Further Restrictions Announced by Johnson (22/09)

[Bantamzen]

The most libertarian country of all is the USA. Frankly the Trump administration's response has been disastrous and deadly. We must not follow their lead.
We are heading towards a second lockdown unless people start behaving with a greater sense of responsibility and respect towards others.

So which "people" are you blaming here? I ask because this has become a theme with this virus, blame everyone else for it but yourself. Sadly the reality is that viruses spread, that's what they do.

It is obvious to me (am I alone?) that the more people get together and mix, the greater the chance of the virus is of being spread. The previous lockdown reduced the transmission rate and incidence of the disease: was this a coincidence?

I can see the headline now, "Virus in spreading amongst species in close contact shock". So no you are not alone, this has been known for a very long time. Its what viruses do

Also, something else which is not often mentioned is the long-term consequences of Covid-19. The outcomes are not just death or recovery (as if it was flu), but there are some unfortunate people who suffer long term health issues, mostly lung and respiratory-related. Some do recovery eventually, but do you want to gamble?

Ah yes, "long covid". It seems to me that if this were really a major issue, we would hear a lot more than the occasional media reference to it. Given that we are over 6 months into this, if "long covid" was a big factor we would certainly be aware. But we are not, which suggests that it is not a big problem. That's not to say nobody will have long term issues, but that is true of many illnesses.

 

[yorksrob]

There would not need to be as nearly authoritarian restrictions, however, had the government actually got it's act together to support those self-isolating properly as other countries do. The levels of self-isolation are shameful. Mixed messages are also a major hindrance. Any sense though of Boris enjoying locking things down though to me makes no sense whatsoever. It is hurting his polling, the case for Brexit is arguably also being harmed in the process too and he has always learned towards the libertarian wing of the party.

Well it's true- the Government's response has been poor at times and the USA's response hasn't been consistent or coordinated. But there are countries that have had a very consistent and strict response to the virus, such as France and Spain currently that are also suffering surges in infections.

There are aspects of this virus that are very difficult to control, and whilst I am absolutely on board with proportionate steps to control its spread, such as the rule of six, face coverings in enclosed settings etc, I absolutely cannot agree with a complayer belt of ever more draconian restrictions of limited value such as banning people from seeing other households altogether or going anywhere else. I also cannot agree with measures that seem to be imposed "because something must be done" such as the scapegoating of hospitality, something that Central Government seems to be contemplating to an even greater extent in Liverpool at the moment.

The local restrictions also worry me because it's easier to ignore the plight of residents in some town far away up nortn, whereas Government are more likely to be responsive if their own constituents in the home counties are squealing.

I've generally been very sceptical about the performance of the Labour party in all of this, however it's good to see that Andy Burnham is beginning to question the over-reliance on draconian local restrictions today.

 

[yorkie]

It is obvious to me (am I alone?) that the more people get together and mix, the greater the chance of the virus is of being spread. The previous lockdown reduced the transmission rate and incidence of the disease: was this a coincidence?

Also, something else which is not often mentioned is the long-term consequences of Covid-19. The outcomes are not just death or recovery (as if it was flu), but there are some unfortunate people who suffer long term health issues, mostly lung and respiratory-related. Some do recovery eventually, but do you want to gamble?

Do you deny people have long term effects from other viruses that widely circulate, like flu?

If you don't deny that, what's your solution for those?

 

[C J Snarzell]

Does anyone else on here feel both confused and detached by all this now? The confusion is just the endless rule changing by the government, then further rules by local authorities, then 'threats' of fines for non compliance. It's just relentless moving of the goal posts. It almost feels like our country is now being run by the cast of Fraggle Rock.

The detachment for me is the endless non stop media coverage of the virus which feels like listening to a broken record now. I simply switch off now - I've stopped reading newspapers (mainly because I'm not interested what dress Kate Middleton is wearing today either!!!) and the television only goes on for films and DVDs.

CJ

 

[Bantamzen]

Does anyone else on here feel both confused and detached by all this now? The confusion is just the endless rule changing by the government, then further rules by local authorities, then 'threats' of fines for non compliance. It's just relentless moving of the goal posts. It almost feels like our country is now being run by the cast of Fraggle Rock.

The detachment for me is the endless non stop media coverage of the virus which feels like listening to a broken record now. I simply switch off now - I've stopped reading newspapers (mainly because I'm not interested what dress Kate Middleton is wearing today either!!!) and the television only goes on for films and DVDs.

CJ

Yes I do, and like you I've largely stopped watching TV for fear of tripping over another "grim" statistic on the news, or some presenter telling us that our breathing might kill granny. I do still occasionally find myself gravitating towards the BBC News website, but I am weaning myself off that too. My one downfall is social media, I find it difficult to not articulate how I'm feeling and often end up arguing with other people on my network still convinced that we are all going to die from covid. A cull may be in order this week!

But its got to the point where the online game DayZ, a post apocalyptic survival game, seems less stressful than trying to figure out what today's restrictions are, and how thee hell they are going to make a difference!

 

[Richard Scott]

I agree. In fact, with your last sentence, this has been made very clear that the government is willing to act in this way this evening. Many of these deaths are avoidable.


Yes, it is causing monumental damage to the economy but what's the point if so many are dead and many more have long term complications, that we are only just starting to see. For me personally as young and fit 20 something, honestly I'll likely be fine. My parents in their 70's who shield due to health reasons and my 96-year-old grandparent much less so. It's them I worry about when I hear herd immunity. Herd immunity to me sounds like you are willing to put those people on the line. Whilst I understand the rationale and logic behind such desires to see an end to the restrictions, that is something I cannot personally get on board with if it means putting them in harm's way.

How long do you want them shielding for? What life do they have if they're doing this for the rest of their days. The herd immunity is their best option as puts them at lower risk the more people who've had it. Also if they're shielding what risk does it expose them to that they're not already being exposed to? Always notice people say they're worried about this person or that person and not actually saying what that person wants. Can be somewhat selfish?

 

[talldave]

Does anyone else on here feel both confused and detached by all this now? The confusion is just the endless rule changing by the government, then further rules by local authorities, then 'threats' of fines for non compliance. It's just relentless moving of the goal posts. It almost feels like our country is now being run by the cast of Fraggle Rock.

The detachment for me is the endless non stop media coverage of the virus which feels like listening to a broken record now. I simply switch off now - I've stopped reading newspapers (mainly because I'm not interested what dress Kate Middleton is wearing today either!!!) and the television only goes on for films and DVDs.

CJ

Indeed. Ignore TV/radio news and have an occasional read online.

I have no idea about current rules, I just ignore them all.

 

[MotCO]

Do you deny people have long term effects from other viruses that widely circulate, like flu?

If you don't deny that, what's your solution for those?

No I don't deny it, but in one of my earlier posts I say that I think that it is the sheer numbers affected which makes it different from 'normal flu'.

 

[CW2]

So which "people" are you blaming here? I ask because this has become a theme with this virus, blame everyone else for it but yourself. Sadly the reality is that viruses spread, that's what they do.

There is not one single homogenous group labelled "People to Blame". We - collectively - need to act in a different way compared to pre-COVID. If we allow/encourage the virus to spread then we face many more deaths or seriously ill people clogging up the hospitals during the winter flu season, until such time as vaccination / herd immunity becomes available. That seems to be a very high price to pay for the ability to have an unmasked night out with my mates.

No I don't deny it, but in one of my earlier posts I say that I think that it is the sheer numbers affected which makes it different from 'normal flu'.

Normal flu varies from year to year, hence why there is a different flu jab each year. As yet there is no equivalent COVID jab. That alone makes it much more deadly.

 

[bramling]

Does anyone else on here feel both confused and detached by all this now? The confusion is just the endless rule changing by the government, then further rules by local authorities, then 'threats' of fines for non compliance. It's just relentless moving of the goal posts. It almost feels like our country is now being run by the cast of Fraggle Rock.

The detachment for me is the endless non stop media coverage of the virus which feels like listening to a broken record now. I simply switch off now - I've stopped reading newspapers (mainly because I'm not interested what dress Kate Middleton is wearing today either!!!) and the television only goes on for films and DVDs.

CJ

I am very much feeling that government is losing it. They seem to be frantically grabbing restrictions off the shelf as it seems to be the only thing they can think of doing.

I get the feeling things are anything but calm behind the scenes. I wouldn’t be surprised there’s now bickering going on as to what to do, and Boris is becoming increasingly frantic knowing he’s gone so far down a particular policy route (£300bn to be precise!) it’s too politically awkward to retreat. Sunak is already starting to break ranks, though he isn’t exactly smelling of roses either.

 

[Bantamzen]

No I don't deny it, but in one of my earlier posts I say that I think that it is the sheer numbers affected which makes it different from 'normal flu'.

When you say "sheer numbers", you are aware how many people get influenza every single year? Perhaps you are also aware that in the winter of 2017/18 there were 50K+ excess deaths (many of them related to influenza), way more than we have seen this year?

There is not one single homogenous group labelled "People to Blame". We - collectively - need to act in a different way compared to pre-COVID. If we allow/encourage the virus to spread then we face many more deaths or seriously ill people clogging up the hospitals during the winter flu season, until such time as vaccination / herd immunity becomes available. That seems to be a very high price to pay for the ability to have an unmasked night out with my mates.

As above, did you mask up in the winter of 2017/18?

 

[yorkie]

No I don't deny it, but in one of my earlier posts I say that I think that it is the sheer numbers affected which makes it different from 'normal flu'.

Do you agree this might be because we don't yet have as much immunity as we have for flu?

I also have concerns about the accuracy of claims made in another post of yours; I will respond to that shortly by editing this post.

 

[trebor79]

Ah yes, "long covid". It seems to me that if this were really a major issue, we would hear a lot more than the occasional media reference to it. Given that we are over 6 months into this, if "long covid" was a big factor we would certainly be aware. But we are not, which suggests that it is not a big problem. That's not to say nobody will have long term issues, but that is true of many illnesses.

I'm very sceptical of "long COVID" being any more prevalant or debilitating than "long flu". I mean what are the chances, that this new virus just happens to be one that comes with a huge hangover of very varied and inexplicable symptoms? Although I've seen suggestions in the press that "up to 500,000 are suffering", the only actual first hand reports seem to be from media hacks with a "lockdown now" agenda and one report from someone who said "my doctor suggested I was mentally ill", which was amusing because that was the exact conclusion I came to whilst reading the piece!

Does anyone else on here feel both confused and detached by all this now? The confusion is just the endless rule changing by the government, then further rules by local authorities, then 'threats' of fines for non compliance. It's just relentless moving of the goal posts. It almost feels like our country is now being run by the cast of Fraggle Rock.

Yep. Couldn't care less about any of the petty restrictions etc that are coming in.

I am very much feeling that government is losing it. They seem to be frantically grabbing restrictions off the shelf as it seems to be the only thing they can think of doing.

I get the feeling things are anything but calm behind the scenes. I wouldn’t be surprised there’s now bickering going on as to what to do, and Boris is becoming increasingly frantic knowing he’s gone so far down a particular policy route (£300bn to be precise!) it’s too politically awkward to retreat. Sunak is already starting to break ranks, though he isn’t exactly smelling of roses either.

Clearly the backbench rebels have been bought off for now (or was that all a feint??) but I suspect some of the more capable members of cabinet are plotting something. Watch Gove...

 

[Skimpot flyer]

There is not one single homogenous group labelled "People to Blame". We - collectively - need to act in a different way compared to pre-COVID. If we allow/encourage the virus to spread then we face many more deaths or seriously ill people clogging up the hospitals during the winter flu season, until such time as vaccination / herd immunity becomes available. That seems to be a very high price to pay for the ability to have an unmasked night out with my mates.


Normal flu varies from year to year, hence why there is a different flu jab each year. As yet there is no equivalent COVID jab. That alone makes it much more deadly.

IF, and it’s a big if, face coverings really do work effectively to reduce transmission of coronavirus (or reduce viral load), why are you and the government now scare-mongering about a surge in deaths from flu? Do masks block covid but not flu?? If there is any justification for masks, then they should severely reduce the chances of an abnormal number of flu deaths this particular winter, surely?

Even with a vaccine, flu deaths have not been eradicated.
Even if we get a coronavirus vaccine, and the take-up is high, are we to continue living like this, on the basis that people are still dying with (note, not of) coronavirus???

 

[Jamiescott1]

How long do you want them shielding for? What life do they have if they're doing this for the rest of their days.

My 82 year old dad is living as normal life as possible. He goes out on the bus most days, goes to the pub with his mates on a Sunday and is looking to go abroad at Christmas.
He says staying at home is not living but just waiting to die.
He's annoyed at the restrictions as the highlight of his week used to be ex boxers meetings which are now cancelled due to to restrictions.
I fully support his stance as if he dies I want him to of enjoyed his final few months.

 

[Bikeman78]

IF, and it’s a big if, face coverings really do work effectively to reduce transmission of coronavirus (or reduce viral load), why are you and the government now scare-mongering about a surge in deaths from flu? Do masks block covid but not flu?? If there is any justification for masks, then they should severely reduce the chances of an abnormal number of flu deaths this particular winter, surely?

Let's not forgot all those people in Stockholm risking their lives, going on trains, in pubs and in restaurants without masks. Before anyone says "Oh but it's different there," please note that I have been to Stockholm.

 

[Bletchleyite]

I fully support his stance as if he dies I want him to of enjoyed his final few months.

I've heard that view an awful lot, and TBH if I was that age I'd agree.

The fear seems to come mostly from people in their 30s and 40s scared of losing their parents, not from the older people fearing possible death.

 

[Bikeman78]

My 82 year old dad is living as normal life as possible. He goes out on the bus most days, goes to the pub with his mates on a Sunday and is looking to go abroad at Christmas.
He says staying at home is not living but just waiting to die.
He's annoyed at the restrictions as the highlight of his week used to be ex boxers meetings which are now cancelled due to to restrictions.
I fully support his stance as if he dies I want him to of enjoyed his final few months.

Good for him. My granny would have done the same in her 80s. She was 60 years older than me but every bit as fit and healthy.

 

[trebor79]

I've heard that view an awful lot, and TBH if I was that age I'd agree.

The fear seems to come mostly from people in their 30s and 40s scared of losing their parents, not from the older people fearing possible death.

My parents, in their early 70's but both with health issues are of the same view, as am I.

My mother-in-law, perfectly fit is rather more circumspect but on the sensible side of cautious (other than sometimes wearing a bit of cloth on her face outdoors because she thinks it will protect her). My wife though... I try not to let covid come up because the conversation always morphs into a rant about how irresponsible my parents are for going out lunch, we shouldn't have let our son have a sleepover because "it's against the rules", we should socially distance and wear masks when we see them, but not her mum because her mum lives alone and we are therefore her "support bubble". I asked on this latter point what practical difference it makes - big mistake ended up with her telling me that she's very concerned my parents will catch covid (because they are so 'irresponsible'), pass it to us and then her mum will catch it from us and die. It was left in no uncertain terms how annoyed Mrs Trebor would be were that to happen.
Mrs Trebor is all for hanging and shooting the students, but even her mother says "that's a bit harsh" and doesn't blame the students at all for wanting to have a good time.

So yes, from my sample size of 1 I'd agree a lot of the hysteria is with folk in their 40's worried about mum and dad.

 

[Skimpot flyer]

Good for him. My granny would have done the same in her 80s. She was 60 years older than me but every bit as fit and healthy.

I echo those sentiments. My late Nan was active and had a great sense of humour all her life. I remember my father accompanied her to a John Lewis store to buy a Smart TV. The young salesman praised her choice of item, adding ‘and, of course, it’s guaranteed for 5 years, madam’
Quick as a flash, she grinned and said ‘sadly, I’m not!’

 

[brad465]

I wasn't 100% sure where to put this, but as it relates to restrictions have gone for this thread (happy for it to be moved if more appropriate elsewhere):

A rather depressing report I think here suggesting even a vaccine won't return life to normal by spring. I do think this needs to fuel arguments for a different approach, as what we're doing now is barely sustainable now and for the rest of 2020, let alone beyond spring 2021:

Covid: Vaccine will 'not return life to normal in spring'

Leading scientists call for realism about what a vaccine against Covid can achieve next year.

www.bbc.co.uk

Even an effective coronavirus vaccine will not return life to normal in spring, a group of leading scientists has warned.

A vaccine is often seen as the holy grail that will end the pandemic.

But a report, from researchers brought together by the Royal Society, said we needed to be "realistic" about what a vaccine could achieve and when.

They said restrictions may need to be "gradually relaxed" as it could take up to a year to roll the vaccine out.

More than 200 vaccines to protect against the virus are being developed by scientists around the world in a process that is taking place at unprecedented speed.

"A vaccine offers great hope for potentially ending the pandemic, but we do know that the history of vaccine development is littered with lots of failures," said Dr Fiona Culley, from the National Heart and Lung Institute at Imperial College London.

 

[joncombe]

I wasn't 100% sure where to put this, but as it relates to restrictions have gone for this thread (happy for it to be moved if more appropriate elsewhere):

A rather depressing report I think here suggesting even a vaccine won't return life to normal by spring. I do think this needs to fuel arguments for a different approach, as what we're doing now is barely sustainable now and for the rest of 2020, let alone beyond spring 2021

Yes I saw that too and I agree it's depressing. Back in March we were told a vaccine was at least 6 months away. Here we are 6 months later and a vaccine is still at least 6 months away. That is not to say many people aren't working extremely hard on it I know they are. Just feels like this situation is never ending at the moment.

I have however been re-assured to read many of the recommended comments on the BBC today and it does feel like the tide of public opinion is turning.

For example on this page : https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-54368306 "Covid in Scotland: No new virus restrictions announced" the most recommended comment is

4 hours ago
This is just kicking the can down the line.

I was with the government. I am not now. We need to learn to live with this virus.

The damage you are doing to mental health by closing down the economy is dangerous, reckless and wrong. We are creatures of structure and habit. The poverty and hopelessness this leaves is far more dangerous than COVID.

Shame on you.

Equally the third most recommended is

If the NHS was currently swamped a circuit breaker may slow the rate of transmission and buy some breathing room - but it's not. The only results would be negative for cancer patients, mental health issues, people out of work. Covid is here for the foreseeable - we need the FM to say so instead of posturing politically. Shelter the vulnerable, let everyone else carry get on with life.

Whilst on this article (also from today) : https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-54366478 "Covid-19: Growth in cases may be slowing in England" the most recommended comment is

7 hours ago
The government needs to decide how long we can continue with a cycle of lockdown and release. We cannot continue indefinitely in this Groundhog Day scenario when the fatality rate simply does not justify it. Shield the vulnerable, yes, but let’s face the reality that you can’t stop all deaths by preventing the rest of us from living.

It's the first time I can remember most of the most recommended comments being anti further restrictions and suggesting people have now tired of it and aren't prepared to continue like this until a vaccine is found (which might be never).

 

[Richard Scott]

My 82 year old dad is living as normal life as possible. He goes out on the bus most days, goes to the pub with his mates on a Sunday and is looking to go abroad at Christmas.
He says staying at home is not living but just waiting to die.
He's annoyed at the restrictions as the highlight of his week used to be ex boxers meetings which are now cancelled due to to restrictions.
I fully support his stance as if he dies I want him to of enjoyed his final few months.

Good on him and on you for supporting him in that. My mother is slightly younger at 76 but of same view and whilst don't want anything to happen to her it's her life and she wants to live it.

 

[HSTEd]

Well now the Graun is at last admitting that the eternal lockdown will continue beyond the deployment of a vaccine.

 

[al78]

I don't know if that's quite the case. There is a lot of "evidence" that can be used to support a view, whichever it is. This forum was generally anti-Brexit and again, I wonder if that was again linked to similar broad demographics. That's not to say that you can't be pro-Brexit and anti-Covid restrictions nor vice versa

The problem is there exists the unfortunate cognitive bias that results in people forming an opinion, then selectively researching sources that support that opinion, whilst ignoring or dismissing anything that counters it. I am extremely skeptical that anyone on this forum is any different, on average, from the general population in this regard. This is one reason why we have the scientific method, because it is trivially easy to fool yourself.

Coronavirus: The Real Risks and Human Biases Behind the Panic

The 2020 freakout over the coronavirus reveals a few fascinating human biases, which tend to make us terrible at handling risk. Here's an honest look at what's happening.

markmanson.net

Point 3. is particularly appropriate.

Why You Can't Trust Yourself

Eight reasons why you can’t trust yourself, as demonstrated by psychology.

markmanson.net

The Cognitive Biases That Hurt Our Relationships

We're all victims of our own cognitive biases. Some of them just make us more awful human beings than others.

markmanson.net

 

[Richard Scott]

Well now the Graun is at last admitting that the eternal lockdown will continue beyond the deployment of a vaccine.

I hope this turns out to be untrue but doubt it. I am going to be selfish and say I am totally fed up with my life being on hold because some politicians say so because they are paranoid about a virus that is much less dangerous than first thought. I have followed the rules as told initially was only for a few months and to help the NHS, now the goal posts keep moving and am thoroughly fed up with it as are many people I know.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 1 Oct 2020 ==

The problem is there exists the unfortunate cognitive bias that results in people forming an opinion, then selectively researching sources that support that opinion, whilst ignoring or dismissing anything that counters it.

Interestingly that's what you seem to have done here.

 

[Bikeman78]

I echo those sentiments. My late Nan was active and had a great sense of humour all her life. I remember my father accompanied her to a John Lewis store to buy a Smart TV. The young salesman praised her choice of item, adding ‘and, of course, it’s guaranteed for 5 years, madam’
Quick as a flash, she grinned and said ‘sadly, I’m not!’

Brilliant. I laughed when I read this.

 

[yorkie]

....A rather depressing report I think here suggesting even a vaccine won't return life to normal by spring....

Given these restrictions appear to be imposed in order to wait it out for a vaccine, if there is any truth in this report that a vaccine isn't going to be a panacea, this is all the more reason to get back to normal

This is a good video about how our restrictions are wrong:

...In Toussaint's view, the Covid-19 pandemic has exposed the "ceiling" of humanity, which is evidenced by the fact that some of the worst affected regions in the world are also the most developed. This, he says, has forced us to confront the limits of our species. As such, we should turn our attention to "filling" life rather than keeping ourselves "in a cave" (lockdown) for perpetuity....

Of course the likes of Whitty and Valance won't be listening to any views that consider the bigger picture beyond their narrow view.

 

[Skimpot flyer]

Brilliant. I laughed when I read this.

I’m glad, she would have been pleased to know her humour lives on

 

[bramling]

Given these restrictions appear to be imposed in order to wait it out for a vaccine, if there is any truth in this report that a vaccine isn't going to be a panacea, this is all the more reason to get back to normal

This is a good video about how our restrictions are wrong:

Of course the likes of Whitty and Valance won't be listening to any views that consider the bigger picture beyond their narrow view.

Banking on a vaccine, as we now seem to be doing, is madness (IMO). However, if that's the strategy then it should at the very least be being debated, scrutinised and voted upon in parliament.

It's one thing working on the basis of "we're going to have restrictions until X date, at which point we're assured of an effective vaccine" (where X date is in the pretty near future), however that doesn't seem to be the position.