the deaths are “from all causes after a positive test within the last 28 days” rather than “From COVID”, there’s a massive difference (and if we did announce the number of purely Covid deaths, there’s no way these restrictions would be justified)

 

[Domh245]

Indeed. I think everyone needs to start accepting (including the media) that the deaths are “from all causes after a positive test within the last 28 days” rather than “From COVID”, there’s a massive difference (and if we did announce the number of purely Covid deaths, there’s no way these restrictions would be justified)

The ONS numbers aren't the "all cause" ones, they're COVID on the certificate either as the underlying cause of death or significant contributory factor, and why I choose to use those and ignore the daily announced ones. Of those, CEBM have calculated that (up to September) 12/13th had it listed as the underlying cause. Worth noting though that the daily announced ones match up quite well to the ONS ones these days.

 

[yorksrob]

The BEEB has a graph on it's daily coronavirus page called Weekly UK Death Registrations whivh I find quite illuminating.

It plots COVID deaths as a proportion of overall death registrations along with non-COVID excess deaths.
:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51768274

 

[Freightmaster]

The BEEB has a graph on it's daily coronavirus page called Weekly UK Death Registrations whivh I find quite illuminating.

It plots COVID deaths as a proportion of overall death registrations along with non-COVID excess deaths.

For maximum scaremongering effect, the graph is titled 'Covid deaths rising' even though it shows no such thing...

 

[Bikeman78]

Taking 20-49 as the age range of parents with children, 1,056 people of that age have died from COVID going by the ONS registrations. All very sad until you realise that a total of 18,446 people in that age range have died since January.

That's a sobering statistic. What did the other 17,000 die of? A few hundred will be road accidents.

 

[158756]

It is very dangerous though, if for whatever reason it doesn't come through, you poison the well.

I think that's already happened, and is a large part of why people aren't complying with the latest measures. In March people hoped we'd have lockdown, flatten the curve, open the Nightingale hospitals, buy ventilators and then things would improve, what happened to that? Normality by November? Vaccine by September some claimed, now "within weeks" or before Christmas or whatever, no doubt soon to be pushed back again. Does anyone expect the circuit break/firebreak lockdowns to end after two weeks?

 

[Huntergreed]

I think that's already happened, and is a large part of why people aren't complying with the latest measures. In March people hoped we'd have lockdown, flatten the curve, open the Nightingale hospitals, buy ventilators and then things would improve, what happened to that? Normality by November? Vaccine by September some claimed, now "within weeks" or before Christmas or whatever, no doubt soon to be pushed back again. Does anyone expect the circuit break/firebreak lockdowns to end after two weeks?

Exactly, but that’s what happens when you apply political solutions to a biological problem. There’s no such thing as absolute safety (although most people don’t see that, it seems) and a certain level of risk must be accepted.

What I find utterly disgusting is how they are telling young people to “stay safe” due to the risks of “long COVID”, but when a vaccine is rolled out those under 50 are going to be free to catch the virus anyway. (By “disgusting” I mean they way they’re overstating the risk to scare them into compliance, when their plans for a vaccine show they believe the risk is low enough, which I do agree with). If many people under 50 knew that, I’m convinced they wouldn’t listen at all.

 

[brad465]

There's a good article here (good in the sense the issue has been raised), highlighting the troubles 'generation covid' are having as a result of our whole response:

'Generation Covid' hit hard by the pandemic, research reveals

People aged 16-25 were more than twice as likely as older workers to have lost their job

www.bbc.co.uk

Young people, particularly those from deprived backgrounds, have had their earnings and job prospects hit hardest by the coronavirus pandemic, adding to fears for the long-term impact on their futures.

BBC Panorama found people aged 16-25 were more than twice as likely as older workers to have lost their job, while six in 10 saw their earnings fall, according to new research.

It also highlighted the impact of school closures on young people and added to growing evidence that students from poorer backgrounds have fallen behind their more privileged peers.

A quarter of pupils - some 2.5 million children - had no schooling or tutoring during lockdown, the survey by the London School of Economics (LSE) suggests.

But, the study adds, nearly three quarters of private school pupils had full days of teaching (74%) - almost twice the proportion of state school pupils (38%).

The study's authors warn it could lead to poorer pupils suffering "permanent 'educational scarring'" when it comes to key academic milestones such as exams and securing a university place.

 

[kristiang85]

For maximum scaremongering effect, the graph is titled 'Covid deaths rising' even though it shows no such thing...

The BBC only shows 2020 deaths though. To add context to this, here's a graph of all cause deaths in the UK per 100k by 12 months up to week 37, split by year.

You will notice 2019 was a very unusually low year for deaths, and if you add it to 2020, it averages out to just above 2018 (934.5 as opposed to 931). This supports the so-called 'dry tinder' effect, in that there were a lot more vulnerable people who were susceptible to COVID.

You will notice also that the same thing happened, for example, in 2014 and 2015, with 2014 quite low and 2015 quite high, but both average out to 2013.

 

[philosopher]

According to the BBC, the US Trump government has said that the the US cannot control the Covid-19 and that vaccines or treatments are the only way to defeat Covid-19:

Covid: Trump's chief of staff admits US cannot control pandemic

Democrat Joe Biden says comments by Mr Trump's chief of staff show the White House has admitted defeat.

www.bbc.co.uk

A senior aide to President Donald Trump has conceded that the US is "not going to control the pandemic".
Instead White House Chief of Staff Mark Meadows said Covid-19 could only be defeated by "mitigation areas" like vaccines and therapeutics.
His remarks come as coronavirus cases surge in the US, nine days before the presidential election.
Democratic presidential challenger Joe Biden said the White House was waving "the white flag of defeat".
He added that Mr Meadows' comments showed that the Trump administration had "given up on their basic duty to protect the American people".
In an interview with CNN, Mr Meadows said control of the virus was not a realistic goal because "it is a contagious virus just like the flu".

I think this echoes what many have said on here that the virus cannot be controlled.

 

[DB]

I think this echoes what many have said on here that the virus cannot be controlled.

It's a strange world where Donald Trump is saying something sensible!