Covid : Infection rates v death rates and a possible second wave

[DB]

That just doesn’t work when they are getting slaughtered by both sides - some say they didn’t lockdown early enough and shouldn’t be opening up, and others say they are too restrictive. And if Brexit is a disaster the international comparisons will make that very clear.

But they aren't getting slaughtered by both sides, or indeed by either side! A surprisingly high proportion of the population is going along with it, and Labour are proving pretty usless as an opposition. Yes, there has been some criticism but nobody could describe it as being 'slaughtered'.

I really don't think that international comparisons will work either - as it is, the impact of the virus is varying between countries, and they will do their best to spin the situation to claim that the virus is the cause of most of it, even if the economic impact IS a lot worse here than other countries - and the right-wing press will almost certainly be on the same page with this.

 

[keep truckin]

The way I see it, this pandemic is a huge warning - to not take our way of life for granted. I mean about a year ago, during the election time, if a leader or senior MP had said that we'd better get our pandemic response to a high standard, would it really have been a vote winner? It seems Brexit definitely was.

Its about time we took the threats of climate change, nuclear conflict & pandemics more seriously, rather than other populist nonsense. We will recover from Covid 19, but if the polar ice caps melt, we're toast. Planning & cooperation is key.

 

[Meerkat]

But they aren't getting slaughtered by both sides, or indeed by either side! A surprisingly high proportion of the population is going along with it, and Labour are proving pretty usless as an opposition. Yes, there has been some criticism but nobody could describe it as being 'slaughtered'.

I really don't think that international comparisons will work either - as it is, the impact of the virus is varying between countries, and they will do their best to spin the situation to claim that the virus is the cause of most of it, even if the economic impact IS a lot worse here than other countries - and the right-wing press will almost certainly be on the same page with this.

The right wing press that keeps slaying them over Covid?
For any government, anywhere, to come out of Covid with general support would be incredibly lucky, there is no way the Tories deliberately get it wrong to cover a bad Brexit that they are not anticipating. It’s more likely they would try to force an early ‘victory’ over Covid to cover for any Brexit issues and recover from an internationally poor death rate.

 

[yorksrob]

I mean about a year ago, during the election time, if a leader or senior MP had said that we'd better get our pandemic response to a high standard, would it really have been a vote winner? It seems Brexit definitely was.

I think a policy to be self-sufficient in clinical testing and PPE manufacture would have been popular.

 

[DB]

The right wing press that keeps slaying them over Covid?
For any government, anywhere, to come out of Covid with general support would be incredibly lucky, there is no way the Tories deliberately get it wrong to cover a bad Brexit that they are not anticipating. It’s more likely they would try to force an early ‘victory’ over Covid to cover for any Brexit issues and recover from an internationally poor death rate.

Except the right wing press isn't 'slaying' them (you do seem to like this sort of tabloid term) - there's been some criticism, sure, but it's nothing worse than many other governments are getting.

Incompetence may well have accounted for the initial response, but now we have reached a time where this pandemic is useful to them as a diversionary tactic, and they have every incentive to play this card. It is of course a long-standing politician tactic to do this sort of thing.

And as regards trying to force an early 'victory', I really don't know how you think this could cover any Brexit issues - the problem is highly likely to be a tanking economy, and the more they play up the virus risk the more they can blame it for this.

As regards governments coming well out of it, it's increasingly looking like that of Sweden might...

 

[Meerkat]

Except the right wing press isn't 'slaying' them (you do seem to like this sort of tabloid term) - there's been some criticism, sure, but it's nothing worse than many other governments are getting.

Incompetence may well have accounted for the initial response, but now we have reached a time where this pandemic is useful to them as a diversionary tactic, and they have every incentive to play this card. It is of course a long-standing politician tactic to do this sort of thing.

And as regards trying to force an early 'victory', I really don't know how you think this could cover any Brexit issues - the problem is highly likely to be a tanking economy, and the more they play up the virus risk the more they can blame it for this.

As regards governments coming well out of it, it's increasingly looking like that of Sweden might...

I’m sorry, if the conspiracy theory is that they are exagerrating Covid to definitely damage the economy because Brexit might damage the economy then I’m out - that’s just way too far out there.

 

[DB]

I’m sorry, if the conspiracy theory is that they are exagerrating Covid to definitely damage the economy because Brexit might damage the economy then I’m out - that’s just way too far out there.

It's interesting that some people (you are clearly one) use the sneering term 'conspiracy theory' to dismiss anythng you don't agree with, rather than actually engage with the points made.

 

[Meerkat]

It's interesting that some people (you are clearly one) use the sneering term 'conspiracy theory' to dismiss anythng you don't agree with, rather than actually engage with the points made.

In what way isn’t it a conspiracy theory - a fringe opinion that government is allegedly acting secretly against its population And against all its normal political instincts?
The government and civil service leak like sieves - yet all we hear is accusations of incompetence and panic, quite the opposite of an evil scheming long term plan.

 

[DB]

In what way isn’t it a conspiracy theory - a fringe opinion that government is allegedly acting secretly against its population And against all its normal political instincts?

It's not suggested that they've invented a situation - merely that they are taking full advantage of it for their own purposes, as governments often do, and potentially using ot to bury bad news in due course (Brexit likely economic impact). And the fact that the fearmongering seems to be in the process of being hyped up as the deadline for the emergency powers nears reinforces that impression.

You keep saying that it's'against all its normal political instincts' but that's simply not true - the Tories have been displaying authoritarian tendencies for some time.

 

[Meerkat]

It's not suggested that they've invented a situation - merely that they are taking full advantage of it for their own purposes, as governments often do, and potentially using ot to bury bad news in due course (Brexit likely economic impact). And the fact that the fearmongering seems to be in the process of being hyped up as the deadline for the emergency powers nears reinforces that impression.

You keep saying that it's'against all its normal political instincts' but that's simply not true - the Tories have been displaying authoritarian tendencies for some time.

So why was Boris slow to go into lockdown when lots of people were yelling for it?

 

[Bletchleyite]

So why was Boris slow to go into lockdown when lots of people were yelling for it?

He's naturally a libertarian, not an authoritarian. I don't entirely understand what's going on now to be honest - Cummings maybe? Or he was so shook up by contracting it?

Or maybe it's just his ongoing popularity contest with Wee Jimmy Krankie north of the border?

 

[bramling]

So why was Boris slow to go into lockdown when lots of people were yelling for it?

Dithering? Afraid of taking such an unprecedented decision? Terrified of the Ferguson predictions and pressured into it on the basis that things would only get worse if decision not taken, but didn't really want to do it?

 

[Meerkat]

He's naturally a libertarian, not an authoritarian. I don't entirely understand what's going on now to be honest - Cummings maybe? Or he was so shook up by contracting it?

Or maybe it's just his ongoing popularity contest with Wee Jimmy Krankie north of the border?

That raises a very good point! Boris has generally been less restrictive than Sturgeon - is she generously helping Boris cover up Brexit problems? And what are Spain and France covering up?

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 8 Sep 2020 ==

Dithering? Afraid of taking such an unprecedented decision? Terrified of the Ferguson predictions and pressured into it on the basis that things would only get worse if decision not taken, but didn't really want to do it?

All possible, but not supporting the deliberately exagerrating Covid theory.

 

[bramling]

He's naturally a libertarian, not an authoritarian. I don't entirely understand what's going on now to be honest - Cummings maybe? Or he was so shook up by contracting it?

Or maybe it's just his ongoing popularity contest with Wee Jimmy Krankie north of the border?

I do think there's an element of running scared from being out-flanked by her up there. However I think the main issue now is that he's so far down a particular policy route (only a couple of hundred billion pounds spent, plus whatever the longer term economic damage!) that it's difficult for him to comprehend a way of rowing back from it all.

 

[Meerkat]

I do think there's an element of running scared from being out-flanked by her up there. However I think the main issue now is that he's so far down a particular policy route (only a couple of hundred billion pounds spent, plus whatever the longer term economic damage!) that it's difficult for him to comprehend a way of rowing back from it all.

Yet Boris insists the schools have to go back and that people should go back to offices......

 

[bramling]

That raises a very good point! Boris has generally been less restrictive than Sturgeon - is she generously helping Boris cover up Brexit problems? And what are Spain and France covering up?

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 8 Sep 2020 ==

Sturgeon's decisions are easy to explain. First of all I think she's genuinely of the belief that elimination is the most humane policy - naturally it helps that she's not really exposed to the full costs of that policy. But in the background she would dearly love a situation where Scotland is seen to do better than England, especially if Scotland was regarded as having made a good job of things versus England having made a total mess - she'd love nothing more than a situation of "we could have sorted Covid up here were it not for being tied by a Tory government in England", which magically leads to something she holds dear.

 

[DB]

That raises a very good point! Boris has generally been less restrictive than Sturgeon - is she generously helping Boris cover up Brexit problems? And what are Spain and France covering up?

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 8 Sep 2020 ==


All possible, but not supporting the deliberately exagerrating Covid theory.

As I've already said, I think the initial response was just incompetence. However, we've now reached the stage where it is useful to the Tories to have a major distraction from the Brexit handling.

 

[bramling]

Yet Boris insists the schools have to go back and that people should go back to offices......

Pressure from back benchers perhaps?

There's also an element that Boris is simply flapping with the wind, like a ship without its engine. I'm not sure there is a worked-out strategy, we seem to be going wherever the (Covid) road takes us.

I wouldn't dismiss the distraction theory though, going by way of reputation it's exactly the sort of seedy thing Cummings would dream up. I don't think this was ever the plan as such, but it might have become a factor more recently.

 

[thejuggler]

The aim isn't elimination, its zero covid. They aren't the same. One is eradication, the other is a management system. Unfortunately as we are finding the main components of a zero covid regime are simply not in place.

You need

1) a comprehensive convenient testing regime. Being sent for a test hours away is neither.
2) a test which gives a result quickly. Days isn't quick.
3) An effective track and trace system. Doesn't exist
4) Isolation of infected individuals. Can't happen without 1,2 and 3.

I'm afraid the spikes we are seeing won't be going down anytime soon and the only response seems to be mixed messaging on restrictions.

 

[DB]

The aim isn't elimination, its zero covid. They aren't the same. One is eradication, the other is a management system. Unfortunately as we are finding the main components of a zero covid regime are simply not in place.

But what is the purpose of a management system aimed at keeping cases as low as possible if it's not elimination?

 

[trebor79]

Yet Boris insists the schools have to go back and that people should go back to offices......

First sensible things he's said or done for a long time. I was very pleased that despite obvious pressure from certain elements, he didn't abandon school opening again.

But what is the purpose of a management system aimed at keeping cases as low as possible if it's not elimination?

One would assume to avoid a collapse in the health service. But we are a million miles away from that at the moment.

I can't work it out. The most logical conclusion I can come to is that the government is rudderless as nobody knows what the overall strategy is (because there isn't one), so are doing what they think is best.

 

[Bantamzen]

Pressure from back benchers perhaps?

There's also an element that Boris is simply flapping with the wind, like a ship without its engine. I'm not sure there is a worked-out strategy, we seem to be going wherever the (Covid) road takes us.

I wouldn't dismiss the distraction theory though, going by way of reputation it's exactly the sort of seedy thing Cummings would dream up. I don't think this was ever the plan as such, but it might have become a factor more recently.

Indeed, and I'm going to make a bold prediction. If BoJo & Co get a no deal Brexit over the line, early next year there will be a sudden reverse in covid-phobia and we will all be encouraged to "Get Britain Moving Again" & "Let's Make Britain Great", in an attempt to make the association between Brexit and beating the virus.

Mark my words.....

 

[Cowley]

Indeed, and I'm going to make a bold prediction. If BoJo & Co get a no deal Brexit over the line, early next year there will be a sudden reverse in covid-phobia and we will all be encouraged to "Get Britain Moving Again" & "Let's Make Britain Great", in an attempt to make the association between Brexit and beating the virus.

Mark my words.....

I’ve got to say that I agree with this theory probably the most.
To me it all seems like an attempt to set up the narrative as best as they can to bury what’s really happening in the confusion, but I guess we’ll have to take a look back in a years time to see the overall picture as currently it’s a bit like the fog of war.

 

[Meerkat]

Sturgeon's decisions are easy to explain. First of all I think she's genuinely of the belief that elimination is the most humane policy - naturally it helps that she's not really exposed to the full costs of that policy. But in the background she would dearly love a situation where Scotland is seen to do better than England, especially if Scotland was regarded as having made a good job of things versus England having made a total mess - she'd love nothing more than a situation of "we could have sorted Covid up here were it not for being tied by a Tory government in England", which magically leads to something she holds dear.

But that would imply she genuinely thinks the restrictions are the best policy, yet we are expected to believe that Boris’ lesser restrictions are a distraction.
It just doesn’t add up.

 

[Bantamzen]

But that would imply she genuinely thinks the restrictions are the best policy, yet we are expected to believe that Boris’ lesser restrictions are a distraction.
It just doesn’t add up.

Sturgeon has as many agendas in play as Johnson, albeit for different goals but agendas all the same.

 

[Bantamzen]

Is that realistic when spread is exponential? You would have to go full lockdown to stop it at that point, considering the delay.
The PR problem is that having a policy based on an acceptable level of hospitalisations is a policy based on an acceptable level of deaths. And whilst sensible people accept this there is a large and noisy group that just won’t accept it (see ranting about ‘you can’t put a price on a human life blah blah’)

However hospitalisation rates are not exponential, demonstrated here and in other countries.

We should just accept people dying in hospital corridors in large numbers?

That was the message the first time around, and frankly most of us are fed up & jaded of these doom mongering messages, especially when they are based on dodgy evidence. Here see for yourself, data for France (as an example) from the WHO. See a problem with your messaging yet?

COVID-19 cases | WHO COVID-19 dashboard

The latest data for coronavirus (COVID-19) cases from the WHO COVID-19 dashboard.

covid19.who.int

 

[Meerkat]

However hospitalisation rates are not exponential, demonstrated here and in other countries.



That was the message the first time around, and frankly most of us are fed up & jaded of these doom mongering messages, especially when they are based on dodgy evidence. Here see for yourself, data for France (as an example) from the WHO. See a problem with your messaging yet?

COVID-19 cases | WHO COVID-19 dashboard

The latest data for coronavirus (COVID-19) cases from the WHO COVID-19 dashboard.

covid19.who.int

What am I supposed to see from that French data?
And did I imagine the health service being under massive pressure earlier in the year, the Italian and New York Health Systems in dire trouble, and the French putting patients on trains to relieve the pressure?

 

[Bantamzen]

What am I supposed to see from that French data?
And did I imagine the health service being under massive pressure earlier in the year, the Italian and New York Health Systems in dire trouble, and the French putting patients on trains to relieve the pressure?

Are you really being serious? France has a bigger increase in cases, yet deaths remain at a very low level. Surely that counters your "people dying in hospital corridors" rhetoric?

 

[Meerkat]

Are you really being serious? France has a bigger increase in cases, yet deaths remain at a very low level. Surely that counters your "people dying in hospital corridors" rhetoric?

Can you categorically tell me why it is different this time? Otherwise I would tend to stay on the cautious side until you can, or we are sure it will stay different if cases keep rocketing.
Have you got figures for southern US ? I read that there was a precedent there for the rise in young cases eventually hitting the elderly and vulnerable with resultant death rises.

 

[trebor79]

Can you categorically tell me why it is different this time? Otherwise I would tend to stay on the cautious side until you can, or we are sure it will stay different if cases keep rocketing.

Matt Hancock cited on Monday that France and Spain have seen an increase in hospitalisations and death rate since these second waves, and that he's worried about the same happening here. The WHO data proves that to be a lie.
I don't think we need chapter and verse.on why it isn't killing lots of people. The fact is, it isn't killing lots of people.
Maybe it's become less dangerous. Maybe treatment has improved. Maybe a lot of the people it can kill got killed first time round, when it went through half the care homes in the country.
Hancock is correct when he says we are seeing the same trends and Spain and France, but he's a total liar to suggest their hospitals are overflowing and there are loads of people dying.