Government is totally inconsistent on Covid.

[DustyBin]

One of the (many!) things really annoying me of late is the inconsistent use of 'from' and 'with' when quoting the number of Covid-19 related deaths. Have 42k people in the UK died from Covid-19 or with it? Am I alone in thinking it's rather important to make that distinction? The two terms seem to be used interchangeably, when infact they carry a very different meaning....

 

[adc82140]

One of the (many!) things really annoying me of late is the inconsistent use of 'from' and 'with' when quoting the number of Covid-19 related deaths. Have 42k people in the UK died from Covid-19 or with it? Am I alone in thinking it's rather important to make that distinction? The two terms seem to be used interchangeably, when infact they carry a very different meaning....

Add to that the interchangeability of "infections" and "cases". Cases=requiring medical intervention, which then feeds in to the case fatality rate. You then get a high figure for that (10% is one I've seen bandied about) which scares the public, who confuse it with the infection fatality rate.

 

[greyman42]

At least the SNP are taking action against Margaret Ferrier which is what the Tories failed to do in the case of Dominic Cummings.

They did not have much choice after all the fuss they made about Cummings. Glass houses and stones.

 

[eoff]

Time to say goodbye, methinks.

What on earth was she thinking?

Suspened and not expelled, not that I can find any SNP disciplinary rules online to see what level of offence might prompt such action.

 

[takno]

Suspened and not expelled, not that I can find any SNP disciplinary rules online to see what level of offence might prompt such action.

There's a process to follow before she can be expelled from the party, and in all probability they'll expect her to resign from the party before they have a chance to expel her anyway. They suspended the whip and, made it clear that they aren't about to forgive her by saying that they think she should resign the seat. There really isn't anything more they can do

 

[Skimpot flyer]

Somebody asked me at work if by-elections are verboten under the current emergency measures. I couldn’t answer, although obviously the election for London Mayor due back in May was not carried out.
If this woman resigned as an MP, any election ban would leave her constituents without representation.

 

[talldave]

If this woman resigned as an MP, any election ban would leave her constituents without representation.

Somewhat academic since democracy was given the boot.

 

[Bantamzen]

Well apparently BoJo is now literally blaming everyone else but himself for the rise in positive results (I refuse to now call them cases if we do not know if they are symptomatic or not):

Covid-19: Boris Johnson says everybody got 'complacent' over virus

Boris Johnson says there was a "fraying of people's discipline and attention to" Covid rules over the summer.

www.bbc.co.uk

PM Boris Johnson has suggested the recent spike in coronavirus cases in the UK is a result of a "fraying of people's discipline" over the summer.

He said compliance with the virus restrictions had been "high at first" but then "probably... everybody got a bit, kind of complacent and blasé".

Cases have increased sharply across the UK since the end of August.

After starting to relax restrictions before the summer, the government has since had to toughen its measures.

It comes as the latest UK figures show there have been a further 6,968 cases and another 66 deaths.

The R number - a measure of how many other people each person with the virus is infecting - has risen to between 1.3 and 1.6.

However, there is more evidence that new coronavirus infections may be increasing more slowly than in previous weeks.

 

[bramling]

Well apparently BoJo is now literally blaming everyone else but himself for the rise in positive results (I refuse to now call them cases if we do not know if they are symptomatic or not):

Covid-19: Boris Johnson says everybody got 'complacent' over virus

Boris Johnson says there was a "fraying of people's discipline and attention to" Covid rules over the summer.

www.bbc.co.uk

Yes we’ve gone from care home management to young people, and now it’s just the fault of everyone (except Boris it seems).

He’s disgraceful.

When one hears Stanley Johnson in action it’s easy to see where the attitude has come from.

I see BJ got torn apart by a Scottish journalist yesterday. His performance was a total car-crash.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Well apparently BoJo is now literally blaming everyone else but himself for the rise in positive results (I refuse to now call them cases if we do not know if they are symptomatic or not)

I believe "case" means "symptomatic case" by definition. Hence we have the CFR (Case Fatality Rate, i.e. the number of people who showed symptoms who died) and IFR (Infection Fatality Rate, i.e. the number of people who were infected who died).

I do wish they'd not be so lazy and use the correct terms.

"Identified infections" would probably be the best term to use on what is presently called the "case" graph.

 

[Yew]

"Identified infections" would probably be the best term to use on what is presently called the "case" graph.

I'd prefer "fragments of virus that may or may not be infectious, as we use too high of a cycle threshold to make any reasonable interpretation from our results"

 

[Bantamzen]

I believe "case" means "symptomatic case" by definition. Hence we have the CFR (Case Fatality Rate, i.e. the number of people who showed symptoms who died) and IFR (Infection Fatality Rate, i.e. the number of people who were infected who died).

I do wish they'd not be so lazy and use the correct terms.

"Identified infections" would probably be the best term to use on what is presently called the "case" graph.

I've long been of the opinion that there needs to be a review of how the data is used & reported. Clearly the current "cases" data is misleading, because as you say it includes all positive tests but also all people not getting ill and needing healthcare. We (as in the general public) need to better understand the impact on the NHS, not just how many people might be feeling off the weather.

 

[Bletchleyite]

I'd prefer "fragments of virus that may or may not be infectious, as we use too high of a cycle threshold to make any reasonable interpretation from our results"

Well, it does seem to have been found that 90% of the infections in one particular student hall (where they have tested everyone, so they know where 100% of the infections are) are asymptomatic. I think that has to be a useful fact to lead research.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 3 Oct 2020 ==

I've long been of the opinion that there needs to be a review of how the data is used & reported. Clearly the current "cases" data is misleading, because as you say it includes all positive tests but also all people not getting ill and needing healthcare. We (as in the general public) need to better understand the impact on the NHS, not just how many people might be feeling off the weather.

To be fair that data already exists to some extent - hospital admissions. Though some of these won't be "hospital admissions for COVID", they'll be people who tested positive when admitted for something else.

A more useful figure would be "hospital admissions for COVID", i.e. where the complaint causing the admission directly relates to the disease, not someone going in with a broken leg who just happens to have it when tested.

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

At least the SNP are taking action against Margaret Ferrier which is what the Tories failed to do in the case of Dominic Cummings.

Margaret Ferrier is an MP and there are limits to what you can do to an elected member of whatever party.
Cummings is just a civil service employee or contractor who can be fired by his boss, whoever that is (maybe not Boris).

 

[brad465]

Cummings is just a civil service employee or contractor who can be fired by his boss, whoever that is (maybe not Boris).

How has far too much power for the unelected position he holds (as I'm sure many already know).


An analogy to describe the public's attitude to the restrictions would be to liken it to tectonic plates: as two plates interact, stress builds up in the crust until eventually they can't contain it anymore, releasing the energy as an earthquake. In the case of the public, the longer these restrictions go on, the more confusing they are and the more rule breaches there are by representatives in and around Government, then frustration, stress, etc. builds up and eventually will be released. Whether that be in mass ignorance of rules, civil unrest and/or rioting though is the question.

 

[adc82140]

I believe "case" means "symptomatic case" by definition. Hence we have the CFR (Case Fatality Rate, i.e. the number of people who showed symptoms who died) and IFR (Infection Fatality Rate, i.e. the number of people who were infected who died).

I do wish they'd not be so lazy and use the correct terms.

"Identified infections" would probably be the best term to use on what is presently called the "case" graph.

I was led to believe that it became a "case" only when some sort of medical intervention was required.

 

[jtuk]

One of the (many!) things really annoying me of late is the inconsistent use of 'from' and 'with' when quoting the number of Covid-19 related deaths. Have 42k people in the UK died from Covid-19 or with it? Am I alone in thinking it's rather important to make that distinction? The two terms seem to be used interchangeably, when infact they carry a very different meaning....

It's not important if you look at this. Let's assume for one second that they're one and the same. Remember a few days ago the media was going all "1 million Covid deaths", well here's something:

Covid-19: World in ‘for a hell of a ride’ in coming months, Dr Mike Ryan says

WHO official estimates that 750m people globally have likely had coronavirus to date

www.irishtimes.com

An estimated 750 million, or 10 per cent of the world’s population, have been infected by Covid-19, World Health Organisation (WHO) official Dr Mike Ryan has said

Now given this is the WHO, that 750 million could quite easily have meant to be 75 million, 750, or 43697, dependent on who's been lobbying them this week, but 1 million out of 750 million is, er, 0.13%. Even if Covid claims all one million, that's a strike rate that is not in the slightest bit concerning. We don't need to revise it down on a case by case "well those 60 tabs a day he smoked for 50 years might have been a bit of a cause" basis

 

[DB]

A more useful figure would be "hospital admissions for COVID", i.e. where the complaint causing the admission directly relates to the disease, not someone going in with a broken leg who just happens to have it when tested.

Yes, I agree - that and deaths where it was a significant factor are the most meaningful measures.

 

[adc82140]

We eventually got the deaths figure changed to within 28 days of a test which is a start. Now it's time, as @Bletchleyite said, for a deaths figure where Covid is listed as the primary cause.

Also we need a hospital admissions and ventilated patients figure where Covid is the primary cause. There was a story in the news a while ago about a former Indian president being on a ventilator because of Covid, whereas in fact his inoperable brain tumour was the actual cause, with Covid being an also-ran.

And finally when they produce an infection figure, we need to know how many are asymptomatic.

 

[david1212]

Well apparently BoJo is now literally blaming everyone else but himself for the rise in positive results (I refuse to now call them cases if we do not know if they are symptomatic or not):

Covid-19: Boris Johnson says everybody got 'complacent' over virus

Boris Johnson says there was a "fraying of people's discipline and attention to" Covid rules over the summer.

www.bbc.co.uk

PM Boris Johnson has suggested the recent spike in coronavirus cases in the UK is a result of a "fraying of people's discipline" over the summer.

He said compliance with the virus restrictions had been "high at first" but then "probably... everybody got a bit, kind of complacent and blasé".

Cases have increased sharply across the UK since the end of August.

After starting to relax restrictions before the summer, the government has since had to toughen its measures.

It comes as the latest UK figures show there have been a further 6,968 cases and another 66 deaths.

The R number - a measure of how many other people each person with the virus is infecting - has risen to between 1.3 and 1.6.

However, there is more evidence that new coronavirus infections may be increasing more slowly than in previous weeks.

This was my overall observation. However national and local government had a role to play with very carefully worded messages that did not deter people from venturing out and spending money in shops, pubs etc while maintaining distancing but these were conspicuous by there absence. The restrictions for the Manchester area at the end of July should have triggered this nationwide.

Mid-August I wrote ( email ) to my local council with my concern about the lack of distancing within groups but did not receive even an acknowledgement.

Had this happened while with schools and universities returning the number of positive results would still have increased the total daily figures should have been significantly lower and the recent national restrictions e.g. only 15 at a wedding not 30, the rule of six etc would not have been necessary so long as each household / bubble kept 2m from all others.

Right now the different rules for different areas are very confusing. The detail of the Green - Amber - Red plan now proposed should have been in place at the latest early July to be implemented as required.

 

[yorkie]

One of the (many!) things really annoying me of late is the inconsistent use of 'from' and 'with' when quoting the number of Covid-19 related deaths. Have 42k people in the UK died from Covid-19 or with it? Am I alone in thinking it's rather important to make that distinction? The two terms seem to be used interchangeably, when infact they carry a very different meaning....

It's with the Sars-cov-2 virus; one of our cleaners was telling us about a lady in her 80s who died with Sars-Cov-2 virus but suffered a fall and wouldn't have survived regardless of whether or not she was infected. It's not even clear whether she had developed Covid19 symptoms or not. But it still counts.

 

[DustyBin]

It's with the Sars-cov-2 virus; one of our cleaners was telling us about a lady in her 80s who died with Sars-Cov-2 virus but suffered a fall and wouldn't have survived regardless of whether or not she was infected. It's not even clear whether she had developed Covid19 symptoms or not. But it still counts.

That’s my understanding too, the correct term is ‘with’. It doesn’t sound quite as scary though does it!

 

[Skimpot flyer]

It's with the Sars-cov-2 virus; one of our cleaners was telling us about a lady in her 80s who died with Sars-Cov-2 virus but suffered a fall and wouldn't have survived regardless of whether or not she was infected. It's not even clear whether she had developed Covid19 symptoms or not. But it still counts.

It’s no wonder some people question what’s really going on, when deaths in which Covid19 was present but was not the cause of a person’s demise, are nonetheless counted towards the total. Add-in that only 10% of students recently testing positive at Northumbria University actually had symptoms, you could easily see government ‘justify’ further measures on the grounds that anyone who has no symptoms is a potential danger to others, despite the fact that most people not having symptoms is because they don’t have the virus!!