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Will we see mass protests against authoritarianism and Covid19 restrictions?

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Bletchleyite

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The problem is that, much as we might all wish otherwise, the current policy is simply kicking the can down the road, and banking on the emergence of an effective vaccine. For how long can we continue down that path?

Well, while it looks like a vaccine will be viable, doesn't it at least make sense to give it a go?

If it became clear one was not, then that would change things.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: ==

Mostly because so many people are being paid by the government for a long holiday and see the ongoing restrictions as a way to keep that up. When that ends (and the new scheme is nothing like so generous) then some home truths will hit.

But will the protests not be "keep the furlough", not "remove the restrictions"?
 
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MattA7

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Although I personally don’t celebrate Christmas (religious reasons) I think that if it is confirmed families won’t be able to meet up that may well be the final straw for a lot of people even if they are currently pro-restrictions. Especially as someone Christian families were unable to celebrate Easter.
 

Bletchleyite

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Although I personally don’t celebrate Christmas (religious reasons) I think that if it is confirmed families won’t be able to meet up that may well be the final straw for a lot of people even if they are currently pro-restrictions. Especially as someone Christian families were unable to celebrate Easter.

One side of me thinks this will happen anyway so as not to be unfair to those other religions (Islam/Judaism) that have had their festival mucked up by this - in the former case, in Manchester, just hours beforehand. That's like having to bin the already cooked turkey and sprouts.
 

birchesgreen

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No chance, will Johnson (or whomever is in charge by then) want to be known as the politician who cancelled christmas? Political career death!
 

birchesgreen

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He'd be forever dogged by that label for as long as he lived, there is no way he would want that. It would overshadow any other legacy he might try and get for himself. Christmas will not be cancelled.

Although personally i'm not bothered one way or the other, cancel it before i have to buy any presents is fine!
 

Bletchleyite

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He'd be forever dogged by that label for as long as he lived, there is no way he would want that. It would overshadow any other legacy he might try and get for himself. Christmas will not be cancelled.

Although personally i'm not bothered one way or the other, cancel it before i have to buy any presents is fine!

I suspect what he will do is push for tighter restrictions in the next couple of months to bring cases down enough that restrictions can be reduced (but not removed - I'm more thinking say increasing the rule of 6 to a rule of say 10 or 20 so the vast majority of family type gatherings can happen but not massive house parties) for 2 weeks over the school holiday break (which will slightly be offset by the schools being out anyway), then restricting again just after to get them down again.
 

bramling

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Well, while it looks like a vaccine will be viable, doesn't it at least make sense to give it a go?

If it became clear one was not, then that would change things.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: ==



But will the protests not be "keep the furlough", not "remove the restrictions"?

No I don’t think they will be.

Those who are at work, which over time has been an increasing number of people, are sick of hearing moaning about furlough, who have now had well over six months worth of support, at highly generous levels, with seemingly little to show for it. The only appetite to extend furlough would come from those benefiting from it.

Meanwhile increasing numbers are coming to realise that for most people the main symptom of Covid is being just fine, yet they’re being expected to wear restrictions now for a considerable length of time, which don’t actually seem to be achieving much tangible benefit apart from wrecking the economy and accruing a massive amount of debt.

The current strategy of tossing round blame is quite probably encouraging this shift in opinion. Patience was always going to run out with all this.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: ==

I suspect what he will do is push for tighter restrictions in the next couple of months to bring cases down enough that restrictions can be reduced (but not removed - I'm more thinking say increasing the rule of 6 to a rule of say 10 or 20 so the vast majority of family type gatherings can happen but not massive house parties) for 2 weeks over the school holiday break (which will slightly be offset by the schools being out anyway), then restricting again just after to get them down again.

I’m not going to abide by tougher restrictions over a longer period simply to make way for Christmas. You may well be right that that’s the strategy - if indeed there is one! Having said that, if students can be imprisoned in their halls then what makes us think Christmas would be an issue?
 

stevetay3

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Simple answer - No

For a start those who disagree with the restrictions are a minority - To have mass protests you need a cause which has very widespread public support and right now that is simply not the case nor is it even close to having anywhere near a critical mass (remember that people who will actually protest are a subset of a subset of a subset)
Wrong lots of people I speak to are apposed to all this repression, certainly not in a minority.
 

Howardh

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No I don’t think they will be.

Those who are at work, which over time has been an increasing number of people, are sick of hearing moaning about furlough, who have now had well over six months worth of support, at highly generous levels, with seemingly little to show for it. The only appetite to extend furlough would come from those benefiting from it.

Meanwhile increasing numbers are coming to realise that for most people the main symptom of Covid is being just fine, yet they’re being expected to wear restrictions now for a considerable length of time, which don’t actually seem to be achieving much tangible benefit apart from wrecking the economy and accruing a massive amount of debt.

The current strategy of tossing round blame is quite probably encouraging this shift in opinion. Patience was always going to run out with all this.

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I’m not going to abide by tougher restrictions over a longer period simply to make way for Christmas. You may well be right that that’s the strategy - if indeed there is one! Having said that, if students can be imprisoned in their halls then what makes us think Christmas would be an issue?
We say we're not going to abide by tougher restrictions - but if the hospitality venues and maybe non-essential shops are shut like last time...what can we do? We can't break into a pub for a swift half, or get our nails done by a woman who isn't there. So how can we not abide by them other than having a mass mask-burning exercise? We're trapped.
 

bramling

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We say we're not going to abide by tougher restrictions - but if the hospitality venues and maybe non-essential shops are shut like last time...what can we do? We can't break into a pub for a swift half, or get our nails done by a woman who isn't there. So how can we not abide by them other than having a mass mask-burning exercise? We're trapped.

I’m thinking more about things like movement restrictions. If enough people ignore then it becomes impossible to enforce - though the bumbling fool may try water cannon I suppose! ;)
 

43066

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Well, while it looks like a vaccine will be viable, doesn't it at least make sense to give it a go?

If it became clear one was not, then that would change things.

If that’s what the government is doing they need to be more honest about it - at this point that doesn’t seem to be their stated intention (is there one beyond simply “beating the virus”?).

Even putting that to one side, from what I’ve read, it’s going to a logistical impossibility to vaccinate a significant % of the population before the middle of next year or later. That’s even if an safe vaccine emerges by year end (which is the best case scenario), and even if it is effective enough to make a difference.

We say we're not going to abide by tougher restrictions - but if the hospitality venues and maybe non-essential shops are shut like last time...what can we do? We can't break into a pub for a swift half, or get our nails done by a woman who isn't there. So how can we not abide by them other than having a mass mask-burning exercise? We're trapped.

I don’t see that they can go back to a full lockdown, closing non essential businesses etc. Quite simply, it would be an act of economic suicide at this point, as Sunak has clearly realised.

My hope is that as the furloughs end up back at work (or in many cases thrown onto universal credit), the weather worsens, cases continue to rise, it will become politically necessary for a change of approach to something more realistic and sustainable.

We’ve perhaps seen the first signs of that with these latest restrictions, which fall a long way short of what many expected, and are essentially a pointless fudge which pleases nobody.


I’m thinking more about things like movement restrictions. If enough people ignore then it becomes impossible to enforce - though the bumbling fool may try water cannon I suppose! ;)

If there’s a mass mask burning Boris might think water cannon are “just the ticket” :).
 
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Howardh

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Blackpool's now joined the rest of Lancashire under further restrictions. Does this mean tourists can still, or can't, visit the resort? Note, the illuminations are on and have been extended until Christmas.
 

jtuk

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Blackpool's now joined the rest of Lancashire under further restrictions. Does this mean tourists can still, or can't, visit the resort? Note, the illuminations are on and have been extended until Christmas.

Ask Hancock's magic 8-ball is all I can suggest
 

Huntergreed

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Blackpool's now joined the rest of Lancashire under further restrictions. Does this mean tourists can still, or can't, visit the resort? Note, the illuminations are on and have been extended until Christmas.
Seems to be they can, long as they don’t go via public transport (essential only)
 

Howardh

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Seems to be they can, long as they don’t go via public transport (essential only)
I suppose a drive along the prom harms no-one. But many, like myself, would get the train for a night out or longer stay. So if visitors can't do that, and if the cars don't stop (or even pay to park) then the illuminations will add precicely £0 to the local economy.
 

island

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  • Or if a major football league club goes bankrupt because fans are still not allowed back into stadiums
This has already happened; a Championship club went into administration in June. There's been a moderate amount of local annoyance, but that's about it.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: ==

One side of me thinks this will happen anyway so as not to be unfair to those other religions (Islam/Judaism) that have had their festival mucked up by this - in the former case, in Manchester, just hours beforehand. That's like having to bin the already cooked turkey and sprouts.
The biggest annual Christian feast day has already been "mucked up", as it fell within the period when it was prohibited to leave one's home without a reasonable excuse.
 

jtuk

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Wigan went into admin because their new owners were bent, nothing to do with coronacold
 

bramling

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Seems to be they can, long as they don’t go via public transport (essential only)

On a similar note, it seems that whilst the Welsh lockdowns means people can’t enter or leave the areas concerned (more having been added today), apparently it doesn’t apply to English people!

I’m convinced there’s going to be serious trouble. I sensed a notable tension out and about this evening, and this is in a fairly docile part of the country. From overhearing conversations today people are sick of being treated like children, by a government utterly failing to deal with this, and who have made so many stupid slip-ups it’s farcical.

Part of me wonders if this government is actually collapsing. There’s a few of them that are either so out of their depth now it’s farcical (Williamson and Hancock for starters), unhinged in the first place (Patel and Cummings), and I get the feeling there’s a bit of a joust going on between Boris and Sunak. Meanwhile more and more bizarre restrictions seems to be popping up everywhere, with no form of strategy evident apart from “let’s beat the virus”.

If I were the Queen I’d be bursting into tears.
 
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brad465

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A predicted surge in unemployment at the end of the furlough scheme would not just be a likely trigger for mass protests, but by definition of being unemployed there are plenty who can easily protest throughout the week without fear of losing a job or having to take time off work.

Part of me wonders if this government is actually collapsing. There’s a few of them that are either so out of their depth now it’s farcical (Williamson and Hancock for starters), unhinged in the first place (Patel and Cummings), and I get the feeling there’s a bit of a hoist going on between Boris and Sunak. Meanwhile more and more bizarre restrictions seems to be popping up everywhere, with no form of strategy evident apart from “let’s beat the virus”.

If I were the Queen I’d be bursting into tears.
I don't think any potential protests over Covid restrictions will reach this level, but I've seen studies find that sustained (peaceful) protests can bring down a Government or force them to concede to demands without needing more than 3.5% of the subject country's population to be involved. After the pandemic though there are plenty of matters both on and off this subject that could trigger such protest levels.
 

Howardh

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On a similar note, it seems that whilst the Welsh lockdowns means people can’t enter or leave the areas concerned (more having been added today), apparently it doesn’t apply to English people!

I’m convinced there’s going to be serious trouble. I sensed a notable tension out and about this evening, and this is in a fairly docile part of the country. From overhearing conversations today people are sick of being treated like children, by a government utterly failing to deal with this, and who have made so many stupid slip-ups it’s farcical.

Part of me wonders if this government is actually collapsing. There’s a few of them that are either so out of their depth now it’s farcical (Williamson and Hancock for starters), unhinged in the first place (Patel and Cummings), and I get the feeling there’s a bit of a hoist going on between Boris and Sunak. Meanwhile more and more bizarre restrictions seems to be popping up everywhere, with no form of strategy evident apart from “let’s beat the virus”.

If I were the Queen I’d be bursting into tears.
Yes, it's noticable the unease amongst the ERG - the Brexit hard-liners - that they fought tooth and nail to get freedom back from the EU and now Their Beloved Leader (and his side-kick Johnson) are singlehandedly removing every freedom we've got. They want parliament to have a vote on future measures, and they could well vote against their own party if they think Johninngs has gone too far. Think their lead is 85 which there may well be over half of those dissenting.

It's gonna be an interesting autumn, and the Tories know how to write a letter. But I'll admit, I never thought I'd side with the ERG.
 

43066

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Yes, it's noticable the unease amongst the ERG - the Brexit hard-liners - that they fought tooth and nail to get freedom back from the EU and now Their Beloved Leader (and his side-kick Johnson) are singlehandedly removing every freedom we've got. They want parliament to have a vote on future measures, and they could well vote against their own party if they think Johninngs has gone too far. Think their lead is 85 which there may well be over half of those dissenting.

It's gonna be an interesting autumn, and the Tories know how to write a letter. But I'll admit, I never thought I'd side with the ERG.

That’s an interesting point.

I suspect many of those who voted for Brexit despise the actions of the current government for reasons which coincide almost perfectly with why they voted as they did in 2016.

We always knew Johnson was a weasel, who only ever embraced Brexit for tactical reasons, we just never believed he was quite such an incompetent weasel!
 

Howardh

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That’s an interesting point.

I suspect many of those who voted for Brexit despise the actions of the current government for reasons which coincide almost perfectly with why they voted as they did in 2016.

We always knew Johnson was a weasel, who only ever embraced Brexit for tactical reasons, we just never believed he was quite such an incompetent weasel!
If they haven't already, Daily Mail readers will have their knives out for Johnson. I try to avoid that paper, but sometimes I just want a laugh and it does cheer me up when they start to demolish their very own! A virus rampant, and Brexit is the next bus along. Not to mention tax-rises and pension decreases on the way....
 

bramling

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That’s an interesting point.

I suspect many of those who voted for Brexit despise the actions of the current government for reasons which coincide almost perfectly with why they voted as they did in 2016.

We always knew Johnson was a weasel, who only ever embraced Brexit for tactical reasons, we just never believed he was quite such an incompetent weasel!

This is all the outcome of a political system which has become so badly broken over the last couple of decades, for various reasons. BJ was always a maverick choice, just like seems to be part of the job description for Mayor of London, however this has come back to bite as he’s been found very seriously wanting.

But what was the alternative? The choice of leadership talent on both sides was utterly sewer-grade.

I am increasingly coming to the view that this government is now starting to unravel. Some of the key appointments are so utterly ineffective it’s starting to get to the point where the machinery of government is grinding to a halt. Hancock was giggling like a child on the news yesterday, and with education turning into farce where is Gavin Williamson to be seen?

I wouldn’t be at all surprised to find there’s all sorts going on behind the scenes that we don’t know about, probably revolving around Sunak.

They’ve lost control of this now.

One wonders if Priti Patel is busy procuring water canons behind the scenes?
 
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Anyone going to/been to a protest?

I'm heading off to Trafalgar Square tomorrow. I'll admit I'm slightly put off by the crazies such as Gareth and David Icke and Piers Corbyn. I'm not a conspiracy theorist, but it's long time the world gets some common sense.
 

43066

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This is all the outcome of a political system which has become so badly broken over the last couple of decades, for various reasons. BJ was always a maverick choice, just like seems to be part of the job description for Mayor of London, however this has come back to bite as he’s been found very seriously wanting.

But what was the alternative? The choice of leadership talent on both sides was utterly sewer-grade.

I am increasingly coming to the view that this government is now starting to unravel. Some of the key appointments are so utterly ineffective it’s starting to get to the point where the machinery of government is grinding to a halt. Hancock was giggling like a child on the news yesterday, and with education turning into farce where is Gavin Williamson to be seen?

I wouldn’t be at all surprised to find there’s all sorts going on behind the scenes that we don’t know about, probably revolving around Sunak.

They’ve lost control of this now.

One wonders if Priti Patel is busy procuring water canons behind the scenes?

Its certainly striking how little we see of the PM these days, at a time of deep national crisis. Almost as if it it’s a deliberate damage limitation strategy! Cummings is many things, but he isn’t stupid, and he clearly now regards Johnson as an embarrassing lame duck. And quite rightly!

It was a shocking choice of candidates, for sure, but you’d somehow have expected a little more leadership and gravitas from someone who has been Mayor of London, Foreign Secretary and has had such a high personal profile for so many years (certainly compared to his predecessor, albeit she was more experienced in actual government). Perhaps Hunt would have been a better choice (from a Covid not a Brexit perspective).

Hancock is the worst possible person to be in the position he occupies, and is clearly an extreme “locktivist”, to the point where he’s isolating himself from the rest of the cabinet in continuing down the current path.

Sunak seems to be about the best of them! I’m glad he’s had the good sense to go through with winding down the furlough scheme (albeit belatedly!).

Overall, it’s clearly an absolute car crash. I’m still astounded by how quickly Johnson has gone from being a “new broom”, commanding the biggest Tory majority since the 1980s, to such a pathetic low point that I’m sure many of us wonder if TM (let alone Cameron had he stuck around) would have been doing a better job of things.

And they say we get the politicians we deserve...

I don’t even want to think about fate of Brexit, but Johnson has lived and died by it, and must be looking for a political legacy, so will hopefully get it over the line, in terms of a sensible deal. If so that’ll be something to salvage (how confident are we of that!? :))
 
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