Covid : Infection rates v death rates and a possible second wave

[adc82140]

Only by a bit. 0.8% to 1.2%. The WHO considers an outbreak to be under control below 5%

 

[trebor79]

Only by a bit. 0.8% to 1.2%. The WHO considers an outbreak to be under control below 5%

And testing is more focused upon outbreak areas, so you'd expect and increase in positive tests.
False positives, detecting fragments of virus from recorded people may also be increasing.

 

[Crossover]

Of interest (but not necessarily surprising) are the historical corrections occurring, for example today's figure includes 10 cases from the 6th of April as well as a reduction of 7 on the 20th of June

How on earth does that work (particularly the addition of numerous test results from April)?!

We are now testing 250000 a day, if the Transport Secretary is to be believed. Last week we were testing 160000. That's your increase accounted for.

And testing is more focused upon outbreak areas, so you'd expect and increase in positive tests.
False positives, detecting fragments of virus from recorded people may also be increasing.

This is something which is of interest and I posted about earlier - it doesn't seem too clear on how many positives there in each area in comparison to the number of tests carried out

 

[Domh245]

How on earth does that work (particularly the addition of numerous test results from April)?!

I wish I knew! My suspicion is that where cases are being added it is down to poor reporting of the data as opposed to particularly long delays in processing a test. The removal of cases will likely be a result of 'de-duplication', where somebody has had multiple tests return positive but this does take a while to work though. It is also possible that some of the additions are de-de-duplication where a test result was removed unnecessarily and has had to be reinstated. The bulk of additions are from before mid June, before being 'cancelled out' by various removals before the bulk of the announced results in the last few days

 

[Bantamzen]

Spain apparently reports deaths in an odd way (can't remember in what specific way it is odd though, sorry!) so a one-day spike is unlikely to be alarming in itself.



There are some nice graphs (too many to post here) on this twitter post:

https://twitter.com/FatEmperor/status/1302929077054189569

In particular look at the Netherlands and France. Large increase in cases going back 7 or 8 weeks, little or no impact on ICU or deaths seen yet.

And if you look more closely at those graphs its clear that any lag from infection > illness > death doesn't account for the generally flat mortality rates versus the increase. In many countries rates have been rising for a couple of months yet mortality remains at similar levels. So unless there are a load of hidden patients hiding outside of healthcare systems yet to be discovered, an early conclusion would be that the increase in cases shows that the virus is less deadly, less impacting than originally touted.

I don't know if you saw it, but inside that Tweet is a video taken over the weekend of someone speaking about the situation. She says she is a GP, I presume in Northern Ireland, and has a lot of interesting things to say including about the email she says all GPs received to inform them that anyone sadly passing with a cough or a fever should be treated as Covid-positive.

Warning - This is amateur, mobile phone coverage so if you are listening using headphones there is some localised loud shouting on the audio, so you may want to adjust the volume down!. Also this is not my video, but taken from the Tweet feed linked above.

Dropbox

www.dropbox.com

The massive jump yesterday seems inexplicable though. It simply doesn't make any sense.

Unless this is the 'doubling every two or three days' exponential growth thing, in which case expect cases to top 5,000 within a day or two.

As mentioned upthread, a large increase in testing does mean there is a higher chance of catching more cases. However more cases does not necessarily mean more deaths, or even more hospitalisations as the data is starting to show. Remember in the early days more or less the only people being tested were those with severe symptoms, its only now that people with symptoms not requiring medical attention, and people with no symptoms that are now starting to show in the data. So unless there is a sudden, sharp increase in hospitalisations and deaths, then the conclusion becomes very simply. SARS-CoV-2 is starting to look a lot less dangerous than we thought (remember it was downgraded in the UK from High Consequence back in March, around the time of lockdown so even then doubts were starting to circulate), and with mortality from infection per capita rates coming down to the point that Covid-19 is in the large of a severe influenzas outbreak, it is time to start rethinking how we mitigate.

 

[MikeWM]

And if you look more closely at those graphs its clear that any lag from infection > illness > death doesn't account for the generally flat mortality rates versus the increase. In many countries rates have been rising for a couple of months yet mortality remains at similar levels. So unless there are a load of hidden patients hiding outside of healthcare systems yet to be discovered, an early conclusion would be that the increase in cases shows that the virus is less deadly, less impacting than originally touted.

Absolutely. Either it is less problematic now than it was (due to mutations, better treatment, etc.) or we were missing most infections early on (extremely likely) or both.

I don't know if you saw it, but inside that Tweet is a video taken over the weekend of someone speaking about the situation. She says she is a GP, I presume in Northern Ireland, and has a lot of interesting things to say including about the email she says all GPs received to inform them that anyone sadly passing with a cough or a fever should be treated as Covid-positive.

I think it has been fairly clear from the start that there has been overcounting of deaths. The question is how that offsets with potential undercounting from eg. excess deaths at home. I'd say as we get more figures from the ONS that the excess home deaths look largely due to presenting late, or not at all, due to the lockdown, rather than covid.

Remember the data that we can verify continues to throw up all manner of problems. The death figures, hospital figures and infection figures have all been shown to be wrong or skewed in various ways over the preceding month or so. There is little doubt that the data we can't directly verify is also riddled with issues.

So unless there is a sudden, sharp increase in hospitalisations and deaths, then the conclusion becomes very simply. SARS-CoV-2 is starting to look a lot less dangerous than we thought (remember it was downgraded in the UK from High Consequence back in March, around the time of lockdown so even then doubts were starting to circulate), and with mortality from infection per capita rates coming down to the point that Covid-19 is in the large of a severe influenzas outbreak, it is time to start rethinking how we mitigate.

Exactly. And anyone in authority who is saying anything different is wrong, and should be viewed with suspicion as to what they're really trying to achieve.

 

[Class 33]

Daily deaths today is 30. Which is a little surprising and concerning. Hmmm.... Don't think we've had deaths that high now for at least a few weeks. But remember today is a Tuesday, which is usually the day with the highest number of deaths. Hopefully back to single digit deaths for the rest of the week. Otherwise if the 7-day average does start rising significantly, then yes this is concerning.

I'm still not concerned about this "Horrifying second wave" some "experts" are forever predicting, become a reality yet.

 

[Dent]

Daily deaths today is 30. Which is a little surprising and concerning. Hmmm.... Don't think we've had deaths that high now for at least a few weeks. But remember today is a Tuesday, which is usually the day with the highest number of deaths. Hopefully back to single digit deaths for the rest of the week. Otherwise if the 7-day average does start rising significantly, then yes this is concerning.

I'm still not concerned about this "Horrifying second wave" some "experts" are forever predicting, become a reality yet.

Looking at the graph by date of death there is no spike, so most of those 30 must have been a result of very delayed reporting.

 

[Scrotnig]

I sense attempts by government and media to re-enter 'panic mode' today.

Amazing how the case figures dramatically jumped like that overnight. And just a couple of weeks before the original emergency legislation is due to expire, meaning the goverment need compelling resons to extend it. I'm sure that is entirely coincidental.

We are being played for fools.

 

[trebor79]

Looking at the graph by date of death there is no spike, so most of those 30 must have been a result of very delayed reporting.

Depressingly, I doubt the media will pick up on that nuance.
Still no uptick in hospitalisations either.

 

[adc82140]

Cases fell by 600 today. Also a slight drop in patients in hospital. Pushes our percentage rate per test back below 1

 

[Scrotnig]

Cases fell by 600 today. Also a slight drop in patients in hospital. Pushes our percentage rate per test back below 1

Northern Ireland cases not included yet though.

 

[adc82140]

Northern Ireland cases not included yet though.

That'll amount to no more than a hundred or so.

 

[Dent]

Could this spike be due to the new 20-minute test kits mentioned in https://www.theguardian.com/politic...ting-of-population-to-be-trialled-in-england?

If a new type of test has been rolled out in large numbers then a spike in confirmed cases is entirely predictable and says nothing about the level of infection.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Daily deaths today is 30. Which is a little surprising and concerning. Hmmm.... Don't think we've had deaths that high now for at least a few weeks. But remember today is a Tuesday, which is usually the day with the highest number of deaths. Hopefully back to single digit deaths for the rest of the week. Otherwise if the 7-day average does start rising significantly, then yes this is concerning.

I'm still not concerned about this "Horrifying second wave" some "experts" are forever predicting, become a reality yet.

I wonder what is going on here, as there is no logic in cases, admissions, ventilators and deaths all jumping at once. There is a lag of about a month along that chain.

I wonder have a load of unreported figures been found?

 

[Meerkat]

I sense attempts by government and media to re-enter 'panic mode' today.

Amazing how the case figures dramatically jumped like that overnight. And just a couple of weeks before the original emergency legislation is due to expire, meaning the goverment need compelling resons to extend it. I'm sure that is entirely coincidental.

We are being played for fools.

For any conspiracy theory my first question is always “why would they do that?”
Can you please explain to me what the Motivation would be for a libertarian PM, from a party usually accused of making money a higher priority than the health of the people, to start imposing restrictions on people that damage the economy and force them to spend lots of public money?
It just doesn’t add up.

 

[Scrotnig]

I wonder what is going on here, as there is no logic in cases, admissions, ventilators and deaths all jumping at once. There is a lag of about a month along that chain.

I wonder have a load of unreported figures been found?

The emergency laws are due to expire on 26th September or thereabouts. We need to get everyone scared again to justify extending them.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 8 Sep 2020 ==

For any conspiracy theory my first question is always “why would they do that?”
Can you please explain to me what the Motivation would be for a libertarian PM, from a party usually accused of making money a higher priority than the health of the people, to start imposing restrictions on people that damage the economy and force them to spend lots of public money?
It just doesn’t add up.

This would be the libertarian PM that ordered not one, not two, but THREE water cannons with the express intention of using them on British subjects.

 

[DB]

The emergency laws are due to expire on 26th September or thereabouts. We need to get everyone scared again to justify extending them.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 8 Sep 2020 ==


This would be the libertarian PM that ordered not one, not two, but THREE water cannons with the express intention of using them on British subjects.

Yes, that and quite probably wanting this to carry on until the new year to mask what a complete mess they have made of Brexit.

 

[bramling]

I wonder what is going on here, as there is no logic in cases, admissions, ventilators and deaths all jumping at once. There is a lag of about a month along that chain.

I wonder have a load of unreported figures been found?

The thing that’s astounding is that we should be here wondering what’s gone on, surely the powers that be should know?

If there’s been an element of catch up (which is presumably quite plausible given we’ve just had a bank holiday weekend plus the ending of the summer holiday season) then surely that should be known, and thus made clear when the figures are released?

Letting the media do their own analysis is hardly professional.

 

[Meerkat]

Yes, that and quite probably wanting this to carry on until the new year to mask what a complete mess they have made of Brexit.

Wow, it’s going really tinfoil hat now!
It’s more likely that the Tories would love to open up everything and declare victory and show how in control they are.

 

[DB]

Wow, it’s going really tinfoil hat now!
It’s more likely that the Tories would love to open up everything and declare victory and show how in control they are.

No, just realism - please do explain their current stance in some other way, since you clearly know better!

 

[Meerkat]

No, just realism - please do explain their current stance in some other way, since you clearly know better!

Realism needs facts.
Their current position is a cautious stance trying to avoid killing lots of the electorate. It’s cautious because there is a huge shortage of solid scientific knowledge about the disease, and previous evidence that if you lose control it’s very hard to get control back.
I don’t necessarily agree with all of the policies, but for a conspiracy policy to be believable you have to explain why they would do it and what they would gain.

 

[Yew]

Realism needs facts.
Their current position is a cautious stance trying to avoid killing lots of the electorate. It’s cautious because there is a huge shortage of solid scientific knowledge about the disease, and previous evidence that if you lose control it’s very hard to get control back.
I don’t necessarily agree with all of the policies, but for a conspiracy policy to be believable you have to explain why they would do it and what they would gain.

Three or six months ago, and I may have agreed, but we know much more about this virus now, as it appears to be much less dangerous than we feared.

 

[DB]

because there is a huge shortage of solid scientific knowledge about the disease,

Except that's not true - there is actually a lot of knowledge about it now, including on how to treat it. Yes, some things are sitll unknown but it's simply not correct to claim that there is a 'huge shortage' of knowledge.

As to why they would drag it on, I would have thought that was fairly self-evident but as it clearly needs explaining:
I think we can be sure that a no-deal Brexit (as is looking increasingly likely) would have a major negative economic impact. However, if the Deadly Killer Virus situation is still very much live at the time, they already have something out of their control which can be blamed, and thereby avoid a lot of the criticism which would come their way. Without this virus, it is far from inconceivable that a disastrous Brexit could have caused the government to collapse. With the virus, they can divert attention and claim that the virus is the principal cause of a tanking economy. And of course the virus (or rather, the government response to it) will be a big factor, and it will be very difficult to prove where the balance lies between that and Brexit.

 

[takno]

Realism needs facts.
Their current position is a cautious stance trying to avoid killing lots of the electorate. It’s cautious because there is a huge shortage of solid scientific knowledge about the disease, and previous evidence that if you lose control it’s very hard to get control back.
I don’t necessarily agree with all of the policies, but for a conspiracy policy to be believable you have to explain why they would do it and what they would gain.

It's not cautious. Allowing the amount of economic and social damage that is being caused is incredibly incautious, and certainly the most dangerous thing any government in the UK has done since the second world war.

 

[Bantamzen]

For any conspiracy theory my first question is always “why would they do that?”
Can you please explain to me what the Motivation would be for a libertarian PM, from a party usually accused of making money a higher priority than the health of the people, to start imposing restrictions on people that damage the economy and force them to spend lots of public money?
It just doesn’t add up.

Sorry, we are talking about our government here right? The same government that despite being instructed to broker a deal with the EU over Brexit, have now come out and said a no deal scenario would be a good one? Because whilst I don't want to bring Brexit in, it seems rather too convenient that no sudden had they said that, there's a handy covid-spike to distract. Remember BoJo & Co don't run the show, Mr Dominique "Should Have Gone To Durham Specsavers" Cummings is at the helm. Facts don't matter any more, hell they barely did before, now only spin, distraction & most of all deflection.

It doesn't take long to start to join up the dots....

 

[87electric]

The World Bank with their financial supports to Countries have implemented a 5 year plan (Covid-19 Strategic Preparedness and Response Program) due to end March 2025. Page 1 of the 60 page document states this.
Looks like we are in for a long haul.

http://documents1.worldbank.org/curated/en/993371585947965984/pdf/World-COVID-19-Strategic-Preparedness-and-Response-Project.pdf

 

[RomeoCharlie71]

That'll amount to no more than a hundred or so.

If I'm reading the NI data correctly its 40. The UK dashboard hasn't been updated yet.

 

[adc82140]

In other news about 80 people died today of pneumonia caused by viruses other than Covid.

 

[Meerkat]

Three or six months ago, and I may have agreed, but we know much more about this virus now, as it appears to be much less dangerous than we feared.

”Appears to be” is great when you aren’t the one with the responsibility....and ’less dangerous’ isn’t the same as ‘not dangerous’. In actual fact I disagree with you - I am not seeing the evidence that Covid isn’t dangerous, just because it was suppressed for a while. However I am not on the ‘lockdown til vaccine’ train, I broadly agree with the reopening strategy.

Except that's not true - there is actually a lot of knowledge about it now, including on how to treat it. Yes, some things are sitll unknown but it's simply not correct to claim that there is a 'huge shortage' of knowledge.

As to why they would drag it on, I would have thought that was fairly self-evident but as it clearly needs explaining:
I think we can be sure that a no-deal Brexit (as is looking increasingly likely) would have a major negative economic impact. However, if the Deadly Killer Virus situation is still very much live at the time, they already have something out of their control which can be blamed, and thereby avoid a lot of the criticism which would come their way. Without this virus, it is far from inconceivable that a disastrous Brexit could have caused the government to collapse. With the virus, they can divert attention and claim that the virus is the principal cause of a tanking economy. And of course the virus (or rather, the government response to it) will be a big factor, and it will be very difficult to prove where the balance lies between that and Brexit.

That just doesn’t work when they are getting slaughtered by both sides - some say they didn’t lockdown early enough and shouldn’t be opening up, and others say they are too restrictive. And if Brexit is a disaster the international comparisons will make that very clear.

It's not cautious. Allowing the amount of economic and social damage that is being caused is incredibly incautious, and certainly the most dangerous thing any government in the UK has done since the second world war.

It’s still far less economically dangerous than a healthcare collapse inevitably leading to a second lockdown would be.