Covid : Infection rates v death rates and a possible second wave

[Bikeman78]

Make it seem like the government is doing something? Appease the screaming deluded hordes who think this is some sort of enemy to be defeated? Make Boris seem "tough" on COVID?

All this tends to show is that the suppression strategy doesn't work. We've had face masks, two metres, silly one way systems and so on but the number of infections is allegedly still shooting up. So what's the point?

 

[Bletchleyite]

All this tends to show is that the suppression strategy doesn't work. We've had face masks, two metres, silly one way systems and so on but the number of infections is allegedly still shooting up. So what's the point?

It's not shooting up anything like the way it was in March. The graph is misleading - we have a testing constraint now which means about 4000 cases are being reported per day but it's reckoned there are actually 6000. At the peak about 6000 were being reported but it's reckoned there were actually about 100,000. Quite a difference.

We are back in exponential growth (doubling every 2 weeks) which is dangerous, but it's about half the rate as back then.

 

[jtuk]

What do people think is the reason for latest spike in cases. Since June and July face coverings have been mandatory of transport and in shops and we've had the 1 meter plus rule. We've went through August relatively steady and then bang!

My parents local authority claims that the data is telling them the rise in cases is due to more people mixing in homes, at grassroots sports events and social events. Why would they suddenly cause this high level of transmission now? Folk becoming careless?

Natural consequence of not hiding in a bunker to the same level we were before.

 

[Yew]

It's not shooting up anything like the way it was in March. The graph is misleading - we have a testing constraint now which means about 4000 cases are being reported per day but it's reckoned there are actually 6000. At the peak about 6000 were being reported but it's reckoned there were actually about 100,000. Quite a difference.

We are back in exponential growth (doubling every 2 weeks) which is dangerous, but it's about half the rate as back then.

I don't think that's clear, the growth rates seem consistent with the standard seasonal growth of respiratory illnesses.

 

[initiation]

What do people think is the reason for latest spike in cases. Since June and July face coverings have been mandatory of transport and in shops and we've had the 1 meter plus rule. We've went through August relatively steady and then bang!

My parents local authority claims that the data is telling them the rise in cases is due to more people mixing in homes, at grassroots sports events and social events. Why would they suddenly cause this high level of transmission now? Folk becoming careless?

As Carl Heneghan testified to the parliamentary select committee yesterday, it is standard form to see respiratory infections increase multiple times during Autumn. Why should we expect Covid19 to be any different?



I see the BBC is leading with the story that the PM thinks we are now in the midst of the second wave. If this is it, with barely 1000 people in hospital and 27 people dead today, it is rather pathetic.

 

[bramling]

It was likely to happen until enough people have had it. This doesn't seem to be the simple problem politicians don't understand.

Not just politicians - the news is full of people coming out with stuff like “I think we should lock down for two weeks and really stamp this out”. It’s way too late for that now.

 

[Bikeman78]

Not just politicians - the news is full of people coming out with stuff like “I think we should lock down for two weeks and really stamp this out”. It’s way too late for that now.

Why do they think that would work? The first lockdown did not come close to eradicating the virus. A second/third/fourth will be no different. Unless you can get down to zero cases and then close the borders, it will never work.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 18 Sep 2020 ==

As Carl Heneghan testified to the parliamentary select committee yesterday, it is standard form to see respiratory infections increase multiple times during Autumn. Why should we expect Covid19 to be any different?

Agreed. Also the kids have gone back to school and are swapping all the normal coughs and colds so now everyone is running around trying to get tested.

 

[brad465]

What do people think is the reason for latest spike in cases. Since June and July face coverings have been mandatory of transport and in shops and we've had the 1 meter plus rule. We've went through August relatively steady and then bang!

My parents local authority claims that the data is telling them the rise in cases is due to more people mixing in homes, at grassroots sports events and social events. Why would they suddenly cause this high level of transmission now? Folk becoming careless?

I think a combination of schools returning and a number of office workers being back in their offices. Schools have been back now for nearly 3 weeks, so the effects of this are starting to show. Meanwhile this article from yesterday highlights how the increase in the return to offices has helped get to nearly 2/3 of pre-Covid commuter flow, which has been on a steady incline through August, which will have helped get infection rates going before schools returned:

'Nearly two-thirds' of workers commuting again, says ONS

Some 62% reported commuting to work last week, according to the Office for National Statistics.

www.bbc.co.uk

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) said that 62% of adult workers reported travelling to work last week.

That compares with 36% in late May, soon after the ONS began compiling the figures during lockdown.

 

[Jozhua]

I think it sends a clear message - get on the train and do all your visiting now

That's what I'm doing.

If sit-down restaurants were, the local lockdowns would all have closed them. Only one (Bolton) did.

We're assuming decisions are made purely in regards to the associated risk and not for economic reasons. In Manchester, social distancing has kind of been given up on in most locations.

The trouble with the test figures is that at present they have effectively "hit the ceiling" so cases are "escaping" like they did in March.

Probably not. The ceiling is much higher than it was in March. 200,000 vs 20,000.

Test positive rates in September are 1.5%, vs 0.5% in August, vs 20% in March.

COVID cases are increasing, but this would fall in line with seasonal illness we would expect to see. Case numbers will be significantly higher than in March due to testing. We could very possibly see rates hit 5-figures by the end of the month.

What remains to be seen, is the impact this will have on hospitals and deaths.

 

[Bantamzen]

It was likely to happen until enough people have had it. This doesn't seem to be the simple problem politicians don't understand.

Is the correct answer. Viruses do not have any respect for half-arsed political "solutions".

 

[LAX54]

There was a Post on FB yesterday or the day before, someone fairly local complaining that their son/daughter had been sent home from school unwell, seem they had a temperature, but could not get a test for love nor money anywhere, even if it meant travelling, the post had a picture of the thermometer it was reading 41.6 or 106/107F ! The first place I would be looking would be A&E or the GP or even 999 with that reading.
Now is this because it has been drummed into so many people that a 'high temp' is Covid? and as such thats all they think, everything else goes out the window !

 

[adc82140]

My diagnosis with that temperature is a broken thermometer. With a temperature that high they would have collapsed, been taken to A&E and would be fighting for their life, if not dead.

 

[Bantamzen]

There was a Post on FB yesterday or the day before, someone fairly local complaining that their son/daughter had been sent home from school unwell, seem they had a temperature, but could not get a test for love nor money anywhere, even if it meant travelling, the post had a picture of the thermometer it was reading 41.6 or 106/107F ! The first place I would be looking would be A&E or the GP or even 999 with that reading.
Now is this because it has been drummed into so many people that a 'high temp' is Covid? and as such thats all they think, everything else goes out the window !

And this was at a school? Ye Gods, what are they teaching kids these days if they can't figure out what was really wrong with that reading?

 

[Bletchleyite]

Probably not. The ceiling is much higher than it was in March. 200,000 vs 20,000.

It's a demonstrable fact that they have. There are people who have symptoms who cannot obtain a test and thus are not in the stats.

They might not be that far above (ZOE reckons on about 6000 cases vs. 4000 positive tests) unlike in March (100,000 estimated cases vs. 6000 positive tests) but they are definitely above.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 19 Sep 2020 ==

And this was at a school? Ye Gods, what are they teaching kids these days if they can't figure out what was really wrong with that reading?

41.6 is very high, but it's possible if you spend 5 minute Googling. Are you reading the 100F and thinking that's boiling point? If so, boiling point is 100C, not 100F.

Typically, those forehead thermometers read low, not high (I seem to read 35 most of the time, though I actually do run a bit low on a proper one, typically 36 rather than the usual 36.5) so if you manage to get over 40 on one the person pretty much does have a temperature. And a temperature is a trigger condition for a test and isolation until a result. So I fail to see anything wrong with what this school has done.

 

[thejuggler]

An insight into where we are at the moment.

Thread by @chrischirp on Thread Reader App

@chrischirp: THREAD: where we are with COVID in the UK and what we should do about it. TLDR: it's not good, but there's hope. We have maybe 2/3 weeks to get cases down. 1/13 Firstly, testing...

threadreaderapp.com

 

[Bantamzen]

41.6 is very high, but it's possible if you spend 5 minute Googling. Are you reading the 100F and thinking that's boiling point? If so, boiling point is 100C, not 100F.

Typically, those forehead thermometers read low, not high (I seem to read 35 most of the time, though I actually do run a bit low on a proper one, typically 36 rather than the usual 36.5) so if you manage to get over 40 on one the person pretty much does have a temperature. And a temperature is a trigger condition for a test and isolation until a result. So I fail to see anything wrong with what this school has done.

No I wasn't thinking boiling point, someone with a temp of 41.6 degrees would be in a very serious situation & certainly not going to school. If a reader is that far out, perhaps it is time to replace it before sending kids home?

 

[LAX54]

And this was at a school? Ye Gods, what are they teaching kids these days if they can't figure out what was really wrong with that reading?

I am assuming sent home 'not feeling well' and it was the parent that had the (electronic) thermometer, it does not say

 

[Howardh]

I am assuming sent home 'not feeling well' and it was the parent that had the (electronic) thermometer, it does not say

A school wouldn't publicise a pupils temperature or health.

 

[LAX54]

A school wouldn't publicise a pupils temperature or health.

so therefore it was the parent, still at a loss as why they just kept trying to 'get a test' when the temp was alarmingly high, and beyond what might be pointing towards a 'virus'

 

[Bletchleyite]

so therefore it was the parent, still at a loss as why they just kept trying to 'get a test' when the temp was alarmingly high, and beyond what might be pointing towards a 'virus'

Because that's what the guidance says. You can't blame them for following it.

 

[adc82140]

Because that's what the guidance says. You can't blame them for following it.

The guidance needs urgently updating. Keep the bit about taste and smell, change the fever one to abnormally high (there are some people whose temperatures go up at the slightest hint of a cold), and change the cough one to persistent cough not associated with a runny or blocked nose or sneezing.

 

[LAX54]

Because that's what the guidance says. You can't blame them for following it.

Is that not where we are going wrong, you only have to google 41.6 or similar, to be told, get to hospital asap! not fart about moaning on FB you cannot secure a covid test, and it's not good enough !
Covid does NOT include a runny or snuffly nose, sneezing, nor a 'normal' cough, it needs to be a persistant DRY cough,

 

[johnnychips]

When I got my temperature taken after a sweaty walk to work, it was 34.8 degrees. I should have either been placed in a sleeping bag next to someone or put in a warm bath while the ambulance came . I think they threw the thermometer away.

 

[trebor79]

When I got my temperature taken after a sweaty walk to work, it was 34.8 degrees. I should have either been placed in a sleeping bag next to someone or put in a warm bath while the ambulance came . I think they threw the thermometer away.

My record is 32.8 at the barbers. She still uses it, it still produces random numbers.

 

[adc82140]

Back at the start in March I arrived at work, spent 10 minutes outside sorting out an errant data cable in sub zero temperatures, and then failed to record a reading on any thermometer. It took a full quarter hour to warm me up enough to register a reading.

 

[bramling]

No I wasn't thinking boiling point, someone with a temp of 41.6 degrees would be in a very serious situation & certainly not going to school. If a reader is that far out, perhaps it is time to replace it before sending kids home?

We both had a lovely one - temperature tested upon entering a hotel this evening, both came out 36.5. Lady on reception then said “oh dear another half degree and we wouldn’t have been able to book you in”.

Then the next person came out with something similar.

Seems like another farce, but it would have been just great to have been stuck without a hotel room 300 miles from home at 2100 in the evening!

 

[adc82140]

I'd have liked to ask why not as normal body temperature is 37c. Is this hotel only booking in people who are hypothermic?

 

[Bletchleyite]

I'd have liked to ask why not as normal body temperature is 37c. Is this hotel only booking in people who are hypothermic?

Well, quite! Though I'd be OK, my actual core temperature (taken with a proper old mercury thermometer in my gob) is between 36 and 36.5. People do vary a bit (some say that skinny people tend to run higher temperatures - their bodies use more energy to maintain that higher temperature).

 

[johnnychips]

I just had a quick Google, and of course all the results came out different. However it did seem to agree that 38 degrees is a fever.

 

[RomeoCharlie71]

We both had a lovely one - temperature tested upon entering a hotel this evening, both came out 36.5. Lady on reception then said “oh dear another half degree and we wouldn’t have been able to book you in”.

Then the next person came out with something similar.

Seems like another farce, but it would have been just great to have been stuck without a hotel room 300 miles from home at 2100 in the evening!

The forehead temperature gauges seem to be very unreliable. I had my forehead zapped at the GP earlier this week which read high, and then via my ear. The ear reading was a whole degree Celsius lower.

The Doc said anything over 38°c is considered a fever.