Covid : Infection rates v death rates and a possible second wave

[WelshBluebird]

In terms of the cases numbers - we can't really make a judgement yet - especially as it is still difficult to find a test in many areas!
Not saying they aren't going down, but just a bit of caution may be sensible given that the numbers are very likely constrained by people not being able to get tests.

Same here. Loads of people who are WFH saying they're just as productive/efficient, no need to return to office etc. How does that fit in with the messages from organisations saying allow extra time for calls to be answered, live chat not available, allow an extra day or two for deliveries, etc etc?

I suspect the groups of people who are fine working from home are a different group of people than those working for places that are being adversely affected as you mention!

 

[adc82140]

Do health professionals really believe that child attending a party with other children that they spend 5 days a week with at school increases "risk" at all?

Of course not. But if we ended up with a fine for non compliance with any of the rules, they'd have to be seen to be doing something.

 

[LAX54]

There is a report on the BBC website today, saying deaths have reached ' a mind numbing' 1 million, in the World, but when you consider the World Pop is at least 7.8 BILLION, it is still a very small amount

 

[Huntergreed]

There is a report on the BBC website today, saying deaths have reached ' a mind numbing' 1 million, in the World, but when you consider the World Pop is at least 7.8 BILLION, it is still a very small amount

Deaths WITH Covid have reached 1 million, the deaths from the disease (and only the disease) will be much, much less.

 

[DB]

Deaths WITH Covid have reached 1 million, the deaths from the disease (and only the disease) will be much, much less.

Quite. That wasn't mentioned, was it? There's a surprise.

And as with all these big numbers banded about, they never put them into context - e.g. how it compares with flu deaths, cancer deaths, etc.

 

[brad465]

There is a report on the BBC website today, saying deaths have reached ' a mind numbing' 1 million, in the World, but when you consider the World Pop is at least 7.8 BILLION, it is still a very small amount

As a percentage it's 0.013%. While not a flu virus, compared to Spanish Flu's 17-50 million deaths estimate in a world with a then population of less than 2 billion, even if Covid-19 achieved the same figures as Spanish Flu it would still be a much lower proportion.

 

[DB]

As a percentage it's 0.013%. While not a flu virus, compared to Spanish Flu's 17-50 million deaths estimate in a world with a then population of less than 2 billion, even if Covid-19 achieved the same figures as Spanish Flu it would still be a much lower proportion.

And 0.013% is actually within the range of flu.

 

[Mag_seven]

There is a report on the BBC website today, saying deaths have reached ' a mind numbing' 1 million, in the World, but when you consider the World Pop is at least 7.8 BILLION, it is still a very small amount

Has the phrase "grim milestone" been trotted out yet?

And 0.013% is actually within the range of flu.

That fact doesn't matter - provided Facebook Karen is now even more terrified than ever and is now calling for even more restrictions is all that counts.

 

[LAX54]

Has the phrase "grim milestone" been trotted out yet?



That fact doesn't matter - provided Facebook Karen is now even more terrified than ever and is now calling for even more restrictions is all that counts.

Pretty sure Grim has been mentioned more than once and maybe from those thinking the way it's been handled is Grim ! it's not only Facebook Karen she is alos on Twitter and Instagram, and has a direct line to BJ !

 

[Peter Mugridge]

Deaths WITH Covid have reached 1 million, the deaths from the disease (and only the disease) will be much, much less.

...which hasn't stopped BBC News 24 repeatedly saying "the true number of deaths will be much higher!"

 

[Mag_seven]

...which hasn't stopped BBC News 24 repeatedly saying "the true number of deaths will be much higher!"

Or they could be much lower! (btw, it's The BBC News Channel - it hasn't been called BBC News 24 since 2008!)

 

[LAX54]

Or they could be much lower! (btw, it's The BBC News Channel - it hasn't been called BBC News 24 since 2008!)

They have also said on the News Site: "An Agonising Milestone" ! there is no mention of the total world poulation anywhere, so that people can make comparisons in numbers

The other thing that has crossed my mind, we are told time and time again how bad it is when you 'get it' and yes many have been hit hard, BUT does the way it's reported saying die here, die there, takes many months to recover if atll, does that have an effect on those that maybe easily led, and it becomes a case of Oh No I have C19 I am going to die, and just weaken their resolve and bang..they are in Hospital ?

 

[brad465]

Talk Radio had Dr John Lee on yesterday morning (I don't normally listen to them given their political alignment but I'm in agreement with their Covid stances), who's a former NHS Consultant pathologist, where he spoke about, among other things in criticism of the restrictions, the need to have a grown up conversation about death (as someone who's dealt with it plenty in his job) and accept that quality of life matters (Julia H-B also revealed her 78 year old mum was travelling back from France as a show of this).

 

[Yew]

That fact doesn't matter - provided Facebook Karen is now even more terrified than ever and is now calling for even more restrictions is all that counts.

Indeed, prepare to see the circular argument of "we don't lock down for flu, so it must be more dangerous than flu".

 

[kristiang85]

They have also said on the News Site: "An Agonising Milestone" ! there is no mention of the total world poulation anywhere, so that people can make comparisons in numbers

The media really need to provide perspective.

1.5m people die of TB a year, that's even with a vaccine. I don't see the developing world locking down.

1.4m people die in road traffic accidents - quick, let's ban cars.

1.8m die of lung cancer - of which presumably smoking is the largest risk factor, but I don't see the WHO banning cigarettes.

Even suicide is 800,000 per year, and that's probably going up this year.

1m deaths is a huge number, yes, but it's just for this year - I guarantee that by 2021 this will be far less. All the figures for the above will be the same, if not more, next year, and the years after that. Showing a big number is not enough justification for bringing the global economy to its knees and ruining the livelihoods of so many people.

 

[Freightmaster]

The other thing that has crossed my mind, we are told time and time again how bad it is when you 'get it' and yes many have been hit hard, BUT does the way it's reported saying die here, die there, takes many months to recover if atll, does that have an effect on those that maybe easily led, and it becomes a case of Oh No I have C19 I am going to die, and just weaken their resolve and bang..they are in Hospital ?

There has apparently been a huge increase in calls to 111 (and sometimes 999) in recent weeks
from what doctors call the "worried well":

Bad Medicine: The worried hell

The ‘worried well’. I can’t quite remember when I heard this expression, nor who might have coined it. But it is common parlance in medicine and all GPs understand its meaning implicitly. I know that we shouldn’t use stereotypes, but where is the fun in that? The worried well are educated...

bjgp.org

MARK

 

[Peter Mugridge]

What I suspect has happened in the past fortnight is as the schools have gone back, the pupils are getting lots more colds and stomach bugs ( which they do every term, especially every autumn term ) and are being sent for tests, along with their parents, as a result. Consequent to this is the testing has picked up an awful lot of asymptomatic cases which would have otherwise gone undetected.

That would seem to explain the sharp increase in cases, and the timing of it, followed by the drop back in the last few days.



Edited for typo. At least this time I spotted it before anyone immortalised it in a screenshot or quote...

 

[Yew]

Fortunately, things are returning to normal levels.

https://twitter.com/UKCovid19Stats/status/1310874325495537670/photo/1

 

[bramling]

Deaths WITH Covid have reached 1 million, the deaths from the disease (and only the disease) will be much, much less.

There was some quite sensible coverage on the Sky press preview last night, where both commentators made the point that the general population still vastly over-estimates the likelihood of passing away from this.

The trouble is that neither the government nor the media have done anything to reassure, on the contrary in fact. I don’t think it’s at all responsible to actively put fear into the population.

 

[Class 33]

OK, today's figures coming up in just a few minutes probably.....

Already been announced that today's HOSPITAL deaths is 47 unfortunately. So the total figures will be between 50 and 60 probably. Not good. But remember Tuesday's is almost always the worst day of the week for deaths.

Also looking highly likely that there will be an increase of yesterday's cases, given that Scotland's and Wales figures are already in with quite an increase.

Let's see what comes up in just a mo....

 

[RomeoCharlie71]

OK, today's figures coming up in just a few minutes probably.....

7,143 cases

 

[Class 33]

7,143 cases

Unfortunately yes. Which is a darn shocker.

And 71 deaths. Wasn't expecting a rise up to that sort of level.

The press and media will be making a right fuss about today's figures, as will probably Johnson, Whitty and Valance tomorrow. This could even fuel Johnson into bringing in yet more restrictions any day now.

I was so hoping for another drop in cases today, even if a relatively small drop.

A BAD day today to say the least.

Let's hope for a better day tomorrow and the coming week ahead....

 

[Yew]

7,143 cases

Still less than the Vallance prediction for 24/09..

 

[Bletchleyite]

Still less than the Vallance prediction for 24/09..

If you look at the "date of test" graph, it shows a linear, not exponential, growth.

 

[30907]

If you look at the "date of test" graph, it shows a linear, not exponential, growth.

Are you able to link to that, please? I can't find a recent one.

 

[LAX54]

Unfortunately yes. Which is a darn shocker.

And 71 deaths. Wasn't expecting a rise up to that sort of level.

The press and media will be making a right fuss about today's figures, as will probably Johnson, Whitty and Valance tomorrow. This could even fuel Johnson into bringing in yet more restrictions any day now.

I was so hoping for another drop in cases today, even if a relatively small drop.

A BAD day today to say the least.

Let's hope for a better day tomorrow and the coming week ahead....

71 FROM or WITH Covid, and I assume the 'previous 28 day with covid' reporting still applies

 

[Bletchleyite]

Are you able to link to that, please? I can't find a recent one.

Coronavirus (COVID-19) in the UK

GOV.UK Coronavirus dashboard

coronavirus.data.gov.uk

 

[Dent]

Looks like another reporting backlog day, look at the By Specimen Date and By Date of Death graphs and there is no spike in either.

 

[SJN]

Apparently there’s been a delay at the labs.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Apparently there’s been a delay at the labs.

There was a low day, it's probably some of those coming up now.

Hopefully it is not used, alone, as an excuse to tighten measures.