What routes will close as a result of potential nationalisation?

[Bletchleyite]

Another 1980's style bonfire of the rolling stock fleets perhaps.

There's a DMU shortage so short of electrification not those.

However, with reduced commuting I would expect to see the end of all the ex-BR EMU fleets plus some of the early post-privatisation ones such as the Junipers.

 

[yorksrob]

There's a DMU shortage so short of electrification not those.

However, with reduced commuting I would expect to see the end of all the ex-BR EMU fleets plus some of the early post-privatisation ones such as the Junipers.

At least there aren't any lovely HAP units to go this time around.

 

[Bletchleyite]

At least there aren't any lovely HAP units to go this time around.

I never travelled on one, but yes, to be fair, other than the Wessies the ex-BR EMU fleet is all Mk3 based and fairly rubbish, so I doubt anyone will mourn its passing.

 

[yorksrob]

I never travelled on one, but yes, to be fair, other than the Wessies the ex-BR EMU fleet is all Mk3 based and fairly rubbish, so I doubt anyone will mourn its passing.

The 455's will have had a good innings by then.

 

[Iskra]

Not sure why Falmouth is being brought up on this thread - it's a good example of a line that has been invested in, seen a frequency increase to catch up with increasing passenger numbers.

It's short, simple, self-contained, it works without any grandiose long distance aspirations - each train only does around twenty miles each hour but I don't think you could squeeze it down to provide a half hourly service with just one unit (doing forty miles in an hour, given the intermediate stops etc - unless you ran half the journeys as non-stop), so it's probably just as well to leave it as it is.



Oh, there's plenty of lines in this part of England that could lose passenger services without many people being affected - you could either just give up on irrelevancies like Goole - Knottingley or you could replace lines with irregular frequencies (Pontefract Baghill, Brigg, Skipton - Lancaster, Doncaster - Lincoln) with just one train a day/week.

A few rural stations could be cut back to just a peak time service, even if the line frequency isn't affected, to free up a unit and save a few quid. You could reduce Edale to just a weekend service and still retain 90% of the passengers.

I don't see any lines closing altogether but there are certainly a few stations or lines that I'd be worried about if I lived there.

Lancaster-Skipton and Doncaster-Lincoln were both going through a renaissance pre-Covid. They are quite popular from my experiences of travelling on them and provide useful links. The Bentham line is useful for all the WCRC moves too, that would otherwise have to congest other lines. Doncaster-Lincoln is very useful when the ECML frequently breaks. Even the Pontefract Baghill services have been reasonably loaded for a limited and obscure service when I have used it.

I would totally agree with closing Knottingley-Goole (officially) and Brigg, but it's disappointing to see many people on this thread naively wielding axes to lines they clearly don't use, that aren't that badly patronised.

 

[Bletchleyite]

I can see reductions in rolling stock before major cuts in services. Elimination of excess old or uneconomic stock to save on maintenance and running costs. 12 coach trains to be 8 or 10. 6 coach to go back to 3.

I'd expect that in the South East - an all week (probably including Sundays) 8 car Saturday timetable, with maybe 5 or so extra units to strengthen a few peak services in each direction to 12. No longer would there be huge numbers of units on Camden Bank all day, and I suspect LNR's 319s have turned their last wheel in service.

This will cause issues for TOCs that have ordered fixed formation 12 car sets (Thameslink) and those who have ordered stock that will work either in 120 or 240m lengths (LNR and GA) as 120m will be too short but 240m too long in many cases. The classic 80m 4-car Southern EMU seems to be an excellent fit to the situation.

 

[JonathanH]

I never travelled on one, but yes, to be fair, other than the Wessies the ex-BR EMU fleet is all Mk3 based and fairly rubbish, so I doubt anyone will mourn its passing.

Not true - Networkers and 323s are ex-BR and not Mk3 based.

I suspect LNR's 319s have turned their last wheel in service.

Not true - the Camden railcam feed shows that there are a number of rakes of 319s parked up in Camden sidings off services in the peak this morning.

 

[Bald Rick]

Yep, pretty much the entire LNW fleet is in service. Whether that continues post the need to social distance is another matter.

@Bletchleyite’s point is valid though. I suspect WMTs Class 153 fleet have turned their last wheel in service, for WMT at least.

 

[ChiefPlanner]

Not true - Networkers and 323s are ex-BR and not Mk3 based.


Not true - the Camden railcam feed shows that there are a number of rakes of 319s parked up in Camden sidings off services in the peak this morning.

We have heard this "Saturday timetable and Camden" a few times now. Remember - we still have social distancing in place - so important to spread out (as reccomended by all 4 Anglia conductors I travelled with today - spread out and use window seats was the message) - I came back on the 1800 Farringdon - Bedford 12 car which was almost back to old times - second stage of green on the train loading indicators) , and the pre peak build up at Liverpool St was a lot busier than noted recently. Morning observations at SAC show the peak is getting busier.

Until there is confidence on social distancing , I cannot see train formations s being taken off pro-tem. I may be wrong of course.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 15 Sep 2020 ==

Yep, pretty much the entire LNW fleet is in service. Whether that continues post the need to social distance is another matter.

@Bletchleyite’s point is valid though. I suspect WMTs Class 153 fleet have turned their last wheel in service, for WMT at least.

I went to Felixstowe today - urgent book buying business - the 3 car Stadler was a joy - the one time sole 153 would have been a disaster. Loadings good and nicely spaced.

 

[HST43257]

Earlier the hope valley was mentioned. Could New Mills Central terminators extend to Chinley and could Dore, Grindleford & Hathersage have a shuttle service into Sheffield? The New Mills services get to their destination at xx50 and don’t leave until xx34. RTT shows it as a 7 minute journey time from Central to Chinley, meaning xx58 arrival and xx26 departure. For the Sheffield to Hathersage section, you can have a simple 1 unit shuttle service. 18 minute journey time with 12 minute layovers. This may be less at Hathersage and more at Sheffield or vice versa - depends on pathing. I haven’t looked at track diagrams for turnbacks/crossovers but surely these things are possible on weekdays in the off peak?

 

[Bletchleyite]

Earlier the hope valley was mentioned. Could New Mills Central terminators extend to Chinley and could Dore, Grindleford & Hathersage have a shuttle service into Sheffield? The New Mills services get to their destination at xx50 and don’t leave until xx34. RTT shows it as a 7 minute journey time from Central to Chinley, meaning xx58 arrival and xx26 departure. Surely this is possible?

You'd save 1 unit/crew and make a right mess of everything though?

 

[Killingworth]

Earlier the hope valley was mentioned. Could New Mills Central terminators extend to Chinley and could Dore, Grindleford & Hathersage have a shuttle service into Sheffield? The New Mills services get to their destination at xx50 and don’t leave until xx34. RTT shows it as a 7 minute journey time from Central to Chinley, meaning xx58 arrival and xx26 departure. For the Sheffield to Hathersage section, you can have a simple 1 unit shuttle service. 18 minute journey time with 12 minute layovers. This may be less at Hathersage and more at Sheffield or vice versa - depends on pathing. I haven’t looked at track diagrams for turnbacks/crossovers but surely these things are possible on weekdays in the off peak?

Apart from the fact that the Hope Valley Capacity Scheme is already needed to improve things between Dore Station Junction and Earles Sidings. Freight!! Limestone and cement.

At the Dore end we'd love to have a regular hourly service into Sheffield, not some of the gaps of 2 hours or more we have at present. Hopefully we'll get that by 2023/4. Half hourly like there is from New Mills would open a big extra market, but that's unlikely to happen any time soon.

30 years ago there was a shuttle service from Sheffield to New Mills, change for next shuttle to Manchester. Since that was resolved loadings had gone up fourfold.

 

[tbtc]

Doncaster-Lincoln is very useful when the ECML frequently breaks

How often does it "break" though?

Plus, with bi-mode stock running most services on the Doncaster - Grantham - Peterborough line, there becomes less need for a diversionary route (since a lot of the problems on the ECML have been due to electrification issues, so if self powered trains are able to do 100mph on the regular route then the trundle through Lincoln becomes less necessary)

it's disappointing to see many people on this thread naively wielding axes to lines they clearly don't use, that aren't that badly patronised

Sure, but that's the thing, people aren't using these lines - you're effectively acknowledging it yourself by bringing up a line that's useful to have for occasional rail tour moves (Bentham) and a line that is occasionally used for diversions (Doncaster - Lincoln) rather than citing large passenger numbers at any stations etc

 

[Grecian 1998]

Newquay is definitely the poor relation of all the Devon and Cornwall branches. Partly no doubt because of the long journey time, and partly because Par is not a massive traffic generator on its own, so these factors combine to make it fairly unattractive to locals.

Exactly this. St Ives is a somewhat exceptional line - it's something of a park & ride for motorists due to St Ives's narrow streets. With 1 train in operation over 4 miles of track at 30mph max it can't be that expensive to maintain. Truro - Falmouth seems well-used all year round. Plymouth - Gunnislake will be well-used by locals as long as there remains no direct road access from Gunnislake and the Bere Peninsula into Plymouth. Liskeard - Looe is relatively close to Plymouth and can't be too expensive to run with 8 miles at 30mph max (albeit flooding can be an issue).

Par-Newquay does sterling business when there's a demand for long distance travel into Newquay. The problem is that's limited to a few Fridays-Saturdays a year. A line to Truro or St Austell would be much more useful for locals. My 1991 Rail Atlas indicates BR wanted to reopen a former freight route from St Austell to St Dennis to allow a Newquay - St Austell service instead and close St Dennis to Goonbarrow Jct. Whilst it would involve closing 3 tiny stations (albeit they don't have a service on summer Saturdays anyway), it would have been a more direct and useful service. However it never happened.

There do seem to be a few key points for more successful rural railways with no freight to pay the way:

1. Serve two places with demand for travel between them all year round.

2. Have a reasonably frequent service, ideally at least hourly, and no more than 2 hourly.

3. Offer end to end journey times which are ideally competitive with the car, but are at least faster than a bus.

4. Relatively cheap infrastructure.

The last two points do generally depend on the infrastructure, which in turn depend on how long the line is and to what standards it was built. Barnstaple - Exeter for instance scores fairly highly on all points but is helped by the fact it was originally a through route to the North Devon coast and built to reasonably fast standards. Journey times of 65 minutes from Barnstaple to Exeter Central are reasonably competitive with the A377 (one of the most dangerous roads in Devon) and could be increased if Salmonpool or Eggesford level crossings are ever improved. That said the line is somewhat susceptible to flooding. I have read that BR wanted to shut the line in the 1960s but this was rejected as it would be politically untenable to leave North Devon with no railways.

Lines with 3-4 trains each way per day which struggle to average 30 mph are always more likely to struggle. Whilst I haven't travelled on it, the Conwy Valley line seems to fail on most of the above - a 3 hourly service with slow average speeds between two fairly small towns, major flooding problems and a 2 mile tunnel.

A number of rural routes which were slated for closure under the Beeching Report but survived have retained all their stations as there was no intention to retain the route, so no attempt to close stations, whereas other rural routes such as the Heart of Wessex line did have station closures which no-one seems in a hurry to reopen. I have wondered if it would benefit long rural lines to close some of the smaller stations, or at least reduce services to them in order to focus on journey time reductions. There are 27 stations in 90 miles between Llanelli and Craven Arms and 16 stations in 45 miles between Barrow and Whitehaven. I haven't travelled on either of these routes save for Whitehaven - St Bees, but is it vital for all trains to serve all these stations (bar Nethertown and Braystones on the latter)? Could any time savings be created by skipping some stops?

In comparison, Barnstaple - Exeter has 11 intermediate stations in 39 miles, but some are only served by a handful of trains due to having no real local population to serve (Portsmouth Arms and Chapelton in particular). Whilst this is partly due to the limitations of the infrastructure if an hourly service is to be provided, the vast majority of passengers are always likely to travel end to end, so this is the market which seems to be prioritised. It seems to work well.

 

[YorksLad12]

Oh, there's plenty of lines in this part of England that could lose passenger services without many people being affected - you could either just give up on irrelevancies like Goole - Knottingley or you could replace lines with irregular frequencies (Pontefract Baghill, Brigg, Skipton - Lancaster, Doncaster - Lincoln) with just one train a day/week.

Is Goole-Knottingley lightly used because there are only three trains per day, or are there only three trains per day because no-one wants to travel that way? Admittedly, you could close one of Whitley Bridge or Hensall and keep the other open as they're close to each other, with low patronage. But what would be saved by closing that route?

Same with Dearne Valley services via Baghill. Both routes used to have slightly higher frequencies, both seem to have fallen through the cracks.

 

[yorksrob]

How often does it "break" though?

Plus, with bi-mode stock running most services on the Doncaster - Grantham - Peterborough line, there becomes less need for a diversionary route (since a lot of the problems on the ECML have been due to electrification issues, so if self powered trains are able to do 100mph on the regular route then the trundle through Lincoln becomes less necessary)



Sure, but that's the thing, people aren't using these lines - you're effectively acknowledging it yourself by bringing up a line that's useful to have for occasional rail tour moves (Bentham) and a line that is occasionally used for diversions (Doncaster - Lincoln) rather than citing large passenger numbers at any stations etc

Plenty of passengers use the Bentham line. For through journeys and local hops.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Plenty of passengers use the Bentham line. For through journeys and local hops.

It could be marketed a lot better, too. "Bentham Line" just sounds awful.

 

[Iskra]

How often does it "break" though?

Plus, with bi-mode stock running most services on the Doncaster - Grantham - Peterborough line, there becomes less need for a diversionary route (since a lot of the problems on the ECML have been due to electrification issues, so if self powered trains are able to do 100mph on the regular route then the trundle through Lincoln becomes less necessary)



Sure, but that's the thing, people aren't using these lines - you're effectively acknowledging it yourself by bringing up a line that's useful to have for occasional rail tour moves (Bentham) and a line that is occasionally used for diversions (Doncaster - Lincoln) rather than citing large passenger numbers at any stations etc

The ECML breaks more frequently than it should and what if an electric Azuma sits down? Or the wires go down. Class 67 Thunderbirds go off lease soon.

I believe both those two lines were doing well pre-covid, hence them both getting frequency increases recently. The additional railtour/diversionary uses are a mere bonus. As usual you are taking a glass half empty approach.

 

[DB]

It could be marketed a lot better, too. "Bentham Line" just sounds awful.

Not sure what else it could be called - that's the largest village on the line.

 

[Iskra]

Is Goole-Knottingley lightly used because there are only three trains per day, or are there only three trains per day because no-one wants to travel that way? Admittedly, you could close one of Whitley Bridge or Hensall and keep the other open as they're close to each other, with low patronage. But what would be saved by closing that route?

Same with Dearne Valley services via Baghill. Both routes used to have slightly higher frequencies, both seem to have fallen through the cracks.

Goole-Knottingley is lightly used because the line is broken, with the service suspended and it won’t be getting fixed anytime soon.

 

[yorksrob]

It could be marketed a lot better, too. "Bentham Line" just sounds awful.

I tend to refer to it as "The Little North Western as most of it was that company at one stage.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Not sure what else it could be called - that's the largest village on the line.

It was originally the "Little North Western" wasn't it?

But some ideas - "North Lancashire and Yorkshire Dales Line", "South Dales Line", "Three Peaks Line" (I know it isn't quite, but it sounds good)...I'm sure a marketeer could come up with something better. High Bentham is a nice enough place, but it just doesn't *sound* nice. Even "Wennington Line" sounds a bit better.

 

[DB]

It was originally the "Little North Western" wasn't it?

But some ideas - "North Lancashire and Yorkshire Dales Line", "South Dales Line", "Three Peaks Line" (I know it isn't quite, but it sounds good)...I'm sure a marketeer could come up with something better. High Bentham is a nice enough place, but it just doesn't *sound* nice. Even "Wennington Line" sounds a bit better.

Little North Western was via the Lune Valley, wasn't it? The current line is only part of that.

Not sure that any made-up name would stick.

 

[yorksrob]

Little North Western was via the Lune Valley, wasn't it? The current line is only part of that.

Not sure that any made-up name would stick.

The current line between Skipton and Wennington was, so the larger part of it.

 

[YorksLad12]

Goole-Knottingley is lightly used because the line is broken, with the service suspended and it won’t be getting fixed anytime soon.

It's broken *now*, but it wasn't last year. My question stands.

 

[tbtc]

Is Goole-Knottingley lightly used because there are only three trains per day, or are there only three trains per day because no-one wants to travel that way?

It doesn't serve anywhere significant between Knottingley and Goole - the settlements it does stop at are a stone's throw from the M62 as it is, so rail is going to struggle to be competitive (without throwing significantly more resources at the route - and if you have that kind of spare units/staff then there are dozens of lines that are more deserving)

Plenty of passengers use the Bentham line. For through journeys and local hops.

• Giggleswick - 9,962 passengers pa
• Clapham - 6,576 passengers pa
• Bentham - 26,424 passengers pa
• Wennington - 4,768 passengers pa

...none of the intermediate stations seem particularly busy to me, considering the frequency. Those figures add up to only around sixty departing passengers a day, spread between four stations, spread between several trains per day - happy to be proved wrong, mind.

The ECML breaks more frequently than it should and what if an electric Azuma sits down? Or the wires go down. Class 67 Thunderbirds go off lease soon

How often do these things happen though? Daily? Weekly? Monthly?

Keeping a rural line open because you don't want to maintain the lease on a couple of Thunderbird locos?

I believe both those two lines were doing well pre-covid, hence them both getting frequency increases recently

A number of lines have had/ were due to get frequency increases in the recent franchises, but part of that was due to the box ticking exercise where winning bidders tried to prove that they were listening to local stakeholders etc etc

You don't win a tender by promising to concentrate on the "core", you win it by scattering baubles at the fringes, there's a lot of votes in that kind of thing

As usual you are taking a glass half empty approach

Yeah, that's probably fair, but a lot of people on here are pretending that the glass is still totally full, rather than least accepting it's half full at best

I think we've had good times for so long that it's understandable some people are in denial about what cuts would look like - e.g. people who are also bus enthusiasts have at least some perspective on the grim reality of seeing long established services reduced/ chopped, however much you may want to protest about them being "socially essential" (or whatever buzz phrase) - the boom years allowed the railway to carry on with profligate spending - no incentive to rein in costs (fifty billion quid debt for Network Rail?) - which makes it horribly uncompetitive for the future that lies ahead.

 

[DB]

• Giggleswick - 9,962 passengers pa
• Clapham - 6,576 passengers pa
• Bentham - 26,424 passengers pa
• Wennington - 4,768 passengers pa

...none of the intermediate stations seem particularly busy to me, considering the frequency. Those figures add up to only around sixty departing passengers a day, spread between four stations, spread between several trains per day - happy to be proved wrong, mind.

You are ignoring the numbers between the Aire valley stations, and Lancaster.

 

[yorksrob]

It doesn't serve anywhere significant between Knottingley and Goole - the settlements it does stop at are a stone's throw from the M62 as it is, so rail is going to struggle to be competitive (without throwing significantly more resources at the route - and if you have that kind of spare units/staff then there are dozens of lines that are more deserving)

• Giggleswick - 9,962 passengers pa
• Clapham - 6,576 passengers pa
• Bentham - 26,424 passengers pa
• Wennington - 4,768 passengers pa

...none of the intermediate stations seem particularly busy to me, considering the frequency. Those figures add up to only around sixty departing passengers a day, spread between four stations, spread between several trains per day - happy to be proved wrong, mind.



How often do these things happen though? Daily? Weekly? Monthly?

Keeping a rural line open because you don't want to maintain the lease on a couple of Thunderbird locos?



A number of lines have had/ were due to get frequency increases in the recent franchises, but part of that was due to the box ticking exercise where winning bidders tried to prove that they were listening to local stakeholders etc etc

You don't win a tender by promising to concentrate on the "core", you win it by scattering baubles at the fringes, there's a lot of votes in that kind of thing



Yeah, that's probably fair, but a lot of people on here are pretending that the glass is still totally full, rather than least accepting it's half full at best

I think we've had good times for so long that it's understandable some people are in denial about what cuts would look like - e.g. people who are also bus enthusiasts have at least some perspective on the grim reality of seeing long established services reduced/ chopped, however much you may want to protest about them being "socially essential" (or whatever buzz phrase) - the boom years allowed the railway to carry on with profligate spending - no incentive to rein in costs (fifty billion quid debt for Network Rail?) - which makes it horribly uncompetitive for the future that lies ahead.

It's really not all about the intermediate stations though. There are plenty of passengers who use it between places beyond Long Preston and Carnforth.

 

[bramling]

Plenty of passengers use the Bentham line. For through journeys and local hops.

Surely there’s scope for interpretation of what plenty of passengers means. Each train may be well loaded, but the whole day’s service in each direction amounts to about one Thameslink train. I wouldn’t advocate closing Bentham as it has a few things going for it like no signal boxes, however routes with a handful of Sprinters a day are never going to compare well.

 

[Iskra]

Surely there’s scope for interpretation of what plenty of passengers means. Each train may be well loaded, but the whole day’s service in each direction amounts to about one Thameslink train. I wouldn’t advocate closing Bentham as it has a few things going for it like no signal boxes, however routes with a handful of Sprinters a day are never going to compare well.

It’s 17 miles long. There are plenty of longer routes that carry less passengers.