Covid : Infection rates v death rates and a possible second wave

[Tetchytyke]

I wasn't, to be fair, referring to the scientific community, but to Public Health civil servants, who have "secret squirreled" throughout.

Have they? A lot of the information has been published and is available, the question is whether you believe it or not. Professor Ferguson's papers as an example from one side. And, from the other side, Professor Karol Sikora and their extensive links to right-wing lobby groups*.

Interestingly a lot of people who think Covid is nonsense rely on the work of Professors Sikora and Leneghan.

The issue is that the virus is very new and so there is no certainty. My wife works with epidemiologists in her work and they do think this virus is the real deal. But nobody really knows how much yet. Of course they don't. Think how long it took them to realise HPV causes cancer.

*source: https://bylinetimes.com/2020/09/23/...ying-groups-reviving-herd-immunity-in-the-uk/

As an oncologist, Professor Karol Sikora lacks field-specific expertise in understanding COVID-19. This might be alleviated if he had published some relevant original research in the scientific literature. Unfortunately, he hasn’t.

But he does have an illustrious record of lobbying on behalf of the Conservative Party. For instance, he founded the Doctors for Reform group – a free-market pressure group which was accused in 2004 of being “supported by the Conservative Party”, according to the British Medical Journal.

In 2009, he was paid to appear in US adverts for the Republican Party created by a lobby group, Conservatives for Patient Rights, which attacked the NHS and President Barack Obama’s healthcare reforms. That year, he was caught out lying to Parliament’s Health Select Committee by claiming, falsely, that he was a professor at Imperial College for 22 years.

In 2014, he called for elderly cancer patients to be denied expensive drugs in favour of younger patients. Two years later, he turned up on the editorial board for an anti-NHS report commissioned by Conservative MP and former Environment Minister Owen Paterson, authored by Kristian Niemietz of the right-wing libertarian Institute of Economic Affairs (IEA), part of the Tufton Street network of lobbyists receiving vast amounts of ‘dark money’ from US special interests linked to Trump. He also conveniently failed to declare his personal conflicts of interests in the privatisation of cancer care in relation to this report.

He went on by taking to BBC News to describe the NHS as “the last bastion of communism”. Naturally, he saw no need to mention any of this in his letter to the Government.

 

[yorksrob]

Have they? A lot of the information has been published and is available, the question is whether you believe it or not. Professor Ferguson's papers as an example from one side. And, from the other side, Professor Karol Sikora and their extensive links to right-wing lobby groups*.

Interestingly a lot of people who think Covid is nonsense rely on the work of Professors Sikora and Leneghan.

The issue is that the virus is very new and so there is no certainty. My wife works with epidemiologists in her work and they do think this virus is the real deal. But nobody really knows how much yet. Of course they don't. Think how long it took them to realise HPV causes cancer.

*source: https://bylinetimes.com/2020/09/23/...ying-groups-reviving-herd-immunity-in-the-uk/

This isn't a debate between people who "think COVID is nonsense" and those who don't, it's a debate between those who think it justifies the shut down of social and economic activity as we know it, and those who think we need to take more limited precautions according to individual risk.

 

[Bantamzen]

This isn't a debate between people who "think COVID is nonsense" and those who don't, it's a debate between those who think it justifies the shut down of social and economic activity as we know it, and those who think we need to take more limited precautions according to individual risk.

Where's that damn 'Like' button when you need it? I'm sick of the polarization of the debate, just because some of us question the measures does not make us believe that covid is somehow fake. I know people who have had it, even onw friend die with it.

 

[43066]

Interestingly a lot of people who think Covid is nonsense rely on the work of Professors Sikora and Leneghan.

That looks like the standard attempt to shut down discussion by lumping perfectly sensible criticism of the current approach in with lunatic conspiracy theorists.

Nobody (on here at least) is arguing that “Covid is nonsense“, just that the threat it poses isn’t anywhere near serious enough to justify the current measures. It certainly isn’t any way comparable to Ebola, as you seem you want people to believe...

 

[ainsworth74]

Those ars shocking numbers, but we carry on driving as - arguably - the benefits outweigh the risks. Keeps us moving, keeps the economy moving. But by Covid logic, protect the NHS and all that, shouldn't vehicle traffic be put under lockdown until a safe way to travel is discovered??

The NHS, however, is funded and prepared to cope with the level of strain put upon it by road traffic accidents however.

 

[ChrisC]

As a young person who almost freakishly developed pneumonia following a random chest/throat infection I caught whilst on holiday, I can confirm that it takes a while to recover fully. I’m very fit but it was a couple of months at least until I felt fully recovered and could train as normal. The point I’m making is that Covid-19 isn’t unique in having the potential to cause ‘long’ symptoms, but as we’ve seen with outlying younger victims, anything that makes it sound scary/dangerous will be seized upon....

When I was aged about 25, nearly 40 years ago now, I had the flu really badly one January. I was in bed for well over a week and had to have 2 weeks off work. It left me feeling very weak and for a good few weeks afterwards all I wanted to do is sleep when I got home from work. I remember that it was not until about June before I began to feel 100% well again. I’m not normally someone who has any health problems and during the following 35 years I had very days off work through illness.

I don’t think we know enough yet about the after effects of Covid but from what I have read about the very small number of people who are suffering from ‘Long Covid’ and it does sound quite serious. It does appear that it’s younger people who are getting this, and we just have to hope that it’s only lasting for a few months, and that no long term damage has been done to their body.

 

[Howardh]

When I was aged about 25, nearly 40 years ago now, I had the flu really badly one January. I was in bed for well over a week and had to have 2 weeks off work. It left me feeling very weak and for a good few weeks afterwards all I wanted to do is sleep when I got home from work. I remember that it was not until about June before I began to feel 100% well again. I’m not normally someone who has any health problems and during the following 35 years I had very days off work through illness.

I don’t think we know enough yet about the after effects of Covid but from what I have read about the very small number of people who are suffering from ‘Long Covid’ and it does sound quite serious. It does appear that it’s younger people who are getting this, and we just have to hope that it’s only lasting for a few months, and that no long term damage has been done to their body.

These after-effects do seem to be hit-and-miss, and might be down to underlying conditions. Example, a mate of mine was on a ventilator in April, and his family told to expect the worst, but happily he came through. He doesn't feel any ill-effects and has been playing 5-a-side football since, and he's late middle-aged. As far as I know he's never smoked and has no history of lung disease - used to be a professional footballer and has kept himself pretty fit since.
Purely anecdotal of course, I'm no expert and have no access to any medical papers but maybe the after-effects are a lot to do whith what state you are in beforehand? Think all this will come out in the wash when it's all over and we have enquiries.

 

[NorthOxonian]

Where's that damn 'Like' button when you need it? I'm sick of the polarization of the debate, just because some of us question the measures does not make us believe that covid is somehow fake. I know people who have had it, even onw friend die with it.

Agreed - unfortunately I lost family to it (she was in a care home). It isn't that I think that the virus isn't a danger - it absolutely is. I just think that the restrictions are even worse. And I think the current approach - locking up those least in danger while refusing to countenance doing that to the vulnerable - is just ridiculous.

But I will say the siren song of conspiracy theories does seem to be tempting too many people. It seems like more and more (on other sites) you see people arguing that the virus is a hoax, or that Bill Gates is somehow to blame for everything. I don't agree with the government's approach, but I don't think they're deliberately trying to inflict suffering on us, I just think they're underestimating the damage of lockdown (particularly to those younger and/or less middle class than those in power).

 

[bramling]

This is plainly nonsense as a far higher % (100% of Ebola victims) are required to attend hospital. Good grief when Ebola breaks out there are men in space suits parachuted in to contain it. Comparing it to Covid is facile in the extreme.



I can’t believe people are still persisting with this kind of scaremongering.

It *mostly* kills unhealthy OAPs and (far fewer) younger people with severe underlying conditions. The average age of a death “with Covid” is in the low 80s, and many of the victims will be severely ill and only have a limited lifespan left.

For those healthy and under 45 you’re statistically more at risk from a car crash. A few younger healthy people have died, but what people seem to forget is that these are statistical outliers (just as some young people die of flu and other conditions).

Long covid is less well understood, but it’s clear that this also only occurs in a small minority of cases.



Indeed. Utterly nonsensical scaremongering of this type has terrified many gullible people in this country, and made it politically difficult for the government to do the sensible thing and pivot to an approach with is more proportionate to the threat facing most of us.

Long Covid is hardly being mentioned now. Given the media’s love to report doom, if it were any more than a tiny handful of outlying cases then we’d have heard a lot more about it by now.

Having said that, we shouldn’t of course be relying on the media. Has anyone ever heard the likes of Whitty talk about it?

 

[Tetchytyke]

it's a debate between those who think it justifies the shut down of social and economic activity as we know it, and those who think we need to take more limited precautions according to individual risk.

But that is the debate about how "bad" Covid is, and how badly it affects different parts of the community. An horrific illness that affects everyone requires more restrictions than an illness that isn't so severe and doesn't affect as many people.

To use extremes, a worldwide Ebola pandemic would require stricter controls than a worldwide common cold pandemic.

just because some of us question the measures does not make us believe that covid is somehow fake

Nobody has said you think it is fake. But it is fair, is it not, to say that you do not believe Covid is serious enough to require the controls that are in place.

That looks like the standard attempt to shut down discussion by lumping perfectly sensible criticism of the current approach in with lunatic conspiracy theorists.

Then you are mistaken.

There is a reason why I specifically referenced the work of Professors Ferguson and Sikora.

 

[Yew]

https://bylinetimes.com/2020/09/23/...ying-groups-reviving-herd-immunity-in-the-uk/

That hardly seems like a reputable, unbiased source.

 

[Tetchytyke]

I don't know if Covid is serious or not, but when every country in the world is dealing with it in a similar way it becomes harder to argue that restrictions are an overreaction. You might normally expect some governments to overreact, but for pretty much everyone to apply similar restrictions indicates a body of evidence to show it IS serious.

And that's the point: it isn't just Boris Johnson who's running around flapping. The US has outright banned people from the UK from entering the country. France and Spain have similar lockdowns to the UK. Australia has close borders between individual states.

I don't think they're deliberately trying to inflict suffering on us, I just think they're underestimating the damage of lockdown (particularly to those younger and/or less middle class than those in power).

I think that is a fair criticism, but I think that opinion, in turn, underestimates the economic impact of letting the virus run unchecked. The economic choice isn't normality vs lockdown.

 

[Yew]

I don't know if Covid is serious or not, but when every country in the world is dealing with it in a similar way it becomes harder to argue that restrictions are an overreaction. You might normally expect some governments to overreact, but for pretty much everyone to apply similar restrictions indicates a body of evidence to show it IS serious.

Whether everyone else is doing it is irrelevant, what matters is that we do the right thing for us.

 

[NorthOxonian]

I think that is a fair criticism, but I think that opinion, in turn, underestimates the economic impact of letting the virus run unchecked. The economic choice isn't normality vs lockdown.

I think arguments that focus mainly on economics are a bit of a red herring. Either way, there is going to be a severe economic downturn due to this - even Sweden saw one. As far as I'm concerned, the main reasons I oppose restrictions are based on the impact on society (particularly the arts and culture) and mental health (depression rates have doubled, a third of young people show signs of it, that sort of thing).

 

[Tetchytyke]

As far as I'm concerned, the main reasons I oppose restrictions are based on the impact on society (particularly the arts and culture) and mental health (depression rates have doubled, a third of young people show signs of it, that sort of thing).

I would agree about the impacts. Where I live we have normality, but only within a bubble. We don't have some of the issues- we can socialise freely- but we also find it hard to see family off-island. It isn't nice at all.

But equally people in their 20s will have parents in their 50s and 60s, which is the cusp of the big risk for Covid. And whilst lockdown is distressing for some people, the hospitalization of a parent is more distressing for others.

As I've said before, I don't like the restrictions either, but then I also don't like Covid. I'm just glad I'm not making the decisions.

 

[philosopher]

I don't know if Covid is serious or not, but when every country in the world is dealing with it in a similar way it becomes harder to argue that restrictions are an overreaction. You might normally expect some governments to overreact, but for pretty much everyone to apply similar restrictions indicates a body of evidence to show it IS serious.

And that's the point: it isn't just Boris Johnson who's running around flapping. The US has outright banned people from the UK from entering the country. France and Spain have similar lockdowns to the UK. Australia has close borders between individual states.



I think that is a fair criticism, but I think that opinion, in turn, underestimates the economic impact of letting the virus run unchecked. The economic choice isn't normality vs lockdown.

I think it also has to be asked whether the restrictions actually work. If people ignore the restrictions and continue to socialise anyway then they are probably only going to have limited effectiveness. The fact that we, like many other European countries are in a second wave suggests to me that measures that were in place over the summer did not work.

 

[Richard Scott]

Whether everyone else is doing it is irrelevant, what matters is that we do the right thing for us.

Exactly, otherwise it's just like the child response of "well everyone else is doing it".

 

[jtuk]

I don't know if Covid is serious or not, but when every country in the world is dealing with it in a similar way it becomes harder to argue that restrictions are an overreaction.

They may not have been an overreaction six months ago, but any restrictions whatsoever now are clearly an overreaction, and can only be justified in the exact combination of:

a) Your health service is that poor that there is a real danger that Covid will overrun it (maybe in other countries, yes, but it turns out that was never a risk in the UK)
b) There is a real danger that a) can happen right now having factored in the now known levels of pre-existing immunity, the now known levels of prior infections, and the now known distribution of vulnerability to Covid which is very biased towards the elderly and obese (of which there is zero risk now in the UK)
c) The benefits to those that would be saved from any restrictions outweigh the multiple negative consequences of said restrictions

WHO themselves have indicated that 750 million people worldwide have had Covid, which is 10% of everyone. 1 million have died. That's right in the range of most non-trivial seasonal respiratory illnesses, for which we have never indulged in this sort of madness ever. Just because everyone is doing something doesn't mean it's in any way a sensible or correct course of action.

 

[adc82140]

There was always going to be a so called second wave in the autumn. (so called as this is actually part of the first wave still). All respiratory diseases have a surge at this time of year. Why should this be any different. Viral pneumonia of a non Covid nature kills on average 85 people a day in the UK.

 

[Tetchytyke]

The fact that we, like many other European countries are in a second wave suggests to me that measures that were in place over the summer did not work.

An uptick in numbers was inevitable when restrictions eased, lockdown suppresses spread. I think the mistake was loosening off too quickly, for two reasons. 1, it allowed numbers to go out of control and, 2, once people have had full freedom it is hugely destructive emotionally to return to lockdown.

 

[bramling]

Exactly, otherwise it's just like the child response of "well everyone else is doing it".

Yes and there’s the other issue of “we’ve been doing it for 8 months and spent hundreds of billions on it”, which makes it very politically difficult to retreat, as opposed to throwing more of the same at it.

 

[ChrisC]

I would agree about the impacts. Where I live we have normality, but only within a bubble. We don't have some of the issues- we can socialise freely- but we also find it hard to see family off-island. It isn't nice at all.

But equally people in their 20s will have parents in their 50s and 60s, which is the cusp of the big risk for Covid. And whilst lockdown is distressing for some people, the hospitalization of a parent is more distressing for others.

As I've said before, I don't like the restrictions either, but then I also don't like Covid. I'm just glad I'm not making the decisions.

The fact that people in their 50s and 60s are on the cusp of the big risk for Covid has been a difficult fact for many to come to terms with. As you say, people in their 20s will have parents that age who until now have not ever been considered as either old or at risk. I know I’ve found it difficult to come to terms with, and even though I’m only in my early 60s, for the first time it’s made me realise that I am getting older and more at risk from illness.

As a 63 year old male, very active and in good health but just slightly overweight, it’s been difficult to accept that I have to be careful during this pandemic. I have not completely locked myself away and stayed in like some who have been terrified by this virus, but I feel that I am being sensibly careful. I am staying away from crowded places and only using public transport at quiet times. I am beginning to take holidays again but staying in and walking in quieter country areas and using my car rather than using public transport or staying in busy cities.

It’s been relatively easy for me, living in a rural area, with miles of footpaths through open countryside and woodland to walk through. I’m not sure that I would have found it so easy if I lived in a flat with no garden in an inner city location.

 

[Tetchytyke]

any restrictions whatsoever now are clearly an overreaction,

If it is so clearly an overreaction then why are all countries following similar paths? Genuine question. You'd expect to see more countries deviating from the path but, as it is, Sweden is the only example (and they aren't actually very different).

Even the US, run by a professed Covid-sceptic, has closed their borders to most foreign nationals, including the UK and the whole of the Schengen area.

 

[43066]

The fact that people in their 50s and 60s are on the cusp of the big risk for Covid has been a difficult fact for many to come to terms with. As you say, people in their 20s will have parents that age who until now have not ever been considered as either old or at risk. I know I’ve found it difficult to come to terms with, and even though I’m only in my early 60s, for the first time it’s made me realise that I am getting older and more at risk from illness.

As a 63 year old male, very active and in good health but just slightly overweight, it’s been difficult to accept that I have to be careful during this pandemic. I have not completely locked myself away and stayed in like some who have been terrified by this virus, but I feel that I am being sensibly careful. I am staying away from crowded places and only using public transport at quiet times. I am beginning to take holidays again but staying in and walking in quieter country areas and using my car rather than using public transport or staying in busy cities.

It’s been relatively easy for me, living in a rural area, with miles of footpaths through open countryside and woodland to walk through. I’m not sure that I would have found it so easy if I lived in a flat with no garden in an inner city location.

Even in that age group you’re still not exactly “high risk” (absent other underlying conditions). Even someone contracting in their 80s only has a 10% chance of mortality, but they have that every year anyway by virtue of their age.

 

[adc82140]

Even in that age group you’re still not exactly “high risk” (absent other underlying conditions). Even someone contracting in their 80s only has a 10% chance of mortality, but they have that every year anyway by virtue of their age.

Statistically someone in their early 80s has a 10% change of mortality from anything in the next year, covid or no covid.

 

[Tetchytyke]

Yes and there’s the other issue of “we’ve been doing it for 8 months and spent hundreds of billions on it”, which makes it very politically difficult to retreat, as opposed to throwing more of the same at it.

I disagree, "lockdown worked, I'm amazing, I beat Covid" is a wonderful message for any politician to deliver. The incentive is to downplay Covid, not build it up.

 

[ChrisC]

Even in that age group you’re still not exactly “high risk” (absent other underlying conditions). Even someone contracting in their 80s only has a 10% chance of mortality, but they have that every year anyway by virtue of their age.

I completely agree with you. It was what was daily being presented in the news and by the government, which some would call scare tactics, which was difficult to come to terms with. At one point they were even considering shielding all those over the age of 50. I had never considered myself old and certainly didn’t want to be shut away whist the young continued life as normal. It did have an effect on me and took away some of my usual confidence. I can understand why some of those who did have to shield have found it so difficult to get back to some sort of normality.

 

[43066]

I disagree, "lockdown worked, I'm amazing, I beat Covid" is a wonderful message for any politician to deliver. The incentive is to downplay Covid, not build it up.

I’d say exactly the opposite. Self evidently the hugely damaging measures taken so far have not “beaten Covid” but have (absent a vaccine) merely delayed the inevitable. Rowing back on any of them now would be a tacit admission that the approach taken so far has not really worked.

The incentive is to double down, ham up the fear, and pray for an effective vaccine in short order. If they get that in the autumn/early spring, there’s still a few years of the Parliament left for the government to spin their way out of taking the blame for the huge numbers of premature cancer deaths (and other causes) and catastrophic economic damage they have wrought on the country.

 

[Bantamzen]

Nobody has said you think it is fake. But it is fair, is it not, to say that you do not believe Covid is serious enough to require the controls that are in place.

It is fair, I seriously believe that not only do the measures outstrip the seriousness of the virus, but that they may actually be doing more harm than good. Its already been mentioned that as many as a million breast screening appointments have been missed this year, but now leading surgeons in this country are fearing the worst with an ever growing backlogs of operations.

Covid could cause 'tsunami of cancelled NHS operations'

NHS surgeons say hospital beds must be kept open for "usual business", not just Covid-19.

www.bbc.co.uk

There could be a "tsunami" of cancelled operations this winter as the NHS copes with rising numbers of coronavirus patients, leading surgeons are warning.

Members of the Royal College of Surgeons of England say they doubt the NHS can meet targets to restore surgery back to near pre-pandemic levels.

Planned procedures such as hip replacements were paused to free up beds during lockdown in the spring.

And hospitals have since been dealing with a backlog.

In July, NHS England boss Sir Simon Stevens told trusts hospitals should by September 2020 be performing at least 80% of their September 2019 rates of:

• overnight planned procedures
• outpatient or day-case procedures

And by October, this proportion should rise to 90%.

But data suggests more than two million people have been waiting longer than 18 weeks for routine operations, with 83,000 waiting more than a year - up from 2,000 before the pandemic.

And of course this does not account for all the people unable / unwilling to access the health service in the first place due to fear of the virus. Its a disaster in waiting. Even my better half has found out how much harder it is to access NHS services as a result Covid-Mania.

I don't know if Covid is serious or not, but when every country in the world is dealing with it in a similar way it becomes harder to argue that restrictions are an overreaction. You might normally expect some governments to overreact, but for pretty much everyone to apply similar restrictions indicates a body of evidence to show it IS serious.

And that's the point: it isn't just Boris Johnson who's running around flapping. The US has outright banned people from the UK from entering the country. France and Spain have similar lockdowns to the UK. Australia has close borders between individual states.

And just how is most of the world getting on, they've either thrown up the barricades and dived behind their sofas, or found that despite all the restrictions they've put in place, the virus refuses to acknowledge them and carries on spreading. Because this is what viruses do, and they are quite good at it having had millions of years of practice...

 

[Tetchytyke]

Self evidently the hugely damaging measures taken so far have not “beaten Covid” but have (absent a vaccine) merely delayed the inevitable.

You have said that you believe the effects of Covid are overstated, and that "cases" of Covid are overstated.

If this is true, it is very easy to say that Covid has been beaten.