What routes will close as a result of potential nationalisation?

[HST43257]

Assuming long term nationalisation happens soon, the government/DfT will want to make the most out of good routes and they would probably want to open new ones as well. However, they also will probably want to get rid of highly unprofitable services. Does anyone have any thoughts on which lines these could be?

 

[GRALISTAIR]

Don’t think it will happen. Too politically sensitive

 

[bramling]

Assuming long term nationalisation happens soon, the government/DfT will want to make the most out of good routes and they would probably want to open new ones as well. However, they also will probably want to get rid of highly unprofitable services. Does anyone have any thoughts on which lines these could be?

I don’t think it will happen as it’s too politically sensitive.

However the obvious starting point would be those routes who see only a handful of services per day, especially longer routes or those which are expensive to maintain. Central Wales, Conwy Valley, Whitby, Stranraer, Wigan to Kirkby are some obvious ones, especially as most of these carry no other traffic.

Once you strip out the Welsh and Scottish ones where it’s even more politically sensitive, it doesn’t leave much.

 

[Ianno87]

I don’t think it will happen as it’s too politically sensitive.

However the obvious starting point would be those routes who see only a handful of services per day, especially longer routes or those which are expensive to maintain. Central Wales, Conwy Valley, Whitby, Stranraer, Wigan to Kirkby are some obvious ones, especially as most of these carry no other traffic.

Once you strip out the Welsh and Scottish ones where it’s even more politically sensitive, it doesn’t leave much.

No chance of closing Wigan to Kirkby through two PTE areas (and the potential future link to Skelmersdale). Might just benefit cost-wise from abolishing Rainford Junction box and the token arrangement at some point.

 

[MotCO]

They may not close down services, but is there a chance that they will reduce frequencies on some routes?

 

[Taunton]

The rail network cannot stay preserved in aspic for ever. Why we have Whitby or Looe but not Minehead in the 21st century is something of a chance. We build HS1, 2, and Crossrail, but don't move on from obscure branches (although almost all the passengers seem to have done so).

You only have to see Geoff Marshall's video about Coombe Junction on the Looe line, which they had also done in their All The Stations the previous year. They recognised the same guard as from that prior trip, and asked "who were the last people you had who got out here". "Probably you two" was the reply.

 

[yorksrob]

The rail network cannot stay preserved in aspic for ever. Why we have Whitby or Looe but not Minehead in the 21st century is something of a chance. We build HS1, 2, and Crossrail, but don't move on from obscure branches (although almost all the passengers seem to have done so).

You only have to see Geoff Marshall's video about Coombe Junction on the Looe line, which they had also done in their All The Stations the previous year. They recognised the same guard as from that prior trip, and asked "who were the last people you had who got out here". "Probably you two" was the reply.

That's not really a meaningful example though. Combe Junction halt might not be well used, but the route to Looe certainly is.

Passengers have not moved on from "obscure" branches. If anything they've moved back to them quicker than the commuter lines.

People won't stand for having their well used local links closed, particularly while money is being splurged on HS2, crossrail etc.

 

[S&CLER]

No chance of closing Wigan to Kirkby through two PTE areas (and the potential future link to Skelmersdale). Might just benefit cost-wise from abolishing Rainford Junction box and the token arrangement at some point.

Wigan to Kirkby carries freight as well.

 

[randyrippley]

Settle-Carnforth doesn't really offer anything useful, would be an easy one to close

 

[lyndhurst25]

If money had to be saved I'd expect lightly used freight-only links to be closed first, in preference to passenger lines. Lines that generate no traffic of their own and where the few trains using them could be diverted by another route. At the moment some these appear to be being kept open "just in case" as diversionary routes. e.g. Barrow in Furness avoiding line, South Yorkshire Joint Line, Grimsby to Immingham "Light Railway".

 

[The Planner]

If money had to be saved I'd expect lightly used freight-only links to be closed first, in preference to passenger lines. Lines that generate no traffic of their own and where the few trains using them could be diverted by another route. At the moment some these appear to be being kept open "just in case" as diversionary routes. e.g. Barrow in Furness avoiding line, South Yorkshire Joint Line, Grimsby to Immingham "Light Railway".

I suspect it is freight that would keep some lines open. The costs of keeping some freight routes open is likely to be marginal in terms of upkeep.

 

[Iskra]

Settle-Carnforth doesn't really offer anything useful, would be an easy one to close

Quite a few people would disagree with you there!

It offers a useful Northern cross-pennine link linking multiple interchange stations and the trains are usually fairly busy in my experience.

In terms of closures they would probably just do a few that barely have a service anyway; the Brigg line and close Knottingley-Goole officially for example. Makes it look like they are cost-cutting, saves some money but hardly anyone would be bothered.

 

[Ianno87]

Settle-Carnforth doesn't really offer anything useful, would be an easy one to close

In its favour it has zero signalboxes and only light passenger traffic, probably costs a relatively low amount to maintain (compated to say finding replacement buses). And adds a bit of worth in charter traffic.

Wouldn't be surprised if even the limited service it does have brings in a bit of ORCATS as a theoretical West Yorkshire - Scotland route possibility.

 

[RT4038]

They may not close down services, but is there a chance that they will reduce frequencies on some routes?

Almost bound to be!

 

[haggishunter]

Would the biggest potential saving rather than knocking off 1 or 2 trains where there are only 3 or 4 a day come from not having to match capacity to the previous peak flows on the very busiest commuter routes? So if demand does return to reasonable levels but less 'peaky' it could actually be financially beneficial?

 

[Bletchleyite]

I would say that the ones that would be really under threat are devolved matters now, i.e. Far North, Conwy Valley, Heart of Wales, so I would be surprised to see any of them go.

We might see things like trimming the more pointless stations from the Marston Vale (so no longer having the Bedford-Bletchley local service, just having those served by the EWR expresses, or trimming hardly used stations like New Lane, Bescar Lane and Hoscar) but I can't see any English lines that are that vulnerable. Unless we are talking a Serpell style slashing of services, in which case anyone's guess.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 13 Sep 2020 ==

The rail network cannot stay preserved in aspic for ever. Why we have Whitby or Looe but not Minehead in the 21st century is something of a chance. We build HS1, 2, and Crossrail, but don't move on from obscure branches (although almost all the passengers seem to have done so).

You only have to see Geoff Marshall's video about Coombe Junction on the Looe line, which they had also done in their All The Stations the previous year. They recognised the same guard as from that prior trip, and asked "who were the last people you had who got out here". "Probably you two" was the reply.

Coombe Junction is fairly pointless as a station and you could close it without anyone really noticing (but keeping it costs basically nothing - I seem to recall it's not even lit?), but the rest of the line has a purpose.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 13 Sep 2020 ==

They may not close down services, but is there a chance that they will reduce frequencies on some routes?

I hope they do. We have got too obsessed in the UK with short trains at excessively high frequencies, and at pinch points it makes punctuality terrible. I'd like to see a Taktfahrplan (connectional regular interval timetable) but based around lower frequencies to ensure punctuality. And I think with significant reduction in commuting we will have the South East on a "same every day other than Sunday" type timetable as the rest of the country mostly has, but with a bit of peak lengthening.

 

[irish_rail]

Personally I dont see a single line closure. It makes a mockery of the long term plans to cut the counties carbon footprint.
Costs will instead be cut back by reducing frequencies on certain services, eg does London to bristol really need 4 tph. This is where money can be saved.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Personally I dont see a single line closure. It makes a mockery of the long term plans to cut the counties carbon footprint.
Costs will instead be cut back by reducing frequencies on certain services, eg does London to bristol really need 4 tph. This is where money can be saved.

I don't know much about demand out that way, but I could see some that would make sense, such as dropping to 4 North TPE services per hour (2 to Manchester Piccadilly, 2 to Liverpool Lime St, none to Manchester Airport due to considerably reduced air travel) rather than 6 as making sense. Serve the Ordsall Chord with a local service of some kind, e.g. Stalybridge or Rochdale to Manchester Oxford Road.

 

[HST43257]

I don't know much about demand out that way, but I could see some that would make sense, such as dropping to 4 North TPE services per hour (2 to Manchester Piccadilly, 2 to Liverpool Lime St, none to Manchester Airport due to considerably reduced air travel) rather than 6 as making sense. Serve the Ordsall Chord with a local service of some kind, e.g. Stalybridge or Rochdale to Manchester Oxford Road.

Manchester Airport might have more of a future if smaller airports close. My vision for planes: Overseas flights only. Small airports closed, with a small number remaining. Rail connections to somewhere like Manchester Airport should be increasingly important if having a local airport isn’t quite possible in many places. 2tph is still important I think, even if Northern Powerhouse Rail is also serving it.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Manchester Airport might have more of a future if smaller airports close. My vision for planes: Overseas flights only. Small airports closed, with a small number remaining. Rail connections to somewhere like Manchester Airport should be increasingly important if having a local airport isn’t quite possible in many places. 2tph is still important I think, even if Northern Powerhouse Rail is also serving it.

I think Northern Powerhouse Rail is now unlikely to happen. It can't be funded via borrowing against fares income as HS2 is meant to be, as it will never be profitable.

 

[Meerkat]

Personally I dont see a single line closure. It makes a mockery of the long term plans to cut the counties carbon footprint.

Does it? Replacing a rattling old diesel that doesn’t go anywhere particularly useful with an electric bus that actually goes through towns and villages might tempt more people out of their cars.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 14 Sep 2020 ==

Are there many/any stations that would close and create significant savings by speeding up services enough to drop the number of diagrams required?

 

[Bletchleyite]

Does it? Replacing a rattling old diesel that doesn’t go anywhere particularly useful with an electric bus that actually goes through towns and villages might tempt more people out of their cars.

Which routes are there in England that fit that description? I can't think of very many if any. Scotland and Wales are politically different and so I just can't see any closures there, even the obvious basket cases (Conwy Valley, Heart of Wales, Far North).

The lines that must be most under threat, other than maybe the middle of the Cumbrian Coast, are in Scotland and Wales. Bedford-Bletchley maybe but the actual route (if not pointless stations like Kempston Hardwick) would be saved by EWR.

I can see a frequency thinning being more likely back to say 1990s levels and I see that as a good, not bad, thing.

 

[yorksrob]

Which routes are there in England that fit that description? I can't think of very many if any. Scotland and Wales are politically different and so I just can't see any closures there, even the obvious basket cases (Conwy Valley, Heart of Wales, Far North).

The lines that must be most under threat, other than maybe the middle of the Cumbrian Coast, are in Scotland and Wales. Bedford-Bletchley maybe but the actual route (if not pointless stations like Kempston Hardwick) would be saved by EWR.

I can see a frequency thinning being more likely back to say 1990s levels and I see that as a good, not bad, thing.

Even the middle of the Cumbrian coast gets quite busy at times - and its stations are generally well sited for the centres of population. And of course, the line is of national strategic importance for freight !

 

[Bletchleyite]

Even the middle of the Cumbrian coast gets quite busy at times - and its stations are generally well sited for the centres of population. And of course, the line is of national strategic importance for freight !

Indeed. It was in BR days considered a bit under threat, but as long as Sellafield and associated things are still going on it is not likely to close outright.

What might be more likely is trimming of more pointless stations and replacing having a fast and a slow service on a line with just one. I could see that happening on the Marston Vale - close most of the stations and the remaining ones just served by EWR, perhaps on a 2-hourly skip stop type pattern.

 

[RT4038]

Which routes are there in England that fit that description? I can't think of very many if any. Scotland and Wales are politically different and so I just can't see any closures there, even the obvious basket cases (Conwy Valley, Heart of Wales, Far North).

The lines that must be most under threat, other than maybe the middle of the Cumbrian Coast, are in Scotland and Wales. Bedford-Bletchley maybe but the actual route (if not pointless stations like Kempston Hardwick) would be saved by EWR.

I can see a frequency thinning being more likely back to say 1990s levels and I see that as a good, not bad, thing.

Surely, in spite of this 'politically different', the economics may strike at Wales and Scotland too? Conwy Valley, Central Wales, Stranraer are probably at most risk. In England - Whitby, Barrow-Workington, Newquay, Bridlington-Scarborough, East Suffolk, (Bedford-Bletchley possibly) ?
However, unless things bite really deep, or there is infrastructure failure / expensive renewal, I think it is more likely that services in general are reduced / partially replaced by road services, rather than complete closure.

 

[Bletchleyite]

I'm not sure why the Cornish branches seem to keep coming up - they are probably economically about the best a branch line can get because they're full of tourists, at least in summer.

The other ones are possibly it, yes.

I do wonder about the Conwy Valley if, given that I've spent some time cycling old railway routes during this COVID thing (did Bridgnorth to Ironbridge yesterday), it might actually be more use as a cycle route, ideally properly tarmacced, with the money spent on an hourly clockface Trawscambria route. That said, for most of its length there are parallel minor roads, you don't have to ride on the main road. But I think Wales thinks differently, and so I would be surprised if it was axed - if it was still under English remit, I'd be surprised if it *wasn't*.

 

[Meerkat]

I'm not sure why the Cornish branches seem to keep coming up - they are probably economically about the best a branch line can get because they're full of tourists, at least in summer.

The other ones are possibly it, yes.

I do wonder about the Conwy Valley if, given that I've spent some time cycling old railway routes during this COVID thing (did Bridgnorth to Ironbridge yesterday), it might actually be more use as a cycle route, ideally properly tarmacced, with the money spent on an hourly clockface Trawscambria route. That said, for most of its length there are parallel minor roads, you don't have to ride on the main road. But I think Wales thinks differently, and so I would be surprised if it was axed - if it was still under English remit, I'd be surprised if it *wasn't*.

Opening up the tunnel as a cycling route would probably attract more tourists than the current train service does!
Maybe even give emergency ability to send the buses through it if the pass is shut.

 

[RT4038]

I'm not sure why the Cornish branches seem to keep coming up - they are probably economically about the best a branch line can get because they're full of tourists, at least in summer.

The other ones are possibly it, yes.

I guess because the Newquay (particularly) branch has an infrequent service carrying few passengers and little relevance to the local transport market. Therefore is more likely 'at risk' than say the Cromer or Barnstaple branches.
No point in arguing the toss about individual lines - we'll all have an opinion as to why a favourite one shouldn't be touched, and it won't be our decision anyway!

 

[Bletchleyite]

Opening up the tunnel as a cycling route would probably attract more tourists than the current train service does!
Maybe even give emergency ability to send the buses through it if the pass is shut.

TBH I couldn't see the tunnel staying open, it's the most awkward and costly maintenance item on the whole line, and probably the most likely part, if there's an issue with it, to result in closure.

The bits that often wash away would be reasonably cheap to do as a cycle route - just take parts of them down to ground level so the water washes over them easily.

 

[Meerkat]

TBH I couldn't see the tunnel staying open, it's the most awkward and costly maintenance item on the whole line, and probably the most likely part, if there's an issue with it, to result in closure.

The bits that often wash away would be reasonably cheap to do as a cycle route - just take parts of them down to ground level so the water washes over them easily.

Would it need the same level of maintenance without the risks of trains hitting things, and without the extra stress that trains create?